The Molecular Love Story That Could Help Power the World | Olivia Breese | TED

翻译人员: Yuqing Xie 校对人员: suya f.

The economic cost alone of the loss of nature and biodiversity

单是丧失自然与生物多样性 所造成的经济损失，

arising out of the unabated release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere

受到二氧化碳排放到 大气的持续影响，

is estimated at about 44 trillion dollars.

就预计达到44万亿美元。

We need to reimagine the way the world produces,

我们需要重新思考 全球能源生产、

消耗及定价方式，

consumes and prices energy,

and we need to do it now.

刻不容缓。

And so I'm here to tell you a love story.

我在这儿给大家讲一个爱情故事。

The lovers in this story might seem mismatched,

故事里的主人公看似不般配，

but their love has the power to change the world

但他们的爱足以改变世界，

by reimagining the global energy system.

重新塑造全球能源系统。

It's a story we all need to understand.

我们都需要了解这个故事。

A story with a complicated meet cute,

这不但是一个复杂有趣的故事，

but ultimately a simple resolution.

还是一个简单的解决方案。

It's the story of an electron and a water molecule.

这是关于电子和水分子的故事。

Now in order to truly empathize with my electron's narrative arc,

为了重点强调电子的故事线，

you need to know a bit about her,

你需要事先了解一下她，

her history, her personality.

了解她的历史与个性。

Electrons have powered the modern world since the 19th century,

自19世纪以来， 电子就为现代社会赋能，

when scientists discovered that using magnets and coils of wire,

当时科学家发现，利用磁铁和线圈，

they could turn a flow of motion into electrons carrying energy.

两者间的运动可以 产生携带能量的电子。

That was just the beginning of our increasingly electrified existence.

对于我们日益增长的电气化， 这仅仅是个开端。

Behind almost everything we do,

几乎每一件事情背后，

there are supply chains, refrigeration systems,

都有供应链、制冷系统， 以及数据中心等系统支持。

data centers and much, much more.

And so it's perhaps not surprising

因此，不出意料，

that the global production of electricity alone

光是全球发电带来的二氧化碳排放量，

constitutes about 28 percent of total emissions of carbon dioxide,

就占二氧化碳总排放的28%,

because for much of that time,

因为多数时候，

electricity has been produced by burning fossil fuels,

电力靠燃烧化石燃料生成，

which emit carbon dioxide as a byproduct.

在这个过程中，二氧化碳产生。

But not our heroine.

但我们的女主角截然不同，

She's a green electron.

因为她是绿色电子。

Her energy comes from the sun, the wind, the tide.

她的能量来自太阳、风和潮汐。

An unlimited renewable resource

这些源源不断的再生能源，

which produces electricity without emitting any carbon dioxide.

使发电时不再生成二氧化碳。

And there is good news here.

好消息是，

The share of green electrons in the global electricity system

全球电力系统中的绿色电子约占30%，

is approximately 30 percent,

and it's rising rapidly.

该比例一直快速增长。

So in that case,

因此，这种情况下，

addressing climate change should be easy.

应对气候变化不再是难事。

We just need to electrify everything

我们只需要使一切电气化，

and make sure that we have enough green electrons like her to power it.

确保我们拥有足够多的绿色电子来发电。

No.

但事实并非如此。

I identify very strongly with the green electron,

我个人非常认同绿色电子，

perhaps because I've spent virtually all my professional life

这大概是因为我的整个职业生涯，

working to deliver her at the greatest possible volume

几乎都在研究绿色电子， 尽可能使其以最低的价格达到量产。

and the lowest possible cost.

But our green electron can't save the world on her own.

但我们的绿色电子 无法光靠自己一人来拯救世界。

And that's why this is a love story and not a coming-of-age narrative.

所以我要讲的 是一个爱情故事，

不是鸡汤文学。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

Electrons can't save the world alone. Yep.

电子本身对拯救世界无能为力。

The world also needs molecules.

这个世界还需要分子。

Now I think of molecules, if not as exactly opposite to electrons,

我想，作为分子， 既然无意与电子针锋相对，

certainly as complementary.

那两者必然是互帮互助的关系。

If I were to ascribe a personality to a molecule,

如果要我归纳分子的个性，

it would be consistent,

那便是一致性、可靠性和独立性。

reliable, self-contained.

Unlike electrons,

与电子不同，

molecules are excellent at storing and releasing energy efficiently.

分子擅长高效存储与释放能量。

They're critical for industrial processes

他们对工业加工至关重要，

which need the intense heat which comes from burning of fuel.

这些加工过程需要 焚烧燃料来达到高温环境。

They're essential for long-distance shipping and aviation,

他们还对远距离海运与航空至关重要，

which need to store, transport and release energy efficiently.

以高效地存储、运输以及释放能量。

But these sectors, which are critical to the global economy,

这些行业与全球经济息息相关，

they can't be electrified efficiently.

