How to Outthink Your Competition -- with a Lesson from Sports | Rasmus Ankersen | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: 麗玲 辛

Do you remember this one?

各位還記得這個嗎？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

It's a Nokia 3310.

這是諾基亞 3310。

Once recognized as the greatest phone ever produced.

曾經被認為是史上最偉大的手機。

I guess most of you in this room owned one, didn't you?

我猜在座大部分的人 都曾經擁有過一支吧？

Please raise your hand if you owned a 3310.

曾經有過 3310 的人請舉手。

Wow, so almost 100 percent market share here.

哇，這裡的市佔率幾乎是 100%。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So you'll remember that it never ran out of battery.

各位應該記得， 它的電池永遠不會沒電。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

You could play Snake on it.

可以用它玩貪吃蛇。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

It was world-famous for being the indestructible phone.

它的堅不可摧也是世界知名的。

So in the mobile industry,

在手機業，以前有個說法： 若有人把 iPhone 摔在地上，

the saying used to go that if someone drops an iPhone,

the screen breaks.

螢幕會破掉；若有人 把 3310 摔在地上，

If someone drops a Nokia 3310,

the floor breaks.

地板會破掉。

It was unbelievably solid.

它堅固到難以置信。

The 3310 embodied exactly what Nokia stood for as a brand:

3310 實際體現了 諾基亞品牌的理念：

resilience, quality and innovation.

韌性、品質、創新。

It was products like this one

正是像這樣的產品，把諾基亞變成

that turned Nokia into one of the most successful companies

世界上最成功的公司之一。

on the planet.

But as you will also remember,

但各位應該也記得這個故事 還有比較悲劇的另一面。

there is another and a more tragic side to this story.

Because today, the 3310 rests in peace at the gadget's graveyard.

因為，現今，3310

在小機件的墳場中安息。

It's become a symbol of the collapse of Nokia,

它變成了諾基亞垮台的象徵，

a company that went from 50 percent global market share

這間公司本來在全球 有 50% 的市佔率，

to three percent in less than five years.

在五年間就掉到不足 3%。

And it made me think that,

這讓我思索，

while we talk a lot about how an organization achieves success,

雖然我們常常談組織如何成功，

maybe we don't talk enough about the psychological challenges

但也許我們更需要多談談成功之後，

that often follow success.

接踵而來的心理挑戰。

Because if you think about it,

因為，如果仔細想，

almost every industry has its own Nokia story.

幾乎每個產業都有 自己版本的諾基亞故事。

Companies that once dominated their industry

曾經一度支配整個產業的公司

but then somehow completely lost the mojo.

接著卻不知怎麼地完全失去了魔力。

They all leave us with that million dollar question.

它們總讓我們想問這個重要的難題：

Why do successful companies actually fail?

成功的公司到底為什麼會失敗？

And what could they have done to stay ahead of the pack?

它們本來可以怎麼做， 來保持領先群雄？

So I'm going to try and answer that question today,

今天我要來試著回答這個問題， 但不是用傳統的管理思維，

not by using traditional management thinking

but by using an idea from football analytics,

而是用從足球分析得來的一個觀念。

which I believe explains why many successful companies

我認為這個觀念能解釋 為什麼這麼多成功的公司

so often hesitate to change until it's too late.

總是會猶豫要不要改變， 直到一切都太遲了。

Before I start, I need to ask a very important question.

開始之前，我需要先問 一個非常重要的問題。

Do we have any Newcastle United supporters in the room?

在座有沒有紐卡索聯 足球俱樂部的支持者？

Audience: Yeah!

觀眾：有！

RA: Yeah, there’s a couple there.

講者：有幾位。我只是要警告 你們接下來十分鐘會很痛苦。

So, guys, I'm just going to warn you, the next 10 minutes will be painful.

I know the last 25 years have been painful,

我知道過去二十五年都很痛苦，但，

but don't take this personally.

別覺得我是針對你。

This is the stadium of Newcastle United,

這是紐卡索聯的體育館， 聖占士公園球場。

St James' Park.

