The US vs. Itself — and Other Top Global Risks in 2024 | Ian Bremmer | TED

翻译人员: Lovelle Liu 校对人员: Bruce Wang

Helen Walters: Hello everyone.

海伦·沃尔特斯：大家好。

Happy 2024 wherever you are.

无论你身在何处，2024 年快乐。

It is January 8, and I don't know about you, but here at TED,

今天是1月8日。我原本不认识你， 但在TED这个平台上，

we are looking forward to the year ahead with a sense of nervous anticipation.

我们怀着紧张与期待展望来年。

As we all know, there is a lot going on,

众所周知，发生了很多事情，

from war on multiple fronts to upcoming elections

从多条战线的战争， 到即将举行的选举。

that some say will determine no less than the future of democracy.

有人说这些选举将决定民主政体的未来。

This is big, this is concerning.

这件事很大，令人担忧。

It's often slightly confounding.

通常有点令人困惑。

So given all that, we want to move forward with eyes wide open,

因此，鉴于所有这些， 我们希望向前迈进的同时开眼看世界，

and who better to help us understand exactly what to pay attention to this year

没有谁能够比 欧亚集团和GZERO媒体总裁伊恩·布雷默

than president of Eurasia Group and GZERO media, Ian Bremmer.

更好地帮助我们了解今年要注意什么。

Ian, hi,

伊恩，你好。

Ian Bremmer: Helen, good to be with you.

伊恩·布雷默：海伦，很高兴见到你。

HW: So, Ian, you've just published your annual list of Top Risks for 2024,

HW：所以，伊恩，你刚刚发布了 2024年年度最大风险清单，

and I want to dive right in.

我想马上深入了解一下。

The very first one that you describe is called "the United States versus itself."

你描述的第一个问题叫做 “美国与自身”。

So tell us.

来谈谈吧。

IB: Helen, the United States today

IB：海伦，今天的美国

has an incredibly strong economy and military.

拥有令人难以置信的强劲 经济和军事力量。

Its political system is in crisis.

它的政治制度正处于危机之中。

The US is the only advanced industrial democracy

美国是唯一无法

that cannot ensure a free and fair transition of power

确保被大多数民众视为合法的自由 和公平权力

that is seen as legitimate by a majority of its population.

移交的先进工业民主国家。

That is what we are looking at in 2024,

这就是我们在2024年所展望的，

and it's happening against a context

它发生在

of a geopolitical environment that is very deeply unstable,

地缘政治环境非常不稳定的背景下，

with a major war between Russia and Ukraine,

俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的战争

which is nowhere close to ending,

尚未结束，

with a major war between Israel and Hamas,

以色列和哈马斯之间的战争

which is nowhere close to ending.

也远未平息。

And so both allies of the United States are deeply concerned about this,

因此，美国的两个盟国都对此深感担忧，

and adversaries are looking to take advantage.

对手正在寻求利用这一优势。

Now for 2024,

现在，到2024年，

we won't have a new president

我们国家不会产生新的总统。

if there is a new president, that's next year.

产生新的总统，要等到明年。

So why is it so risky now?

那么为什么现在风险如此高？

Well, it's so risky now because the country is so divided

好吧，现在风险很大， 因为这个国家非常分裂，

and because Trump is likely to get the nomination

也因为特朗普获得提名的可能性极大，

overwhelmingly likely, and when he does,

而当他获得提名时，

his policy pronouncements will drive the GOP.

他的政策声明将推动共和党的发展。

And they are not right now, as of today.

而且截至今天，它们现在还不是。

So in other words, overnight, he will gain the loyalty,

因此，换句话说，一夜之间， 他将获得忠诚，

regain the loyalty of the overwhelming majority of Republican leaders

重新获得绝大多数共和党领导人

in state legislatures, in the House, in the Senate,

在州议会、众议院、参议院的拥护，

and of Republican-leaning and right-leaning media outlets

以及拥护共和派和右倾的媒体的忠诚，

and, of course, the ability to raise money and deploy that money for the election.

当然，他还有能力筹集资金， 并将这笔资金用于选举。

And that means that his policy orientations,

这意味着他的政策取向，

as he expresses them,

正如他所表达的那样，

whether it's cutting off Zelensky and the Ukrainians

无论是切断与泽伦斯基 和乌克兰人的联系，

or showing the Iranians what's what,

还是向伊朗人展示真实情况，

and that's why they wouldn't have gone to war

这就是为什么如果他当总统，

against Israel and the US if he had been president,

他们就不会对以色列和美国开战，

unlike Biden.

这和拜登的做法大相径庭。

Or in terms of the border,

或者在边境方面，

vis a vis the Mexicans, any other issues,

对墨西哥人而言，任何其他问题，

those are suddenly going to be drivers of one half of the US political system.

这些问题都会突然成为 美国一半政治制度的驱动力。

So it's a deeply concerning political environment,

因此，这是一个令人深感担忧的 政治环境，

and one that the United States is not in a position to respond to effectively.

也是美国无法有效应对的环境。

HW: So, Ian, you've written

HW：所以，伊恩，你写道，

that there is an unlikely but plausible possibility

这是一种不太可能但看似合理的可能性，

that the US won't actually even be able to hold a free and fair election

美国甚至无法在11月5日举行

on November 5.

自由公正的选举。

We're going to talk more

我们将更多地讨论

about the impact of artificial intelligence in a little bit,

人工智能的影响，

but the reality is that we have seen the impact of misinformation

但现实是，我们已经看到过错误信息

on elections before.

对先前选举的影响。

But in the ensuing time, things have gotten much [worse],

但是在随后的时间里， 情况变得【更糟】了，

much quicker.

速度要快得多。

So what should we be watching for there,

那么，我们应该对此关注什么，

and how do you think that is going to play out in November in the US?

你认为11月在美国会发生什么情况呢？

IB: Well, the United States, as the most powerful country in the world

IB：嗯，美国作为世界上最强大的国家

and as a political democracy, which is in crisis,

和处于危机的政治民主国家 ，

the most vulnerable part of the United States

最脆弱的部分

is its political system

是其政治制度，

and is specifically its 2024 election.

特别是2024年的选举。

That is the Achilles heel for the United States.

这是美国的致命弱点。

When I speak with the intelligence leaders in the United States,

当我与美国情报领导人交谈时，

they say that is what they are most concerned about.

他们说这是他们最关心的问题。

It's the vulnerability of the US election.

这是美国大选的脆弱性。

It's not the Russians attacking the Americans militarily,

不是俄罗斯人对美国人进行军事攻击，

it's not a big fight with the Chinese,

也不是与中国人发生大战，

it's not Iran,

也不是伊朗，

it's the vulnerability of the US elections.

而是美国大选的脆弱性。

And that vulnerability is a comparatively complex

从国土安全的角度来看

and soft target from a homeland security perspective.

这种漏洞是一个相对复杂的软目标。

Especially because Americans don't live in the same information environment.

特别是因为美国人生活 在不同的信息环境中。

You know, we talk about climate change around the world,

你知道，当我们在谈论 世界各地的气候变化时，

and everyone agrees that there's 1.2 degrees of warming.

所有人都同意有1.2度的变暖。

Everyone agrees there's 442 parts per million of carbon in the atmosphere.

所有人都同意，大气中有 百万分之442的碳。

When you talk about the US political system,

但是当你谈论美国的政治制度时，

everyone does not agree

所有人都不同意

that Trump tried illegally to overturn an election.

特朗普试图非法推翻选举。

I mean, in a normal democracy, in a well-functioning democracy,

我想说，在一个正常的民主国家， 在一个内部机构运转良好的民主国家，

that would obviously be the top issue of debate

这显然会成为选举中最重要的

in the election.

辩论问题。

Is the fact that you're thinking about re-electing someone

事实是，你正在考虑连任一个

that is, you know, not interested in a democratic election.

事实上对民主选举不感兴趣的人。

That is not what is happening presently in the United States.

这不是美国目前正在发生的事情。

Not at all.

一点都不是。

And that is not Trump's fault.

