How to Outthink Your Competition -- with a Lesson from Sports | Rasmus Ankersen | TED

翻译人员: Sue Lu 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

Do you remember this one?

你们还记得这部手机吗？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

It's a Nokia 3310.

这是一部诺基亚 3310 。

Once recognized as the greatest phone ever produced.

一度被认为是有史以来最棒的手机。

I guess most of you in this room owned one, didn't you?

我猜你们大部分人都曾有过一部， 对吧？

Please raise your hand if you owned a 3310.

拥有过 3310 的人，请举手。

Wow, so almost 100 percent market share here.

哇，诺基亚在这儿 曾占有近 100% 的市场份额。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So you'll remember that it never ran out of battery.

那么，你们一定还记得 3310 的电池永远够用吧。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

You could play Snake on it.

你还能用它玩贪吃蛇游戏。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

It was world-famous for being the indestructible phone.

它也是世界闻名的“坚如板砖”的手机。

So in the mobile industry,

所以在手机行业，

the saying used to go that if someone drops an iPhone,

有这样一句俗话：如果有人摔了苹果，

the screen breaks.

屏幕会碎。

If someone drops a Nokia 3310,

如果有人摔了诺基亚 3310 ，

the floor breaks.

地板会碎。

It was unbelievably solid.

它简直是不可思议的结实。

The 3310 embodied exactly what Nokia stood for as a brand:

3310 真正体现了 诺基亚品牌的内涵：

resilience, quality and innovation.

坚韧、卓越、创新。

It was products like this one

正是像 3310 这样的产品

that turned Nokia into one of the most successful companies

让诺基亚成为全球

on the planet.

最成功的企业之一。

But as you will also remember,

但是你们一定也记得，

there is another and a more tragic side to this story.

这个故事还有很不幸的一面。

Because today, the 3310 rests in peace at the gadget's graveyard.

因为今天，诺基亚 3310 已安静地 躺在电子小机件的坟墓里，

It's become a symbol of the collapse of Nokia,

成为诺基亚公司倒塌的一个象征。

a company that went from 50 percent global market share

诺基亚在 5 年内， 从 50% 的全球市场份额

to three percent in less than five years.

骤降到 3% 。

And it made me think that,

这让我想到，

while we talk a lot about how an organization achieves success,

当我们大势谈论一家公司 如何取得成功的时候，

maybe we don't talk enough about the psychological challenges

也许我们并没有好好探讨一番

通常伴随其成功的心理挑战。

that often follow success.

Because if you think about it,

想想看，

almost every industry has its own Nokia story.

几乎每行每业都有它们的“诺基亚”故事。

Companies that once dominated their industry

那些公司企业曾是行业龙头，

but then somehow completely lost the mojo.

然而却不知怎地就彻底完结了，

They all leave us with that million dollar question.

给我们留下价值百万之谜。

Why do successful companies actually fail?

为什么这些成功的企业会失败？

And what could they have done to stay ahead of the pack?

他们能采取什么措施 保持行业领先的状态呢？

So I'm going to try and answer that question today,

我今天将尝试解答这个谜题。

not by using traditional management thinking

不用传统的管理思维，

but by using an idea from football analytics,

而是用足球分析思维，

which I believe explains why many successful companies

来解释为什么许多成功企业

so often hesitate to change until it's too late.

常常不愿改变，直到悔之晚矣。

Before I start, I need to ask a very important question.

开始之前，我先问一个很重要的问题。

Do we have any Newcastle United supporters in the room?

我们当中有人是纽卡斯尔联足球队的 支持者吗？

Audience: Yeah!

观众：有！

RA: Yeah, there’s a couple there.

RA：有，那边有一对。

So, guys, I'm just going to warn you, the next 10 minutes will be painful.

好吧，那我要提醒你们一下， 接下来的 10 分钟会很难受。

I know the last 25 years have been painful,

我知道过去 25 年都是很难受的，

but don't take this personally.

但请不要把我讲的往心里去。

This is the stadium of Newcastle United,

这是纽卡斯尔联足球队的体育场，

St James' Park.

