How To Spot Authoritarianism — and Choose Democracy | Ian Bassin | TED

翻译人员: Lydia Guan 校对人员: Bruce Wang

So at a different time of day,

在某一天中的另一个时间，

late on the night before the American presidential inauguration 2009,

就是2009年美国总统就职典礼前的深夜，

I received an urgent message to go pick up a package

我收到一条紧急信息，让我前往华盛顿特区

at a random address in Washington, DC.

某个随机地址那里，取一个包裹。

I was wearing a tuxedo.

我当时穿着燕尾服。

I was at the inaugural ball.

我正在参加就职典礼的宴会。

The next day, I was supposed to enter the White House

第二天，我本应该以新总统律师的身份

as a lawyer for the new president,

踏入白宫，

but I slipped out of the ball

但我溜出了宴会

and I ran in the rain to the designated address

在雨中跑到了指定地点，

where the doorman of the building handed me a plastic grocery bag

那座大楼的门卫递给我一个塑料购物袋

bursting at the seams with three thick binders.

装着三本厚到装订线裂开的活页夹。

My name was written on a Post-it note stuck to the back.

我的名字就写在背面的便利贴上。

"Jason Bourne," it said.

上面写着： “杰森·伯恩（Jason Bourne），谍影重重。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

No.

不是真的。

But I was supposed to bring the binders with me into the White House the next day.

但是第二天我本该把活页夹带到白宫的。

For the next three years in my service in the White House counsel's office,

在我接下来任职白宫顾问的三年里，

those binders would become my Bible.

这些活页夹将成为我的圣经。

They had been left for me by a lawyer from a previous White House,

他们是前白宫的一位律师留给我的，

and they contained in them memos dating to the Eisenhower era

里面有追溯到艾森豪威尔时代的备忘录

that White House chiefs of staff and counsel had sent

是白宫办公厅主任们和顾问

to executive branch officials,

写给行政部门官员的，

explaining what they could do and what they were not allowed to do

解释了他们在履行公务时什么可以做

in the performance of their duties.

什么不可以做。

And if White House staff had questions about those things,

如果白宫工作人员对那些事情有疑问，

I'd just consult the binders,

我就去查阅活页夹，

and if they didn't contain the answer,

如果里面没有答案，

I'd call the lawyer who did my job for President Bush,

我会打电话给在布什总统任内 做我这个岗位的律师，

and if he didn't know,

如果他也不知道，

we'd call the lawyer who did it for President Clinton.

我们就给克林顿总统任内 做这个岗位的律师打电话。

It didn't matter whether you were working for a Democrat or a Republican.

无论你是为民主党还是共和党工作， 都关系不大。

The rules were consistent from administration to administration.

各个行政部门的规则是一样的。

And you learn quickly in doing this work

在接手这份工作后，你会很快了解到，

that most of those rules are not legally binding.

其中大多数规则不具有法律约束力。

They're just traditions, customs,

它们只是约定俗成，

what we've all come to call norms.

我们都称之为规范。

Which meant they were a choice.

这意味着他们是一个选择。

You can choose to follow them, or you could choose not to follow them.

你可以选择照着做， 也可以选择不照着做。

And they contain things like rules prohibiting White House staff

它们还包含诸如禁止白宫工作人员

from calling the Department of Justice

致电司法部

and telling them who to prosecute, who to investigate,

并告诉他们该起诉谁、调查谁，

because in a liberal democracy,

因为在一个自由民主国家，

those decisions are supposed to be made independently of politics.

这些决定本应独立于政治做考量。

So after the 2016 American presidential election,

因此，在2016年美国总统大选之后，

my fellow council alumni and I began to grow concerned.

我和我的理事会校友们开始越发担忧。

What would happen if a leader chose not to follow those rules?

如果领导者选择不遵守这些规则，会发生什么？

What would happen if a leader organized a political movement

如果领导人组织了一场反对他们的政治运动

in opposition to them?

会发生什么？

Well, we didn't really need to wonder about that

好吧，我们都不需要凭空想象，

because leaders and movements like that

因为在21世纪，

have been rising across the world in the 21st century.

像这样的领导人和运动在全球范围内越来越多了。

These movements seek to replace liberal democracy

这些运动试图去替代自由民主

with more authoritarian forms of government.

以更独裁政府的形式。

And so my fellow council alumni and I

因此，我和我的理事会校友们

decided to launch which was a modest effort at first

决定行动起来，起初只是个小小的努力，

to try to apply what we'd learned from those binders

试图运用我们从活页夹里学到的东西

to prevent that from happening in the United States.

来防止那些情况在美国发生。

We called our organization Protect Democracy,

我们称我们的组织为 “保护民主（Protect Democracy）”，

but as the threat has grown, so have our efforts.