这不是特朗普的错。

Trump is a symptom, a very serious symptom

“特朗普”是一种症状，

of the fact that US institutions have been delegitimized over decades.

是几十年来美国机构被剥夺合法性 的一个非常严重的症状。

And it's getting worse.

而且情况越来越糟。

And he's a very happy beneficiary of that reality.

而且非常高兴成为这种现状的受益者。

So, yes, I do worry

所以，是的，我确实担心

that American political institutions,

美国的政治机构，

and specifically, the electoral procedures are vulnerable to that,

特别是选举程序容易受到影响，

especially because the stakes are so much higher this time around.

尤其是因为这次的风险要高得多。

The stakes are higher for Biden and his team

拜登及其团队面临的风险更高，

because they believe that they may face an end

因为他们认为，他们可能会面临

to an effective multi-party transfer of power over time

一段时间内有效的多党权利移交的终结，

if Trump wins.

如果特朗普在大选中获胜的话。

A lot of them individually believe that they would face legal jeopardy

他们中的许多人个人认为， 如果特朗普掌权，

from a politicized Department of Justice or FBI or IRS

他们将面临来自政治化的司法部、 联邦调查局或国税局

if Trump is in power.

的法律危险。

They absolutely say that privately.

他们绝对是私下里这么说的。

And of course, Trump believes, to himself,

当然，特朗普自己认为，

much more dangerous than the end of democracy,

这比民主权利的终结要危险得多，

Trump believes that he would face jail,

特朗普认为，他可能会面临监禁，

he and maybe even members of his family,

他的家庭成员也可能面临监禁，

if he were to lose the election.

如果他在大选中落败的话。

So the stakes are very high indeed in the United States.

因此，在美国的风险确实很高。

They're very high indeed outside the United States.

在美国以外的地区也确实很高。

HW: I think the reality that you're describing is that whoever wins,

HW：我认为你所 描述的现实是，无论谁获胜，

whoever the nominees are, Biden, Trump,

无论提名人是拜登还是特朗普，

whoever wins,

无论谁获胜，

things aren't necessarily going to get better, right?

情况都不一定会好起来，对吧？

IB: Yeah, I guess I'm trying to say

IB：是的，我想说

that neither Biden nor Trump

拜登和特朗普

have the capacity and the willingness

都没有能力和意愿

to try to fix this.

来解决这个问题。

I don't believe that Trump is interested,

我认为特朗普不感兴趣，

never mind having the capacity.

更不用说有能力了。

I believe that he benefits.

我相信他会从中受益。

He believes he benefits from referring to his adversaries politically as enemies,

他认为，将政治上的对手称为敌人，

as enemies of the people.

人民的敌人对他有好处。

And as painting them as an existential threat

就像将它们描绘成

to the Republic of the United States.

对美国共和党的生存威胁一样。

You know, they're Marxists, they're communists,

你知道，他们是马克思主义者， 他们是共产党人，

it's a new McCarthyism, if you will.

这是一种新的麦卡锡主义。

And that Biden

而且，拜登

certainly has the willingness

当然愿意

to try to fix this yawning divide

去努力解决

in the United States.

美国的这一巨大分歧。

But four years of being president hasn't fixed it, right?

但是担任总统的四年里 他并没有解决这个问题，对吧？

I mean, there was a belief among many Biden supporters

我的意思是，许多拜登支持者

that if you elected this guy,

认为，如果他被选中，

that the United States was going to be able to become more normal,

美国将能够变得更加正常，

and Biden has had a lot of legislative successes,

拜登在立法方面取得了很多成功，

his infrastructure package that was bipartisan,

他的基础设施计划是两党的，

that Trump was unable to pass,

特朗普没能通过，

the Inflation Reduction Act, misnamed,

《通胀削减法案》，名称错误，

but nonetheless significant amounts of money

但是尽管如此，仍然有大量资金

for investment into red and blue-state jobs,

被投入于改善红蓝州工作岗位，

more red-state than blue-state jobs,

红州比蓝州多，

other policies as well.

他颁布的其他措施也是这样。

And yet the divisions in the United States,

然而，美国的分歧，

the dysfunction of the US political system,

美国政治制度的失调，

the perceived illegitimacy of major US political institutions and the media,

美国主要政治机构和媒体的非法性，

has only increased under four years of Biden.

只在拜登任职的四年内才有所增加。

So you have this very unusual environment

因此，你处在一个非常不寻常的环境中，

where the most powerful leaders in the country

全国权力最大的领袖

are not able to fix the problem.

无法解决问题。

And it's not like there's any diplomacy that's happening between them.

而且他们之间不像正在进行任何外交。

I mean, the interesting thing about our view of the Top Risks of 2024

我的意思是，我们 对2024年最大风险的看法的有趣之处

is that you have these three major conflicts,

在于，这三次主要的冲突，

three major wars that are essentially happening in the world.

三场重大战争， 本质上是在世界范围内发生的。

You've got, you know, Russia-Ukraine,

你知道，有俄乌战争，

which is now entering its third year,

现在已经进入第三个年头，

You've got Israel-Hamas,

还有以色列-哈马斯，

which is in its third month.

已经进入第三个月。

And then you've got the US versus itself,

然后是美国对抗自身，

which is kicking off right now.

正在拉开序幕。

And in all three of those cases,

在所有这三个事件中，

there's no plausible environment in the coming year

未来一年没有合理的环境

where diplomacy is going to reduce those tensions,

能够通过外交手段缓和紧张局势，

is going to end or even contain that conflict.

结束甚至 遏制冲突的合理环境。

And in all three of those wars,

在所有三场战争中，

the leaders do not share the same information space.

领导人共享的信息空间并不相同。

They don't even agree on the same basic set of facts.

他们甚至没有就同样的基本事实达成共识。

And that is an unprecedentedly dangerous geopolitical environment

海伦，这是你我一生中前所未有的

in your and my lifetimes, Helen.

危险的地缘政治环境。

HW: So let's talk about these international conflicts.

HW：那么让我们来谈谈这些 国际冲突。

So you mentioned three of them,

所以你提到了其中的三个，

one, the United States versus itself.

其中一个是美国与自身。

Let's turn to the Middle East.

让我们来谈谈中东。

Let's talk about what's going on with Israel-Hamas.

让我们来谈谈以色列-哈马斯的情况。

Do you feel like this is going to spiral into a broader conflict?

你觉得这将演变为更广泛的冲突吗？

IB: I do, I do.

IB：我认为是这样。

I'm not confident

我不确定

exactly what the avenue of that escalation is likely to be,

冲突升级的途径可能是什么，

but I'm very confident there are so many avenues that that escalation can occur.

但我非常确切地说 这种升级可能发生的途径有很多。

And it's not within the capacity of the United States

而且，美国

or other major countries around the world

或者世界其他主要国家

or in the region to contain it.

或该地区没有能力遏制它。

And let's talk about a few.

让我们来谈一谈其中的一些。

One, of course, is Hezbollah

当然，其中之一是真主党

and the northern border between Israel and Lebanon.

和以色列和黎巴嫩之间的北部边界的冲突。

And that fighting, as we speak, is escalating.

就在我们发言的时候， 这场战斗正在升级。

The missiles from Hezbollah into Israel,

真主党向以色列发射导弹，

the Israeli assassination of a Hamas political leader in Beirut,

以色列在贝鲁特暗杀哈马斯政治领导人，

the willingness of the Israeli defense forces to go against Hezbollah targets,

以色列国防军对抗真主党目标的意愿，

That is escalating.

这种情况正在升级。

And it's not just Prime Minister Netanyahu,

不仅是内塔尼亚胡总理，

though he's very relevant,

尽管他非常重要，

because if the war is over, he's going to be out of power,

因为如果战争结束，他将下台，

and he could very well face jail,

并且很可能会面临监禁。

but it's also the entire Israeli war cabinet

但是这也是整个以色列战争内阁

that believes that they cannot end this war

相信他们无法结束这场战争

and allow actors in the region

并且允许该地区内

that believe that Israel has no right to exist,

认为以色列没有继续生存的权利的行动者，

they can't allow them to maintain power the way they did

他们不允许他们像以前那样保持权力

in the status quo ante before October 7.

