TED Explores: A New Climate Vision | TED Countdown

翻译人员: Chen Xuan 校对人员: Reem Bsheer

Christiana Figueres: There's no doubt

克里斯蒂娜·菲格雷斯 （Christiana Figueres）：毫无疑问，

that we are facing exponential impacts of climate change.

我们正面临着 气候变化的指数级影响。

There is also, however, no doubt

然而，同样毫无疑问的是，

that that is being met with exponential progress

可以应对气候变化的技术

of the technologies that can help to address climate change.

正在取得指数级的进步。

So what we have here is, frankly, a race between two exponential curves.

因此，坦率地说，我们这里看到 两条指数曲线之间的竞赛。

By 2030,

到 2030 年，

we collectively will have chosen between door number one.

我们将 共同选择一号门。

And door number two.

还是二号门。

Julio Friedmann: The question I am most commonly asked

Julio Friedmann：我最常被问到

about climate change is:

关于气候变化的问题是：

"Should I be optimistic or pessimistic?"

“我应该乐观还是悲观？”

Cynthia Williams: Here's what we need to do to make sure

Cynthia Williams：下面是 我们需要做的事情，

that we're ready for an all-electric future.

来确保我们为电气化未来做好准备。

Anika Goss: Being financially secure and climate resilient

Anika Goss：保持财务安全 和气候适应能力

should be the most important priority.

应该是最重要的优先事项。

Faustine Delasalle: It's really easy when you look at where we are today

Faustine Delasalle： 当你对比我们今天的状况

and where we ought to be by 2030,

和2030年我们应该达到的水平时，

to feel like there's a huge gap that will never be filled.

很容易就会感受到存在 一个永远无法填补的巨大差距。

But we have good reasons to say that that gap is actually fixable.

但是我们有充分的理由说 这种差距实际上是可以修复的。

Nigel Topping: If you're not worried or anxious,

Nigel Topping：如果你 不担心或焦虑，

you're probably not paying attention.

你可能从未关注过。

But we should also not be defeatist.

但我们也不应该是失败主义者。

We shouldn’t say, “We’ve done nothing,

我们不应该说：“我们什么也没做，

we're failing."

我们失败了”

We've really started 20 years too late,

我们确实起步晚了20年，

but it takes a long time to get the flywheel of momentum going.

但要让飞轮保持势头 需要很长时间。

Kingsmill Bond: The tide of change is coming.

Kingsmill Bond：变革的浪潮 即将来临。

The costs keep falling.

成本持续下降。

The political pressure keeps increasing.

政治压力不断增加。

JF: We're going to build a thriving, exciting world.

JF：我们将建立 一个繁荣、令人兴奋的世界。

AG: We can do this.

AG：我们可以做到。

JF: Full of potential.

JF：充满潜力。

AG: We have to do this.

AG：我们必须这样做。

[TED Explores A New Climate Vision]

[TED 探索全新的气候愿景]

Manoush Zamorodi: When it comes to climate change,

Manoush Zamorodi： 提起气候变化，

are you an optimist or a pessimist?

你是乐观主义者还是悲观主义者？

News about the climate can be overwhelming and emotional,

有关气候的新闻 可能让人不知所措和激动人心，

to the point that many of us just feel numb.

以至于我们中的许多人 都感到麻木。

I’m Manoush Zomorodi, a longtime public media journalist

我是Manoush Zamorodi，长期担任 公共媒体记者，

and host of the TED Radio Hour.

也是TED Radio Hour的主持人。

And today, we want to bring you something special:

今天，我们想 给大家带来一些特别的东西：

an hour of nuance, of real people

一个小时的细微差别，真实的人物，

and clarity about what is happening to our planet

并清楚地了解我们的地球 正在发生的事情

and what we're doing about it.

以及我们正在做些什么。

Because we all know there's plenty of bad news when it comes to the climate crisis.

因为我们都知道，在气候危机方面 有很多坏消息。

But guess what?

但是你猜怎么着？

There's also some really good news.

还有一些非常好的消息。

That's why we're here in Detroit at the TED Countdown Summit,

这就是我们来到底特律参加 TED倒计时峰会的原因，

where a cross-section of people who know the most

在那里，有这样一群

and who are doing the most

最了解、最付出的人聚集在一起，

have gathered to share their ideas and plans with each other

彼此分享他们的想法和计划，

and with you.

并与你分享。

You're going to hear from some incredible speakers

你将听到一些令人难以置信的演讲者

about their personal stories and tested solutions.

讲述他们的个人故事 和经过测试的解决方案。

But first, let's get a quick reminder on the basics:

但首先，让我们快速了解一下基本知识：

climate change in a minute or so.

一分钟了解气候变化。

[Prologue: What is Climate Change?]

[序言：什么是气候变化？]

David Biello: The air we breathe has changed.

David Biello：我们 呼吸的空气发生了变化。

The mix of gases is shifting,

气体的组分正在发生变化，

with more and more greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide.

二氧化碳等温室气体越来越多。

And the shift is happening faster each year.

而且这种转变每年都在 更快地发生。

In just a few hundred years,

在短短几百年内，长久以来形成的

fossil fuels formed over eons have been burned as coal, oil and gas.

化石燃料以煤炭、石油和天然气的形式燃烧。

The exhaust has transformed the entire atmosphere and ocean.

废气改变了整个大气层和海洋。

It's like a pollution blanket.

就像一条污染毛毯一样。

And the result we know as climate change.

并导致我们所熟知的气候变化。

The planet has already warmed more than one degree Celsius

地球已经升温超过一摄氏度，

and is on a path to heat up even more.

并且正在进一步升温。

That may not seem like a lot,

这可能看起来不多，

but it's already caused major destruction across the globe.

但它已经在全球造成了重大破坏。

To give us some room to breathe,

为了给我们一些喘息的空间，

the world must reduce greenhouse gas pollution

全世界必须在这十年中

by more than seven percent each year,

每年将温室气体污染减少7％以上。

every year of this decade.

有许多方法可以做到这一点。

There are a number of ways to do that.

Let's start by looking at the greenhouse gases themselves.

让我们先来 看看温室气体本身。

CO2 makes up nearly 75 percent of the pollution emitted each year.

二氧化碳占每年排放 污染物总量的75％。

And then there's methane or natural gas, which makes up 17 percent.

然后是甲烷或天然气约占17％。

Finally, there's nitrous oxide, making up six percent of the problem.

最后，一氧化二氮 占总量的6%。

There are other greenhouse gases,

还有其他温室气体，

but these three make up the bulk of the climate challenge.

但这三种气体构成 了气候挑战的大部分。

Where do they come from?

它们来自哪里？

There are several ways to break down the sources of greenhouse gas emissions.

有几种方法可以 分析温室气体排放源。

Here we’re using the public Climate Watch data.

我们这里使用的是公开的 气候观察数据。

Start with energy.

首先能源类（排放源）

The majority of modern energy comes from burning fossil fuels,

大多数现代能源 来自化石燃料的燃烧，

which makes the energy sector 76 percent of the climate challenge,

这使得能源行业承担了76%的气候挑战，

including the fuels used for transportation,

包括用于运输、

industrial processes and agricultural production.

工业过程 和农业生产的燃料。

Farming and animal raising also have to change,

农业和动物养殖业 也必须改变，

as agriculture accounts for 12 percent of greenhouse gas pollution.

因为农业占温室气体排放的12％。

The remaining 12 percent

剩余的12％

comes from a grab bag of human activities like industrial heating,

来自于一大批人类活动， 例如工业取暖、

clearing forests and more.

森林砍伐等等。

This is the climate challenge we face:

这就是我们面临的气候挑战：

going from adding billions of metric tons of greenhouse gases

从每年向大气排放 数十亿公吨的温室气体

to the air each year to adding zero.

到零排放。

Will it be easy?

这容易做到吗？

No.

不容易。

Can we do it?

我们能做到吗？

Yes, if we choose to.

是的，如果我们选择（去做）的话。

MZ: OK, so that's the situation.

MZ：好吧，情况就是这样。

Where do we go from here?

我们从这里去哪里？

Well, we've all heard of a tipping point,

我们都听说过一个转折点，

that moment when an idea or concept finally takes hold

一个想法或概念终于扎根

and then changes the world.

并改变世界的那一刻。

Well, the UN's climate chief, Simon Stiell,

联合国气候事务负责人Simon Stiell认为

believes we are almost at a tipping point for massive action on climate change.

我们正处在采取大规模行动 应对气候变化的临界点。

And to get you ready, he wants to take you back to the early '90s,

为了让你做好准备，他想 带你回到90年代初，

when he was an executive at Nokia,

当时他在诺基亚担任高管，

and the world wasn't sending text messages yet.

当时世界还没有发送短信。

[Chapter 1: Exponential Change]

[第 1 章：指数变化]

Simon Stiell: I want you to imagine it’s 1992,

Simon Stiell：我想让你想象 现在是1992 年，

and you're talking to a telecoms expert.

你正在和一位电信专家说话。

She tells you that mobile phone text messaging

她告诉你，手机短信

is going to fundamentally change the way we communicate.

将从根本上改变 我们的沟通方式。

You think, why on Earth am I going to go from this

你想，我到底为什么要从这样

to tapping on a screen with my fingers and my thumbs?

变成用手指和大拇指点击屏幕？

But then, after a slow start,

但是随后，在缓慢起步之后，

text-based services exploded.

基于文本的服务爆炸式增长。

Today, over 23 billion messages are sent every single day.

如今，每天发送的 消息超过230亿条。

This paved the way for the smartphone revolution.

这为智能手机革命铺平了道路。

I know how much we struggle to comprehend

我知道我们很难理解

and predict what exponential change means,

和预测指数变化意味着什么，

because I was at Nokia in 1993

因为1993年那场技术革命开始时，

when that technological revolution started.

我正好在诺基亚工作。

And now, as head of UN climate change,

现在，作为联合国气候变化负责人，

I'm here to tell you that what was true for mobile phones

我在这里告诉大家，手机 的（指数变化）是真实的，

is also true for climate action today.

当今的气候行动也是如此。

We're here in Detroit, the heart of car manufacturing.

我们在底特律， 这里是汽车制造业的中心。

Take a look at this graph.

请看这张图。

Electric vehicle sales

预计到2030年，电动汽车

are expected to increase to become 70 percent by 2030.

销量将增长到70％。

Another example, solar energy.

另一个例子，太阳能。

Between 2010 and 2020,

在 2010 年至 2020 年之间，

we moved from 20 gigawatts of solar energy installed

我们的太阳能安装量 从 20千兆瓦增加

to 150 gigawatts.