Every other week, 50,000 die-hard supporters

每隔一週，就會有五萬名死忠支持者

flock to the stadium to watch their team play.

聚集到這個體育館， 看他們的球隊比賽。

And instinctively, Newcastle United has all the building blocks

直覺上，紐卡索聯擁有成為

to become a really successful football club.

成功足球俱樂部的所有必要元素。

They got a billionaire businessman owner,

他們的老闆是億萬富翁級的生意人，

they got a fan base most other clubs would die for.

他們的球迷是其他 俱樂部求之不得的。

But despite all that,

但儘管有這一切，紐卡索

Newcastle is also known as the team

也以從未發揮潛力聞名。

that never really fulfilled its potential.

But then a little bit more than five years ago, in 2012,

但，五年多前，2012 年，

the fortune seems to change for Newcastle

紐卡索似乎要轉運了，

because they sensationally finished fifth in the English Premier League,

因為他們引起轟動，

在世界最強的聯賽，

英格蘭足球超級聯賽中， 以第五名收場。

the strongest league in the world.

That was an amazing achievement.

那是驚人的成就。

All the experts predicted Newcastle to be battling [to] avoid relegation.

所有的專家本來都預測 紐卡索還得力拼不被降級。

Now they were fifth.

現在他們卻排名第五。

Inside Newcastle,

紐卡索內部也無比興奮。

the excitement was bubbling too.

The management team was convinced this is the start of a new era

管理團隊相信， 這是足球俱樂部歷史上

in the football club's history.

一個新紀元的開始，

So they decided to reward the head coach and his whole coaching staff

所以他們決定要獎賞總教頭 和整個教練團隊，

a historic-long, unbreakable eight-year contract.

跟他們簽下超長 且牢不可破的八年合約。

And they really tried to do everything they could to keep the squad together

他們也真的盡力而為

在下一季保持球隊的團結，

for the following season,

because that's how successful organizations

因為成功的組織 就應該這樣想，對吧？

are supposed to think, right?

The following season this happened.

下一季的狀況是這樣。

Newcastle almost relegated.

紐卡索差點被降級。 最後排名第十六。

They finished 16th,

and no one had a clue what was going on.

到底怎麼回事？沒人摸得著頭緒。

Because they had the same players,

因為球員都一樣，

they had the same coaching staff,

教練團隊也一樣，

they even played in the same stadiums.

他們甚至在同一個體育館 比賽，什麼都沒有改變。

I mean, nothing's changed.

How could a largely unchanged team go from fifth to 16th

怎麼可能一個幾乎沒改變的球隊

在不到一年間，就從 第五名掉到第十六名？

in less than 12 months?

I'm going to try and answer that question.

我等下會試著回答這個問題。

But first, I’m going to give you a little bit of background.

但我要先告訴各位一點背景資訊。

Because in football, there’s a good old expression

在足球中，有一句老話，

that's frequently used by coaches,

教練、球員、播報員、 專家都常會用它，

players, commentators, experts.

It goes like this:

它是這樣說的：

the league table never lies.

聯賽排行榜永遠不會騙人。

It kind of assumes that once the last game of a season is played,

這句話有點是認定 一旦球季的最後一場比賽結束，

justice prevails.

正義就會獲勝。

The team that finishes top of the table is the best-performing team,

在排行榜頂端的球隊 就是表現最佳的球隊，

and the teams that relegate are the worst-performing teams.

而被降級的球隊 就是表現最差的球隊。

At the end of the day, everyone gets what they deserve.

到頭來，人人都會得到他們應得的。

It's not that simple, actually.

其實沒那麼簡單。

And let me explain why.

讓我解釋為什麼。

Please meet Matthew Benham.

請見見馬修‧班漢。

He's a gambler.

他是個賭徒。

He convinced me the brightest guys in football

他讓我相信足球界最聰明的人 不會為足球俱樂部工作。

don't work for the football clubs.

They work in the gambling industry.

他們做的是賭博業。

And I’m not talking about the amateur gambler,

我指的不是業餘的賭徒，

the guy that is placing a bet every Saturday morning

不是那種每個星期六

早上下一注來讓他 那一週腎上腺素大增的人。

to trigger his weekly rush of adrenaline.