像10月7日之前那样。

And that's not just "destroying" Hamas,

这不只是 “摧毁” 哈马斯，

however that is defined to be,

不管怎么定义，

but also,

而且

Hezbollah operating right on the border

真主党在边境活动，

in contravention of the UN Security Council resolution.

这违反了联合国安理会的决议。

So they intend to back Hezbollah off of that,

因此，他们打算支持真主党摆脱困境，

to degrade their capacity to attack Israel to a degree.

在一定程度上削弱他们攻击以色列 的能力。

There's also a willingness of the Israelis to see that happen

以色列人也希望看到

with the Houthis in Yemen,

也门的胡塞武装发生这种情况

with Iraqi and Syrian radical Shia proxies

与伊朗政府的伊拉克和叙利亚激进什叶派

of the Iranian government.

代理人一起。

The United States is now increasingly actively fighting

现在，美国越来越积极地

all of those actors in Yemen, in Iraq and in Syria,

与也门、伊拉克和叙利亚的 所有行为者作战，

and increasingly looks like it might be willing to target Houthis

而且似乎越来越愿意自己

in their Yemeni bases themselves.

在也门基地瞄准胡塞武装。

And that's even before we talk about the radicalization

甚至在我们谈论世界各地

of millions of Palestinians

数百万巴勒斯坦人

and their fellow Arab and Muslim supporters

及其阿拉伯和穆斯林支持者的

all over the world

激进化之前，

on the back of the suffering that they are experiencing,

他们所经历的苦难

principally, but not only, in Gaza.

主要是，但不仅限于加沙。

Gaza is not livable right now for two-plus million Palestinians,

对于超过两百万的巴勒斯坦人 来说，加沙目前无法居住，

but they have nowhere to go.

但他们无处可去。

Those pressures are going to grow.

这些压力将越来越大。

The Israeli government will be calling for their removal,

以色列政府将呼吁将他们迁移到

into other territories like the Sinai,

西奈半岛等其他领土

which will be seen to be ethnic cleansing by almost everyone else,

包括美国的拜登政府

including the Biden administration in the United States.

在内的几乎所有其他人都会将其视为种族清洗。

That radicalization will lead to lone-wolf violence

这种激进化将导致孤狼暴力

and terrorist attacks,

和恐怖袭击，

will lead to coordinated terrorist attacks,

将导致协调一致的恐怖袭击，

not just in the region,

不仅在该地区，

but also in Europe, also in the United States.

而且在欧洲、美国也是如此。

So when you add all of that up,

因此，当你把所有这些加在一起时，

what you see is that it is much easier

你会看到的是，

to understand how this conflict will escalate substantially over 2024

要理解这场冲突 在2024年将如何大幅升级

than threading a needle to see how you might be able to contain it,

要比用针头看看 如何能够遏制冲突要容易得多，

largely to Israel versus Hamas

主要是指在加沙这片

in this tiny strip of land that two-plus million Palestinians

200多万巴勒斯坦人 试图赖以生存的小片土地上，

are trying to live on, in Gaza.

主要是以色列对抗哈马斯。

That is where we are right now in the Middle East.

这就是我们目前在中东的情况。

And this is deeply concerning for the United States,

这让美国深感担忧，

because the US, in their support of this Israeli war,

因为在美国， 在他们对以色列战争的支持中，

is more isolated on the global stage

比俄罗斯人更加孤立，

than the Russians were, even when they invaded Ukraine

同样，俄罗斯人在两年之前入侵乌克兰时

two years ago.

也是如此。

And this also is a serious problem,

这也是一个非常严重的问题，

not just for US projection of power around the world,

不仅对美国在世界各地的力量投射，

especially with the global South,

特别是在全球南方中，

but also domestically

而且对拜登在国内的

among Biden's Democratic supporters,

民主党支持者来说也是如此，

a majority of whom are more inclined to support the Palestinian cause

他们中的大多数人更倾向于支持巴勒斯坦

than the Israeli cause.

而不是以色列。

And so this is, as the conflict escalates,

因此，随着冲突的升级，

a proximate danger to Biden's re-election efforts,

这是拜登连任努力面临的直接威胁，

which he is keenly aware of but has very little he can do about it.

他敏锐地意识到了这一点， 但对此几乎无能为力。

HW: Right, the interconnections and the tangled web

HW：是的，相互联系 和错综复杂的网络

becomes ever more tangled as more actors get involved.

由于越来越多的行动者的参与 变得越来越混乱。

This is a really like, a stupid, deliberately stupid question.

这是一个非常愚蠢， 甚至是蓄意愚蠢的问题。

But do you feel like any hopes for a two-state solution are vapor?

但是，你觉得两国解决方案的 任何希望都化为泡影吗？

IB: They're not vapor, but they ain't close.

IB：它们不是遥不可及的， 但距离不近。

I mean, I don't see, in the foreseeable future, "security,"

我的意思是， 在可预见的将来，“安全”，

if I can use that term,

——如果我能用这个词的话，

will be provided by Israel and not by anybody else.

将会由以色列 而不是其他任何人提供。

And you know, what that means in the context of Gaza is hard to define.

而且你知道，这 在加沙的背景下意味着什么很难定义。

It's mostly about security for the Israelis.

这主要与以色列人的安全有关。

It's not about security for the Palestinians, but long-term,

这与巴勒斯坦人的安全无关， 但从长远来看，

you can't have a two-state solution unless you have effective governance

不可能会有两国的解决方案， 除非你拥有

that is seen as legitimate by Palestinians living in Gaza and the West Bank,

居住在加沙和约旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦人 认为合法的有效治理，

and the ability to defend themselves.

并且有能力自卫。

The Israelis have made it very clear, they have a right to defend themselves.

以色列人已经明确表示， 他们有权自卫。

And that has failed,

但这失败了，

in part because the Israeli government was asleep at the switch

部分原因是以色列政府

before October 7.

在10月7日之前玩忽职守。

Israeli intelligence, defense forces and, most importantly,

以色列情报部门、国防军队， 以及，最重要的是

their prime minister and government, who had other priorities.

他们的总理和政府， 还有其他优先事项。

And also because they are surrounded by a number of organizations

还因为他们被许多组织，

that do not recognize their right to exist in the territory of Israel.

拒绝承认他们在以色列领土上 生存权的组织所包围。

So, absolutely,

因此，可以肯定的说，

the Israelis have a right to ensure the security of their people.

以色列人绝对有权确保其人民的安全。

But the Palestinians have that right, too.

但是巴勒斯坦人同样也有这个权利。

The difference is that the Israelis not only have the right,

区别在于，以色列人不仅有权利，

they also have the capacity.

而且有能力。

They've got Iron Dome,

他们还有很大一部分

provided in large part by the United States,

由美国提供的

financed as well.

Iron Dome资助。

They've got an incredible asymmetrical military advantage,

他们拥有不可思议的不对等的军事优势，

not only over the Palestinians, but over everyone in the region.

不仅对巴勒斯坦人， 而且比该地区的所有人更胜一筹。

They only need to apply it effectively.

他们只需要有效地应用它即可。

And apply it effectively without killing tens of thousands of civilians, right?

而且在不杀死成千上万平民的情况下 有效地应用它，对吧？

While the Palestinians have the right to self-defense,

尽管巴勒斯坦人拥有自卫权，

as is continually enshrined in votes at the General Assembly

正如在大会中的投票所不断体现的，

by the vast majority of countries from all over the world,

投票包括世界各地绝大多数国家，

including American allies,

包括美国盟友在内，

they just don't have the ability.

他们只是没有自卫能力。

And you can't talk about a two-state solution

而且，你无法谈论两国的解决方案，

until you can get the Palestinians

直到巴勒斯坦人有能力

the ability to govern themselves and defend themselves.

自我统治和自我防卫。

And we are very, very, very far away from that.

而且我们离这个还很远。

And since we're just talking about 2024 today,

而且，由于我们今天只是在谈论2024年，

there is no two-state solution in the cards for 2024.