但却难以达到高效电气化。

And these hard-to-electrify sectors,

恰恰是这些难以电气化的行业，

they currently equate to about 30 percent of total annual carbon dioxide emissions

每年的二氧化碳排放量 占到总排放的30%，

because virtually all their molecules come from fossil fuels.

因为几乎所有的分子都来自化石燃料。

And until recently there wasn't a viable alternative

直到最近，也没有任何可行的替代方案，

to obtaining those molecules from fossil fuels.

可以取代化石燃料生成分子。

And so no credible route to net zero,

由此可见，我们既没有 实现净零排放的可靠途径，

no possibility of reimagining the global energy system,

也没有重新塑造全球能源系统的可能性，

no world that runs entirely on green energy.

这个世界无法纯粹依靠绿色能源运转。

But …

还好……

here enters our second lover.

我们的第二位主人公出现了。

Our molecule of H2O.

那便是我们的水分子，

Water.

水。

Not a traditional pairing with electricity,

水和电不曾是官配，

but as Emily Dickinson reminds us,

但正如艾米莉·狄金森所言，

the heart wants what it wants.

心之所向，身之所往。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And so our love story goes like this.

于是我们的爱情故事就此展开。

The green electron and the water molecule meet.

绿色电子与水分子相遇，

They feel a spark. They fall in love.

在电光火石间相爱，

And from that love is born a green molecule.

并产下了爱情结晶绿色分子。

A molecule which can store and release energy

这是一种能够存储和释放能量的分子，

without any fossil fuels getting involved.

与任何化石燃料都不沾边。

Or, if you prefer the scientific version:

如果你想听听科学版本：

using electrolysis,

使用电解质，

the power of green electrons can be used to split water into its constituent parts,

绿色电子的能量 可以将水分解成其组成元素，

oxygen and hydrogen,

即氧元素和氢元素，

leaving us with hydrogen, H2.

为我们提供氢气 （H2）。

Hydrogen is an extremely flexible fuel.

氢气是极端易燃物质，

It can be burnt to provide energy

燃烧时可为钢铁制造等 热量密集型工艺供能。

for heat-intensive processes like steel production.

It can be synthesized with biogenic carbon,

它能与生物成因碳、非化石碳一起，

nonfossil-based carbon,

to produce methanol,

合成甲醇，

and that methanol can be used to decarbonize the chemical industry

使用这种甲醇能够 帮助化学工业达到碳减排，

or as a fuel for long-distance shipping.

或者为长距离海运提供燃料。

That methanol can be further synthesized into e-kerosene, jet fuel,

甲醇还能进一步生成煤油、航空燃料，

which raises the possibility of emissions-free long-distance aviation.

越来越可能实现零排放的远距离航运。

Or finally, hydrogen can be synthesized with nitrogen to produce ammonia.

或者，氢气可以与氮气合成，生成氨气。

So now surely I'm going to tell you that they all lived happily ever after,

那么，到这里我该说， 他们从此幸福地生活在一起，

like all the great love stories,

无异于其他伟大的爱情故事，

in a world that runs entirely on green energy.

在绿色能源世界里幸福地生活。

But no.

但并非如此。

Because at the current rate of progress,

因为按照现在的发展速度，

of deploying, scaling up these technologies,

以及使技术得到广泛使用的速度，

we are absolutely not on track to achieve a one-and-a-half-degree pathway.

工业化前水平1.5度的目标 实现进程还未步入正轨。

But we are still writing this story.

但我们仍在书写这个故事。

We know that industry can scale up these breakthrough technologies

我们知道，工业界可以 非常迅速地推广这些突破性技术，

very rapidly

because at Ørsted, we’ve done this before.

因为在沃旭能源， 我们曾经做到了这一点。

In 1991, we installed the world's first offshore wind turbine,

1991年，我们安装了 世界上第一架离岸风力发电机，

so close to shore you could swim around it.

距离岸边很近，你甚至可以游过去。

Back then, offshore wind was expensive.

当时离岸风力发电成本昂贵，

It was widely considered to be uneconomically viable.

人们广泛认为没有经济可行性。

It was based on immature technology.

因为技术尚未成熟，

There was a lot of doubt about its long-term viability.

人们对其长期可行性深表怀疑。

But we committed to bring down costs.

但我们决心压缩成本，

We optimized every component.

一边优化每个零件，

We worked with the supply chain

一边完善供应链，

so that they could invest in their manufacturing capacity.

让供应商能够投入提高自身产能。

And as the European policymakers saw that we and the industry,

欧洲决策者看到我们和工业界的努力，

the progress that we were making on cost and on efficiency,

看到我们在成本和效率上带来的进步，

they reimagined the European electricity system

他们重新审视欧洲电气系统，

to put offshore wind as a critical pillar of it.

