Why Isn’t the Climate Movement Voting? | Nathaniel Stinnett | TED

翻译人员: Sue Lu 校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung

I've worked in politics for over 20 years,

我在政界工作了 20 多年。

and one of the biggest barriers we face when addressing the climate crisis

应对气候危机时 我们面临的一个最大障碍，

is a lack of political will to enact all the climate solutions

就是缺乏政治意愿 将现有气候解决方案

that we already have,

付诸行动，

whether it's energy permitting,

无论是能源许可、

pollution regulation, tax codes, building codes, you name it.

污染监管、税法， 还是建筑法规，等等。

The reason so little is getting done

之所以几乎什么都没做，

is often because it's easier to win elections

常常是为了更容易赢得选举，

by ignoring the climate crisis rather than addressing it.

而忽视气候危机比解决危机更易赢。

In the United States, and that's my focus today,

在美国，美国是今天演讲重点，

much of this is due to political spending by fossil fuel companies

很大程度上， 这是来自 化石燃料公司和特殊利益集团的

and other special interests.

政治投资造成的问题。

And currently there just aren't enough climate voters in the United States

而目前美国的气候选民非常不足，

to overcome that spending

无法克服这笔投资带来的效应，

and get politicians to do what science tells us is necessary.

无法让政客去做遵循科学的必要之事。

I believe, however, that we can overcome this problem

但我相信我们可以克服这个问题，

and we can dramatically increase the number of climate voters,

可以显著增加气候选民数量，

and that we can do so without having to convince millions of people

而且不必说服数百万人 去关注气候变化，就能做到这点。

to start caring about climate change.

In fact, we may not even have to talk about climate at all.

其实，我们甚至根本不必谈论气候。

The problem is this:

问题在于：

we don't have enough climate voters in the United States,

我们在美国没有足够的气候选民，

and that's largely because

主要是因为

millions of environmentalists don't bother to vote.

数百万环保者不愿投票。

For instance, in the state of Georgia,

例如，在佐治亚州，

66 percent of registered voters voted in the 2020 presidential election.

66％ 的注册选民 在 2020 年总统大选中投了票。

But according to voter models, only 58 percent of climate voters voted.

但是根据选民模型， 只有 58％ 的气候选民投了票。

That’s an eight percent undervote from people who care about climate change

就是说，关心气候变化的人群中， 整整少了 8％ 的选票。

in a state where the election was only decided by 0.2 percentage points.

而该州仅以 0.2 个百分点 就能决定选举结果。

Another example.

另一个例子。

In Pennsylvania and Nevada, two crucially important swing states,

在两个至关重要的摇摆州， 宾夕法尼亚州和内华达州，

people who skipped the last midterm election

缺席中期选举的人群中，

were twice as likely to list climate as a top priority

将气候列为当务之急的人可能是

as people who said they were going to vote in that election.

表示将参与那次投票的人的两倍。

In short,

简而言之，

the climate movement isn't voting,

气候运动没有参与投票，

and this has a real impact on the electorate.

这对选区有不可低估的影响。

When we look back at exit polling data from the 2020 presidential election,

当我们查看 2020 年总统大选的 退出民意调查数据时，

ultimately only four percent of voters

只有 4％ 的选民

listed climate change as their top priority.

将气候变化列为当务之急。

2022 midterm polls showed the same thing, four percent.

2022 年的中期民意调查 显示了同一数据，4％。

And when so few voters prioritize climate change,

当极少数选民优先考虑气候变化时，

two really important things start happening.

两个非常关键的问题出现了。

First, it becomes incredibly hard to elect climate leaders.

首先，选举气候领袖变得异常困难。

But second, even when climate leaders do win elections,

其次，即使气候领袖赢得选举，

it isn't like they can then just snap their fingers

他们也无法随心所欲地

and get everything they want done.

达成所有的目标。

No, they still need to pick and choose what to spend their political capital on,

他们仍需选择将政治资本投在哪里，

and they ain't going to spend it

而他们不会把它投在

on the thing that only four percent of voters list as a top priority.

仅有 4％ 的选民 列为当务之急的事情上。

And here's the final reason

下面是最终的原因解释，

why this lack of voter demand for climate leadership

关于为何缺乏选民 对气候领袖的迫切需求这一问题，

is so problematic.

如此棘手。

Politicians know whether you vote or not.

因为政客们知道你是否投了票。

That's right. Who you vote for is secret.

没错，你投票给谁是保密的。

But whether you vote or not,

但是，你是否投了票，

in the United States, that's public record.

在美国，这都是公开的记录。

And with limited time and limited money,

而且，由于时间有限，资金有限，

the most important decision any political campaign makes

任何政治竞选活动做出的最重要决定，

is who to talk to and who to ignore.