I'm talking about the pros,

我指的是專業的，

the guys that are using sophisticated mathematical models to place the bets.

用精密數學模型來下注的那種人。

That's the brightest guys, and Matthew is one of them.

那是最聰明的人，而馬修是其中之一。

He's an Oxford graduate in physics

他是哈佛畢業生，主修物理，

that decided to set up his own betting syndicate in North London,

決定在北倫敦設立 自己的下注企業聯合組織，

basically an office full of PhD statisticians

辦公室裏都是有博士學位的統計學家

calculating the probabilities for the outcome of football games.

在計算足球比賽結果的機率。

That has made him a rich man.

那讓他賺了大錢，

So rich, he decided to buy the football club

富有到

他決定買下他從小 就一直支持的足球俱樂部：

he supported since he was a teenager:

Brentford in West London.

西倫敦的布倫福。

And that's where I met him five years ago,

那就是我五年前和他相遇的地方：

at Jersey Road, the training ground of Brentford.

布倫福的訓練場地「澤西路」。

At the time we met, Brentford was third in League One,

我們相遇時，

布倫福在英國足球的 第三級聯賽，甲級聯賽中排名第三。

which is the third tier of English football.

There was only five games remaining of the season,

那一季只剩下五場比賽， 而布倫福在奮力爭取升級。

and Brentford was pushing for a promotion.

So I said to Matthew,

我對馬修說：

"What do you think?

「你認為呢？

Are you going to promote this season and what does your gut feel say?"

你們這一季會升級嗎？ 你的直覺怎麼說？」

He gave me an answer I didn't quite expect.

他給我的答案有點超乎我的預期。

It was not an answer full of excitement.

不是個興奮滿滿的答案。

The guy just looked at me and then he said, very dry,

這傢伙只是看著我，一本正經：

「目前我們會升級的 機率是 42%。」

“Well, at the moment there’s a 42 percent chance we’ll promote.”

That comment made me realize that I met someone

那個說法讓我了解到， 我遇到的這個人

who thought completely different about the game than I ever met before.

看比賽的想法角度 是我以前從來沒有見過的。

Over the next couple of months,

接下來幾個月，馬修和我 開始經常見面交流，

Matthew and I started to meet regularly to exchange ideas

about how you could run a football club differently.

討論如何用不同的方式 經營足球俱樂部，

In particular,

how would it be possible to break the correlation

尤其是如何才能打破花費和結果之間

between spending and results that seems to exist?

似乎存在的關聯性？

Is it possible to not outspend but outthink the competition

有沒有可能

不比對手花更多錢， 但是思考得更深入？

by using the weapons of a gambler, data and analytics?

用賭徒的手段，數據、 分析，能做到嗎？

One day we had lunch at a restaurant together

有一天，我們在餐廳一起吃午餐，

in Soho in London,

地點在倫敦蘇活區，

and Matthew said to me he'd been looking to buy another football club.

馬修跟我說他打算 再買一個足球俱樂部。

And I immediately responded, "Why don't you take a look at the club

我馬上回應：「你要不要考慮 我從小就支持的俱樂部？

I supported when I was a teenager,"

FC Midtjylland,

就是米迪蘭特，

based in the western rural Denmark, in the middle of nowhere.

位在丹麥西部鄉下 某個鳥不生蛋的地方。

Midtjylland was almost broke at the time,

那時米迪蘭特幾乎破產，

so it was a perfect place to start testing radical ideas.

所以若要測試極端的點子， 它是個很完美的起始點。

A week later, we flew to Denmark, and we had a look at the club.

一週後，我們飛去丹麥，

去看那個俱樂部。

Eventually, he decided to buy the club.

最後，他決定買下那個俱樂部。

他讓我當俱樂部董事長，

He made me the chairman of the club,

and we've run the club together for the past four years.

