A Menu of Foods We Might Lose Forever | Sam Kass | TED

翻译人员: Alvin Lee 校对人员: Bruce Wang

Hello, everybody.

大家好。

I am here to welcome you to the Last Supper.

今天我将带大家享用“最后的晚餐”。

This menu has been put together with ingredients

根据专家和模型预测，

that experts and models predict

这份菜单上所用的原料，

will not be around for our kids and our grandkids.

我们的子孙后代已经无法享用了。

And you'll see that it's many of the foods that we that we hold dear.

这中间有很多是我们喜爱的食物。

Now I started off my career as a chef and then into policy

我之前是一名厨师， 之后进入了政界，

and now working on technology and innovation,

目前在技术和创新领域工作，

trying to build some of the solutions for the future.

努力为未来构建一些解决方案。

I first came up with this menu idea in 2015,

这个菜单的主意 最初成型于 2015 年，

大约在巴黎气候大会期间。

around COP21 in Paris.

And the point of this menu is not to depress you.

这份菜单的目的 不是要搞得大家难过。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

It's not to, you know, make you feel bad.

不是要让你们难受。

It's to really talk about what's at stake when we say the words climate change.

而是想搞清楚，当我们说“气候变化” 的时候，我们究竟在说什么。

What do the words climate change actually mean?

“气候变化”到底是什么意思？

What does two degrees' warming actually mean?

升温 2 度到底意味着什么？

I'm from Chicago,

我是个芝加哥人，

like, two degrees' warming, that sounds good.

对我而言， 升温 2 度还挺不错的。

I'm like, "Let's warm it up a little bit, what about five?"

我会觉得，“再暖和一点也没事， 不如升高个 5 度吧？”

And I think we've really failed to connect what's truly at stake

我认为，我们如今讨论问题的时候，

when we talk about the issues that we've been discussing today.

经常没有谈到点子上。

So let's get into it.

我们开始吧。

Let's start with the hors d'oeuvres, those appetizers.

首先是开胃菜。

Let's turn to fruit.

我们从水果开始。

Turns out that trees are really having a tough time.

原来果树这些年真是过得艰难。

And this includes nuts and stone fruit,

包括坚果和核果，

like pistachios and almonds or peaches.

比如开心果、杏仁或者桃子。

Last year, we lost 95 percent of the Georgia peach crop.

去年，乔治亚州的桃子 减产了 95%。

95 percent.

整整 95%。

And when you start to look at the models,

如果你去看模型，

and how our environment is changing in our lifetimes,

看看环境在我们有生之年的变化，

I don't believe we'll be growing peaches in Georgia at all.

我感觉我们再也没法 在乔治亚州种出桃子了。

Let's talk about the wheat in your bread or the rice in your salad,

接下来是面包里的小麦， 或者沙拉里的谷物，

or the chickpeas in one of the dishes --

或者某一道菜里面的鹰嘴豆——

some of the core commodities, the core staples that feed the world.

这些养活世界的 核心商品、核心主食。

But in the United States,

在美国，

the models show that about for every one degree of warming,

模型显示，每升温 1 度，

we'll lose about 7.5 percent yield.

我们就会减产 7.5%。

We'll decline about 7.5 percent, year over year.

我们会每年减产 7.5%， 年复一年。

That's only part of the story.

这还不止。

The other challenge is right now, on a global basis,

在全球范围内， 另一大挑战迫在眉睫，

15 percent of the world's wheat

全球 15%的小麦

is produced in persistent drought conditions.

是在持续干旱的条件下生产的。

But if and when we hit that two degrees,

如果升温到达 2 度，

60 percent will be produced in persistent drought conditions.

这个比例将上升到 60%。

So not only are we going to see a precipitous decline of yields over time,

因此随着时间推移， 产量会急剧下降，

we're going to see much more frequent disruptions

在某些特定区域， 我们还将看到粮食

and complete collapses of harvest in certain regions.

更加频繁的停产， 甚至彻底颗粒无收。

It is impossible to comprehend the economic upheaval

很难想象 当这些核心商品减产时，

as we start to see these core commodities decline,

会引发多大的经济动荡，

the food insecurity and malnutrition that will result of this,

以及由此造成的 粮食危机和营养不良，

and the political instability of forced migration and conflict over resource

以及气候引起的养活世界大部分人口 的核心食物减产

as these core foods that feed most of the world

而导致的移民问题和资源冲突

start to decline because of climate.