都是受众是谁和将谁忽略。

And when you literally have public voter files

当你拥有公开的选民档案，

that tell you by name and street address,

上面记载着姓名和街道地址，

which people have a history of voting in the election you're trying to win,

以及哪些人曾在你试图 获胜的选举中投票，

well, who do you think political campaigns talk to?

那么，政治竞选活动的受众会是谁？

Likely voters.

可能投票的选民。

And who do you think they poll to figure out what issues to prioritize?

他们会跟谁做民意调查 来确定优先考虑哪些问题？

Likely voters.

可能投票的选民。

And the nonvoters? Well, they get ignored.

不投票者呢？ 自然就被置之不理了。

And I know that sounds cynical, but let's be honest.

这听起来很愤世嫉俗，但说实话，

Does Starbucks care about people who don't drink coffee?

星巴克会关心不喝咖啡的人吗？

No.

不会。

Does Toyota market cars to little kids who aren't old enough to drive?

丰田会向小孩子推销汽车吗？

No.

不会。

Companies market their products to people who are likely to buy them,

公司向可能购买其产品的人推销产品，

and politicians market themselves to people who are likely to vote.

而政客则向可能投票的人推销自己。

And they literally know who those voters are

而且他们知道那些选民的

by name and street address

姓名和街道地址，

because it is public record.

因为这是公开的记录。

Alright.

好吧。

So why is this relevant to the climate movement?

为什么这与气候运动有关？

Because remember, when we look at the people who are voting,

因为请记住，当我们观察选民时，

very few of them list climate as their top priority.

发现很少有人将气候列为当务之急。

But when we look at the nonvoters, the people who campaigns typically ignore,

但是，当我们观察 被竞选活动忽略的不投票者时，

well, it turns out that millions of them do care deeply about climate change.

发现原来他们中有无数的人 其实非常关心气候变化。

In fact, at the Environmental Voter Project, the nonprofit I founded,

实际上，我创立的 非营利组织，环保选民计划，

we estimate that as many as eight million climate-concerned Americans

估计有多达 800 万 关注气候的美国人，

skipped the 2020 presidential election.

缺席 2020 年总统大选。

Eight million.

八百万啊。

In an election where the Electoral College was decided

而这次选举中，选举团的组成

by just 44,000 voters in three states.

仅取决于 44,000 名选民， 有 3 个州都是这样。

In short,

简而言之，

the climate movement isn't voting.

气候运动没有参与投票。

And this is having a significant impact.

这正在产生重大影响。

We don't have a political persuasion problem.

我们没有政治说服力问题，

We have a voter turnout problem.

而是遇到了选民投票率问题。

And as frustrating as that is,

尽管这令人沮丧，

I'd like to suggest to you that it's also an enormous opportunity

但我想说，这也是个巨大的机会，

because we live at a moment in time

因为我们生活的这个时代，

where it's become almost impossible

几乎不可能改变

to change people's opinions about anything,

人们对任何事情的看法，

but especially climate change.

尤其是气候变化的看法。

Yet these millions of nonvoting environmentalists,

然而，这数百万不投票的环保者，

they don't need their opinions changed.

他们不需要改变自己的看法，

They just need their behavior nudged, so they start voting.

只需要改进自己的行为，开始投票。

And I won't claim that's easy. Of course it's not easy.

我不会说这很容易，当然不会容易。

But it is easier.

不过现在容易些了，

And it is also testable.

而且，其可行性也是可测试的。

Because the existence of public voter files

因为公共选民档案的存在，

means that you can run messaging experiments,

意味着你可以进行短信传递实验，

and then after the election,

然后在选举之后，

look up and see which ones actually got environmentalists to start voting.

可以查看哪些方式 真正让环保者开始投票。

And so that's the focus of our work

这就是我们环保选民计划

at the Environmental Voter Project.

工作的重点。

We focus on identifying millions of nonvoting environmentalists,

我们专注于识别 数百万不投票的环保者，

and then using nonpartisan messaging to turn them into new voters,

然后使用无党派短信 将他们转变为新的选民，

and eventually consistent voters.

并最终成为稳定的选民。

It's a three-step process.

这个过程有三个步骤。

First, we need to find these nonvoting environmentalists.

首先，我们要找到 这些不投票的环保者。

Now obviously, we can't interview every single American,

很明显，我们无法采访每个人，

but we can poll huge numbers of people,

但可以对大量的人进行民意调查，

isolate the ones who list climate as their top priority,

挑出将气候列为当务之急的人，

and then build highly accurate models to find other people like them.

然后建立高度准确的模型 来寻找其他类似他们的人。

Step two, we need to get them to start voting.