因此2024年没有两国解决方案可用。

As we think about a longer- term environment,

在我们考虑长期环境时，

there will be no peace in the region

该地区不会有和平，

until you find a plausible solution

除非你找到一个可行的解决方案，

that is sustainable,

并且可持续实施，

where Palestinians feel like they can raise their children

让巴勒斯坦人感到他们可以

with security and economic opportunity.

在安全和有经济机会的环境下 抚养下一代。

We would all want only that for our kids,

我们都只想把它送给我们的孩子，

and they presently do not have that.

而他们现在没有。

They don't have anything remotely close to that.

他们没有什么能与之相去甚远的东西。

HW: Alright, so one of the other risks that you determine in the report

HW：好吧，所以你在报告中 确定的其他风险之一

is one of "partitioned Ukraine,"

是 “分裂的乌克兰”，

which is not a phrase that Ukrainians are going to be excited about,

这不是会让乌克兰人为之兴奋的短语，

but it's one that you actually think is going to become a reality in 2024.

但你实际上认为 它将在2024年成为现实。

So tell us what's going on here.

所以告诉我们这里发生了什么。

IB: Yeah, I want to be clear that writing about partitioned Ukraine

IB：是的，我想明确一点， 写关于分裂的乌克兰的文章

is not a personal preference.

不是个人喜好。

It is not something I think we should want.

我认为这不是我们应该想要的东西。

It is not something that the Ukrainians will recognize.

这不是乌克兰人会承认的。

It is not something Ukrainian friends and allies will recognize.

这不是乌克兰的朋友和盟友会承认的。

But, Helen, you and I know that there are many things in the world

但是，海伦，你我都知道 世界上有很多我们想要的东西，

that we want that are not so.

但事实并非如此。

And it turns out that we live with them for a very long time.

事实证明，我们和他们一起生活 了很长时间。

I mean, the North Koreans,

我的意思是，朝鲜人，

we do not accept that they have nuclear weapons.

我们不接受他们拥有核武器。

They don't really care if we accept it.

他们真的不在乎我们是否接受。

They have nuclear weapons.

他们有核武器。

Denuclearization is not happening, right?

无核化没有发生，对吧？

So that's a reality.

所以这是现实。

Ukraine is presently partitioned.

乌克兰目前处于分治状态。

And their ability,

他们的能力，

as much as the Americans, in principle,

像美国人一样，原则上

would like them to be able to take their land back,

希望他们能够夺回自己的土地，

and they have every right to be able to do so,

而且他们完全有权这样做，

the invasions in 2014

2014年的入侵

and then in 2022, right,

以及2022年的入侵

were illegal.

是非法的。

The Ukrainians did nothing, to, you know, force them.

你知道，乌克兰人没有 采取任何措施来强迫他们。

And yet they can't take their land back.

但是他们无法夺回自己的土地。

The American ability and willingness to continue to lead

美国继续

in providing military support

在提供军事支持方面发挥领导作用 的能力和意愿，

that would allow the Ukrainians to get the 18 percent of their land

这将使乌克兰人拿回18%的土地，

that is presently occupied by the Russians

这些土地目前被俄罗斯人占领，

and has been for a year now,

并且已经持续了一年，

that just does not exist in 2024.

但这种情况在2024年根本不存在。

And in fact, the bigger danger is that the trajectory of this war

事实上，更大的危险是这场战争的轨迹

is at a turning point.

正处于转折点。

And that not only will the Ukrainians not be able to get their land back,

这不仅将使乌克兰人 无法收回自己的土地，

but that they might not have the people to continue to fight

而且他们可能无法让人民

to keep the land they presently have.

继续为保留他们目前拥有的土地而战。

And that their ability to get ongoing support,

而且，他们获得持续的支持的能力，

especially from the Americans,

尤其是美国人的支持，

when this is becoming a political divide in the US,

当这正在成为美国内部的政治分歧时，

far away,

还远远不够，

Israel-Palestine -- higher priority,

以色列和巴勒斯坦——更高的优先级，

US elections -- higher priority.

美国大选——更重要的优先事项。

Trump, if he's elected, at least 50-50,

特朗普，如果他当选，至少是50-50，

I'd put it a little higher than that, frankly,

我会说比这高一点，坦率地说

though, I don't have a lot of confidence around it,

我对此没有太大的信心，

would end support to Zelensky, no question.

毫无疑问特朗普将终止对泽连斯基的支持。

This is going to make the Ukrainians feel incredibly vulnerable

这将使乌克兰人感到异常脆弱，

and increasingly desperate.

越来越绝望。

That is what we're looking at in 2024.

这就是我们在2024年要考虑的问题。

And of course, that not only threatens Ukraine's territorial integrity ongoing,

当然，这不仅威胁到 乌克兰的持续领土完整

and Zelensky as a leader,

以及其领导人泽连斯基，

but it also threatens the integrity of the transatlantic alliance,

还威胁到跨大西洋联盟的完整性，

which had been getting stronger over the last couple of years

跨大西洋联盟在俄罗斯入侵后的过去几年中

post Russian invasion,

变得越来越强大，

and threatens the integrity of NATO as an ongoing alliance,

并威胁到北约作为持续联盟的完整性，

the most important military alliance on the planet today

这是当今世界上最重要的军事联盟。

So there's a lot going on here.

因此，这里发生了很多事情。

And presently, the outcomes don't look great.

而目前，结果看起来并不理想。

HW: So you have an interesting phrase in the report

HW：所以你在报告中有一句有趣的话.

that stated "Ukraine is at risk of losing,

说：“乌克兰有输的危险，

Russia has no way to win."

俄罗斯没有办法获胜。”

So what does that stalemate actually look like in practical terms?

那么，从实际角度来看， 这种僵局到底是什么样子呢？

IB: So Ukraine is at risk of losing.

IB：乌克兰有输掉的风险。

Ukraine doesn't have to lose.

乌克兰不必输。

There are still outcomes where the Ukrainians can win,

乌克兰人仍然有机会获胜，

even though they will be de facto partitioned.

尽管事实上他们要被分裂，

Now, that may not sound easy,

现在，这听起来可能并不容易，

and it's not.

事实并非如此。

But let me throw you out a scenario

但是，让我来设定一个情景，

where the Americans are able to provide another 20, 30 billion dollars this year,

即美国人今年能够 再提供200亿到300亿美元，

the Europeans continue to provide significant economic support,

欧洲人能继续提供大量经济支持，

harder with the Hungarians opposing,

即使在匈牙利人反对，

harder with the Germans and their emergency budget situation,

以及德国人预算紧急的状况下，

but it can happen.

但这是可能的。

And some of that could be taken,

其中一些可以被取代，

some of the frozen assets, legally problematic, of Russia

一些被冻结的俄罗斯资产， 在法律上存在问题，

and applying them to Ukrainian reconstruction.

然后将其用于乌克兰的重建。

On top of that, you fast-track

最重要的是，乌克兰快速实现

EU integration and reform in Ukraine,

欧盟一体化和改革，

and you fast-track NATO membership,

快速加入北约，

which cannot happen tomorrow.

这在明天是不可能发生的。

But it could happen within, you know, say, you get all the countries together,

但是，你知道，比如说， 在你把所有国家，即北约盟国聚集起来，

the NATO allies, and say, within two, three years

然后说，在两三年内

you're going to provide them NATO membership.

你要向他们提供北约成员资格， 这可能会发生。

It will not include territory that the Russians are occupying

它将不包括俄罗斯人占领的领土，

because you're not going to go to war directly with the Russians,

因为乌克兰人不会直接与俄罗斯人开战，

but it will mean that these countries will defend Ukraine

但这意味着这些国家

in the remaining territory.

将在剩余的领土上保卫乌克兰。

That is a narrow path.

那是一条狭窄的道路。

But if it happens,

但是，如果发生这种情况，

you will have 80 percent of Ukrainian territory

乌克兰80%的领土上

that has a far better trajectory for their people

的人民生活轨迹

than Ukraine ever could have imagined

将比乌克兰在俄罗斯人没有入侵的情况下

had the Russians not invaded.