所带来的政治不稳定。

下面来看看你们的主菜，三文鱼。

So let's go to your main course, let's go to salmon.

Salmon are also having a really tough time.

三文鱼的日子也不好过。

We all know their epic journeys up rivers to spawn.

我们都知道它们 逆流而上的洄游旅程。

And those rivers are not only warming

这些河流不仅升温了，

but we're starting to see reduced flows into them because of reduced snowpack.

而且汇入河流的水量， 因为积雪的减少也在减少。

And by about 2050,

大约到 2050 年，

the models show that we will lose about half of that flow into those rivers

模型显示，由于积雪减少， 汇入这些河流的支流

because of reduced snowpack,

将减少差不多一半，

making that journey for those fry back to the ocean nearly impossible.

使得这些鱼苗几乎不可能游回大海。

But there's also massive heat waves that are flowing through our oceans now.

同时海洋里也有 巨大的热浪四处横行。

Those heat waves lower the oxygen levels

这些热浪降低了海水的含氧量，

and make the environment really unsuitable for many of these life-forms.

让环境变得不适宜 很多生命形态生存。

This past year, just a few weeks ago,

过去一年，就在几周前，

California announced it had closed the entire commercial fishing

加利福尼亚州宣布 关闭整个州，整条海岸线

for the whole state, the whole coast,

的商业捕鱼作业，

because, essentially, there weren't any fish to fish.

因为根本就无鱼可捕。

This is not some far-out future challenge.

这不是什么发生在 遥不可及的未来的挑战。

Now I wish I could tell you, you know,

我真希望我能告诉你，

you're still going to have your dessert and everything is fine,

你们还能享用你们的甜点， 一切都很好，

but I'm sorry, I have to come for your chocolate, too.

但很抱歉，巧克力也危在旦夕。

And in some ways, chocolate is faring the worst.

在某些方面，巧克力是最惨的。

You've probably never had a bite of chocolate

你所吃的每一口巧克力

that wasn't grown within about 10 degrees of the equator

都是由赤道两侧 纬度 10 度内的小农场主，

by smallholder farmers.

种植出来的。

And there is not a single model that shows that, if and when we hit two degrees,

所有的模型预测都显示， 当我们升温 2 度后，

that any of that region will be suitable for chocolate production.

没有任何区域还适合生产巧克力。

It will be too dry and too hot.

那里将变得又干又热。

That means those trees are going to have to walk and move.

除非那些树能自行搬家离开。

They're not very good at that.

但搬家对它们来说也太难了。

And the communities that that will affect

受影响的将是那些没有资源

are ones that do not have the resources to weather storms of that nature.

应对这些灾难的社区。

The economic and social upheaval that will come from those kind of changes

由此带来的经济和社会动荡

is profound.

将会是巨大的。

And again, this year, not in 2040 or 2050,

同样的，就在今年， 而不是遥远的 2040, 2050 年，

chocolate prices are up by 50 percent,

巧克力的价格上涨了 50%，

because those production ecosystems have been hammered by drought

因为产地的生态系统 受到干旱和极端天气

的轮番重击。

and extreme weather.

50%，就在今年。

50 percent, this year.

I’m going to give you one more.

再给你们举个例子。

And this is where, like, I just don't even know what to do.

这是让我感到最无能为力的。

I'm ready to do anything to solve the problem.

要是能解决它，我愿意付出一切。

Raise your hand if you’ve had a cup of coffee today or a cup of tea.

今天有喝过一杯咖啡 或者茶的，举一下手。

还有人没喝的，很遗憾，真的。

Oh, yeah. I'm sorry, I know.

Let's say, how many of you had two cups?

好，接下来， 有没有喝了 2 杯的？

Three?

3 杯？

Yeah, four?

4 杯？

Alright, guys, we should talk,

好吧朋友们，我们得谈谈，

because I'm a little worried about you.

我有点担心你们。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Even for me, and I'm a real coffee person,

即便是我，我是个咖啡狂人，

that's a little extreme.