過去四年間，我們一起 經營那個俱樂部。

In the first season, we won the first championship in the club’s history,

在第一季，我們贏得了

該俱樂部史上的第一個冠軍，

and a year later we became world-famous

一年後，我們揚名世界，

because we beat the mighty Manchester United

因為我們在歐足的總歐洲聯賽 打敗了神級的曼徹斯特聯。

in the Europa League.

Unfortunately, in the UK, that's more perceived

不過，在英國，

大家比較覺得曼徹斯特聯實在很丟臉，

as the absolute embarrassment of Manchester United

than the genius of Midtjylland,

而非米迪蘭特好有才，

but we will live with that.

不過，我們可以接受。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Suddenly, media, newspapers, TV stations from all the world

突然間，全世界的媒體、報紙、電視台

were flying to western Denmark to learn more about this little club

都飛到丹麥西部，

來了解這個大家都不知道 名字怎麼唸的俱樂部，

no one can pronounce the name of,

which is run by an English gambler

由英國賭徒經營，

using data and analytics to find a competitive edge.

用數據和分析找到了競爭優勢。

So here's the thing.

重點來了。

If you want to understand how a gambler thinks,

如果你想了解賭徒怎麼想，

there’s one concept you must get, it’s this:

你就必須要懂這個概念：

the league table always lies.

聯賽排行榜總是在騙人。

Why is a gambler saying that?

賭徒為什麼會這樣說？

Because he understands football is a very random game.

因為他知道足球是非常隨機的比賽。

It's a much more random game than basketball, for example.

比如，它就比籃球更隨機， 為什麼會這樣？

Why is that?

Because football is a low-scoring sport.

因為足球是比分很低的運動。

There's not a lot of goals in football.

足球中的進球數不會很多。

No, the average number of goals in a football game is 2.8.

平均每場足球賽會進 2.8 球。

The average number of goals in a basketball games is above 200.

平均每場籃球賽會進超過 200 球。

Here's the principle.

原則是這樣的：

The fewer goals there is in a sport,

運動中，進球數越少，

the more impact random events have.

隨機事件的影響就越大。

Random events like the ball getting deflected and spins into the net,

隨機事件包括球反彈轉進了球門，

or the referee making a wrong call in the last minute of the game.

或者裁判在比賽的最後一分鐘誤判。

Ultimately, this means that the best team wins less often in football,

歸根結底，這表示

在足球這種低得分的運動中， 最佳球隊的贏球機率會低於

a low scoring-sport,

than in a high-scoring sport like basketball.

籃球這種高得分的運動。

And that's why the league table lies.

那就是為什麼聯賽排行榜會騙人。

It lies more after ten games than after 20 games.

10 場比賽後的排行榜 比 20 場的更會誤導人，

But even 38 games, that is a full season,

但即使在整季 38 場比賽之後，

38 games is a very small sample size.

38 場比賽仍然是非常小的樣本數。

You know, not enough to strip out the randomness from the equation.

不足以將隨機性從方程式當中剔除。

So a gambler is in the business of making predictions

所以賭徒在做的事

就是做預測，並用下注 來支持他的預測。

and backing those predictions with his bets.

And when he decides to back a team and place a bet,

當他要決定支持一個球隊並下注時，

he doesn't look at where that team is in the league table.

他並不會去看該球隊 在聯賽排行榜上的排名。

He looks at underlying performance indicators

他看的是背後的表現指標，

that have more predictive value,

這些指標更有預測價值， 能夠告訴他該球隊未來可能走向，

tells him more about where that team is likely to go in the future

than its current league table position.

而不是目前在排行榜上的位置。

So let's go back to Newcastle's glory season

咱們再回來談紐卡索輝煌的球季，

when they finished fifth

結束時排名第五的那一季，

and revisit that through the lens of a gambler.

這次透過賭徒的角度來重看一次。

Because whereas experts in the game

因為，雖然比賽中

were overly impressed by Newcastle's performance,

專家對紐卡索的表現大為嘆服，

the gamblers were very skeptical.

賭徒卻深表懷疑。

Their analysis showed that this was a fragile bubble

他們的分析顯示，

這是個脆弱的泡泡，隨時可能破掉。

that could burst any time.