但随着危机的增长，我们的努力也随之增长。

And so I want to take some time today

因此，我今天想花点时间

to describe the specific nature of the threat

来描述危机的具体性质

and some choices we all can make to defeat it.

以及我们可以作出哪些选择以打败危机。

So the first thing to understand is how these modern authoritarian movements

首先要明白一点，这些现代独裁运动

dismantle democracies.

是如何摧毁民主的。

Because it's not like it was in the past.

因为它跟过去不一样了。

These days, typically, democracy doesn't die with a loud explosion

如今，民主通常不会因为巨大的爆炸

and tanks rolling through the town square.

和坦克碾上城市广场而消亡。

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is the exception.

俄罗斯入侵乌克兰是个例外。

More often in the 21st century,

更多出现在21世纪的是，

these authoritarian movements work like Trojan horses.

这些独裁运动像特洛伊木马一样操作。

Typically, their leader comes to power through an election,

通常，他们的领导人通过选举上台，

and once inside, dismantles the system from within.

一旦进入政权， 就会从内部瓦解制度。

And they have a playbook for doing so.

而且他们有一份战术手册照着做。

The authoritarian playbook.

独裁战术手册。

And it's pretty consistent from Venezuela to Hungary, Turkey to Brazil.

相同的套路，从委内瑞拉到匈牙利， 从土耳其到巴西。

It contains seven steps. OK?

它包含七个步骤。好吧？

So first, they politicize independent institutions,

那么，第一，它们将独立机构政治化，

like the civil service, law enforcement and eventually the military.

像是公共服务、执法部门，最后是军队。

Second, they spread disinformation, including from the government.

第二，他们散布虚假信息， 包括来自政府的虚假信息。

Third, they aggrandize executive power and undermine checks and balances.

第三，它们强化行政权力，破坏制衡。

Fourth, they quash dissent,

第四，他们镇压异议，

from limiting what can be said and taught and read

从限制可以说、教和读的内容

to using the regulatory state to punish critics.

到利用国家监管去惩罚批评家。

Fifth, they scapegoat and delegitimize vulnerable groups.

第五，他们把弱势群体当作替罪羊 并剥夺其合法性。

This has been the tyrants' favorite tool since antiquity,

自古以来，这一直是暴君最喜欢的手段，

because if you can pit people against each other on the basis of race,

因为如果你能基于种族、

religion or sexual orientation,

宗教或性取向让人们互相对抗，

it's easier to pick their pockets of money and power.

就能更容易窃取人们的财富和权利。

Six, they corrupt elections.

第六，他们败坏了选举制度。

And finally, they incite violence.

以及最后，他们煽动暴力。

And we have seen all of these play out

而我们已经看到了所有这些的演变

in the United States in recent years.

近年来在美国陆续出现。

And there's a reason why this playbook can succeed.

这个战术手册能够成功是有原因的。

It's not that people openly support authoritarianism,

并不是说人们公开支持威权主义，

or even secretly favor it.

或者暗地里为威权主义叫好。

But in a time of rapid change and uncertainty,

而是，在瞬息万变和变幻莫测的时代，

the time when so many of us feel anxiety about the future,

当我们中的许多人对未来感到焦虑时，

at a time when our democracy and our politics seem so broken

当我们的民主和政治似乎支离破碎

and so unable to solve our problems,

无力解决我们的问题时，

it can be tempting to think

人们可能很容易被诱导认为

the solution is just to give someone a little bit more power.

解决的办法就是赋予某人更多的权力。

"I alone can fix it,"

“我一个人就能解决这一切。”

we're told in times like these.

我们时不时听到这些说辞。

And the truth is, an all-powerful leader can cut through the morass.

事实是，一个大权在握的领导者能打破困境。

They don't need to negotiate legislation or overcome filibusters,

他们不需要谈判立法或克服阻挠，

or defend their policies in court.

也不需要在法庭上为自己的政策辩护。

They can just do it.

他们能直接执行起来。

Mandate that more housing be built.

授权建造更多住房。

That we train enough doctors.

授权训练足够多的医生。

That we make our system ruthlessly efficient.

授权让我们的系统不留情面地高效运作。

Maybe discard people who are unproductive.

或许就此舍弃那些没有生产力的人。

Or who have disabilities.

或者残疾人。

Or who are just old.

或者老年人。

That we confiscate people's property

授权我们没收他人财产

to enrich and empower the leader and his allies.

让领导人和他的盟友更有钱，更有权。

That we imprison anyone who stands in the way.

授权我们监禁任何挡路的人。

Or who speaks out.

或者敢于发声的人。

Or questions the leader at all.

或者从头到尾质疑领袖的人。

Because that is how it always goes.

因为一直都是这么做的。

Just ask the young person in Nicaragua

只要问问那个尼加拉瓜的年轻人

whose father was disappeared for saying the wrong thing.