那也有点多了。

I'm not going to ask five, because then --

5 杯我都不想问了，因为——

Yeah, exactly.

对，是的。

I could see it in your face, sir.

我能看出来你喝了 5 杯，先生。

(Laughs)

（笑声）

So, yeah, coffee too.

是的，咖啡也是。

The IDB predicts that, just similar to wine,

美洲开发银行预测， 就像葡萄酒一样，

if and when we hit two degrees,

如果升温 2 度，

about half of the regions that are currently growing coffee

目前的咖啡产区约有一半

will no longer be suitable for coffee production.

将不再适合生产咖啡。

About 75 of the 124 wild varieties of coffee

124 种野生咖啡种中，

are on the verge of extinction right now,

大约有 75 种濒临灭绝，

and that's really a problem,

这是个大问题，

because much of the genetic material that we will need

因为要适应多变的气候，

to try to produce hybrid varieties

我们需要生产杂交品种，

that could thrive in much more volatile climate

而杂交所需要的基因材料，

are going to be lost.

大部分将会消失。

But the point here is not to depress you or to scare you, it's not.

今天说这些的目的不是 让大家沮丧或者吓唬大家，

No, it's not.

不是的。

It's to try to make an emotional connection in a way that only food can,

而是想创建一种只有食物 才能提供的情感连接，

to understand really what's at stake

这样我们在进行对话的时候，

when we're having these conversations.

才能理解什么是危在旦夕的。

And I believe what's at stake is, fundamentally, our way of life

我认为，从根本上来讲， 危在旦夕的

是我们在地球上的生活方式。

on planet Earth.

It's our identities,

是我们作为个人

both as individuals and as communities and cultures.

以及作为群体和文化的身份认同。

It’s the vibrancy of our country and of the world.

是我们国家和世界的生机。

And fundamentally, as a father of two young boys aged six and five,

我有 2 个儿子， 一个 5 岁，一个 6 岁。

Cy and Rafa,

赛和拉法，

it is fundamentally our ability

本质上来说，

to pass to the next generation a better life than we were given,

让下一代生活得更好 是我们的能力，

a life that is as rich and delicious

我们的生活曾经多么富足而美味，

as the one we've been lucky enough to have.

我们非常幸运能得到它。

That is truly at stake now.

但它如今危在旦夕。

The good news is, on our plates really does hold

好消息是，在我们盘子里

some of the biggest both problems

确实装着一些最严重的问题，

but also potential to solve these challenges

但是也装着能解决

of anywhere that we have.

世界各地各种挑战的潜力。

And that's the part that gives me a ton of hope.

而这给了我巨大的希望。

We know food is a giant driver

我们知道，食物是造成

of environmental and climate-change damage.

环境和气候变化损失的巨大推动力。

It's the number-one driver of biodiversity loss, by a lot,

是生物多样性损失 的第一推动力，

number-one driver of deforestation and land-use change,

是森林砍伐和土地用途改变的 第一推动力，

number-one use of the world's dwindling freshwater.

是世界淡水资源消耗的头号大户。

70 percent of our water goes into how we feed ourselves.

70% 的水都用来养活我们。

And it's the number-two driver of greenhouse-gas emissions, globally.

是全球第二大温室气体排放来源。

Now unlike energy and mobility and transportation,

不像能源和交通运输，

where we can see a future where that curve is going to bend,

在可见的未来，它们的 （增长）曲线已经放缓，

food and agriculture is going straight up,

而食品和农业还会一直上升，

with absolutely no end in sight.

完全看不到尽头。

So we must figure out how to reduce the negative impacts

因此我们要搞清楚， 如何减少这个系统

the system is having on our planet.

带来的负面影响。

Full stop.

要完全停止。

The second big part of the work that we collectively have to do

这项联合工作的第二大部分

is around adaptation and resilience,

是关于适应和韧性，

a part that we are simply entirely unprepared to deal with right now.

而这一部分我们目前 完全没有准备好。

We are now about to enter an age of extreme volatility,

我们即将步入一个 极端不稳定的时代，

with dwindling resources of water and soil,

水资源和土地资源枯竭，

higher energy prices.

能源价格上涨。

And we essentially are unprepared.