到 150 千兆瓦。

And by 2030, that number is expected to increase again,

到2030年，这一数字 预计将再次增加，

to 1,000 gigawatts per year.

达到每年1,000千兆瓦。

Change can come fast.

变化可以来得很快。

FD: So exponential change means that change happens very slowly at first

FD：因此，指数变化意味着 变化起初发生得非常缓慢，

and then comes a tipping point.

然后到了临界点。

And suddenly things accelerate and accelerate and accelerate.

突然间，情况不断加速。

NT: It's a mathematical term,

NT：这是一个数学术语，

but it means basically stuff happens very slowly

但这意味着基本上 事情发生得非常缓慢，

and then it goes really fast.

然后进展非常快速。

Tessa Kahn: Governments and experts have consistently underestimated the pace

Tessa Kahn：政府和专家一直低估

and scale at which we can deploy renewable energy

我们部署可再生能源的速度和规模，

and how quickly renewable energy

以及可再生能源和相关技术 变得负担得起的速度。

and associated technologies become affordable.

Ramez Naam: I predicted in 2011

Ramez Naam：我在2011年预测，

that we'd have solar as cheap as coal in some parts of the world by 2015

到2015年世界某些地区的 太阳能将像煤炭一样便宜，

and half the cost of coal by 2020,

到2020年，煤炭成本将降低一半，

and everyone thought I was crazy,

几乎所有人都以为我疯了，

I've got to say, almost.

我不得不说，差不多。

And in fact, I was wrong.

事实上，我错了。

The actual decline in the cost of solar

太阳能成本的实际下降速度

happened twice as fast as I thought it would.

是我想象的两倍。

Solar prices today are a century ahead

今天的太阳能价格比

of where the world's leading energy experts thought they'd be in 2010.

世界领先的能源专家在2010年 预计的价格高出一个世纪。

KB: It's now spreading from solar, so it's happening also in the wind sector,

KB：这个趋势正在从太阳能领域传播， 发生在风能领域，

it's happening in the battery sector,

发生在电池领域，

it's happening in the electric vehicle sector.

也发生在电动汽车领域。

CF: I don't think that we do a good job at communicating the fact

CF：我不认为我们 善于传达这样一个事实

that we are progressing more than is commonly known.

即我们取得的进步 比众所周知的要多。

Nili Gilbert: The human brain is trained best

Nili Gilbert：人类大脑最擅长

at thinking about linear change.

思考线性变化。

But when you think about an exponential curve,

但是，当你想到 一条指数曲线，

next to a line,

在线性变化直线的旁边，

at first the exponential curve is below the line,

起初指数曲线 在直线以下，

and so it's moving more slowly than you would think.

因此它的变化速度 比你想象的要慢。

And then it crosses the line

然后它越过直线，

and it's moving faster than you would think.

并且移动的速度 远超你的想象。

Habiba Daggash: We call it cautious optimism.

Habiba Daggash：我们称之为谨慎乐观。

We're very hopeful

我们对所看到的轨迹充满希望。

about the trajectories that we've seen.

But we shouldn't let up yet.

但是我们还不应该放松。

KB: So we can make this change happen slow or we can make it happen fast.

KB：因此，我们可以让这种变化缓慢 发生，也可以让它快速发生。

The key point to say is we have agency.

关键是我们有推动力。

MZ: This idea of exponential growth sounds awesome.

MZ：这种指数增长 的想法听起来很棒。

It sounds amazing, but is it actually happening?

听起来很神奇， 但它真的发生了吗？

Well, I'm headed into a workshop with industry and climate leaders

我将与行业和气候领袖 一起参加一个研讨会，

to find out.

以找出答案。

The moderators of the workshop challenged us to hold two competing ideas

研讨会的主持人 要求我们脑海中同时

in our minds at the same time.

浮现两个相互竞争的想法。

NT: What we're really going to explore today

NT：我们今天真正要探讨的是

is two apparently opposing realities,

两个明显对立的现实，

and they're often two opposing narratives.

它们通常是两种对立的叙述。

The one which is true, right, is that in terms of the Paris goals,

一种现实是 就巴黎的目标而言，

we're way off track.

我们已经偏离了正轨。

We're deep into the emergency.

我们深陷各种紧急情况。

But what we're going to explore today is the other reality

但是我们今天要探索的是另一个现实，

that we know what to do.

我们知道该怎么做的现实。

Exponential change is happening, but it doesn't happen by magic.

指数变化正在发生， 但不是靠魔法发生的。

MZ: So what are we seeing in different industries?

MZ：那么我们在不同的行业 看到了什么？

Well, let's start with one that's known to be really difficult

好吧，让我们从 一种众所周知很难

to decarbonize: cement.

脱碳的水泥行业开始。

Vicente Saiso Alva: I think everything converges into making climate

Vicente Saiso Alva：我认为 一切都汇聚在一起，

a huge urgent matter for society.

使气候成为社会面临的 一个巨大紧迫问题。

We started to feel the pressure from all different types of stakeholders,

我们开始感受到来自 不同类型利益相关者的压力，

and in one year of running this program,

在实施该计划的一年中，

we realized how fast we could move

我们意识到我们可以 以多快的速度前进，

and how fast we were going in reducing CO2 emissions,

减少二氧化碳排放量的速度有多快，

which means now to go from 40 to close to 50 percent reduction by 2030.

这意味着到2030年，减少40％ 至近50％的二氧化碳排放量。

MZ: Encouraging, but to tackle that remaining 50 percent

MZ：这令人鼓舞，但要解决余下的50％，

may require technologies that don't exist at scale yet.

可能需要尚未大规模存在的技术。

OK, what about shipping?

好吧，海运行业如何？

Narin Phol: In Maersk, a few years back,

Narin Phol：几年前，在马士基，

we came out with a net-zero ambition by 2050,

我们提出了到2050年 实现零排放的目标，

and in a few years later, based on the data that we have got,

几年后， 根据我们获得的数据，

we've really seen a path that we can really accelerate that one.

我们确实看到了一条可以真正加速 实现这一目标的道路。

That's why the revised target of 2040 came in.

这就是修订后的 2040年目标出台的原因。

MZ: The news in offshore wind was quite dramatic.

MZ：海上风电领域的新闻 相当引人注目。

Jennie Dodson: So my moment of mindset shift was in 2019.

Jennie Dodson：我的思维方式转变 是在2019年。

The government put out a request to bid for offshore wind permits.

政府提出了竞标海上风电许可证的申请。

And that year the price that came in was two thirds less

而那一年的价格骤降，

than just four years before.

比四年前低了三分之二。

And really critically,

实际上，至关重要的是，

it was the same price as the mainstream market.

它的价格与主流市场相同。

And that was transformative.

那是变革性的。

Nobody expected that when they started.

刚开始时没人预料到会这样。

MZ: The conversation got pretty technical and a bit wonky.

MZ：谈话变得技术性很强，有点怪异。

NP: So to drive exponential growth,

NP：因此，为了推动指数增长，

you focus on a reinforcing loop to make sure it works

你需要专注于强化循环 以确保其发挥作用，

and you slow down on the balancing loop.

然后在平衡循环中放慢速度。

MZ: But the takeaway is that certain sectors,

MZ：结论是某些行业，

like EVs and renewables, are being upended,

例如电动汽车和可再生能源， 正在被颠覆，

while others, like cement and heavy industry

而水泥和重工业等 其他行业则更落后。

are further behind.

But generally across every industry --

总的来说，在每个行业都-- （推进可持续发展）

JD: It’s amazing stuff.

JD：这真是太神奇了。

MZ: There's an understanding that they all need to work together.

MZ：有一种共识是各行各业 都需要一起努力。

And the message?

还有那个主题？

Big change can happen.

巨变将会发生。

It's going to be hard, but some of us are already doing it,

这会很难，但是我们 当中有些人已经在这样做了，

so learn from us.

所以向我们学习。

[Chapter 2: The Electric Vehicle Revolution]

[第2章：电动汽车革命]

OK, we are in an exponential mindset.

好吧，我们的心态呈指数级增长。

And as you heard,

正如你所听到的，

one example of exponential growth

指数增长的一个例子

might be sitting in your driveway right now.

可能是你现在的车道上。

Electric vehicles are finally really happening,

电动汽车终于 真正出现了，

which means that people here in Detroit are rethinking the auto industry.

这意味着底特律的人们 正在重新思考汽车行业。

They're rethinking their jobs, their identity.

他们正在重新考虑 自己的工作和身份。

Take Cynthia Williams, head of sustainability at Ford.

以福特可持续发展主管 Cynthia Williams为例。

I sat down with her at Lucky Detroit, a local coffee and barber shop,

我和她在当地一家叫Lucky Detroit的 咖啡和理发店坐了下来，

where she told me that there are three things that need to happen

在那里她告诉我，还需要三件事，

for electric vehicles to go to the next level,

才可以促使电动汽车更上一层楼，

from this tipping point to exponential growth.

实现从这个临界点到指数级增长。

CW: The three things for me are change,

CW：对我来说，三件事是变革、

collaboration and capacity.

协作和产能。

So the change piece of it is changing the way folks think about the vehicle,

因此，变革的部分是改变 人们对车辆的看法，

making sure that they understand we're bringing a better vehicle

确保他们明白我们正在 为客户提供更好的车辆。

to the customers.

MZ: So you don't have to make a sacrifice.

MZ：所以你不必做出牺牲。

CW: I think one of the things we need to do is actually

CW：我认为我们需要做的一件事

get people in the cars

就是让人们坐上车，

and show them how fun it is.

向他们展示多么有趣。

And it's no different, it's just powered by a battery.

并且没有什么区别， 它只是由电池供电。

We are at a tipping point.

我们正处于临界点。

We're at a point of acceleration of electric vehicles.

我们正处于电动汽车 加速发展的时刻。

Many are calling it the electric vehicle revolution.

许多人称之 为电动汽车革命。

Now with that comes unprecedented change

现在，随之而来的是前所未有的变化，

that will require us to build new capacity

这将要求我们建立新的产能，

and collaborate in ways that we've never seen before.

并以前所未有的方式进行协作。

To make things happen faster, you have to think differently.

为了让事情更快地发生， 你必须换个角度思考。

You can't just collaborate with the same people

你不能因为得到相同的答案而

because you get the same answer, right?

与同一个人合作，对吧？

You need to broaden your collaboration space.

你需要拓宽协作空间。

Go outside of your industry,

例如，走出你的行业，

understand what worked in Norway, for example,

了解在挪威行之有效的方法，

to get them to where they are.

