A For-Profit Mindset for Nonprofit Success | Tolu Oyekan | TED

翻译人员: Ying Ren 校对人员: Yan Li Xiao

So I'd like to ask you all a question

我想向你们提一个问题。

that I've pondered for these past few years.

这个问题已经在我脑海盘旋数年了。

Why is it that for-profit organizations

为什么营利性组织

and nonprofits,

和非营利性组织，

or those that work in the development space,

或是那些发展中地区的组织，

are quite different with the type of impact that they have?

在影响力上差异极大呢？

I mean, in theory, they should be similar, right?

理论上， 他们应该是几乎一样的，不是吗？

They both have access to super-talented individuals.

他们都能接触到才华横溢的个体。

Should it matter that you are working on affordable housing

影响力的差异与建设经济适用房

or trying to build a multi-million dollar condo building?

或是建立价值百万的公寓豪宅有关吗？

I don't think it should.

我不认为应该有关。

But if I took a poll in this room and asked you all to take a guess

但如果我在此开展投票， 并邀请你们来猜测

on which of these buildings will be completed first,

究竟是哪一类建筑物会更早竣工，

I'm fairly certain that we would all agree it's not the affordable housing.

我相当肯定， 大部分人都不会投给经济适用房。

Right?

对吧？

And you may go, “Well, Tolu, isn’t it about the money?

你也许会说： “嘿，Tolu，这不就是钱的原因吗”

One of these has access to more money than the other."

其中一个能比另一个赚到更多钱。”

And I think there's truth to that,

这的确是事实。

but I believe it goes much deeper than that.

但我认为还有更深层的原因。

I live in Nigeria now, before I moved back to Nigeria,

我现在住在尼日利亚， 在我搬回来之前，

I actually spent the bulk of my career working in development markets

我大部分的职业生涯都在为 在发展中市场工作

in the for-profit sector, right?

属于营利部门，对吧？

In the for-profit sector,

在营利部门，

we are held accountable every year by investors

我们每年都需要对投资者负责，

to ensure that the benefits of the activities

确保我们的全年投资活动

that we invested in throughout the year

所带来的收益

far outweigh the investments in those activities.

能够远远超过 我们对这些活动所花费的投资。

This annual cadence of accountability

这种每年一次的问责节奏

required that everything that we did

要求我们所做的每一件事情

was striving toward increased profitability.

都是为了争取不断增长的利润。

This annual cadence of accountability

这种每年一次的问责节奏

created such a high sense of urgency in everything that we did.

让我们做的每件事情 都具有高度紧迫感。

And so we leveraged data analytics,

为此，我们利用数据分析，

evidence-based tools to ensure that we're able to hit those goals fast.

事实评估等工具 去确保我们能快速实现目标。

In the development space,

而在发展中地区，

where I spend the bulk of my time these days,

也就是我近来花费大量时间的地方，

the culture appears quite different.

这里的习惯相当不同。

We don't seem to operate with the same sense of urgency.

我们似乎没有相似的紧迫感。

The work we are doing now is arguably more meaningful, right?

哪怕我们现在所做的工作 可以说是更有意义的，不是吗？

We are trying to solve problems

我们试图解决问题，

such as increasing financial access to those who currently don't have it.

比如为现在缺乏 资金的人提供金融支持。

We're trying to solve problems that include education access,

我们也在试图解决包括教育资源， 能源供给

energy access.

在内的诸多问题。

And, in fact, increasingly we are trying to help people who are vulnerable

事实上，我们越来越多的试图 去帮助那些脆弱的人

build resilience to climate change.

去建立对气候变化的适应力。

These challenges are quite significant

这些挑战都十分重要，

and require that we do things differently.

并要求我们用不同的方式去处理事情。

In Africa, we have a proverb which states that if you want to go fast, go alone.

在非洲， 我们有一句谚语：快者独行。

If you want to go far, go together.

谋长者善合力。

But what happens when trying to solve a problem

但当我们想解决问题的时候， 会发生什么呢？

like increasing financial access

比如说提供普惠金融

requires that you go both fast and far?

这即要求你走快，又要求走远的呢？

I believe that we need to do development differently.

我相信我们需要一种不同的发展模式。

We need to include the profit motive and for-profit approaches

需要结合非营利性的动机 和营利性的方法

into the way that we do development.

将其共同投入我们的发展中。

So let me walk you through an example

让我举个例子吧，

of how we experimented with this in Nigeria.

一个我在尼日利亚实践过的例子。

We're trying to expand financial access in Nigeria.

我们试图在尼日利亚扩展金融服务。

For those who don't know,

如果你不了解，

financial access is an individual's ability

金融服务包括一个个体

to get access to insurance

去获取保险、

or loans or build savings.