Here's why.

原因如下：賭徒很信任的統計數字之一

One of the statistics a gambler trusts a lot

is the statistic called goal difference.

是「淨勝球數」。

It's the difference between the number of goals a team scores

它代表的是球隊的進球數

versus the number of goals the opponent scores.

和對手的進球數差多少。

It's a very reliable indicator for a team's strength.

要了解球隊的實力， 這是個很可靠的指標。

So let's look at that.

所以咱們來看看。

Newcastle finished fifth

紐卡索最後是第五名，

with a total shot differential of plus-five.

總淨勝球數是 +5。

A long way behind the four top teams.

遠遠落後前四名的隊伍，

And if you look at that column, it's by far the lowest number.

從那一欄可以看到 它的數字最低，而且差很多。

This indicates what a gambler calls

這代表的是

賭徒所謂的「極有效的進球分佈」，

an extremely effective goal distribution

All goes in football are important.

在足球中，所有進球都很重要， 但重要性並非都一樣。

Not all goals are equally important.

So here's an example.

舉個例子。

Let's say Newcastle scores two goals over two games

假設紐卡索在兩場比賽中進球兩次，

and the opponent scores six goals.

對手則進球六次。

Newcastle will be better off winning 1-0 in the first game,

對紐卡索較好的狀況 是第一場以 1-0 獲勝，

losing 6-1 in the second,

以 6-1 輸掉第二場，

rather than losing twice 3-1.

而不是兩場都以 3-1 輸掉。

Same goal difference but different number of points.

淨勝球數都一樣，

得分不同。

So if a team is able to produce,

所以即使球隊整季都能

concede a number of goals throughout the season,

踢出一定數量的進球數，

how effective those scores follow the goal distribution,

這些進球的效益取決於進球分佈，

there's a big degree of randomness to that.

這當中的隨機程度很高。

And if you break down Newcastle's 65 points this season,

如果把紐卡索這季得分 65 分拆開來看，

you’ll see that it was driven by a very effective goal distribution:

就會發現該球隊的 進球分佈非常有效：

eight wins with one goal

八場勝利都只有一次進球，

and three major losses with more than three goals.

三次慘敗都輸到三球以上。

在統計上，

It's very unlikely statistically

to be able to repeat 65 points with a plus five goal difference.

很難再次出現 65 分搭配 +5 淨勝球數的狀況。

Another statistic a gambler trusts

賭徒信任的另一個統計數字，

is something called shot differential:

叫做淨射門數：

the difference between the number of shots a team produces

該球隊的射門總數

versus the number of shots the opponent produces.

和對手的射門總數差多少。

It's statistically very well-documented in football

足球有清楚記載的統計資料顯示，

that the best team over time produces more shots than the worst teams.

隨時間，最佳的球隊 產生的射門數多於最差的球隊。

So let's have a look at that.

咱們來看看這部份。

And as you can see,

各位可以看到，

Newcastle finished fifth with a total shot differential of -1.4.

紐卡索最後排名第五，

總淨射門數是 -1.4。

Clearly they don't belong in this company.

很顯然他們不是這一掛的。

This indicates unsustainably high conversion rate.

這表示

轉換率高到不可能維持。

When you have a positive goal difference

當你有正的淨勝球數，

driven by a negative shot differential,

背後卻是負的淨射球數，

it indicates unsustainably high conversion rates.

就表示轉換率高到不可能維持。

How many of those shots were converted to goals?

有多少次射門變成進球？

And Newcastle had especially one player this season

這一季，紐卡索 有一位球員表現特別優異，

who stood out, Cisse, their top scorer.

西塞，他們的得分王。

A key component of their success.

他是他們成功的關鍵。

He converted 33 percent of his shots.

他的射門有 33% 會進球。

Ladies and gentlemen, that's a freaky number.

各位先生女士，這是很神的數字。

Here is how I would put it.

我會這樣說：

Newcastle's fifth place is the equivalent

紐卡索得了第五名，

若比喻成上市公司，

of a publicly traded company

having a very high share price

就是同時有非常高的股價 和非常低的客戶滿意度。

and a very low customer satisfaction at the same time.