第二步，我们要让他们开始投票。

And to do that, behavioral science tells us

要做到这点，行为科学告诉我们，

the best way to get an environmentalist to vote

让环保者投票的最佳方法，

is not to talk about climate change.

是不要谈论气候变化。

In fact, we shouldn't even try to convince them

我们甚至不应该试图说服他们

of the importance of voting.

相信投票的重要性。

Instead, we should treat them as social animals

相反，应该将他们当作社交动物，

who are trying to fit into societal norms,

正努力适应社会规范；

rather than as rational animals

而不是理性动物，

who need to be convinced of the value of their one vote.

需要被灌输那一票的价值。

And so we use techniques like FOMO, fear of missing out,

因此，我们使用诸如 FOMO（害怕错过机会）等技巧，

telling environmentalists that each year more and more of their peers are voting,

告诉环保者每年都有 越来越多的同行投票，

so don't be left behind.

所以不要被落下。

Or we'll knock on their door, ask if they intend to vote.

或者我们会上门 问他们是否打算投票。

Most people will be embarrassed and they'll say yes,

多数人会感到尴尬 ，会说“是”，

and then we'll follow up with them right before the election,

然后我们会在选举前跟进他们，

remind them of that pledge,

提醒他们记住承诺，

and equate the act of voting

并将投票行动等同于

with whether they're an honest person who keeps their promises or not.

他们是否是信守诺言的诚实人。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

We will even mail people copies of their personal voting histories.

我们甚至会给人邮寄 其投票历史的副本。

(Audience) Oh, really?

（观众）哦，真的吗？

NS: Yeah. Pretty aggressive, huh?

NS：是的。很咄咄逼人，对吧？

Well, so is the climate crisis.

但气候危机也是迫在眉睫。

And this stuff works.

而且，这么做确实有效。

These norm-based messages and other strategies

这些基于社会规范的短信和其他策略

have increased turnout among our target voters

提高了我们的目标选民的投票率，

by as much as 1.8 percentage points in general elections,

在普选中提高了多达 1.8%，

3.6 percentage points in primaries

在初选中 3.6%，

and 5.7 percentage points in local elections.

在地方选举中 5.7%。

And those are huge numbers in this business.

在选举中，这些数字是巨大的，

I mean, one or two percent is everything in politics.

百分之一、二就能决定政治中的一切。

And the final step is to build long-term voting habits.

最后一步是养成长期投票习惯。

And to do that, you can't just talk to these environmentalists

要做到这点，你不能 每两年才与这些环保者交谈一次，

once every two years

when there's a big federal election going on.

不能只在联邦大选时才做。

No, we are active in over 250 elections each year,

我们每年积极参与 250 多次的

federal, state and local.

联邦、州或地方选举。

Because, yes, voting can become habitual.

因为，投票是可以成为一种习惯的。

And remember those public voter files?

还记得那些公开的选民档案吗？

Well, they're not static.

它们不是一成不变的。

Once we get an environmentalist to vote,

一旦我们让一位环保者开始投票，

it almost immediately becomes public record,

它几乎即刻成为公开记录，

and then dozens of campaigns race to start talking to that environmentalist

然后就有数十个竞选活动 竞相与该环保人士交谈，

because they're now a voter.

因为他们现在是选民了。

And they start getting polled, too, to figure out what issues they care about.

他们也开始受到民意调查， 以找出他们关心的问题。

Ultimately, this is how we build an unstoppable bloc of climate voters

归根结底，我们就是这样来建立 一个不可阻挡的气候选民群体，

that can move policymaking across the political spectrum.

他们能在各个政治领域推动决策。

Because even in this hyperpartisan time,

因为即使在这超级党派化的时代，

there is still one thing that unites all Democrats and Republicans.

仍有一件事可以团结 所有民主党和共和党人，

And that is, boy, do they all like winning elections.

伙计，他们都想赢得选举吧？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I mean, nothing motivates a politician more

没有什么更能激励政客的了，

than the prospect of winning or losing an election.

除了选举获胜或失败的可能性。

So they always go where the voters are.

因此，他们总是去选民所在的地方。

It's just the brutal arithmetic of how democracy works.

这就是民主运作方式的残酷演算。

Either you go where the votes are or you don't get to be a politician.

要么你去选票所在的地方， 要么你就成不了政客。

So now it's incumbent upon us in the climate movement

因此，在气候运动中，我们有责任

to build this unstoppable bloc of climate voters.

建立这个不可阻挡的气候选民群体。

And it's increasingly clear that we can do so

而且，日益明显的是， 我们可以做到这点，

without having to convince millions of people

即使不去说服数百万的人

to change their minds about climate change.

改变对气候变化的看法。

In fact, we may not even need to talk about climate at all.

实际上，我们甚至根本不用谈论气候。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）