让他们一步步实现。

MZ: Where's the weak link, Cynthia?

MZ：薄弱环节在哪里，Cynthia?

What's the thing that you're like, that if we don't push through that,

你是怎么认为的， 如果我们不推动这一点，

we may not get to this full adoption?

我们可能无法实现全面采用？

CW: The critical things that we hear from the consumers

CW：我们从消费者那里听到的关键信息

is they need infrastructure.

是他们需要基础设施。

That's what it's taking for us to work with governments

这就是我们与政府合作所需要的，

to make sure that we bring more charging to everyone,

以确保我们为所有人提供 更多的充电，

whether it's rural, urban,

无论是农村、城市、

wealthy, low-income, we all need chargers.

富人、低收入者， 我们都需要充电装置。

And I'm not saying we need one on every corner,

我并不是说我们需要 在每个角落都有一个，

but we do need many, many more.

但我们确实需要更多。

When we start building out the charging infrastructure, we need lighting.

当我们开始建设充电 基础设施时，我们需要照明。

We need, you know, security, shelter, we need restrooms.

你知道，我们需要安全的场所， 并配置洗手间。

We need other amenities

我们需要其他便利设施，

so that people know where to go, where to charge.

这样人们才能知道该去 哪里，在哪里充电。

Next comes capacity.

接下来是产能。

We have to invest in new facilities and talent.

我们必须投资 新的设施和人才。

Now, that's true for any industry transitioning to greener goals

现在，对于任何向更环保的目标和战略 过渡的行业来说都是如此。

and strategies.

And we're investing in talent,

我们还在投资人才，

we're investing in education and training,

投资教育和培训，

and we're also listening to the communities

我们也在倾听 我们生活和经营

where we live and operate.

所在社区的意见。

MZ: So a young Cynthia Williams, now,

MZ：所以假如一位年轻的Cynthia Williams，

your counterpart who's studying engineering,

正在学习工程学的同行，

will she be learning something very different

如果她想去底特律的汽车行业工作，

if she wants to go and work in the automotive industry in Detroit?

她会学的是不同专业吗？

CW: There will be different options, right.

CW：会有更多不同的选择。

And so, I'm a mechanical engineer by trade,

我是一名机械工程师，

but I think there will be opportunities for electrical engineering,

但我认为，电气工程、

software engineering.

软件工程专业将有更多机会。

And there's even certificates that students can get

学生甚至可以获得证书，

instead of going through a four-year college.

而不必上四年制大学。

It's the proper training to get them right, to be dedicated,

这是适当的培训，可以让 他们做好准备，

to build the vehicles that we need for the future.

专心致志地 制造未来所需的车辆。

At the end of this year, globally,

到今年年底，

we’ll have the ability to produce 600,000 electric vehicles.

我们将有能力在全球范围内生产 60万辆电动汽车。

And in 2026, we’ll have a global goal to produce two million electric vehicles.

到2026年，我们的全球目标将是 生产200万辆电动汽车。

And it just goes up from there.

产能开始飞速上升了。

MZ: What is this going to look like,

MZ：在接下来的几年里，

this growth for me in the next couple of years, in five years, in 20 years?

比如五年内、二十年内， 这种增长对我的影响会是什么样子？

CW: Clean air.

CW：更清洁的空气。

That's what I look at.

我就是这么认为的。

If you think about when we were, during the pandemic,

如果你想一想， 在疫情期间，

when everybody stopped driving and they were at home,

每个人都停止开车，待在家中，

clear skies and moving to zero tailpipe emission vehicles.

晴朗的天空和零尾气排放的车辆。

And if you chose an electric vehicle,

如果你选择了电动汽车，

that's you participating

那就是你在参与其中，

and you contributing to a better world,

为一个更美好的世界、

to a better future.

一个更美好的未来做出了贡献。

We have come a long way.

我们已经走了很长一段路。

It's so gratifying to see electric vehicles on the road,

十分欣慰地看到电动汽车上路，

to move from aspiration to reality.

从愿望变为现实。

To see plants dedicated to building electric vehicles.

看到专门用于制造 电动汽车的工厂。

We have the technology,

我们有技术，

we have the leadership,

我们有领导力，

we have the ingenuity to respond to the environmental crisis with courage.

我们有勇敢应对 环境危机的聪明才智。

And I'll tell you, as a person who's dedicated my entire career

我要告诉你，作为一个 在整个职业生涯中

to sustainability,

都致力于可持续发展的人，

the road ahead is paved with promise.

前进的道路充满希望。

(Applause)

（掌声）

TED-Ed: If you were buying a car in 1899,

TED-Ed：如果你在1899年买车，

you would have had three major options to choose from.

你将有三个主要的 选择可供选择。

You could buy a steam-powered car,

你可以购买一辆蒸汽动力汽车，

typically relying on gas-powered boilers.

通常依赖汽油锅炉。

These could drive as far as you wanted,

它们可以随心所欲地行驶，

provided you also wanted to lug around extra water to refuel

前提是你还愿意带上 多余的水来补充能量，

and didn't mind waiting 30 minutes for your engine to heat up.

并且不介意等待 30 分钟让发动机升温。

Alternatively, you could buy a car powered by gasoline.

或者，你可以购买 一辆由汽油提供动力的汽车。

However, the internal combustion engines in these models

但是，这些车辆中的内燃机

required dangerous hand cranking to start

需要危险的手摇才能启动，

and emitted loud noises and foul smelling exhaust while driving.

并在行驶时发出响亮的噪音 和难闻的尾气。

So your best bet was probably option number three:

因此，你最好的选择 可能是第三个选项：

a battery-powered electric vehicle.

电池供电的电动汽车。

These cars were quick to start, clean and quiet to run,

这些汽车起步迅速、 干净、安静，

and if you lived somewhere with access to electricity,

如果你住在通电的地方，

easy to refuel overnight.

很容易在一夜之间充满电。

If this seems like an easy choice, you're not alone.

如果这似乎是一个简单的选择， 很多人这么认为。

By the end of the 19th century,

到19世纪末，

nearly 40 percent of American cars were electric.

将近40％的美国汽车是电动的。

In cities with early electric systems,

在拥有早期电动系统的城市中，

battery-powered cars were a popular and reliable alternative

电池驱动的汽车是偶尔 爆炸性竞争对手的

to their occasionally explosive competitors.

热门且可靠的替代方案。

But electric vehicles had one major problem.

但是电动汽车 有一个主要问题。

Batteries.

电池。

MZ: Flash forward to the present

MZ：快进到现在，

and batteries are still on everyone's mind.

电池还在每个人 的脑海中。

So I visited Mujeeb Ijaz,

因此，我拜访了Mujeeb Ijaz，

the founder of the energy storage company One,

储能公司One的创始人，

who also happens to be an electric vehicle history buff.

他恰好也是电动汽车 历史爱好者。

Mujeeb Ijaz: So this is a 1922 Detroit Electric.

Mujeeb Ijaz：这是一辆 1922年的底特律电动车。

MZ: OK, so 100-year-old vehicle.

MZ：那辆车已经有 100 年历史了。

MI: That's right, electric vehicle.

MI：没错，电动汽车。

And then this was Walter Baker.

然后这是沃尔特·贝克。

He developed the Baker Electric.

他开发了贝克电气。

And he made the range run 201 miles on a single charge.

而且他一次充电 即可行驶201英里。

He also felt strongly that you should be able to wear your top hat, you know,

他也强烈地觉得 你应该能够戴上你的礼帽，

so he has a taller carriage.

这样他的车厢设计就更高了。

These had lead acid batteries to begin with.

它们一开始就用铅酸电池。

And then Thomas Edison introduced the nickel-iron battery.

然后托马斯·爱迪生 推出了镍铁电池。

So this is the battery compartment, one of the battery compartments.

这是电池舱， 其中一个电池舱。

And this is where you would charge.

这就是你要充电的地方。

MZ: Right there?

MZ：就在那里？

MI: And we're building on what these original pioneers did.

MI：我们正在这些最初的先驱者 所做的事情上再接再厉。

And I think it's important to not think about us starting from scratch now.

而且我认为重要的是 不要认为我们现在从头开始。

But go backwards,

而是回过头来，

think about how they solved the problem,

想一想他们是如何解决问题的，

what disrupted their ability to advance this to the market,

是什么阻碍了他们 将其推向市场的能力，

and then pick those problems up and make sure we don't get stuck again.

然后解决这些问题 确保我们不会再次陷入困境。

MZ: So we've been here before,

MZ：所以我们曾经有过（那个阶段），

a moment when electric vehicles could have taken off but didn't.

那时电动汽车 本可以起飞但没有。

So what do we need to do differently this time?

那么，这次我们需要做些什么 不同的事情呢？

MI: Electric vehicles were able to deal with mobility in urban areas,

MI：电动汽车能够 应对城市地区的出行问题，

but there were charging deserts

但是在缺少充电地区，

where rural driving resulted in no way to get back

如在农村驾驶可能 导致无法返回，

because you couldn't find electric charging everywhere.

因为到处都找不到充电设施。

And that was a problem.

这就是问题所在。

MZ: And that's what people are worried about right now.

MZ：这就是人们 现在所担心的。

We're at the same thing.

我们有同样的看法。

We're worried about range, we're worried about accessibility.

我们担心续航里程， 我们担心可访问性。

All of the things are the same.

所有的事情都是一样的。

But the key difference being that we now know

但关键区别在于，

that our planet can't keep going like this.

我们现在知道我们的星球 不能继续这样运转。

MI: That's right.

MI：没错。

Had the vision of the Model T assembly line

如果将Model T装配线

and mass manufacturing been applied to electric car,

和批量生产的愿景 应用于电动汽车，

the electric car would have also dropped in price,

电动汽车的价格 也会下降，

but range and charging deserts would have still been the obstruction.

但里程焦虑和充电焦虑 仍将是障碍。

MZ: OK.

MZ：好吧。

We didn't have the technology, but we do now.

我们之前没有技术， 但现在做到了。

MI: We do now.

MI：是的，我们现在做到了。

MZ: In the US, there hasn’t been a mass move to electric vehicles ... yet.

MZ：在美国，还没有 大规模转向电动汽车...

Mujeeb's company is one of many who want to change that by building batteries

Mujeeb的公司是众多希望通过制造长续航电池 来改变这种状况的公司之一，

that give drivers longer range.

这些电池可以为驾驶员 提供更长的续航里程。

And these batteries aren't just for cars.

而且这些电池不仅仅用于汽车。

MI: So we produce battery packs for transportation,

MI：因此，我们生产 用于运输的电池组，

but we've also started developing

但我们也开始将相同的电池产品

the same battery products into grid batteries.