贷款或者是存款的能力。

A lot of research has shown, in fact,

实际上，很多调查表明

that a lot of these development activities that we have

许多发展中地区需要进行的活动

require financial access as a key enabler.

都需要金融服务作为关键基础。

A key enabler.

这是一个至关重要的基础。

However, when you look in Africa,

然而，在非洲，

we are lagging behind the rest of the world

就金融服务而言，

in terms of financial access.

我们被世界远远落在后面。

In fact, in sub-Saharan Africa,

事实上，在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区，

only about 55 percent of all adults have access to financial services.

只有 55% 左右的成年人 能获得金融服务。

A country like Nigeria, where I live,

在我所居住的地方，在尼日利亚，

you have more adults in Nigeria

无法获得金融服务的

that do not have access to financial services

成年人比例则会更高，

than the entire population of Canada.

总数甚至会超过整个加拿大人口。

Think about that.

想想这些。

More individuals in Nigeria do not have access to financial services

尼日利亚无法获得金融服务的人数

than the entire population of Canada.

比整个加拿大的人口都要多。

Now, I mean, this is not for a lack of trying.

如今，我是说， 这并不是缺乏尝试的原因。

We've been working on this issue for a while.

针对这个问题， 我们已经工作了一段时间。

And I think one of the reasons the issue persists

我认为这个问题持续存在的原因之一

is because we were trying to solve the problem

正是因为我们试图去解决这个问题

in the same way we have tried to do it in developed markets,

以我们曾经 在发达市场尝试过的相同方式

trying to build bank branches and ATMs everywhere.

试图在每一处 都建立银行分行和 ATM 机器。

But this is so expensive and capital-intensive and time-intensive,

但是，这太贵、 既需要资本、也需要时间，

which we cannot afford.

我们负担不起。

But there's a cheaper, scalable option.

但有一个更便宜、可具扩展的方式—

Agent banking.

代理银行。

With agent banking,

采用代理银行，

a financial institution can hire an individual or a retailer

金融组织可以雇佣个人或者零售商

to provide financial services to the community on their behalf.

授权他们对社区提供金融服务。

So you have ...

所以你就可能拥有…

a grocery retailer, right?

比如一个果蔬零售商，对吗？

She gets cash from selling foodstuff to her customers,

通过售卖食品，她从顾客处获得现金，

and she can play the role of a human ATM, if you will,

如果你想， 她也可以提供 ATM 的服务，

connecting to the branch online

一边连接起线上的分行，

and able to dispense cash to her customers

一边可以向顾客分发现金，

and other financial services.

以及提供其他金融服务。

And unlike bank branches and ATMs,

与银行分行和 ATM 机不同，

you can deploy an agent within about a day.

你可以在一天之内 就完成对代理人的部署。

So you can literally start the day

可以实现

with the community without financial access

早上时社区还没有任何金融服务，

and at the end of the day with an agent

晚上的时候就有了一位代理人

provides financial access to that community.

为社区提供着金融服务。

We know agent banking works.

无疑，代理人银行是有效的。

And in fact, in Nigeria, we estimate that over these past three years

实际上，在尼日利亚， 通过过去三年的努力，

we've deployed about 850,000 of these agents.

我们大约授权了 850，000 位代理人。

But the problem persists.

然而，问题依旧存在。

After all of this work, the problem persist.

在努力工作之后，问题依旧存在着。

In Nigeria, we still estimate that less than 50 percent, in fact,

事实上，我们估计，尼日利亚 能够接触金融服务的人，依旧低于 50%，

of adults still have access, despite all of this work,

哪怕我们尝试了所有的方法，

and this has persisted for over a decade.

并且，这个比例 已经有一段时间没有变过了。

So a few colleagues and I decided to investigate this

因此，我和一些同事决心调查原因，

to try to understand why is it that after all this work,

我们想知道， 为什么在投入大量工作之后，

we're still struggling with this.

我们依旧为此困扰不已。

And so we teamed up with nonprofit organizations

我们和非盈利组织，

and for-profit organizations to understand,

还有盈利性组织一起进行团队调研，

after hundreds of thousands of agents,

去研究为什么 在拥有成百上千的代理人之后，

why does this problem persist.

这个问题却仍然存在。

And we discovered two important problems.

我们发现了至关重要的两点。

One is, we in fact, are not deploying these agents into the right places.

第一，我们事实上， 并没有在合适的地域进行代理人授权。

The rural parts and northern parts of Nigeria

最迫切需要代理人帮助的地区

most desperately needed these agents,

分布在尼日利亚北部的偏远乡村，

but the deployment tended to be in the urban south.