You can have that for one year,

可能有一年會有這種狀況，

but you can't maintain that over time.

但不可能長時間維持。

Here's a visualization of how a gambler perceived the situation.

用視覺化的方式來看看 賭徒怎麼看這個情況。

The black line shows the number of points Newcastle achieved

黑線表示兩個球季中紐卡索的得分，

throughout those two seasons

when they were fifth and when there were 16th.

他們排名第五和十六的那兩個球季。

The red line is the underlying performance,

紅線則是潛在的表現，

what a gambler calls expected points.

賭徒稱之為預期得分。

So as you can see,

如各位所見，

Newcastle got a lot more points in the first season

最後排名第五的那一季，

紐卡索的得分遠高於 校正之後的潛在表現。

when they finished fifth,

than the underlying performance justified.

Actually, Newcastle performed almost the same way in those two seasons.

事實上，紐卡索的表現 在這兩季幾乎一樣。

They just got less lucky.

只是運氣變差了。

And this reframes the original question.

這就要重新改述原本的問題。

Because why did Newcastle’s management team not see this downturn coming?

因為，為什麼紐卡索的管理團隊

沒預見這個下降趨勢？

Why did they decide to reward the head coach with a historic, long,

為何他們決定要用牢不可破的 超長合約來獎賞總教頭，

unbreakable contract

when the results were clearly unsustainable?

明明結果很明顯就不可能維持下去？

I believe that Newcastle was blinded

我相信

紐卡索是被最常見的 一種管理錯覺給矇蔽了：

by one the most common management delusions,

what psychologists call outcome bias.

心理學家稱之為結果偏誤。

The assumption that good results

也就是假設好的結果

are always the consequence of good decisions

一定就是好決策 和優異表現所造成的。

and superior performance.

Or, let’s put it in another way:

或者，換一種說法：

success turns luck into genius.

成功會把運氣看成才華。

And this is where the message becomes about much more

此時，這個啟示就能 大大延伸到足球分析以外了。

than just football analytics, right?

Because when an organization fails,

因為當組織失敗時，

it becomes very natural for us to dig for reasons,

我們很自然會去探究原因，

to ask the tough questions.

去問艱難的問題。

Why did we fail?

我們為什麼失敗？

How can we do things better?

怎樣才能做得更好？

But when we are successful, we don't ask those questions.

當我們成功時，反而不會問那些問題，

We tend to just cruise on blinded by outcome bias.

我們常常就自滿而行， 被結果偏誤矇蔽。

We expect results to continue automatically.

我們期望結果會自動延續， 不會去深究結果，並問：

We don’t dig into them and ask,

“What was actually the underlying reason for the success?”

「這次成功背後 真正的原因是什麼？」

Was it because of the oil price?

是因為油價嗎？

Was it because of good leadership

是因為好的領導嗎？

or because of exceptional market conditions?

或者是因為獨特的市場條件？

你認為有多少公司會分不清楚

How many companies do you think confuse good leadership

好的領導和好的市場條件？

with good market conditions?

Here's the thing.

重點來了，成功的組織

Successful organizations should think more like a good gambler.

應該要用好賭徒的方式思考。

Because a good gambler has trained his brain

因為好賭徒

已經訓練他的大腦 能夠抵抗人類天生傾向，

to resist the human tendency

to assume that good outcomes always mean that someone acted brilliantly.

所以不會去假設好的結果 一定表示有人做得很出色。

A good gambler treats success with the same skepticism

不論看待成功或失敗， 都會用同樣的懷疑心態。

as he treats failure.

And this is what successful organizations should do too,

成功的組織也應該這麼做，

if they want to stay relevant:

才能保有地位：

ask themselves the questions of a gambler.

用賭徒會問的問題來問自己。

Why were we actually successful?

我們到底為什麼成功？

How do we separate luck from skill?

我們如何把運氣和技能分開？

Is it possible that our league table sometimes lied too?

有沒有可能

我們的聯賽排行榜有時也會騙人？

Thank you very much.

非常謝謝。