开发成电网电池。

So micro-grids are those technologies that combine solar and storage

因此，微电网技术是那些将 太阳能和储能相结合

and replace a coal plant or a natural gas plant

并取代燃煤电厂 或天然气电厂

for generating electricity.

发电的技术。

So buildings and industry

因此，建筑物、工业

and transportation all working together.

和交通业共同运作。

And that's an exciting future, is all these industries working together,

如果所有这些行业齐心协力， 那将是一个令人兴奋的未来，

that makes me more confident

这使我更加相信

that we're at the time in history where this transition will take place.

我们正处于这种转变的历史时期。

MZ: How many years till we get to that?

MZ：我们还有多少年才能做到这一点？

MI: I think it's within 10 years.

MI：我认为在10年之内。

MZ: No way, 10 years?

MZ：真的吗，10 年之内？

MI: We're in a place where that transition is going to be much more visible,

MI：我们正处于一个 逐渐明显的转变，

and then we just need technologies to drive it up to the mass markets.

然后我们只需要技术 来推动它进入大众市场。

MZ: I am so excited.

MZ：我太激动了。

Like, genuinely so excited.

真的很兴奋。

Everyone everywhere driving electric sounds great,

每个人到处驾驶电动车， 听起来很不错，

but that also means that the power to charge all those vehicles

但这也意味着 为这些车辆充电的电源

needs to be green.

必须是绿色清洁的。

And that brings us to the energy sector,

这使我们想到了能源行业，

which is also changing at an incredible pace,

尽管可再生能源已经 形成了多年，

even though renewable energy has been years in the making.

但该行业也在以惊人的速度变化。

[Chapter 3: Renewables]

[第 3 章：可再生能源]

TED-Ed: In the spring of 1954, the press excitedly gathered

TED-Ed：1954 年春天， 媒体兴奋地聚集在

around Bell Laboratories’ latest invention:

贝尔实验室最新发明的周围：

a silicon-based solar cell that could efficiently convert

一种可以高效地将太阳能量

the sun's energy into electrical current.

转化为电流的 硅基太阳能电池。

The creation was celebrated as the dawn of a new era,

这一创造被誉 为新时代的黎明，

as reporters touted

因为记者们吹捧

that civilization would soon run on the sun's limitless energy.

文明将很快依靠 太阳的无限能量运转。

But the dream had a catch.

但是这个梦想有一个陷阱。

As this first commercially sold solar cell cost around 300 dollars per watt,

由于第一块商业销售的太阳能电池 每瓦特的成本约为300美元，

meaning at its current rate it would cost well over a million dollars

这意味着按照目前的价格， 购买一个足够大的单元

to buy a unit large enough to power a single home.

来为单个家庭供电的成本 将超过100万美元。

But today, in many countries,

但是今天，在许多国家，

solar is the cheapest form of energy to produce,

太阳能是生产成本 最低的能源，

surpassing fossil fuel alternatives like coal and natural gas.

超过了煤炭和天然气等 化石燃料替代品。

Millions of homes are equipped with rooftop solar,

数以百万计的家庭 配备了屋顶太阳能，

with most units paying for themselves in their first seven to 12 years

其中大多数单元 在最初的7到12年内可以收回成本，

and then generating further savings.

然后进一步节省开支。

So how did solar become so affordable?

那么太阳能是如何变得如此实惠的呢？

A turning point in solar's price history

太阳能价格历史的转折点

occurred on the floor of Germany's parliament,

出现在德国议会，

where in 2000, Hermann Scheer introduced the Renewable Energy Sources Act.

2000年，Hermann Scheer在议会中 提出了《可再生能源法》。

This legislation laid out a vision for the country's energy future

该立法为该国太阳能和风能的 能源未来设定了愿景。

in solar and wind.

It incentivized citizens to personally invest in rooftop solar panels

它激励公民个人投资 屋顶太阳能电池板，

by guaranteeing payment to homeowners for the renewable energy they generated

保证向房主支付 他们生产和出售

and sold to the grid.

给电网的可再生能源的款项。

The pay rate for this electricity was highly subsidized,

这种电价得到大量补贴，

at times reaching four times the market price.

有时达到市场价格的四倍。

Several other countries soon followed Germany's example,

其他几个国家很快效仿德国，

implementing similar policies and incentives

实施了类似的 政策和激励措施

to drive their country's solar use.

来推动本国的太阳能使用。

This created unprecedented demand for solar panels worldwide.

这为全球太阳能电池板 创造了前所未有的需求。

Manufacturers were able to scale up production

制造商能够扩大生产规模，

and innovate in ways that cut costs.

并研发降低成本的方法。

As a result, solar panel prices dropped while efficiency grew.

结果，太阳能电池板价格下降， 而效率却在提高。

HD: We see the cost reduction in solar

HD：我们看到太阳能

and other renewable energy technologies has been so steep,

和其他可再生能源 技术的成本降低幅度如此之大，

but a lot of it is because of the enabling regulatory and policy environments

但很大程度上是因为欧盟和美国等地

created in places like the European Union and the US.

创造了有利的监管和政策环境。

Akil Callender: We cannot divert catastrophic climate change

Akil Callender：如果不解决能源系统的 排放问题，

without addressing emissions

我们就无法转移 灾难性的气候变化。

coming from our energy systems.

Currently, emissions from the energy system

目前，能源系统的排放约占

account for around two thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions.

全球温室气体排放 量的三分之二。

So the good news is, yes, we are seeing tremendous progress

因此，好消息是， 我们的确看到全球在

across the globe in renewable energy.

可再生能源方面取得了巨大进展。

It's rolling out faster than ever before.

它的推进速度比以往任何时候都快。

Luisa Neubauer: The brilliant thing about energy supply in the world

Luisa Neubauer：世界上能源供应的绝妙之处

is that we have alternatives.

在于我们有替代方案。

So we don't need fossil fuels

因此，我们不需要化石燃料

to provide safe and equitable access to energy systems.

来提供安全、公平的 能源系统使用渠道。

Ramón Méndez Galain: Almost 90 percent of the total new installed capacity

Ramón Méndez Galain: 全世界新增 装机容量的近90％

all over the world is just renewable.

都是可再生的。

This is a tremendous change.

这是一个巨大的变化。

AC: There's more finance than ever before going into clean energy.

AC：用于清洁能源的资金比以 往任何时候都多。

In many countries, it is the largest contributor to their electricity system

在许多国家，它有史以来 第一次成为其电力系统的

for the first time ever.

最大占比。

KB: And also because China is the leading manufacturing nation in the world,

KB：而且，由于中国是世界 领先的制造业国家，

change is happening there much faster.

那里的变化发生得更快。

And those innovations are then spreading around the world.

这些创新正在 世界各地传播。

Hongquiao Liu: China's coal demand might not have peaked,

刘虹桥：中国的煤炭需求 可能尚未达到顶峰，

and China will continue to consume quite a lot of coal in the next few years.

未来几年中国将继续 消耗大量煤炭。

But the decarbonization is happening.

但是脱碳正在发生。

It's happening faster than anyone has expected,

它的发生速度 比任何人预期的都要快，

and China is adding an astonishing amount of wind and solar

中国每年都在为其电网增加

to its grid every year.

数量惊人的风能和太阳能。

Eduarda Zoghbi: I think one of the biggest obstacles today

Eduarda Zoghbi：我认为当今 最大的障碍之一

are natural resources,

是自然资源，

in the sense that we're talking more and more about critical minerals

从某种意义上说，我们越来越多地 谈论关键矿产

and the role that they have.

及其所起的作用。

And batteries are demanding a lot of critical minerals

电池需要大量关键矿物，

that are present in most of the developing countries.

而这些矿物存在于大多数发展中国家。

So I think that even though costs are decreasing,

因此我认为，尽管成本在降低，

we have to be more and more creative when it comes to recycling the batteries.

但在回收电池方面， 我们必须发挥越来越多的创造力。

We also have to think of how they're impacting local communities.

我们还必须考虑 它们如何影响当地社区。

KB: So to give you the numbers, we extract, at the moment,

KB：因此，给你提供一些数字， 我们目前每年提取

15,000 million tons of fossil fuels every year.

1.5亿吨化石燃料。

The International Energy Agency says that we will need about 43 million tons

国际能源署表示，我们将需要大约

4,300万吨的关键材料，

of critical materials

in order to build out the clean energy economy.

来建设清洁能源经济。

So that’s 300 times less stuff that is required.

因此，所需的资源减少了300倍。

It's worth saying that the impact

值得一提的是，

of extracting 300 times less stuff upon nature

少开采300倍的资源对自然的影响

is dramatically lower.

大幅降低。

And I know that it's often argued

而且我知道人们经常争辩

that the renewable economy may be damaging for nature.

说可再生经济 可能对自然造成损害。

Again, this is a completely false statement.

再说一遍，这是一个完全 错误的说法。

It's in fact, our only chance of reducing the pressure upon our natural resources,

实际上，这是我们减轻 自然资源压力的唯一机会，

because there's far less of it.

因为自然资源实在太少了。

MZ: Of course, transitioning to using clean energy, upending industries,

MZ：当然，过渡到使用 清洁能源，颠覆行业，

it has to happen across the world, not just here in the US.

它必须发生在世界各地， 而不仅仅是在美国。

And it can be hard to even imagine what life will be like.

甚至很难想象未来生活 会是什么样子。

But carbon scientist and futurist Julio Friedmann can help us.

但是碳科学家和未来学家 Julio Friedmann可以帮助我们。

Julio Friedmann: I think we need a compelling vision of the future

Julio Friedmann：我认为我们需要 一个令人信服的未来愿景，

that gets people excited about the energy transition

让人们对能源转型

and solving climate change.

和解决气候变化 感到兴奋。

Right now, it's like we're at a restaurant

现在，就像我们在餐厅一样，

and there's two options: burnt toast, unflavored oatmeal.

有两种选择： 烤香的吐司，无味的燕麦片。

And people are not excited about either, right?

而且人们对此都 不感到兴奋，对吧？

The burnt toast option for me is what I call the big switch.

对我来说，烤吐司选项 就是我所说的大转变。

Everything's the same, it's just clean,

一切都一样，只是更清洁，

but it costs a lot of money and it's super hard to do.

但是要花很多钱， 而且很难做到。

The other vision is kind of like, “Thou shalt not.”

另一种愿景有点像， “不可做”

That vision is a narrower sort of, “eat your peas,” hair shirt

这种愿景是一种狭隘的， “吃你的豌豆”，

kind of vision of the future.