位于圣詹姆斯公园。

Every other week, 50,000 die-hard supporters

每两周，5 万名死忠粉丝

flock to the stadium to watch their team play.

齐聚体育场观看他们的球队比赛。

And instinctively, Newcastle United has all the building blocks

凭直觉看，纽卡斯尔联队具备所有

to become a really successful football club.

成为一个很成功的足球俱乐部的要素。

They got a billionaire businessman owner,

他们有亿万商业富翁掌权人，

they got a fan base most other clubs would die for.

他们有其它绝大多数俱乐部 梦寐以求的粉丝群。

But despite all that,

尽管如此，

Newcastle is also known as the team

纽卡斯尔联队也以从未能实现

that never really fulfilled its potential.

其终极目标尽展潜力而出名。

But then a little bit more than five years ago, in 2012,

然而，大概是 5 年前的 2012 年，

the fortune seems to change for Newcastle

纽卡斯尔联队似乎开始转运了，

because they sensationally finished fifth in the English Premier League,

斩获世界最强的联盟比赛英超

the strongest league in the world.

第五名，轰动一时。

That was an amazing achievement.

那真的是了不起的成就。

All the experts predicted Newcastle to be battling [to] avoid relegation.

所有的专家预测纽卡斯尔联队 会拼尽全力以避免淘汰。

Now they were fifth.

结果他们居然勇夺第五名。

Inside Newcastle,

纽卡斯尔联队内部，

the excitement was bubbling too.

兴奋之情也在高涨。

The management team was convinced this is the start of a new era

管理层团队坚信， 这是他们足球俱乐部

in the football club's history.

新纪元的开端。

So they decided to reward the head coach and his whole coaching staff

所以他们决定与主教练及其教练团队

a historic-long, unbreakable eight-year contract.

签订有史以来最长的， 不可解约的 8 年合同。

And they really tried to do everything they could to keep the squad together

此外，他们还用尽各种办法 竭力保住球队的完整

for the following season,

以继续接下来的赛季。

because that's how successful organizations

这就是成功的组织

are supposed to think, right?

通常的思维，对吧？

The following season this happened.

接下来的赛季，情况是，

Newcastle almost relegated.

纽卡斯尔队几乎滑出排行榜。

They finished 16th,

他们最终排名 16 。

and no one had a clue what was going on.

没人清楚到底发生了什么。

Because they had the same players,

因为球队还是同样的队员，

they had the same coaching staff,

同样的教练员，

they even played in the same stadiums.

他们甚至是在同一个体育场比赛的。

I mean, nothing's changed.

我是说，一切都没有改变。

How could a largely unchanged team go from fifth to 16th

那么，一个几乎没有任何改变的球队 怎么会在短短的 12 个月内

in less than 12 months?

从第 5 名掉到 16 名？

I'm going to try and answer that question.

让我来试着解答这个问题。

But first, I’m going to give you a little bit of background.

但首先，我要给你介绍一下相关背景。

Because in football, there’s a good old expression

在足球界有个很好的惯用俗语，

that's frequently used by coaches,

常常挂在教练，

players, commentators, experts.

足球员，解说员，和专家们的嘴边。

It goes like this:

俗语道：

the league table never lies.

排行榜从不撒谎。

It kind of assumes that once the last game of a season is played,

通常的假设是，赛季最后 一场比赛打完之后，

justice prevails.

排行榜就会公平地排出名次。

The team that finishes top of the table is the best-performing team,

排行榜上第一名的球队 就是表现最好的队伍，

and the teams that relegate are the worst-performing teams.

排名下滑的球队就是表现最差的队伍。

At the end of the day, everyone gets what they deserve.

最终，每只队伍得到 他们应得的名次。

It's not that simple, actually.

实际上，这并不是那么简单。

And let me explain why.

让我来解释为什么。

Please meet Matthew Benham.

请看，这是马修·本汉姆（Matthew Benham）， （布伦特福德足球俱乐部老板）

He's a gambler.

他是一位赌家。

He convinced me the brightest guys in football

他让我明白了足球界最聪明的人

don't work for the football clubs.

不是替足球俱乐部工作的人，

They work in the gambling industry.