然而，大部分代理人 却在较为城市化的南部。

And when we deployed them,

当我们雇佣代理人时，

we tended to also deploy overlapping agents.

我们无意中雇用了 很多区域重叠的代理人。

What does that mean?

这意味着什么呢？

Think of this as you are trying to, you know,

想象一下吧，

you deploy 50 ATMs in a New York City block.

你在纽约市的街区 放置了 50 个 ATM 机。

What's the point of that?

这有什么意义呢？

In fact, if you had used data analytics, perhaps we would have done this properly.

事实上，如果有借助数据分析的话， 或者我们早就能够正确的完成这件事。

The second problem we observed was that agents, in fact,

第二件我们观察到重要的发现， 是关于代理人的，

were not staying around for the long haul.

他们往往并不会乐意 长期进行这份工作。

So you placed this agent,

因此，你授权了一位代理人，

but the average agent only remained operational for about three months.

但是平均来看， 一位代理人的有效时间只有 3 个月。

Between the start-up cost

在创业开销

and the recurring cost required to sustain the business,

以及维持业务的日常花费之中，

they needed a high volume of transactions, of business,

代理人需要业务高速流转

to be able to remain profitable and remain in business.

才能够获得收益，并且持续发展业务。

But they didn't really know how to do that.

然而，他们并不了解应该如何去做。

So we're working hard,

结果就是，我们努力工作，

but we're not placing them correctly and they're not profitable,

但没有把代理人放在合适的地方， 他们也没有获得收益，

so we're not moving the needle at all.

因此，我们并能有效地解决问题。

So with this understanding of the problem,

在理解这个问题之后，

we wanted to design profitable or viable agent banking business.

我们想要设计一套可盈利的、 可行的代理人银行商业。

And to do this,

为了实现目标，

we did a compare and contrast

我们进行了对比和比较

between agents that remained around for the long haul

去了解那些会长期 停留在一个地点的代理人

versus those that only left after a short period

和短暂几日就匆匆离去的代理人之间

to understand the differences between them.

究竟存在哪些差异。

We also literally went across the country

我们也横跨了整个国家

to understand the differences of our agents,

以便更好的了解我们代理人中的差异，

who worked across the country,

他们分布于全国各地，

and understand how money moved in the respective communities.

这也帮助我们理解， 金钱是如何在具有代表性的社区流动。

And with this understanding,

带着这些理解，

we built our profitable agent banking model.

我们建立了我们的 可盈利的代理人银行模型。

So what are those things, what are the key elements

经历了这么多事情之后， 哪些是关键要去？

to ensure that an agent is viable and remains around for the long haul?

可以能够确保代理人可获得收益， 同时也能在某地长留？

One is, you need to make sure that you have about 500 adults.

首先，你必须确认 你有 500 位成人用户。

You need about 500 adults in the community

在一个社区中， 必须有 500 位成年人

to support one of these agents.

来支持一位代理人展开业务。

So when you are deploying overlapping agents,

因此，当你授权的 代理人区域出现了重叠，

that can be counterproductive.

就会造成效率的焦虑。

Another thing is, even though these agents, in fact,

其次，哪怕这些代理人

are leveraging the internet connections to financial institutions online,

依托于网络和线上的 金融机构保持联系，

they still needed access to cash for the community.

他们依旧需要现金 来满足社区内的需求。

Cash was still very important.

所以现金依旧是至关重要的。

And then, agent banking is not a full-time business.

再次，代理人银行 不是一个全职的商业模式，

It's a side hustle.

而是一种额外的收入。

So you can be a bartender,

因此你可能是酒吧的男招待，

you can be a grocery retailer,

可能是售卖果蔬的小贩，

you could be a hairdresser, anything, really,

也可能是理发师， 实际上，任何职业都有可能

and offer agent banking as an add-on to make that viable.

代理人银行作为额外的副业， 来增加他们的收入。

So we felt good that we understood how to design it.

我们终于想通如何设计模式时， 十分喜悦。

So now we wanted to estimate

那么现在，我们想要估算一下

how many of these agents can we put across the country

我们在尼日利亚全国 需要授权多少位代理人

to ensure that every Nigerian has access to financial services,

来确保每一位尼日利亚人 都能获得金融服务？

universal access.

所有人都获得，

To do this, it's not a simple task, involves a lot of data.

想要实现这个目标， 并不是一件容易的事情，需要大量的数据。

So we built an analytic engine, called Geofin, to do this.

所以我们创造了一台 叫做 Geofin 的分析机器来帮助我们。

With Geofin, you can look across Nigeria, any part of the country,

通过 Geofin，你可以查看 尼日利亚全部的任何一个区域，

and zoom in to understand the current level of financial access,

并且能够放大 去观测当前金融服务的渗透率，

as well as how many of these agents that we talk about

也包括需要多少代理人

you need to deploy to get to universal coverage.