是对未来的愿景。

And a lot of people don't want that either.

而且很多人 也不想要那样。

And there's nothing in the physics, chemistry or biology

在物理学、化学或生物学中， 没有任何东西说

that says we can't have a super interesting, exciting,

我们不能拥有一个 超级有趣、令人兴奋、

vibrant world.

充满活力的世界。

And that is compelling in a way that we have not heard yet.

这在某种程度上令人信服， 我们还没有听说过。

MZ: Help me out here, what does that even look like?

MZ：帮我解释一下， 那到底是什么样子？

JF: So, for lack of a better word, like, I like the Marvel cinematic universe.

JF：由于缺少更好的词，比如， 我喜欢漫威电影世界。

MZ: OK, I'll go with you.

MZ：可以，请说。

JF: So a place like Wakanda, right?

JF：那么像瓦坎达（漫威漫画中虚构的 非洲国家）这样的地方，对吧？

It's got flying cars, it's got maglev trains,

这里有飞行汽车， 有磁悬浮列车，

and it's a totally fabulous place to live.

这是一个非常棒的生活场所。

Like, they've got lots of food.

比如，他们有很多食物。

That is built on abundant, sustainable, cheap energy.

这是建立在丰富、可持续、 廉价的能源之上的。

MZ: OK, so like, we're not Wakanda, we're not in the Marvel universe.

MZ：好吧，比如，我们不是在瓦坎达， 我们不在漫威宇宙中。

This is real life, sort of.

在某种程度上，这就是现实生活。

How do we make this possible?

我们如何使之成为可能？

JF: So what can you actually do here on Earth,

JF：那么，在受到经济学和工程学 以及其他所有因素的限制下，

constrained by economics and engineering and all the rest of it, right?

你在地球上能做些什么，对吧？

And the answer is we can do an incredible amount.

答案是我们可以 做很多事情。

Abundant, available where you want it, when you want it.

丰富（的清洁能源）， 随时随地可用。

Everybody should have energy,

每个人都应该有能源，

including the three billion people who use less electricity

包括用电量少于我冰箱 用电量的三十亿人。

than my refrigerator uses.

Well, the good news is, every day, the Earth receives 163,000 terawatts

好消息是，地球每天从太阳 获得16.3万太瓦的能量。

of energy from the sun.

About half of that bounces back to space,

其中大约有一半会反射回太空，

but about 80,000 terawatts arrive at the Earth

但大约有8万太瓦以我们可以 使用的形式到达地球。

in a form we can use.

For reference, today, the world uses about 26 terawatts of energy,

作为参考，如今世界消耗的 能源约为26太瓦，

and we got more than solar and wind.

而我们得到的不仅仅是太阳能和风能。

We have geothermal, we have hydro, we have nuclear.

我们有地热，有水能，有核能。

There’s other kinds of clean energies.

还有其他种类的清洁能源。

And some of the best resources are, in fact, in the Global South.

事实上，一些最好的能源资源 位于“全球南方”。

These places are not simply future climate victims.

这些地方不仅仅是 未来气候变化的受害者。

These places are latent energy superpowers.

这些地方也是潜在的 能量超级大国。

My favorite example of this is Chile.

我最喜欢的例子是智利。

Almost eight years ago now their government said,

差不多八年前， 他们的政府说，

wait a second, we can make the cheapest green electricity on Earth.

“等一下，我们可以生产地球上 最便宜的绿色电力。

We have hydropower, we have solar power,

我们有水力发电， 我们有太阳能，

we have wind power and the best resources anywhere in the world.

我们有风能和 世界上最好的资源。

So let's start by making a lot of green electricity.

因此，让我们从生产 大量的绿色电力开始”

And then they said, because of that,

然后他们说，“正因为如此，

we can also make green hydrogen cheaper than anywhere else.

我们也可以使绿色氢气 比其他任何地方都便宜”

And then Japan was like, hello, we want your green hydrogen.

然后日本说，“你好， 我们想要你的绿色氢气。

Can you ship it to us?

你能把它运给我们吗？”

MZ: Is that possible?

MZ：这可能吗？

JF: Totally.

JF：完全可以。

And Japan is like, we will also give you money to pay for these projects.

日本就像，“我们还会给你 钱来支付这些项目的费用。

We'll loan you money to pay for these projects.

我们会借钱给你 支付这些项目的费用。

Could you please use Japanese technology?

你能用日本的技术吗？”

So they're using Japanese turbines, electrolyzers,

因此，他们使用日本的 涡轮机，电解装置，

they're using Japanese ships to haul the ammonia around.

他们使用日本的船只 来运送氨气。

So Japan gets rich on this,

因此，日本因此致富，

Chile gets rich on this.

智利因此致富。

MZ: Win-win.

MZ：双赢。

JF: Totally win-win.

JF：完全双赢。

MZ: Win-win-win, planet, too.

MZ：三赢，还有地球也获益。

JF: And that model, other countries are looking at that, going,

JF：还有那个合作模式，其他国家 也在考虑这个模式，

I want some of that.

我也想要这样。

And that's why I like this vision of abundance.

这就是为什么我喜欢 这种清洁能源的愿景。

15 years ago, solar was the most expensive power.

15 年前，太阳能 是最昂贵的电力。

Now it is the cheapest form of electricity, right?

现在它是最便宜的 电力形式，对吧？

Which is astonishing, it's totally amazing.

这太令人惊讶了， 太神奇了。

And a whole bunch of people are like, now we're done.

一大群人就像， 现在我们已经完成了。

And I'm like, no, we can do that with everything.

我则认为，不，很多事情都 可以实现这样。

We can do that with wind.

我们可以用风能做到。

We can do that with nuclear, we can do that with geothermal.

我们可以用核能做到， 我们可以用地热做到。

But these projects take time, money and people.

但是这些项目需要时间、 金钱和人力。

We need to develop the human capital

几十年来，我们需要将人力资本

as part of these investment projects for decades.

作为这些投资 项目的一部分进行开发。

And innovation,

以及创新，

we need much more energy in many places, much cheaper.

我们在许多地方需要 更多更便宜的能源。

That's an innovation agenda.

这需要不断的创新。

For solar, that was the United States, Germany, China

对于太阳能而言， 那是美国、德国、中国

and others acting together.

和其他国家共同行动。

Well, if that's the recipe, we can do that again.

好吧，如果这是秘诀， 我们可以再做一次。

We're already doing it with electric vehicles and clean hydrogen production.

我们已经在电动汽车和清洁氢气生产 方面做到了这一点。

We can certainly do it by turning electricity into fuels.

我们当然可以通过将电力 转化为燃料来做到这一点。

MZ: It sounds like the climate discussion needs to be kind of like improv,

MZ：听起来气候讨论 必须有点像即兴表演，

that it's a "yes and" sort of thing.

这是 “是的，而且…” 之类的事情。

JF: I'm so glad you said that.

JF：我很高兴你这么说。

So many people don't understand my love of improv comedy.

很多人不明白 我对即兴喜剧的热爱。

Yes, it is a “yes and” circumstance.

是的，这是一个 “是的，而且…” 的情况。

Because mostly it is about room for agreement.

因为这主要是 关于达成协议的余地。

Where do you find the point where everybody is like,

你在哪里可以找到每个人的感觉，

I can agree on that?

我能同意这个观点吗？

One of the things I love about the infrastructure bill,

我喜欢《基础设施法案》的一点是，

one of the things I love about the Inflation Reduction Act,

我喜欢《通胀削减法案》的一点是，

neither of them had the word climate in it.

这两个法案中都没有气候这个词。

They were both massive climate bills, right?

它们都是巨额的 气候法案，对吧？

That was a way to get everybody on the same page.

这是让所有人达成共识 的一种方式。

Nationwide, they basically tripled the clean energy research budget.

在全国范围内，他们基本上 将清洁能源研究预算增加了三倍。

That's a good start.

这是一个良好的开端。

But that made it all of one percent of GDP.

但这使它全部 占国内生产总值的百分之一。

And for comparison, we spend twice that on pharmaceuticals.

相比之下，我们在药品上的支出 是原来的两倍。

So I think it's fair to say we should get going.

因此，我认为可以公平地说， 我们应该开始行动。

We should spend a lot more money.

我们应该多花很多钱。

We've done stuff like this before.

我们以前做过这样的事情。

We've done World War II, we've done the Marshall Plan,

我们已经完成了第二次世界大战， 我们完成了马歇尔计划，

like, we’ve done the space shot,

比如，我们已经完成了太空射击，

like we actually know how to move really quickly as a nation.

就像我们实际上知道 如何作为一个国家快速行动一样。

We did this for COVID.

我们这样做是为了COVID疫情。

Collective action,

集体行动、

building together is what makes the difficult possible

共同建设，使难题成为可能，

and nourishes the soul through mission and purpose.

并通过使命和目标滋养灵魂。

We know what to do and we can act,

我们知道该怎么做， 我们可以采取行动，

not out of anger or fear,

不是出于愤怒或恐惧，

but out of generosity and common purpose,

而是出于慷慨和共同的目标，

bringing aspiration and humility together.

将抱负和谦卑结合在一起。

We're going to build a thriving, vibrant,

我们将建立一个繁荣、充满活力、

exciting world full of potential

令人兴奋、充满慷慨和潜力的世界，

that's going to be built on the back of infrastructure,

这个世界将建立在基础设施、

innovation and investment

创新和投资的支持下，

that will harness the abundant, sustainable, cheap energy

利用作为我们地球所赐的

that is our planet's endowment.

丰富的、可持续的、廉价的能源。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）

[Chapter 4: A Just Transition]

[第四章：公正的过渡]

FD: There is a high risk that when those exponential kick in,

FD：当这些指数增长出现时，

we see businesses running after those opportunities.

我们很有可能看到企业 在抓住这些机会。

But then the distribution of the benefits being very unequal.

但是随之而来的是 利益的分配非常不平等。

EZ: Many people like discussing the importance

EZ：许多人喜欢讨论

of the just energy transition.

能源转型公正的重要性。

And a lot of people don't understand what justice really means.

而且很多人不明白 公正的真正含义。

If we are to reach a revolution,

如果我们要实现革命，

a renewable energy future has to be inclusive.

那么可再生能源的未来 必须是包容性的。

AC: We have this push

AC：我们正在推动我们所谓的

for what we're calling a just and equitable energy transition.

公正和公平的能源转型。

We need to make sure that we are not exacerbating inequality,

我们需要确保我们 不会加剧不平等现象，

but rather we are ensuring that that gap is closed

而是要确保缩小差距，

and that the groups that have been historically marginalized

确保历史上被边缘化的

are not once again being marginalized in a new way.