视离岸风电为中流砥柱。

And the US and Asian markets --

同时，美国和亚洲市场——

like Japan, Korea, Taiwan and of course China -- have followed.

包括日本、韩国、台湾 以及中国内地——紧随其后。

And now we need to take the green molecule on the same journey,

如今，我们需要让绿色分子 踏上相同的旅程，

but much faster.

且越快越好。

In May, we broke ground on Europe’s largest e-methanol plant,

五月，我们在欧洲 最大的甲醇工厂破土动工，

in northern Sweden.

在瑞典北部落脚。

In 2025, when it's operational,

到2025年，工厂运营时，

it will produce enough green methanol

将会有足够的绿色甲醇

to power one oceangoing container vessel.

为一个远洋货轮提供能源。

We’re already planning the next, five to eight times the size.

我们已经在为下一步做计划， 把规模扩大至原来的五到八倍。

In the US, on the Gulf Coast and all over the world,

不管在美国的墨西哥湾岸区 还是世界上其他地区，

developers like us are working with companies

像我们一样的研发者正和公司正致力于

who want to defossilize their operations to build green hydrogen projects.

去化石运营，开展绿色氢气项目。

But the global energy system cannot be defossilized by individuals,

但全球能源系统无法靠个体达到去化石，

even those in love.

用爱发电也不行，

Not by individual projects, no matter their scale,

无论规模大小，个体项目做不到

not by individual companies.

个体公司也做不到。

Even whole countries acting alone

哪怕整个国家团结一致， 也无法单独改变全球能源系统，

cannot transform the global energy system

away from one which is dependent on fossil fuels.

改变它依赖化石燃料的现状。

Until now, the price of fossil fuels

目前，化石燃料价格

has not reflected the true cost

并没反映二氧化碳排放 持续增长的实际成本。

of the unabated release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

It does not reflect the costs of adaptation and mitigation

也没反映适应和减缓气候 变化所带来的成本。

to a changing climate.

And so those costs, they fall on all of us.

以上这些成本，最终都由我们买单。

Inevitably, they fall on us inequitably.

不可避免的是，做不到平摊。

And that must change.

而这点必须得到改变。

Too often, the costs of defossilization,

去化石的成本通常很高，

whether of companies, cities, countries,

无论对公司、城市，还是国家而言， 这笔费用足以让他们望而却步。

is dismissed as too expensive.

And yet, if the price of fossil fuels reflected their true cost,

然而，如果化石燃料价格 反映的是真实成本，

the economic imperative would be to seek out the defossilized version.

出于经济考虑， 他们必然寻求去化石途径。

The economic imperative would be

经济需求必将

to scale up these solutions we already have at hand.

扩大实施我们现行方案的范围。

A world which runs entirely on green energy,

一个完全依靠绿色能源运行的世界，

it's not a luxury,

不是奢侈品，

it's a necessity.

而是必需品。

(Applause)

（掌声）

And so to come back, finally, to my love story.

最后，再回到我所说的爱情故事上。

In the UK, where I'm from,

在我的老家英国，

there's a moment in the wedding ceremony

婚礼上总有一个时刻

which recognizes the importance of communal action.

体现了共同行动的重要性。

It’s my favorite moment every time,

那是我最喜欢的时刻，

because it reflects the fact that marriage is an intensely private act.

因为它反映出 虽然婚姻是极度私密的行为，

But families, families of all kinds,

但家庭，各种各样的家庭，

it's a societal endeavor, it's a product,

是共同努力下的社会产物，

it's a component of society,

是社会的组成部分，

just like my love story.

我说的爱情故事亦然。

And so in this, the story of the electron and the water molecule

在这个故事里，电子与水分子

who meet, fall in love, who produce the green electron,

相遇、相爱，并生成绿色电子，

who has the power to reimagine the world's energy system.

这种绿色电子能够重塑世界能源系统。

I believe that they and therefore we

我相信因为他们，

can live happily ever after,

我们从此也能幸福地生活在一起，

but only, as in the marriage ceremony,

但前提是，像婚礼一样，

only with the support of their family and friends.

我们需要得到来自家庭和亲友的支持。

In the UK, the traditional response to the question,

在英国，当被问到

"Will you support and uphold the newlyweds now and in the years to come,"

“您是否愿意从此刻到未来 支持与拥护这对新婚夫妇，”

is, "We will."

惯例答案是“我们愿意”。

And for our lovers?

那对于这个故事里的主角呢？

Will we?

我们愿意吗？

Their family and friends?

作为他们的家庭与亲友，

Government? Industry?

作为政府，行业，

Society? Consumers? Voters?

社会，顾客，选民，

Will we support and uphold them?

我们愿意支持与拥护他们吗？

We need to.

我们得支持他们。

We must. We will.

必须且将会做到。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）