才能在范围上实现全域覆盖。

So if you look down south in Nigeria, in a place called Bayelsa,

如果你看向尼日利亚南部， 这里有着巴耶尔萨州，

in Bayelsa we have high level of financial access.

在巴耶尔萨州， 金融服务的渗透率相当高。

About 85 percent of adults in Bayelsa have access to financial services.

大约有 85% 的巴耶尔萨成年人 能够获取到金融服务。

And so you would only need to deploy about 2,000 more agents

你也只需要再雇佣 2,000 名代理人

to get to universal coverage.

就能实现全域覆盖的目标。

Up north, in Yobe though, in the northeast of Nigeria,

往上是北部， 然而在位于尼日利亚东北部的约贝，

you find that about 25 percent,

比例仅为 25%，

only about 25 percent of adults

意味着仅有 25% 的成年人

actually have access to financial services.

能够获得金融服务。

And so there you need upwards of 8,000 agents

因此在这里， 你需要至多 8000 位代理人

to get to universal coverage.

来提供普遍覆盖。

Quite a beautiful tool that allows us to sort of understand

相当美丽的工具， 可以帮助用非常细微的方式

and try to solve the problem in a very nuanced way.

去理解并协助解决这个问题。

So all of this was research and analytics.

所有的基础都是调查和分析而已。

What did we find?

我们发现了什么？

What was the real impact of all of this?

这么做真正的影响又在哪里？

So you remember I had said

你或许记得我曾经提到

in Nigeria so far we've deployed about 850,000 agents?

至今为止，在尼日利亚我们已经雇佣了 约 850,000 位代理人

Well, with this approach,

实际上，采用这种分析，

we discovered that we only really need about 275,000 more agents

我们发现 我们只需要大约 275,000 代理人

to get to universal coverage.

就足以完成全域覆盖。

Now, the bulk of these agents were not profitable.

如今，大部分的代理人并没有盈利。

In fact, about 90 percent of them are not profitable.

事实上， 约有 90% 的代理人是不盈利的。

But that's OK.

但这也问题不大。

The work they are doing is still quite important.

他们所做的工作依旧相当重要的。

And so we need to support them with subsidies and grants

因此，我们需要提供补助去支持他们

to ensure that they can stay around and support their communities.

来确保他们会持续事业， 支持他们所在的社区。

However, about 27,000 of these agents will be profitable.

约有 27,000 名 代理人最终会盈利。

We think of them as the high-impact agents.

我们把他们视为高影响代理人。

And what do they do?

他们将会做些什么呢？

These agents will move the needle significantly.

这部分代理人将会显著地解决问题。

So in Nigeria today, we estimate that only about 45 percent of adults

如今，我们估计 仅有 45% 的尼日利亚成年人

have access to financial services.

能够获得金融服务。

These 27,000, roughly, agents

那 27,000 位代理人

will move the needle from about 45 percent today to 80 percent.

将会协助我们把 45% 提升到 80%。

And given how fast you can deploy them,

考虑到授权代理人的效率极高，

we estimate that this will occur within 24 months or less.

我们预测仅需花费至多 24 个月。

This is the power of including the profit motive in development work.

这就是将盈利性动机 结合到发展中事业的力量。

That we can move the needle so fast

他能帮助我们快速解决问题，

for a problem that has remained intractable for so long.

快速解决一个 多年以来都难以处理的问题。

Now, financial access is not the only challenge we have.

现在，金融服务 并不是我们面临的唯一挑战。

What if we took this same mindset to energy access,

如果我们以同样的思维方式， 去处理能源供给，

where instead of just deploying solar in rural areas alone,

而不是仅仅在偏远地区使用太阳能，

we could think about helping entrepreneurs to build viable urban solar businesses?

我们是否可以考虑帮助创业者 来建立可行的城市太阳能企业？

Or we can also deploy this approach to education access,

或者我们也可以 在教育资源上应用这种方法，

where, instead of just deploying schools widely,

而不仅仅是粗犷地设立学校，

we'll work with local community entrepreneurs to build community schools

我们将会和当地的社区 及小企业主建立社区学校

that are profitable and viable for a long period of time.

使他们能够在长期内获得盈利。

I believe that when we combine these nonprofit and for-profit approaches,

我相信当我们 能结合营利性和非营利性途径时，

when we include the profit motive in the development work that we do,

例如，当我们在 发展区域项目结合盈利动机时，

we can go fast and far together

我们可以一起走得更快，更远，

to address these development challenges

去更好地解决发展挑战，

and change the world for the better.

使世界变得更加美好。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）