群体不会再次以新的方式 被边缘化。

NT: Most of emissions come from wealthy, energy-guzzling citizens,

NT：大多数的排放 来自富有、耗能的公民，

but a lot of the economic benefit

但许多经济利益

and human development benefit will come

和人类发展利益

not from decarbonizing high-carbon lives and lifestyles,

将不会来自脱碳 高碳生活和生活方式，

but from providing clean,

而是要为那些无法获得 任何能源和工具的人

distributed energy and tools

and solutions to those who don't have access to any of them.

提供清洁、分布式能源 和工具及解决方案。

LN: When we speak of countries in need of economic development,

LN：当我们谈到需要 经济发展的国家时，

we mostly speak of countries that are hit by the climate crisis

我们主要谈论的是 目前受气候危机打击

the hardest right now.

最严重的国家。

It should be the biggest wish and job and task

对于所有那些已经燃烧了

for all those countries who have burned so much fossil fuel already

大量化石燃料的国家来说，

to support any other country in the so-called Global South,

支持所谓的“全球南方”的 任何其他国家，

to get an economy running without fossil fuels,

让经济在没有化石燃料的 情况下运行，不要重蹈覆辙，

to not repeat all the mistakes that we have made.

这应该是其最大的愿望、工作和任务。

HD: To ensure that the solar revolution that has been seen around the world

HD：为了确保世界各地出现的太阳能革命

comes to places like Africa,

能够惠及非洲这样的地方，

we need to be really conscious that the history and the lived experience

我们需要真正意识到，

when it comes to energy is very different for poor countries.

穷国在能源方面的历史和 生活经历是截然不同的。

Rebekah Shirley: We love to remind Global South communities,

Rebekah Shirley：我们喜欢提醒 “全球南方”的社区，

especially Africa,

尤其是非洲，

about the vast renewable energy potential that they have, which is true.

他们拥有巨大的可再生 能源潜力，这是事实。

But the finance flows to deliver on that potential remain very scarce.

但是，实现这一潜力的资金流 仍然非常稀缺。

Africa, despite being 90 percent of those across the entire globe

尽管在全球无电人口中，

that still do not have access to electricity

非洲约占90%，

and being 17 percent of the global population,

总人口占全球人口的17％，

we're actually two percent of international finance.

世界上GDP总量仅占全球的2%。

Money doesn't actually flow to these spaces naturally,

实际上，资金并不是 自然流向这些领域，

and we need to do a lot of work to get global finance to these spaces.

我们需要做很多工作 才能将全球金融注入这些领域。

MZ: A world of abundant clean energy for everyone.

MZ：一个为所有人提供丰富 清洁能源的世界。

That is the goal.

这就是目标。

But what about in the short term?

但短期内呢？

Take Detroit.

以底特律为例。

This once-wealthy city has been through some seriously hard times.

这座曾经富裕的城市经历了一 段严重的艰难时期。

How is it rebuilding itself

它如何自我重建，

so that everyone here can thrive

让这里的每个人都能

while dealing with extreme heat, flooding,

在应对极端高温、洪水

and other climate problems?

和其他气候问题的同时繁荣？

Anika Goss is looking to Detroit's past to plan its future.

Anika Goss正在回顾 底特律的过去，展望未来。

AG: I am a third-generation Detroiter.

AG：我是第三代底特律人。

My grandmother moved to Detroit in 1936

1936年，我的祖母在大迁徙期间

during the Great Migration

移居底特律，

and brought all of her southern ways with her.

并随身携带了 她所有的南方方法。

She owned a home

她拥有房屋，

and knew that home ownership would create wealth

并且知道房屋所有权

and opportunity for her growing family.

将为她成长中的家庭创造财富和机会。

Up until the late 1950s,

直到20世纪50年代末，

Detroit was a haven for middle-class families

底特律一直是 中产阶级家庭的避风港，

living in neighborhoods where there was green space

这些家庭生活在有绿地、

and community connectivity and opportunity.

有社区连通性和机会的社区。

My grandmother, she had this amazing garden,

我的祖母， 她有个神奇的花园，

and it was just abundant.

而且非常丰富。

There were all kinds of flowers and food.

有各种各样的鲜花和食物。

You know, she grew vegetables back there,

你知道，她在那里种蔬菜，

and it was just a magical place for a little girl.

对于一个小女孩来说， 那简直是个神奇的地方。

MZ: I mean, what you're describing is a Detroit that, yes, has huge problems,

MZ：我的意思是，你所描述的是 底特律，是的，有很大的问题，

segregation.

像种族隔离。

But at the same time, a woman,

但同时，一个女人，

she can have a job,

她可以有一份工作，

she can own a house, she can raise her family,

她可以拥有一所房子， 她可以养家，

she can have fresh fruits and vegetables.

她可以有新鲜的水果和蔬菜。

AG: It was certainly a place where you could gain economic opportunity

AG：这无疑是一个 你可以比现在

faster than you can now.

更快地获得经济机会的地方。

My grandmother's Detroit is not the Detroit that I live in today.

我祖母的底特律 不是我如今居住的底特律。

All of those sites where there was manufacturing

所有那些带动 我们经济繁荣的

and industrial sites that led to our economic boom,

制造业和工业用地的场地，

many stand vacant and abandoned.

许多都空置和废弃。

These industrial sites have led

这些工业用地

to dangerous contamination

对我们的土地、水和空气

to our land and our water and our air.

造成了严重的污染。

MZ: So, just lay it out for us.

MZ：所以，请更清楚地解释，

For people who maybe don't see,

对于那些可能不明白

like, how is there a link between economic inequality and climate change?

经济不平等与气候变化之间 有何联系的人来说？

AG: You know, I'm so surprised that it feels like separate problems.

AG：你知道，我很惊讶 这感觉就像是分开的问题。

But I'm also really glad that people are asking.

但我也很高兴有人提问。

Because if you're living around

因为如果你生活在

and working in a community that is low-income,

一个低收入社区、

where there are fewer jobs,

工作岗位较少、

the housing is deteriorated,

住房状况恶化，

this is a neighborhood that's also more likely to be closer to a factory

那么这个社区也 更有可能靠近工厂，

that's emitting pollutants,

工厂不断地排放污染物，

likely to have water that's contaminated,

水可能受到污染，

probably has fewer parks and fewer intentional green spaces.

公园更少，绿地也更少。

The people who are living in those communities

生活在这些社区的人们

are at risk for climate impacts first.

首先面临气候影响的风险。

So we have to do something in those neighborhoods right away.

因此，我们必须立即 为这些社区做点什么。

MZ: So what can this healthier future look like?

MZ：那么一个更健康的 未来会是什么样子呢？

Anika showed me some of the work she's done

Anika向我展示了她与底特律 不同社区合作

in partnership with different neighborhoods in Detroit,

所做的一些工作，

to make them both more enjoyable and more resilient.

目的是让这些社区 更愉快，更有韧性。

First, she took me to the Circle Forest.

首先，她带我去了Circle Forest。

It's an oasis right in the middle of the city.

这是城市中心的一片绿洲。

AG: This is six lots that were vacant,

AG：这是六块空置的地块，

and we all worked together with this community to build a forest.

我们和这个社区 一起建造了一片林地。

MZ: Beautiful and a great example

MZ：很漂亮，

of how nonprofits can work with communities

也是非营利组织如何 与社区合作，

to transform them into sustainable, welcoming places.

将其转变为可持续、 温馨场所的一个很好的例子。

AG: We might have a good idea about gardens and tree planting,

AG：我们可能 对花园和植树有一些想法，

but this is where people live.

但这是人们生活的地方。

And so you ask first.

所以你要先问大家。

This is a new effort,

这是一项新的举措，

of this idea of a resilient neighborhood or calling it that.

建设一个有韧性的社区。

So these are large tracts of vacancy

因此，这些空置空间很大，

that can be used to provide environmental sustainability,

可以用来提供 环境可持续性、

community resilience and beauty.

社区韧性和美观。

Watch for the poison ivy.

小心这个毒藤。

It's not pretend.

这不是假的。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

MZ: Next we met up with Katrina Watkins,

MZ：接下来我们会见了Katrina Watkins，

the founder and CEO of the Bailey Park Neighborhood Development Corporation,

贝利公园邻里开发公司的 创始人兼首席执行官

a group revitalizing this historic area by turning vacant lots into parks

该公司通过将空地变成 可以抵御极端天气的公园

that can stand up to extreme weather.

来振兴这个老旧片区。

Katrina Watkins: My family has been in this neighborhood since 1946.

Katrina Watkins：自1946年以来，我的家人 一直住在这个街区。

I grew up hearing the stories from my dad,

我从小就听我父亲的故事，

him telling me about how people thought it was a ghetto, but it wasn't.

他告诉我人们如何认为 这是一个贫民窟，但事实并非如此。

Those were families, and people worked and had businesses,

这里是一个个家庭， 人们工作和经商，

and people looked out for each other.

人们互相照顾。

And it was those type of stories that made me say,

正是这类故事让我说，

wow, we just really need to bring that back.

哇，我们真的需要 把它带回来。

MZ: So then briefly fill us in about how things changed.

MZ：那么请简要地向我们介绍 一下情况是如何变化的。

KW: Things deteriorated in this neighborhood.

KW：这个街区的 情况恶化了。

The homes got torn down,

房屋被拆除，

left just a lot of vacant lots, a lot of overgrowth.

只剩下很多空地， 大量的杂草生长。

It wasn't safe.

这不安全。

I would see my little nieces and nephews.

我会看见我的小侄女和侄子。

They would just be on their little skateboards,

他们只是在他们的小滑板上，

you know, not paying attention,

你知道，一不注意，

the stop sign is covered.

停车标志被遮住了。

And me and my dad was like, we just have to do something.

我和我父亲当时想， 我们只需要做点什么。

So we started out as Bailey Park Project,

因此，我们从贝利公园项目开始，

focusing on the park and green infrastructure and trees and flowers.

重点是公园和绿色 基础设施以及树木和花卉。

And then over the course of the years,

然后，在过去的几年中，

we started doing more community development.

我们开始进行 更多的社区发展。

MZ: I wonder, like, how do you describe it to people

MZ：我想知道，比如， 你会如何向人们描述：

when you explain what's happening,

当你解释正在发生的事情、

what you're trying to do for your neighborhood,

你想为社区做什么、

the changes that you're making and how it relates to climate change?