而我们基本上还没准备好。

So we need much more investment and focus on preparing a food system

因此我们需要更多的投资， 聚焦于建立一个食品系统，

to deal with the reality that we are entering in today.

以应对我们目前面对的现实。

But this third part is the part that gets me excited

而第三部分让我感到兴奋，

and gives me a lot of hope.

让我充满希望。

Because I firmly believe, I know it to be true,

因为我坚信它会实现，

that food and agriculture, nature-based solutions more broadly --

食品和农业，更广泛来说 是以自然为基础的解决方案——

namely, you throw in there oceans and forestry --

顾名思义，就是海洋和森林——

are the only systems on planet Earth

它们是地球上唯一一个

有能力在可见的未来

that has the capacity to sequester enough carbon

in the time horizon -- this is the important part --

吸收足够多碳的系统—— 这一点很重要——

现在大气中的 1100 亿吨碳，

110 billion metric tons of carbon that are in our atmosphere

used to be in our soils.

曾经全在我们的土壤里。

That's 80 years of our current footprint.

这是我们如今 80 年的碳足迹。

And we are starting to see tools and technologies

我们开始看到有工具和技术，

and rediscovering old techniques that can take a lot of that carbon

和重新发现的旧技术， 能把许多碳

and put it back into the soil.

放回土壤。

And technologies that allow our food system

以及能让我们的食品系统

to become much more efficient and vibrant.

变得更加高效和有生命力的技术。

I'll give you a couple that are superexciting to me.

我举几个让我尤为兴奋的例子。

One is a company called Loam Bio

第一个是一家 叫 “Loam Bio” 的公司，

that has discovered fungi microbes that coat seeds,

他们发现了一种 包裹种子的真菌微生物，

that are pulling between one and three tonnes of carbon per acre per year,

每年每英亩可以吸收 1-3 吨碳，

and store that carbon in more permanent forms in the soil.

并将这些碳以更持久的形式 存储在土壤中。

When you do the math on how many acres are under cultivation,

算算我们有多少耕地，

this is a tool that can be transformational.

这将带来翻天覆地的变化。

还有一家叫 “Inari Agriculture” 的公司，

Or a company like Inari Agriculture,

using modern breeding techniques that can dramatically increase yield

使用现代培育技术极大提高产量，

while reducing the amount of fertilizer that’s needed

同时减少化肥用量，

or pesticides and herbicides that are needed to protect that plant.

减少杀虫剂和除草剂用量。

I could go on and on about these tools.

我还能举出很多这样的例子。

They're out there.

它们已经出现。

We have the solutions at hand.

我们是有解决方案的。

The problem is we're just out of time.

问题是我们时间不够。

So for all of us who are working on these issues,

因此对于我们所有 从事这方面工作的人，

or leading in whatever we are doing,

或者各领域的领路人，

如果已经有计划， 而且感觉很舒适，就好像

if we have our plan and we feel comfortable, like,

"This feels about right, I'm doing my thing,"

“这个感觉很对，我在做我的事”，

then we're simply not doing enough.

那证明我们做得还不够。

We have to get fundamentally out of our comfort zone

我们需要从根本上走出舒适区，

and take on a lot more risk in terms of our actions.

在采取行动这件事上，更冒险一些。

So I hope that, as we sit here tonight together

我希望我们今晚聚在这里，

and eat some of the challenges we face,

吃着一些面临挑战的食物，

we understand what's truly at stake.

能理解什么东西真的危在旦夕。

We understand that we absolutely have the capacity to solve this challenge,

我们明白，我们绝对 有能力解决难题，

but that if we don't act now, we're going to lose time.

但如果我们现在不行动， 就来不及了。

But I know that we can look back,

但我坚信，未来某天回望的时候，

and collectively say to ourselves,

我们可以对自己说，

"We stood up and met the moment,

“我们挺身而出，直面挑战，

and we ensured that our kids and that our grandkids

我们确保子孙后代

will be able to enjoy a delicious meal

能享受一顿美味佳肴

like the one we’re having here tonight.”

就像今晚我们享用的一样。”

So thank you for your work,

谢谢你们的努力，

and I look forward to seeing what we can do together.

我期待看到我们共同努力的成果。