而是在赌博行业工作的人。

And I’m not talking about the amateur gambler,

我不是说那种业余的赌徒，

the guy that is placing a bet every Saturday morning

每周六早上都下注

to trigger his weekly rush of adrenaline.

来得到一次肾上激素兴奋。

I'm talking about the pros,

我指的是专业的赌家，

the guys that are using sophisticated mathematical models to place the bets.

那些使用精密数学模型下注的赌家。

That's the brightest guys, and Matthew is one of them.

他们才是最聪明的人才，马修 就是其中的一位。

He's an Oxford graduate in physics

他毕业于牛津大学物理系，

that decided to set up his own betting syndicate in North London,

之后决定在北伦敦建立他自己的 博彩财团。

basically an office full of PhD statisticians

公司里满是博士统计学家

calculating the probabilities for the outcome of football games.

都在计算足球比赛结果的可能性。

That has made him a rich man.

这让他赚大了。

So rich, he decided to buy the football club

他变得非常有钱，于是决定买那个

he supported since he was a teenager:

他从青少年时起就在支持的俱乐部：

Brentford in West London.

西伦敦的布伦特福德足球俱乐部。

And that's where I met him five years ago,

五年前我在那里认识的他，

at Jersey Road, the training ground of Brentford.

是在俱乐部位于泽西路的训练场上。

At the time we met, Brentford was third in League One,

我们认识时，布伦特福德足球队是 第一联盟的第三名，

which is the third tier of English football.

属于英超的第三等球队。

There was only five games remaining of the season,

那时整个赛季只剩下 5 场比赛了，

and Brentford was pushing for a promotion.

布伦特福德足球队正在奋力提高名次。

So I said to Matthew,

于是我问马修：

"What do you think?

“怎么样？

Are you going to promote this season and what does your gut feel say?"

这一季你的球队名次能更好吗？ 你的直觉是什么？”

He gave me an answer I didn't quite expect.

他给了我一个意想不到的、

It was not an answer full of excitement.

不是很来劲的回答。

The guy just looked at me and then he said, very dry,

马修看着我，干瘪瘪地说道：

“Well, at the moment there’s a 42 percent chance we’ll promote.”

“嗯，目前有 42% 的机会更好吧。”

That comment made me realize that I met someone

那一刻，我意识到此人对赛事的想法

who thought completely different about the game than I ever met before.

完全不同于我从前遇到的所有人。

Over the next couple of months,

之后几个月，

Matthew and I started to meet regularly to exchange ideas

马修和我开始定期会面，交流想法，

about how you could run a football club differently.

讨论如何用不同的方式去 经营一家足球俱乐部。

In particular,

尤其是，

how would it be possible to break the correlation

怎么去打破现存的

between spending and results that seems to exist?

花费支出与比赛结果的关联？

Is it possible to not outspend but outthink the competition

是否能够不多花钱财， 用智取赢得比赛，

by using the weapons of a gambler, data and analytics?

比如利用赌家，数据及分析学这些优势？

One day we had lunch at a restaurant together

有一天，我们在位于伦敦索霍区的

in Soho in London,

一家餐厅吃午饭。

and Matthew said to me he'd been looking to buy another football club.

马修告诉我他计划再买一个 足球俱乐部。

And I immediately responded, "Why don't you take a look at the club

我立刻回答道：“你要不要去看下

I supported when I was a teenager,"

我从小就支持的俱乐部。”

FC Midtjylland,

丹麦米德兰俱乐部，

based in the western rural Denmark, in the middle of nowhere.

位于丹麦西部乡村边远地区。

Midtjylland was almost broke at the time,

那时候，它已经快破产了。

so it was a perfect place to start testing radical ideas.

正是测试极端想法的好地方。

A week later, we flew to Denmark, and we had a look at the club.

一周后，我们飞到丹麦去考察那家俱乐部。

Eventually, he decided to buy the club.

最终，马修决定买下它。

He made me the chairman of the club,

他让我做俱乐部的主席。

and we've run the club together for the past four years.