你正在做什么以及 它与气候变化的关系时？

KW: One really great example,

KW：有一个非常好的例子，

when people come to the park, like right now,

当人们来到公园时， 就像现在一样，

this is like, literally a heat island

这就像是一个热岛，

because our trees haven't grown.

因为我们的树还没有长出来。

So it is very hot.

所以很热。

So sometimes it's so hot that the kids don't come out

所以有时候天气太热了， 孩子们直到晚上

and play until the evening.

才出来玩耍。

That education of knowing the benefit of trees

这起到一定教育意义： 人们了解树木的好处

and cooling down an environment,

让环境降温，

how it makes the air cleaner.

以及如何使空气更清洁。

There's a lot of people that suffer from asthma.

有很多人患有哮喘。

So trees can make a difference.

因此，树木可以起到重要作用。

And if you go to places like Grosse Pointe,

如果你去Grosse Pointe 这样的地方，

you will see this beautiful tree canopy down.

你会看到一个美丽的树冠。

Like their homes are probably 20 degrees cooler

他们的房屋可能 比我们的房屋低20度。

you know, than our homes,

AG: Having a lot of green space

AG：拥有大量的绿色空间

actually contributes to the climate resiliency

实际上有助于提高

for this neighborhood.

这个社区的气候韧性。

So all of this grass actually can manage stormwater better.

因此，所有这些草实际上 可以更好地管理雨水。

The idea of leading new development in this neighborhood

以绿色引领这个社区 新发展的理念，

with green,

what it says to me

对我来说是，

is that the residents are really envisioning

是居民们真的在设想

the neighborhood that they want to live in.

他们想要居住的社区。

And that I just -- I'm really excited about that.

我只是对此，感到非常兴奋。

MZ: Turning great loss and upheaval into even greater opportunities.

MZ：将巨大的损失和动荡 转化为更大的机会。

These Detroiters are creating a blueprint for an urban future

这些底特律人正在 为城市未来绘制蓝图，

that every city can learn from.

每个城市都可以从中学习。

[Chapter 5: Agriculture]

[第 5 章：农业]

TED-Ed: About 10,000 years ago, humans began to farm.

TED-Ed：大约一万年前， 人类开始耕种。

This agricultural revolution was a turning point in our history

这场农业革命是 我们历史上的一个转折点，

that enabled people to settle, build and create.

它使人们能够定居、 建造和创造。

In short, agriculture enabled the existence of civilization.

简而言之， 农业促进了文明的存在。

Today, approximately 40 percent of our planet is farmland.

今天，我们地球上大约有 40％是农田。

Spread all over the world,

遍布世界各地的

these agricultural lands are the pieces to a global puzzle

这些农业用地， 是我们共同面对的

we are all facing.

全球难题的组成部分。

In the future,

未来，

how can we feed every member of a growing population a healthy diet?

我们如何才能为不断增长的人口的 每个成员提供健康的饮食？

Meeting this goal will require

为了实现这一目标

nothing short of a second agricultural revolution.

只需要第二次农业革命。

The first agricultural revolution

第一次农业革命的

was characterized by expansion and exploitation,

特点是扩张和剥削，

feeding people at the expense of forests,

以牺牲森林、野生动植物和水资源 为代价养活人们，

wildlife and water,

and destabilizing the climate in the process.

并在此过程中破坏了气候稳定。

That's not an option the next time around.

第二次不可以再重复这个选项。

Agriculture depends on a stable climate

农业依赖于稳定的气候，

with predictable seasons and weather patterns.

以及可预测的季节 和天气模式。

This means we can't keep expanding our agricultural lands,

这意味着我们不能继续 扩大我们的农业用地，

because doing so will undermine the environmental conditions

因为这样做会破坏

that make agriculture possible in the first place.

使农业成为可能的环境条件。

Instead, the next agricultural revolution

相反，第二次农业革命

will have to increase the output of our existing farmland for the long term

必须长期增加我们 现有农田的产量，

while protecting biodiversity, conserving water,

同时保护生物多样性、 保护水源、

and reducing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.

减少污染 和温室气体排放。

So what will the future farms look like?

那么未来的农场会是什么样子呢？

In Bangladesh, Cambodia and Nepal,

在孟加拉国、柬埔寨和尼泊尔，

new approaches to rice production

新的水稻生产方法

may dramatically decrease greenhouse gas emissions in the future.

可能会大大减少未来的 温室气体排放。

Rice is a staple food for three billion people

水稻是三十亿人的主食

and the main source of livelihood for millions of households.

也是数百万家庭的主要 生计来源。

More than 90 percent of rice is grown in flooded paddies,

90％以上的水稻种植在 被淹没的稻田中，

which use a lot of water

这些水田消耗了大量的水，

and release 11 percent of annual methane emissions,

每年释放的 甲烷排放量占11％，

which accounts for one to two percent

占全球年度温室气体 总排放量的1-2％。

of total annual greenhouse gas emissions globally.

By experimenting with new strains of rice, irrigating less

通过试验新的水稻品种、 减少灌溉水量和

and adopting less labor-intensive ways of planting seeds,

采用劳动密集度较低的播种方式，

farmers in these countries have already increased their incomes

这些国家的农民已经 增加了收入

and crop yields

和作物产量，

while cutting down on greenhouse gas emissions.

同时减少了温室气体排放。

MZ: Related technologies are also taking root in the US.

MZ：相关技术 也在美国扎根。

Father and daughter farmers, Jim and Jessica Whitaker,

一对农民父女， Jim和Jessica Whitaker

have come up with their own strategies to reduce methane

他们提出了自己的策略来减少

that are working on their farm in Arkansas.

在阿肯色州农场产生的甲烷。

But convincing everyone else to change is their next big challenge.

但是，说服其他人做出改变 是他们的下一个重大挑战。

So let's go back to how you got to be

因此，让我们回过头来看看

such a big supplier of rice in this country.

你是如何成为这个国家 如此大的大米供应商的。

You tell a story about how you were 22 and you were like,

你讲了一个关于 你22岁时候的故事，

I'm going to start my own farm, but --

当时你想，我要开 自己的农场，但是 ——

not that easy.

没那么容易。

Jim Whitaker: No, it's not.

Jim Whitaker：是不容易。

Let me tell you something about renting a farm when you're 22 years old.

让我告诉你一些 22 岁年轻人 租借农场会发生的事情。

No one rents you a farm unless no one else wants to rent it.

那就是没有人会 优先把农场租给你。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

It was a big piece of land, it was cash rent,

那是很大一片土地，租金不少。

I mean, the stakes were set.

也意味着，风险在这儿。

We were doomed to fail.

我们很可能失败。

And we weren't focused on environmental sustainability back then.

而当时我们并不关心 环保可持续性。

We were focused on economic sustainability.

我们只关心经济可行性。

How do we make higher yield?

我们如何提高产量？

How do we use less fertilizer?

如何减少肥料的使用？

How do we get to the next year and feed our family?

我们如何养家糊口， 保证农场存活到明年？

It happens that economic and environmental sustainability

碰巧的是， 经济和环境的可持续性与

go hand in hand along with social sustainability.

社会的可持续性是密切相关的。

As we used less fertilizer, used less water,

随着肥料与用水量的减少，

our yield started going up.

产量开始上升。

MZ: Can you spell out for me what the problem is with rice

MZ：你能解释一下水稻

when it comes to the environment?

在环境方面有什么问题吗？

JW: Soil is full of microbes.

JW：土壤中充满了微生物。

And what they're doing in the soil on a basic level

简单来说，它们 在土壤中做的是

is they're down there chewing away,

它们在那里咀嚼，

eating up the biomass that's left over from the crop before.

吃掉以前作物剩下的生物质。

And out of that comes methane,

由此产生甲烷，

the same way it happens in cattle operations or whatever.

就像在养牛业或其他农业场合中 发生的那样。

MZ: But you decided to do it a different way.

MZ：但是你决定 用不同的方式去做。

JW: We do it a little bit differently.

JW：我们的做法略有不同。

Arkansas is a very water-rich state,

阿肯色州是一个水资源 非常丰富的州，

but we have a dry season,

但我们有一个旱季，

right in the middle of summer is a dry season.

正值夏季中旬是旱季。

So when we dry the soil,

因此，当我们干燥土壤时，

that anaerobic microbial that's living in that soup,

生活在泥土的厌氧微生物，

that mushy soil, either dies or goes dormant.

要么死亡，要么进入休眠状态。

So we break his life cycle.

因此，我们打破了它的生命周期。

MZ: Oh!

MZ：哦！

JW: And then it stops emitting methane.

JW：然后它停止排放甲烷。

But it doesn't hurt the rice.

但这并不会伤害水稻。

That actually helps rice, when you use less water.

当你少用水时，这实际上 对水稻有帮助。

We have less runoff, less erosion, less nutrients leaving our field.

我们的径流更少，侵蚀更少， 我们田地流失的养分也更少。

Nothing leaves our field unless we want it to.

我们是封闭性的地块。

Jessica Whitaker Allen: We started tracking this.

Jessica Whitaker Allen: 我们开始追踪这个情况。

We saw that our water use was down and we thought,

我们看到用水量下降了， 我们想，

OK, well, we need to add to that, let's add more data points to that.

好吧，我们需要在此基础上 添加更多数据点。

Let's add our fertilizer, let's add our fuel usage.

让我们追踪肥料量， 让我们追踪燃料使用量。

And so we really started recording all this stuff by hand

因此，我们真正开始 在 Excel 电子表格中手工记录

in just an Excel spreadsheet.

所有这些内容。

We didn't know what we were doing.

我们(当时)不知道自己在做什么。

MZ: But you knew you were on to something.

MZ：但你知道自己在做一些事情。

JWA: Yes, so we started recording everything.

JWA：是的，所以我们开始 记录所有内容。

MZ: Do you remember if there was a moment when the two of you thought, like,

MZ：你还记得是否有一段时间 你们两个在想，比如，

what we're doing, it shouldn't be special to us.

我们在做什么， 这对我们有什么特别的吗。

Why aren't more people --

为什么没有更多的人——

JW: To collect the data, have the equipment

JW：要收集数据，拥有设备

and the cloud-based technology

和基于云的技术，

and the stuff in the field to record it,

以及现场的东西来记录数据，

it’s just massively time-consuming, and consumers don’t pay for it.

这非常耗时，而且消费者 不愿意为此付费。

JWA: Well and people like us, why would you want to do it?

JWA：像我们这样的人， 你为什么要这样做？

I mean, take a walk through your supermarket.

我的意思是， 当你在超市里逛时，

Everything’s sustainable, everything’s greenwashed.