所能想象的要好得多。

None of that, none of that will make good

所有这些都无法弥补

the eight million people who have been displaced,

800万流离失所的难民，

the tens of thousands that have had war crimes committed against them,

成千上万对他们犯下战争罪行的人，

the children that have been abducted and forced into Russia

被绑架并被迫进入俄罗斯的儿童，

and on and on and on.

以及许许多多其他受害者。

I am not minimizing the crimes that have been committed

我并没有对他们所犯下的罪行轻描淡写，

that they will remember for generations in Ukraine.

那些罪行将在乌克兰被世世代代所铭记。

But I'm saying that Ukraine still has a path to win,

但我要说的是，乌克兰仍然有机会获胜，

given what their country looked like and was facing

鉴于他们的国家

before 2022

在2022年之前，

or before 2014.

或者说在2014年之前的 境况及所面临的局势。

But irrespective of whether Ukraine can accomplish that or will lose,

但是，无论乌克兰 能实现这一目标还是会输掉，

the Russians will not win.

俄罗斯人都不会获胜。

And what I mean by that

我的意思是，

is Russia absolutely will be able to maintain control

俄罗斯绝对能够维持

of a strip of Ukrainian territory.

对乌克兰这片领土的控制。

Bombed out, right?

被炸毁了，对吧？

And not productive,

而且没有生产力，

and years, if not decades, to turn that land around economically.

要花几年，甚至几十年的时间 才能在经济上扭转这片土地的局面。

But Russia will now be facing the rest of Ukraine

但是俄罗斯现在将面对乌克兰其他地区 ，

with a visceral hatred for all things Russia for generations.

那里几代人对俄罗斯所做的一切 都怀有内在的仇恨。

I mean, think about, you know,

我的意思是，想一想，你知道，

sort of the Turkish genocide against the Armenians

土耳其对亚美尼亚人的种族灭绝，

and for how long that drove this historic enmity.

以及这种历史敌意持续了多长时间。

That's what we're talking about.

这就是我们正在谈论的。

This is like, you know, Hutu-Tutsi stuff, right,

这就像胡图-图西人的东西，

in Rwanda and Burundi,

在卢旺达和布隆迪，

That's what you're talking about.

这就是我们所要谈论的。

And you have an expanded NATO, including Finland,

而且北约已经扩大， 包括芬兰，

far more territory for the Russians to have to defend,

俄罗斯需要防御的军队要多得多，

which ostensibly was the reason

这表面上是

that the Russians went to war against Ukraine,

俄罗斯人对乌克兰开战的原因，

is because they didn't want NATO to be encroaching.

是因为他们不希望北约侵占。

Well they're encroaching a lot more now.

好吧，他们现在正在侵占更多。

Hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian assets

他们无法获得

that they will not have access to.

数千亿美元的俄罗斯财产。

Trade of Russia with the Europeans,

俄罗斯与欧洲人的贸易，

with the United States -- no more, right?

与美国的贸易——仅此而已，对吧？

I mean, the Germans,

我的意思是，德国人

much more quickly moving to a post-carbon energy transition

以更快的速度向后碳能源转型，

with no more Russian gas,

不在使用俄罗斯天然气，

because they cut the Russians off,

因为他们切断了与俄罗斯人的联系，

at enormous cost to Germany,

这让德国人遭受了巨大的代价。

but greater cost long-term to the Russians.

但从长远来看， 俄罗斯人付出了更大的代价。

Not to mention the million-plus Russian civilians

更不用说逃离的超过百万的俄罗斯平民，

who have fled: young men capable, smart,

有能力、聪明的年轻人

that got out of dodge to anywhere, to the Emirates, to Georgia,

逃走了，去了任何地方， 去了阿联酋航空，逃到了格鲁吉亚，

to anywhere that would accept them so they wouldn't have to fight.

去了任何可以接纳他们的地方， 这样他们就不必战斗了。

And those are people that you could have used productively in the Russian economy.

而这些人本可以在俄罗斯经济中才尽其用。

So, I mean, in this environment,

所以，我的意思是，在这种环境之下，

where Russia's only true friends, providing military support for them,

俄罗斯为数不多真正的盟友， 为他们提供军事支持，

are Belarus, North Korea, Iran, right,

是白俄罗斯、朝鲜、伊朗，对吧，

I mean, this is -- with friends like those, right?

我的意思是，这是 ——有这样的朋友，对吧？

I mean, there's no way.

我的意思是，没办法。

I understand that if you're a tanky,

我知道，如果你是他们

as they call it,

所说的坦克，

or if you're supported by the Kremlin

或者如果你得到克里姆林宫的支持，

and you're posting dutifully on Twitter/X

在推特/X上尽职尽责地发帖，

that you will oppose everything I just said

你就会反对我刚才所说的一切，

because it's your job.

因为这是你的工作。

But I mean, for those of us that take a blue sky approach,

但是我的意思是， 对于我们这些采取蓝天方法的人来说，

which is that we look at it and we kind of understand the science,

即我们观察蓝天并且了解科学，

it's impossible to say the Russians are winning here.

不可能说俄罗斯人能够获胜。

And that's a great cost to the rest of the world,

这对世界其他地区来说

to the rest of the world.

都是一笔巨大的代价。

This was the worst misjudgment, in my view,

在我看来，自隔离墙倒塌以来，

of any major leader on the global stage since the Wall came down,

全球舞台上的主要领导人所做出的 最糟糕的判断，

was Putin's decision to invade Ukraine in 2022.

是普京决定在2022年入侵乌克兰。

And not only was it a horrible decision,

这不仅是一个可怕的决定，

it was a horrible decision that was facilitated by the Americans

而且是一个得到美国和

and the Europeans,

欧洲人支持的糟透了的决定，

who, after the 2014 invasion, much smaller, didn't do anything.

他们在2014年入侵之后规模小得多， 没有采取任何行动。

In fact, they kept doing business with Russia as usual.

实际上，他们照常与俄罗斯做生意。

They hosted the World Cup, president said, "OK, we'll still go over."

他们主办了世界杯， 总统说：“好吧，我们还会仔细研究的。”

I mean, there were lots of signs that Putin got that said,

我的意思是，有很多迹象 表明普京明白了：

"These guys don't care.

“这些人根本不在乎。

So we're going to get away with this."

因此，我们将摆脱这种状况。”

And unfortunately, they were really, really wrong.

不幸的是，他们真的错了。

HW: All right, let's change subject a little bit.

HW：好吧，让我们稍微换个 话题。

We mentioned artificial intelligence earlier.

我们之前提到了人工智能。

And obviously, 2023 was the year in which generative AI went mainstream.

显然，2023年是 生成式人工智能成为主流的一年。

So it's exciting, and it's mind-blowing.

因此，这很令人兴奋，也令人难以置信。

And it's also led to something of a schism

这也导致了一些人之间的分裂，

between some people who are super excited about its creative potential

一部分人对它的创造潜力感到非常兴奋，

and then others who can't believe that we're barreling

而另一些人则不敢相信 我们正以如此冷淡的

towards existential end of humanity with such nonchalance.

态度冲向人类的生存终结。

So you just have to see the management drama at OpenAI

因此，您只需要看一下 发生在2023年底的OpenAI管理风波

that happened at the end of 2023 to understand some of the stakes here.

即可了解这里的一些利害关系。

But this isn't just about Silicon Valley,

但这不仅仅是硅谷内部的问题，

and I think it's important that we all recognize

我认为重要的是我们都要意识到

that this is actually going to affect all of us.

这实际上会影响我们所有人。

So what do you think we should be focused on

那么，你认为我们应该 在人工智能方面关注什么，

when it comes to AI, and what are we going to see in 2024?

2024年我们又能看到什么样的发展？

IB: I am both of those things.

IB：我认为应该从 两方面来看。

I'm an enormous enthusiast about AI.

我是人工智能的狂热爱好者。

I think it's a transformative technology for everyone that has access to it,

我认为对于所有有机会使用它的人来说， 它都是一项变革性技术，

and we're just seeing the beginnings of that.