过去的四年里， 我们一起经营着俱乐部。

In the first season, we won the first championship in the club’s history,

第一季度，我们赢得俱乐部史上 第一个奖杯。

and a year later we became world-famous

一年之后，我们名扬四海，

because we beat the mighty Manchester United

因为在欧洲联赛中， 我们打赢了

in the Europa League.

强大的曼彻斯特联队。

Unfortunately, in the UK, that's more perceived

不幸的是，英国人更多认为

as the absolute embarrassment of Manchester United

那是由于曼联队的失常表现造成，

than the genius of Midtjylland,

而非米德兰俱乐部踢得出色。

but we will live with that.

没关系，我们不在乎这个。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Suddenly, media, newspapers, TV stations from all the world

突然间，全世界的媒体、报纸、电视等，

were flying to western Denmark to learn more about this little club

都飞来丹麦西部报道这个小小的、

no one can pronounce the name of,

没人知道怎么拼读其名的俱乐部。

which is run by an English gambler

一家由英国投机赌家经营、

using data and analytics to find a competitive edge.

采用数据分析找到竞争优势的俱乐部。

So here's the thing.

所以，

If you want to understand how a gambler thinks,

如果你想了解赌家的思维，

there’s one concept you must get, it’s this:

你必须知道一个概念，那就是：

the league table always lies.

排行榜总是撒谎。

Why is a gambler saying that?

为什么赌家会这么说？

Because he understands football is a very random game.

因为他明白足球是一个随机比赛。

It's a much more random game than basketball, for example.

比篮球比赛更为随机。

Why is that?

为什么呢?

Because football is a low-scoring sport.

因为足球是一项低得分运动，

There's not a lot of goals in football.

比赛进球不多。

No, the average number of goals in a football game is 2.8.

准确的说，平均每场足球比赛 进球是 2.8 个，

The average number of goals in a basketball games is above 200.

而平均每场篮球比赛 进球是 200 多个。

Here's the principle.

常规定律是，

The fewer goals there is in a sport,

一项运动进球数越低，

the more impact random events have.

随机事件对其影响就越大。

Random events like the ball getting deflected and spins into the net,

比如一个踢偏了但却旋转入网的球，

or the referee making a wrong call in the last minute of the game.

或是裁判员在比赛 最后一分钟的判决错误。

Ultimately, this means that the best team wins less often in football,

从根本上讲，顶尖球队 在低得分运动如足球比赛中，

a low scoring-sport,

取胜率往往会低于

than in a high-scoring sport like basketball.

在篮球比赛那样的高得分运动中。

And that's why the league table lies.

这就是排行榜会撒谎的原因。

It lies more after ten games than after 20 games.

相比 20 场比赛后的排行榜， 10 场比赛后的结果更易误导观众。

But even 38 games, that is a full season,

整个赛季共 38 场比赛，

38 games is a very small sample size.

这是一个非常小的数量。

You know, not enough to strip out the randomness from the equation.

你知道的，完全不足以剔除 等式方程中的随机性。

So a gambler is in the business of making predictions

而一个赌家做的是预测的生意，

and backing those predictions with his bets.

根据其预测下赌注。

And when he decides to back a team and place a bet,

当他选择下注支持一只球队时，

he doesn't look at where that team is in the league table.

他不依据其在排行榜的排名。

He looks at underlying performance indicators

他注重的是更有预测价值的、

that have more predictive value,

潜在的绩效指标，

tells him more about where that team is likely to go in the future

那更能显示球队将能达到的名次，

than its current league table position.

而不是现在排行榜的名次。

So let's go back to Newcastle's glory season

好，让我们回到 纽卡斯尔无比荣耀的赛季，

when they finished fifth

从一个赌家的视角来重新看看

and revisit that through the lens of a gambler.

纽卡斯尔队斩获第五名。

Because whereas experts in the game

当时尽管球赛专家

were overly impressed by Newcastle's performance,

对纽卡斯尔队的表现超级赞赏，

the gamblers were very skeptical.

赌家们却对此持怀疑态度。

Their analysis showed that this was a fragile bubble

他们的分析数据显示 这是个易碎的泡沫，

that could burst any time.

随时都可能破裂。

Here's why.

因为，

One of the statistics a gambler trusts a lot

赌家深信的一组统计数据

is the statistic called goal difference.