一切都是可持续的， 一切都被涂成了绿色。

You can put whatever you want to on a package,

你可以随心所欲地设计包装，

there's no rules, there's no standards.

没有规则，没有标准。

So we're trying to make that standard.

因此，我们正在努力制定相关标准。

We live and work in southeast Arkansas.

我们在阿肯色州东南部生活和工作。

Our town has 4,000 residents and one stoplight.

我们这个镇有4,000名居民 和一个红绿灯。

The nearest airport, Starbucks shopping mall, Whole Foods,

距离我们最近的机场、星巴克、 购物中心、全食超市，

is two hours away in any direction.

都在两个小时车程以外。

Without places like this and farmers like us,

但不是这样的地方， 这样的农民，

you'd be hungry, naked and sober.

你们也不会有饭吃， 不会有衣服穿，也没有酒喝。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I'm a farmer, but not in the way you might think.

我是一名农民， 但与你想象的不同，

I don’t drive the tractors, and I don’t plant the rice.

我不开拖拉机， 也不耕种水稻。

But I know how to take what my dad has learned and what he is doing

但我懂得利用我父亲学到的知识， 利用他的实践方式，

and share that with others.

并与他人分享。

We are going to work with farmers in southeast Arkansas

我们将与阿肯色州 东南部的农民合作，

to educate them about the benefits

向他们普及

of growing sustainable rice.

种植可持续水稻的好处。

JW: Let me tell you why that's important.

JW：让我告诉你为什么这很重要。

There are 400 million acres of rice grown globally.

全球四亿英亩的土地用于种植水稻，

And our methods, if used, can reduce greenhouse gas by 50 percent,

如果使用我们的方法， 可以将温室气体排放量减少一半，

reduce water use by 50 percent,

用水量减半，

increase yields to feed a hungry world.

同时提高产量，养活世界。

(Applause)

（掌声）

MZ: We hear a lot about how weather has gotten more extreme, flooding, heat.

MZ：我们听到很多关于天气如何 变得更加极端、洪水、炎热的消息。

What's it been like in Arkansas?

在阿肯色州是什么样子？

JW: So in 2016, we had a 500-year flood.

JW：在2016年，我们遭遇了 500年一遇的洪水。

We were ...

我们曾经...

We get a picture of our place flooded.

我们有一张我们家被洪水淹没的照片。

14 inches of rain.

14 英寸的降水。

That was a 500-year flood.

那是一场500年一遇的洪水。

Hurt a lot of people.

很多人受损。

And then we had a 1,000-year flood.

然后我们遭遇了千年一遇的洪水。

And we lost so many acres.

而且我们失去了很多英亩的农田。

And you know, when houses get flooded in rural communities,

而且你知道，当郊区的房屋 被洪水淹没时，

they don't come back.

人们不会回来。

I mean, when you have whole neighborhoods get flooded,

我的意思是， 当整个社区都被洪水淹没时，

they don't rebuild them, they don't come back.

他们不会重建， 他们不会回来。

JWA: I feel like almost every day I'm getting a notification

JWA：我感觉几乎每天 我都会收到

from the weather Channel of an excessive heat warning

来自天气频道的 过热警告、雷暴警告、

or thunderstorm warning or hail threat.

或冰雹威胁的通知。

You know, you don't really know what you're going to expect.

你真的不知道自己会 期待什么。

MZ: When you think about what it will be like,

MZ：当你想一想未来，

I don’t know, five years, 10 years,

我不知道，五年、十年，

for someone to go into the supermarket and think, oh, right,

当有人去超市然后想，哦，对，

I need to get rice off my grocery list.

我需要把大米从购物清单上删除。

What ideally would you like to see on the shelf there?

理想情况下，你们希望 在货架上看到什么？

JW: So I think it’s going to change,

JW：所以我认为情况将会改变，

because I like to study what companies want.

因为我喜欢研究 公司想要什么。

I mean, if you figure out what they want, then you know what to give them.

我的意思是，如果你弄清楚他们想要什么， 那么你就知道该给他们什么。

And when you read their sustainability goals,

当你读到 他们的可持续发展目标时，

they're all saying they're going to be net zero.

他们都在说 他们将实现净零排放。

The only way they can be net zero is they bring the farmer into the loop.

他们实现净零的唯一方法 就是让农民参与其中。

So if we're able to do this,

因此，如果我们能够做到这一点，

in five years, everybody's doing these practices,

那么在五年内， 每个人都在这样实践，

the US rice industry

那么美国的大米行业将

will be the most sustainable industry in the world.

成为世界上最可持续的产业。

MZ: Can you do it?

MZ：你能做到吗？

JW: Oh, yeah.

JW：能做到。

It's about to happen.

它即将发生。

MZ: You've just heard a lot of ideas,

MZ：你刚刚听到了很多想法、

a lot of stories and a lot of big plans.

很多故事和很多宏伟的计划。

So we want to wrap things up

因此，我们想

by asking our experts:

通过问我们的专家来总结一下：

What if we actually achieved our climate goals?

如果我们真的实现了 气候目标会怎样？

What would that future even look like?

那未来会是什么样子？

They, of course, had a lot of thoughts.

当然，他们有很多想法。

We'll let you pick your favorites.

我们会让你选择你最喜欢的。

Thanks for watching.

感谢收看。

NT: If we are successful in addressing the climate crisis,

NT：如果我们成功 应对气候危机，

we massively reduce the vulnerability and improve the economic

我们就能大幅降低脆弱性 ， 改善全球数十亿人的

and the creative prospects of billions of people around the world

经济和创造前景，

who currently are basically excluded

而这些人目前基本上被排除在

from all of the opportunities which we have,

身边丰富的物质和能源

which come from having abundant material and energy all around us.

所带来的所有机会之外。

That's the real prize.

这才是真正的奖品。

FD: A world where we have had that exponential

FD：一个我们拥有如此 指数级增长的世界

would be a world in which we have clean, cheap energy for all.

将是我们为所有人提供 清洁、廉价能源的世界。

KB: At the end of this decade,

KB：在本十年末，

the International Energy Agency believes that we will have enough capacity

国际能源署认为， 我们将有足够的产能

to be producing 10 billion,

每年生产100亿，

10 billion batteries a year.

100亿块电池。

It's enough for every person on the planet to have their own battery.

这足以让地球上的每个人 拥有自己的电池。

AC: I'm constantly surrounded by young people just like me

AC：我身边经常有 像我一样的年轻人，

who are really, really, really passionate about the world that we live in.

他们对所生活的世界充满热情。

For obvious reasons.

出于显而易见的原因。

It's the world that we will inherit.

这是我们将传承的世界。

EZ: Women are very important for the energy transition.

EZ：女性对能源转型非常重要。

So if we're talking about a world where we have, you know,

因此，如果我们说的是一个 我们可以应对气候变化的世界，

where we tackle climate change, all I want to see is, you know,

你知道，我想要看到的只是，

women in power.

女性赋权。

I want to see more solutions being driven by young people.

我希望看到更多的解决方案 由年轻人推动。

And I want our politicians to be truly and meaningfully engaged in making change.

我希望我们的政治家 真正而有意义地参与变革。

NG: We always tend to underestimate the pace of ultimate adoption and change.

NG：我们总是倾向于低估 最终采用和改变的步伐。

Today, there are more than 150 pathways,

如今，我们可以 采取150多种途径和

scientific pathways that we could take to limit global warming.

科学途径来限制全球变暖。

Al Gore: If we get to true net zero,

Al Gore: 如果我们实现真正的净零排放，

astonishingly, global temperatures will stop going up

令人惊讶的是， 全球气温将停止升高，

with a lag time of as little as three to five years.

但延迟时间只有三到五年。

Colin Averill: We've been able to accelerate tree growth

Colin Averill：我们已经 能够加快树木的生长、

and carbon capture and tree stems by 30 to 70 percent.

加快碳捕集和树茎 约30％至70％。

Dan Jørgensen: Offshore wind has the potential

Dan Jørgensen：海上风电有可能

to cover the current electricity demand of the entire world

承担全世界当前的电力需求，

not once, not twice,

不是一倍，也不是两次，

18 times.

而是18倍。

NG: We need to decarbonize the old economy that we have

NG：我们需要使现有的传统经济脱碳，

and invest to create the new economy that we need

并进行投资以创造 我们需要的全新经济。

Paul Hawken: Regenerative farming is fairly simple in concept.

Paul Hawken：再生农业的概念 相当简单。

It means creating the conditions for more life.

这意味着 为更多的生命创造条件。

Josephine Phillips: We need to buy less stuff,

Josephine Phillips: 我们需要少买东西，

and we need to look after what we buy.

我们需要照顾好我们买的东西。

Valuing the things that we own is a climate solution.

珍惜我们拥有的东西 是一种气候解决方案。

Vishaan Chakrabarti: We can all live in this transit-rich, carbon-negative,

Vishaan Chakrabarti：我们所有人都可以过着这种交通充足、负碳排放、

affordable way

负担得起的方式生活，

and leave the vast majority of the planet for nature,

将地球上的绝大多数 地区留给自然、

for agriculture, for clean oceans.

农业、海洋。

We can do this.

我们可以做到。

Susan Ruffo: The ocean is a powerful source of solutions

Susan Ruffo：海洋是解决方案 的强大来源

that we've overlooked for far too long.

我们忽视了太久了。

Al Roker: You have to be engaged.

Al Roker：你必须参与其中。

Let your elected officials know that this is important to you.

让你的民选官员 知道这对你很重要。

You have to vote,

你必须投票，

you have to go out there

你必须出去支持

and support politicians who are going to support our planet.

那些支持我们地球的政客。

Peggy Shepard: We can create a legacy of environmental quality

Peggy Shepard：我们可以为所有人 创造环境质量

and climate resilience for all.

和气候韧性的遗产。

Fehinti Balogun: You are not powerless

Fehinti Balogun：你并非无能为力，

that the "oh, there's nothing we can do, just keep going" is symptom,

“哦，我们无能为力，继续摆烂”

not cure.

是症状，而不是良方。

But you are needed.

但是你被需要着。

Avinash Persaud: The power of what we can do

Avinash Persaud：当对我们很重要时，

when it matters to us is unlimited.

我们能做的力量是无限的。

CF: It's not that we're simply going to avoid

CF：这并不是说我们要仅仅避免

the worst impacts of climate change.

气候变化的最坏影响。

It’s that we’re going to improve the quality of life for humans,

我们要改善人类的生活质量，

both in the urban and in the rural sector,

无论是在城市还是农村，

and for non-humans.

以及所有生物的生活质量。