而我们刚刚看到了它的开始。

One of the reasons I'm most excited about AI is because it is transformative

我对人工智能最兴奋的原因之一是，

它不仅在取代现有的 强大人员和机构方面具有变革性。

not just in displacing existing powerful people and institutions.

So climate change, people get very excited about the transition.

因此，气候变化，人们对这一转变 感到非常兴奋。

But to do that transition, you've got to end oil.

但是要实现这种过渡， 我们必须停止使用石油。

And so fossil fuel players and those that are attached to them,

因此，使用化石燃料的领域 以及与之相关的参与者、

infrastructure, transport and the rest, have a lot to lose.

基础设施、交通等，都将遭受很多损失。

AI, like, even if you're a coal miner,

人工智能，比如， 即使你是一名煤矿工人，

you can and will use AI to be much more effective at mining coal.

你也可以而且将会使用人工智能 来提高煤炭开采的效率。

You know, AI, you're like a traditional airline company.

你知道，人工智能， 就像一家传统的航空公司。

You can use AI to reduce, you know, energy intensity in the contrails.

可以使用人工智能来降低 轨迹中的能量强度。

You're going to do that tomorrow, right?

未来会那样做，对吧？

So it's astonishing how much uplift we will get from productivity

因此，我们可以提升的生产效率

and efficiency in every sector,

是令人惊讶的，

from all sorts of corporations and from individual workers,

来自各种各样的公司和个体工人，

by using these tools, by deploying these tools.

通过有效地利用这些工具。

So I'm very excited about how much we will get out of AI

因此，我对我们将从 人工智能中获得多少收益，

to unlock human potential broader and faster.

以更广泛、更快地释放人类潜力 感到非常兴奋。

But I don't spend much time talking about that, usually,

但我通常不会花太多时间 谈论这个问题，

because you've got a lot of people and companies

因为有很多的人和公司，

that are worth trillions of dollars collectively

他们总共价值数万亿美元，

that are spending all of their time and effort

付出他们所有的时间和努力

doing that as fast as humanly possible.

尽可能快地做到这一点。

And they have to, because if they don't,

而且他们必须这样做，因为如果他们不这样做，

they've got very smart and well bankrolled people breathing down their neck

他们就会有非常聪明、资金充足 的竞争对手威胁他们的地位，

that would be very happy to displace them, right?

他们会很乐意取代他们，对吧？

That's the principle AI displacement we're going to see

这是我们在未来24个月中

in the next 24 months,

将看到的主要人工智能取代，

will be of AI players that get taken out by other AI players

将是一种人工智能

because it's so cutthroat and fast.

如此残酷和快速地被其他人工智能淘汰。

But there aren't people that are spending their time thinking

但是，没有人愿意花时间思考

about what are the challenges for the common good.

他们的共同利益所面临的挑战。

What are the negative externalities that come from AI?

人工智能带来的外部负面因素有哪些？

I mean, so you think about the last industrialization

我的意思是，想想最近一次工业化，

and Americans in particular, my country,

特别是美国人，我的国家，

we are so great at the private market when it comes to profits.

我们在私人市场上非常擅长利益这方面。

We're capitalists when it comes to the markets,

在市场方面，我们是资本家，

because when we do well and money is to be made,

因为当我们表现良好且要赚钱时，

we make sure that we deploy that

我们会确保将其部署，

and the shareholders get it, and we're focused.

股东明白其间的道理，并集中精力于此。

But when there are losses, we are the world's best socialists.

但是，当有损失时， 我们是世界上最好的社会主义者。

It's not us.

这不是我们。

It's like, somebody else.

就像，其他人一样。

Everyone's got to pay for it.

每个人都必须为此付出代价。

We're not responsible.

我们不承担任何责任。

Preferably the kids.

最好是孩子们。

And maybe not now, but maybe later.

也许不是现在，但也许以后会承担。

And we've seen that with climate change.

我们在气候变化中已经看到了这一点。

Very happy to make all the money from industrialization.

我们高兴地从工业化中赚到所有的钱。

But I mean the costs of emitting more carbon?

但是代价是排放更多碳的成本？

Not it, not our problem.

不是这样，不是我们的问题。

Well, that's a long, global, slow process over generations.

好吧，这是一个漫长、全球化、 缓慢的过程，历经几代人。

AI is a very fast, transformative process over like, five to 10 years.

人工智能是一个非常快速、具有变革性的 过程，持续了大约五到十年。

And the negative externalities are going to happen essentially simultaneously

外部负面因素基本上将同时发生

with all of the positive productivity and efficiency gains.

并且提高了生产率和效率。

And we need a governance environment

而且我们需要一个对这些

where those are accounted for

问题进行核算

and paid for.

和支付的治理环境。

And in the near-term,

在短期内，

I am not talking about the robots taking over,

我说的不是机器人取代我们，

existential risk of artificial general intelligence.

是人工智能的生存风险。

I'm talking about AI being used by bad actors

我说的是不良行为者

or indifferent actors with challenging business models

或冷漠的行为者以具有挑战性的商业模式

in ways that will undermine stable society.

的方式使用人工智能 ， 这将破坏社会的稳定性。

I'm talking about, in particular, disinformation

我特别指的是虚假信息，

and how it can be deployed to undermine democracy.

以及如何利用虚假信息来破坏民主。

And I'm also talking

我也谈到了

about the disruptive nature of proliferated AI tools

激增的人工智能工具的破坏性，

in the hands of large numbers of governments

他们在大量的政府、

and institutions and individuals

各类机构和个人——

that are bad actors or tinkerers that want to destroy things

那些居心不善的行动者或修修补补者， 他们想要毁灭事物，

or thinking about it.

或是正在考虑毁灭事物。

I mean, whether they're using AI for malware

我的意思是，无论他们使用人工智能 来制造恶意软件，

or they're using AI to build viruses

还是使用人工智能来制造病毒

or lethal autonomous weapons.

或致命的自主武器。

And I think that that is really becoming a risk only for the first time

而且我认为，这在来年

in the coming year.

才首次真正成为一种风险。

In elections, like the US election,

在选举中，例如美国大选，

especially as the next generation of AI comes out

尤其是在下一代人工智能问世之际，

and this is moving three times faster than Moore's Law.

其发展速度比摩尔定律快三倍。

So every six months you're getting a doubling capacity, which is, you know,

因此，每六个月你的容量就会翻一番，

not an environment that traditional governments are able to respond to.

这是传统政府无法应对的环境。

It's too fast, it's too powerful.

它太快了，太强大了。

And you're also getting those tools

而且，你还可以在非常非常短的时间内

in the hands of hundreds of millions of people in very, very short order.

将这些工具交到数亿人手中。

So there is governance, it is coming fast, it is urgent.

因此，有治理，来得很快、很紧急。

But in 2024, the speed of the technology is much, much faster

但是在2024年，该技术的速度要

than the speed of the governance.

比治理速度快得多。

And that gap will create crises.

而这种差距将造成危机。

HW: I mean, we've seen,

HW：我的意思是，我们已经看到，

from the whole of the OpenAI kerfuffle that happened at the end of the year,

从年底发生的整场OpenAI混战中，

you really see these tensions kind of playing out in real time.

你真的看到这些紧张局势是实时发生的。

And there are people within large corporations

大公司的内部也有人

who are trying to do the right thing internally,

在努力做正确的事，

but then, of course, competition is actually driving them

但是，当然，竞争实际上是在推动他们

to move faster and faster so that they don't get left behind.

越来越快地行动， 这样他们就不会被落在后面。

Given the fact that, as you say,

正如你所说，

there are these bad actors outside of these organizations

这些组织之外还有不良行为者，

who are also trying to do their thing with the open-source technologies

他们也在努力利用正在发布的开源技术等

that are being released, etc.

做自己的事情。

What actual governance is possible in that environment?

在这种环境中，实际治理是可能的吗？

IB: There's a lot of governance

IB：在这种环境下

that is possible in that environment,

可以实施很多治理措施，

but it's not clear how quickly we can get there.