是净胜球统计。

It's the difference between the number of goals a team scores

这个数据显示一只球队的进球数与

versus the number of goals the opponent scores.

对手进球数的差别。

It's a very reliable indicator for a team's strength.

它能可靠地显示球队真正实力。

So let's look at that.

让我们来看看。

Newcastle finished fifth

纽卡斯尔虽然排名第五，

with a total shot differential of plus-five.

但只有 +5 净胜球，

A long way behind the four top teams.

与前四名球队的差距很大。

And if you look at that column, it's by far the lowest number.

在表图的那个栏目里， +5 是迄今为止的最低数。

This indicates what a gambler calls

赌家称这为

an extremely effective goal distribution

极其高效的进球分布。

All goes in football are important.

在足球比赛中，所有的进球都重要。

Not all goals are equally important.

但不是所有的进球都同等重要。

So here's an example.

比如，

Let's say Newcastle scores two goals over two games

纽卡斯尔队在两场比赛中共进球 2 个，

and the opponent scores six goals.

而对手进球 6 个。

Newcastle will be better off winning 1-0 in the first game,

但对纽卡斯尔队来说， 最好是以 1-0 赢第一场比赛，

losing 6-1 in the second,

以 6-1 输第二场比赛，

rather than losing twice 3-1.

而不是以 3-1 输掉两场比赛。

Same goal difference but different number of points.

你看，进球差别相同， 但胜负得分却不同。

So if a team is able to produce,

所以，如果一支球队

concede a number of goals throughout the season,

在整个赛季有一定数量的进球、输球，

how effective those scores follow the goal distribution,

那么进球的分布能否有效地和得分挂钩

there's a big degree of randomness to that.

存在很大程度的随机性。

And if you break down Newcastle's 65 points this season,

如果你解析这个赛季 纽卡斯尔队得的 65 分，

you’ll see that it was driven by a very effective goal distribution:

你就会明白那是来自于一个 非常高效的进球分布：

eight wins with one goal

有 8 场比赛靠 1 个进球赢得，

and three major losses with more than three goals.

有 3 场输掉的比赛， 各输了 3 个球。

It's very unlikely statistically

从数据统计的角度来看，

to be able to repeat 65 points with a plus five goal difference.

几乎不可能重复这种 65 分取得 +5 净胜球的运气。

Another statistic a gambler trusts

另一个赌家信任的数据是

is something called shot differential:

净射球统计：

the difference between the number of shots a team produces

它是一支球队的射球数量

versus the number of shots the opponent produces.

减去对手射球数量的结果。

It's statistically very well-documented in football

足球界翔实的统计资料显示，

that the best team over time produces more shots than the worst teams.

随着时间的推移，最好的球队总会比 最差的球队射球更多。

So let's have a look at that.

让我们来看下这张表格。

And as you can see,

正如你看到的，

Newcastle finished fifth with a total shot differential of -1.4.

纽卡斯尔队排名第 5， 净射球却是 -1.4 。

Clearly they don't belong in this company.

很显然，这支球队不属于顶尖级。

This indicates unsustainably high conversion rate.

其数据预示一个难以持久的高转化率。

When you have a positive goal difference

当驱使高净胜球的，

driven by a negative shot differential,

是一个负净射球数，

it indicates unsustainably high conversion rates.

那只能说明球队有难以维持的高转换率。

How many of those shots were converted to goals?

有多少个射球转化为了进球而得分呢？

And Newcastle had especially one player this season

尤其是纽卡斯尔队这一季 有一个球员，

who stood out, Cisse, their top scorer.

帕皮斯·西塞， 他发挥出色，得分最高，

A key component of their success.

是纽卡斯尔队成功的关键人物。

He converted 33 percent of his shots.

他 33% 的射球都进了， 从而成功得分。

Ladies and gentlemen, that's a freaky number.

女士们先生们，这是很了不得的数字。

Here is how I would put it.

我来打个比方吧。

Newcastle's fifth place is the equivalent

纽卡斯尔队的第 5 名相当于

of a publicly traded company

一家上市公司，股票价格高昂，

having a very high share price

and a very low customer satisfaction at the same time.

然而同时客户满意度极低。

You can have that for one year,

这种状况可以持续一年， 但不可能长久。

but you can't maintain that over time.

Here's a visualization of how a gambler perceived the situation.

这里有个图表显示 赌家是怎么看待这种状况的。

The black line shows the number of points Newcastle achieved

黑线是纽卡斯尔队

throughout those two seasons

在两个赛季的得分，

when they were fifth and when there were 16th.

分别是第 5 名和第 16 名。

The red line is the underlying performance,

红线是他们的实际表现。

what a gambler calls expected points.

赌家称之为预计分数。

So as you can see,

正如所见，

Newcastle got a lot more points in the first season

纽卡斯尔队在第 1 赛季 获得高出预期很多的分数，

when they finished fifth,

排名第 5，

than the underlying performance justified.

与实际表现不符。

Actually, Newcastle performed almost the same way in those two seasons.

其实，纽卡斯尔队 在两个赛季的表现几乎一样。

They just got less lucky.

但只是第二季没那么走运。

And this reframes the original question.

这就回到最初的问题。

Because why did Newcastle’s management team not see this downturn coming?

为什么纽卡斯尔的管理层 没有预见到即将到来的逆转？

Why did they decide to reward the head coach with a historic, long,

他们为什么会奖励主教练 跟他签一个史无前例的、

unbreakable contract

不可解约的长期合同？

when the results were clearly unsustainable?

特别是赛季结果 已清楚显示其难以维持的状况。

I believe that Newcastle was blinded

我认为纽卡斯尔被

by one the most common management delusions,

一个很常见的管理错觉蒙蔽了，

what psychologists call outcome bias.

心里学家称之为结果偏见。

The assumption that good results

这种假设认为好结果

are always the consequence of good decisions

都是明智决策

and superior performance.

和优异表现带来的。

Or, let’s put it in another way:

或者，换句话说：

success turns luck into genius.

成功令我们把运气好误以为是能力强。

And this is where the message becomes about much more

这里想传达的信息

than just football analytics, right?

不仅仅是足球数据分析，明白吗？

Because when an organization fails,

当一个企业失败了，

it becomes very natural for us to dig for reasons,

我们会本能地深挖原因，

to ask the tough questions.

提出难以回答的问题，

Why did we fail?

我们为什么会失败？

How can we do things better?

我们应该如何改进？

But when we are successful, we don't ask those questions.

然而，成功的时侯， 我们从来不探讨那些问题。

We tend to just cruise on blinded by outcome bias.

我们容易受到结果偏见的蒙蔽，

We expect results to continue automatically.

只管前行，期望胜利会自动复制。

We don’t dig into them and ask,

我们对成功不挖不问缘由。

“What was actually the underlying reason for the success?”

“什么才是成功的真正原因？”

Was it because of the oil price?

是因为石油价格吗？

Was it because of good leadership

还是因为优秀的管理能力吗？

or because of exceptional market conditions?

或是因为罕见的市场情况？

How many companies do you think confuse good leadership

你觉得有多少企业把优秀的管理能力

with good market conditions?

和良好的市场环境混为一谈？

Here's the thing.

从现在开始，

Successful organizations should think more like a good gambler.

成功的企业组织应该 像出色的赌家一样思维。

Because a good gambler has trained his brain

出色的赌家训练他的大脑

to resist the human tendency

尽量减少那些人为假设，

to assume that good outcomes always mean that someone acted brilliantly.

比如相信好结果源于有人工作出色。

A good gambler treats success with the same skepticism

好的赌家对成功保持怀疑态度，

as he treats failure.

如同对待失败一样。

And this is what successful organizations should do too,

这也是成功的企业组织应该效仿的。

if they want to stay relevant:

如果他们想要与时代同步发展，

ask themselves the questions of a gambler.

就应该问赌家问的问题。

Why were we actually successful?

我们为什么会成功？

How do we separate luck from skill?

我们应该如何辨别技能和运气？

Is it possible that our league table sometimes lied too?

我们的排名榜是否有时也会造成错觉？

Thank you very much.

感谢大家。