但目前尚不清楚 我们能以多快的速度实现这一目标。

So I mean, the EU has their AI Act,

所以，欧盟制定了人工智能法案，

which is quite comprehensive

该法案在

in the way it thinks about regulation and transparency of foundational models

基础模型的监管和透明度

and testing of those models of AI.

以及这些人工智能模型的 测试方面非常全面。

And in making sure it's not just being done internally.

还要确保这不仅仅是在内部完成。

And in watermarking and trying to make sure

在添加水印和努力确保

that people are aware of what kind of images they're seeing

人们知道他们看到的是什么样的图像

and audio, and what's being driven by AI

和音频，以及哪些是由人工智能驱动的，

and what is not.

哪些不是由人工智能驱动的。

And also the deployment of AI models

还有人工智能模型的部署

and what kind of data they have access to,

以及它们可以访问什么样的数据，

all of those things.

所有这些东西。

And the US has an executive order, which is not as powerful as legislation,

而且美国有一项行政命令， 它不如立法那么有力，

which is not coming anytime soon,

鉴于美国政府内部四分五裂的局面，

given the divided nature of the US government.

该命令不会很快出台。

But still, you know, represents a step change

但是，你知道，这仍然代表着

in how you think about regulating these technologies.

对监管这些技术的看法发生了重大变化

But these processes are happening much more slowly

但是这些过程的发生速度

than the tech is rolling out.

比该技术推出的速度慢得多。

So I think what governance will get you

因此，我认为治理能带来的是，

is it will identify the actors that are critical,

它将确定政府内部

both inside governments and in the private sector.

和私营部门中的关键行为者。

It will have them talking about the issues that really matter,

这将让他们讨论真正重要的问题，

and better set up so that when a crisis occurs, and it will,

并更好地进行设置，这样，当危机发生时，

that they will be able to identify and respond to it collectively

他们将能够集体识别和应对危机，

and much more quickly than they would absent that governance structure.

而且速度比没有治理结构要快得多。

So in this regard,

因此，在这方面，

AI is a little bit more like the financial sector,

人工智能更像金融部门，

where we all know that we need a functioning financial sector.

我们都知道我们需要 一个正常运转的金融部门。

And that's true whether we're capitalists like in the US

无论是像美国这样的资本家，

or we're state capitalists, like in China, you got a free, you know,

还是是国家资本家，就像在中国一样， 你知道的，

sort of, convertible currency or you've got a closed market.

都有一种自由的可兑换货币， 或者你的市场是封闭的。

Doesn't matter.

没关系。

We all know we need a financial market.

我们都知道我们需要一个金融市场。

But we also know that in a global financial market,

但我们也知道，在全球金融市场中，

that individual actors can cause systemic crises.

个别行为者可能造成系统性危机。

And so we need a stability board, that when there is a crisis,

因此，我们需要一个稳定委员会， 当发生危机时，

everyone identifies it and responds immediately

每个人都能识别出危机并立即做出反应，

so that we don't have a global meltdown,

这样我们就不会陷入全球崩溃，

don't face a depression.

也不会面临萧条。

That's what governance is going to need to be able to do on the AI front.

这就是治理在人工智能方面 需要能够做的事情。

And the thing is about AI, we're not just talking about,

问题在于人工智能，我们不只是在谈论，

oh, someone's making a run on the market

哦，有人在市场上大放异彩

and this company is going to go bankrupt.

而且这家公司要破产了。

The risks that potentially come from AI and misuse of AI

人工智能和滥用人工智能可能带来的风险

are in many, many different types of technologies and applications.

存在于许多不同类型的技术和应用中。

So you're going to have to,

因此，我们必须

you're going to have to essentially build the ship as you're steering it,

未雨绸缪，

because the dangers are going to change very quickly.

因为危险很快就会改变。

HW: No problem, we'll do that just fine.

HW：没问题，我们会好好做的。

So there is another part to the tech challenge of 2024

因此，2024年的科技挑战还有另一部分，

that is actually around the building of tech.

实际上与科技建设有关。

And that's about the minerals and the materials

这与实际用于建筑技术的

that actually go into building tech.

矿物和材料有关。

So your hunch within this report

因此，你在这份报告中的预感是，

is that governments are going to turn protectionist,

政府将转向保护主义，

they're going to disrupt the flow of minerals

他们将扰乱开发所有这些技术

that are needed to build all of this technology.

所需的矿产流动。

So what should we be paying attention to here,

那么，我们在这里应该注意什么，

and how much of a risk do you think that this is for the future?

你认为这会给未来带来多大的风险？

IB: Well, one is, it's related to the high-tech front,

IB：第一，这与高科技领域有关，

which is that the biggest fight between the US and China,

这是中美之间最大的竞争，

which thankfully has a more stable

可以庆幸的是，

and more managed relationship in 2024

与2023年相比，中美之间的关系

than they did coming into 2023.

在2024年更加稳定，更易于管理。

One of the big areas of tension is on the high-tech side.

紧张局势的主要领域之一是高科技方面。

And the Chinese are trying to develop AI,

中国人正在努力开发人工智能，

the Americans are trying to develop AI,

美国人同样正在努力开发人工智能，

but the US, with their allies,

但美国及其盟友现在

are now taking semiconductor capabilities

正在利用半导体能力，

and trying to ensure that they are being built in trusted countries,

并努力确保它们是在可信的国家建造的，

and they're putting export controls on semiconductors,

他们正在对半导体、

cloud computing, related infrastructure.

云计算和相关基础设施实施出口管制。

And so the Chinese don't have access to the most valuable stuff.

因此，中国人无法获得最有价值的东西。

Now, China doesn't build its own high-tech semiconductors.

现在，中国没有制造自己的 高科技半导体。

And they are, you know, by most accounts, about 10 years behind.

而且，你知道，从大多数方面来看， 它们已经落后了大约10年，

And they don't have a really good way to counter that,

而且，除了在自己的国家 内尽可能多地投资重建之外，

aside from investing as much as they can inside their own country to rebuild it.

他们没有一个 很好的方法来应对这个问题。

So some of what they're trying to do

因此，他们想要做的一些事情是

is see if there's a way to engage with the Americans

看看是否有办法与美国人接触，

that might loosen some of those export controls.

从而放松其中一些出口管制。

And that's one of the reasons, the principal reason, actually,

实际上这也是其中的一个主要原因，

why China expressed a willingness to join a new Track 1.5 dialogue

这就是中国表示愿意与美国人

with the Americans on artificial intelligence.

就人工智能问题进行新的1.5轨道对话的原因之一。

But, the Chinese response has been,

但是，中国的回应是，

well, you guys are dominant in semiconductors,

你们在半导体领域占据主导地位，

but we're dominant in critical minerals,

但我们在关键矿产、

in the exploitation and in the supply chain.

开采和供应链中占据主导地位。

And also in the development of a lot

还包括

of the new post-carbon energy generation and infrastructure:

许多新的后碳能源 发电和基础设施的开发：

solar cells, wind, batteries, that kind of thing,

太阳能电池、风能、电池、

electric automobiles.

电动汽车。

And so the Chinese are basically saying,

因此，中国人基本上是在说，

we're going to look at some of those critical minerals that we dominate,

我们将研究一些我们主导的关键矿产，

and we're going to put licensing regimes on those.

并对这些矿产实行许可制度。

And if you stick with the problems you give us on semis,

而且，如果你坚持在半导体方面 给我们带来的问题，

we're going to start putting export controls there.

我们将开始在那里实施 出口管制。

Now, the difference is the Americans will still be able

现在，不同之处在于美国人仍然

to buy all of that stuff.

能够购买所有这些东西。

It will just be more expensive.

它只是会更昂贵。

So the Chinese can't cut off the Americans

因此，中国人无法

the way the Americans and the South Koreans

像美国人、韩国人和荷兰人一样

and the Dutch can cut off the Chinese,

切断美国人的联系，

but they can make it really painful.

但他们可以让事情变得非常令人头疼。

And ultimately, all of this is about relative power.

归根结底，所有这一切 都与相对力量有关。

All of this is about relative gains.

所有这一切都与相对收益有关。

It's not about like, you know,

你知道，这不是要摧毁，

destroying, the Americans aren't going to destroy China and vice versa.

美国人不会摧毁中国，反之亦然。

But it does mean that as the world barrels towards an effort

但这确实意味着，随着世界努力

to transition from primarily fossil fuel-developed energy

从主要由化石燃料开发的能源

to primarily post-carbon-developed energy

到主要是后碳开发的能源，

over the period of one generation,

这是在一代人的时间内完成的。

that it will be far less efficient

由于中美之间的这场激烈斗争，

because of this big fight between the United States and China.

其效率将大大降低。

And at the same time,

与此同时，

we are seeing a number of governments around the world

我们看到世界各地的许多政府

put industrial policies in place to provide subsidies

制定了产业政策，

for their own workforces,

为自己的劳动力提供补贴，

governments that have access to a lot of these critical minerals

而能够获得大量这类关键矿产的政府

that are saying, we can use this to get up the supply chain.

表示，我们可以利用这些政策 来提升供应链。

So we want to make sure that you're investing that new technology

因此，我们要确保你在我们国家 投资这项新技术，

in our country and not just exploiting us for our resources,

而不仅仅是利用我们获取资源，

all of which is creating significant, politically induced costs

所有这些都造成了巨大的政治成本

in that big sector of the global environment

在全球的大环境之中，

at a time that you want those costs to be as low as possible

而你希望这些成本尽可能低，

so you can move away from fossil fuels, right?

这样就可以摆脱化石燃料，对吧？

I mean, the more expensive the critical minerals are,

我的意思是，关键矿产越昂贵，

the bigger the barriers,

逾越障碍的阻力越大，

the harder it's going to be to go from coal and oil and gas

从煤炭、石油和天然气转向

to all of this new sustainable stuff.

所有这些新的可持续物质就越难。

In 2024, that's becoming a significant fight.

2024年，这将成为一场激烈的战斗。

HW: Everything, everywhere, all at once.

HW：所有东西，无处不在，同时发生。

Everything is interconnected, is I think a theme of this conversation.

一切都是相互关联的，我认为 这是这次对话的主题。

I will flag for everybody that there are 10 risks

我将向所有人表明，

that you are flagging this year.

你今年列举了10种风险。

We have not had time to go through them all,

我们还没有时间仔细阅读所有内容，

so I would highly recommend that you go and read the full report.

因此我强烈 建议大家去阅读报告全文。

I'm going to, spoiler alert,

我将会，剧透提醒，

just flag something that you wrote right at the end of the report, Ian,

我要举出你在报告结尾处写 的一句话，伊恩，

that I think is really beautiful and worth holding close as we go into 2024:

我认为这篇文章写得真的很好，值得在 我们进入2024年之际保持密切关注：

"... that it is critical we don't just talk about these global issues

“... 至关重要的是，我们不仅要 谈论这些全球问题

to help make business and policy decisions,

来帮助做出商业和政策决策，

but also to connect to those closest to us.

还要与最亲近的伙伴建立联系。

If we can't make a difference with those we know and love, we are lost."

如果我们不能和我们认识和爱的人 一起有所作为，我们就会迷路。”

Ian, you are a poet, it turns out.

伊恩，事实证明你是个诗人。

IB: I don't know if I'd go that far,

IB：我不知道自己是否会走那么远，

but I'd like to believe I care about my fellow people.

但我想相信我关心我的同胞。

And this is a tough year.

今年是艰难的一年。

Look, I mean, I just came back from the South Pole, of all places.

听着，我的意思是，我刚 从南极回来，到处都是。

It's a place that I've always wanted to visit.

这是我一直想去的地方。

By virtue of my job, I travel all around the world.

凭借我的工作，我环游世界。

And this is this massive continent at the bottom of the planet

这是我从未去过的位于地球

that I've never been to.

底部的巨大大陆。

And it just looks like this big thing of ice.

而且它看起来像这个大冰块。

But this also felt like a year that being off the grid

但这也感觉像是脱离地图上的坐标方格

and connected to the planet,

与地球连接的一年，

but not like in the headlines, in the news, every moment.

但不像头条新闻、新闻中的每时每刻。

It was very useful just in terms of clearing my head a bit.

仅就清醒我的头脑而言，它非常有用。

But also, as a political scientist,

但是同样，作为一名政治学家，

being in a place that for 60-some years now we've managed to govern,

生活在我们设法治理了60来年的地方

if I can use that term loosely,

——如果我能粗略地使用这个词的话，

in a way that protects it for future generations

以一种方式保护我们的子孙后代，

and for the planet.

保护我们赖以生存的美丽星球。

And there used to be all of these competing territorial claims

过去，所有这些不同的国家

by all these different countries.

都有这些相互竞争的领土主张。

And now we actually have a treaty

现在我们实际上有了一项条约，

that says we're not going to have any resource exploitation.

规定我们不会进行任何资源开发。

We're not going to use this for military bases,

我们不会把它用于军事基地，

we're just going to use it for science,

我们只会把它用于科学，

and we're just going to keep it for the planet.

我们只会把它留给地球。

We're melting it, I know, because of global challenges.

我知道，由于全球挑战， 这一情况也在不断变化着，

But the reality is it still kind of is the way that we wanted it to be,

但现实情况是，它仍然是 我们想要的样子，

was the first arms control agreement that was ever signed

是1959年美国和苏联

between the Americans and the Soviets back in 1959,

签署的第一份军备控制协议，

and the treaty holds true until 2048.

该条约在2048年之前一直有效。

And when I talked about it, when I just came back,

当我谈到这个问题时， 当我刚回来的时候，

I had some people that were saying, oh, well, you know, 2048,

有人在说， 哦，好吧，你知道，2048年，

the Chinese are going to be like, looking on how they can exploit it,

中国人会像这样，看看如何利用它，

and the Russians, it's not going to last.

而俄罗斯人，它不会持续下去。

It's like, you know, if we've got something that works

就像，你知道， 在当今的环境中， 如果我们有一些行之有效

and is going to work until 2048 in today's environment,

且能持续到2048年的东西，

like, that's a win, right?

那是一个胜利，对吧？

I mean, we don't know where we're going to be in three months right now.

我的意思是，我们现在不知道 三个月后会走向何方。

And it turns out that we as human beings

事实证明，我们作为人类

are capable, sometimes, when we put our minds to it

有时是有这项能力的，当我们用心

of being stewards.

成为管理者的时候。

And we need to do more of that.

而且我们需要做更多的事情。

The thing that worries me the most about 2024

关于2024年，我最担心的是，

is we have a lot of very big,

我们现在正在进行许多非常激烈、

very real fights happening right now,

非常真实的战斗，

and no one's acting like a leader.

没有人像领导者那样行事。

No one's acting like a steward.

没有人像管家那样行事。

People are all focused on a very narrow view

人们都只关注他们

of what's at stake for them

和喜欢他们的人

and the people that like them.

所面临的利害关系。

And that's not humanity, right?

那不是人性，对吧？

It's very ephemeral.

这是非常短暂的。

And and when we all leave this planet,

当我们都离开这个星球时，

after this very short spell that we have here,

在经历了这么短暂的时间之后，

we all go back to the same place where all the same atoms.

我们都会回到同一个地方， 那里所有的原子都是一样的。

And we need to take a little bit of time to connect with the people around us,

我们需要花点时间与周围的人建立联系，

to remember that.

以记住这一点。

That's what I took away most from my little trip

这是我去地球底部的小旅程中

down to the bottom of the planet.

获得的最大收获。

And I'd like to try to hold that with me as we get through 2024.

在我们进入2024年时， 我想尽量坚持下去。

HW: May we all borrow that,

HW：愿我们都能领略这个，

may we all have that sensibility in mind

愿我们在今年的经历中

as we go through this year.

都保有这种敏感性。

Ian, thank you so much for your time.

伊恩，非常感谢你抽出时间。

IB: Thank you, Helen.

IB：谢谢你，海伦。