他的父亲发表异见，然后就失踪了。

Or the student in Turkey who was arrested

或者是那个被捕的土耳其学生

for attending a banned art exhibit,

因为他参加了一个被禁的艺术展，

or the businessman in Russia whose company was seized

或者是那个生意被查封的俄罗斯商人，

to buy loyalty from an oligarch.

因为他和寡头交易。

Or the gentleman I met last night

或者是我昨晚遇到的一位男士，

who spent time in a maximum security prison

他在最高戒备的监狱里度过了一段时间，

merely for calling out for freedom and democracy in Zimbabwe.

只是因为他在津巴布韦呼吁自由和民主。

Yeah, I know, there are some Americans who say,

是的，我知道，有些美国人会说：

"But that can't happen here."

“但那不可能在我们这里发生。”

That's what all those people thought.

他们全都是这么想的。

The truth is the only way it can happen here

事实是，这事在这里发生的唯一机会

is if we think that it can't.

就是我们以为它绝不会发生。

All right. That's pretty dark.

好吧。有点厚黑学了。

Don't worry, it's OK,

别担心，这不要紧，

because we still have the time and the power

因为我们还有时间和力量

to prevent that playbook from succeeding.

来阻止这个战术手册的实现。

How?

怎么做呢？

By exercising the one thing that democracies guarantee

通过行使一个东西，让民主制

that autocracies take away:

确保独裁无法落地生根：

the power to choose.

这个东西就是，选择的权利。

Because underneath it all,

因为深藏在一切之下的，

democracy lives or dies based on choices, right?

是民主的生死取决于选择，对吧？

In big moments like elections, sure,

总统选举等重大时刻，肯定算一种，

but also the countless choices that citizens make every day

但也包括公民以一个民主参与者的身份

as participants in a democracy.

每天做出的无数选择。

That's what I learned from those binders, right?

这就是我从那些活页夹中学到的，好吧？

Choices made in the spotlight,

有人关注时做出的选择，

choices made when no one is looking,

没人关注时做出的选择，

they add up, and they either fortify democracy or they chip it away.

它们累积起来，要么巩固民主，要么削弱民主。

So how are we doing on this front?

那么我们在这方面做得怎么样呢？

Well, we have made some good choices that are cause for hope,

我们曾经做过一些不错的选择带来新希望，

and some not so good ones that are reasons for real concern.

还有一些不太好的选择，引起真切的忧思。

And so I want to give an example of a democracy-saving choice,

因此，我想举一个选择拯救民主的例子，

an example of a democracy-destroying choice,

一个选择破坏民主的例子，

and we'll end on choices we all can make to be the difference.

然后总结我们能做哪些选择让结局不一样。

So first, the democracy-saving choice.

第一个，选择拯救民主的例子。

Ruby Freeman and her daughter Shaye Moss

露比·弗里曼（Ruby Freeman） 和她的女儿沙耶·莫斯（Shaye Moss）

stepped up to serve as election workers during the pandemic

在疫情期间自告奋勇担任选举工作人员，

to help their fellow citizens in the state of Georgia vote in 2020,

在2020年大选的投票工作中， 对佐治亚州的同胞们施以援手，

and they did their jobs with honor and integrity,

他们自豪且正直地履行他们的职责，

never imagining what was going to happen next.

从未想过接下来会发生什么。

An autocrat and his allies, desperate to hold on to power,

一位迫切希望掌权的独裁者和他的盟友，

falsely accused them of stealing the election from him.

不正当地指控她们从他手中窃取了选举。

Their lives were turned upside down.

她们的生活一下子被颠覆了。

They became the subjects of vile, unrelenting,

她们成为了攻击目标，遭受肮脏的、

unthinkable intimidation and harassment.

持续的、无法想象的恐吓和骚扰。

They received racist death threats.

她们收到了种族主义的死亡威胁。

Ruby was forced to flee her home on the advice of the FBI

露比在联邦调查局建议下被迫离开家园

for her own safety.

为了保障自己的安全。

After what happened to them, it would have been entirely understandable

要是她们决定，在经历那些风波之后，

if they had decided to slink off into their private, quiet lives.

低调回归私密安静的生活，这完全可以理解。

And had they chosen to do that,

而如果她们真的选择那样做，

we would have moved that much further away from protecting democracy.

我们就会离保护民主越来越远。

But they made a different choice.

但是她们做出了不一样的选择。

They chose to stand up.

她们选择站起来。

Represented by our organization,

由我们组织代表她们，

they brought multiple lawsuits against the people

针对诽谤她们的个人和组织，

and organizations who defamed them,

提起了多项诉讼，

depriving them of their reputations and their safety.

控诉剥夺了她们的名誉权和人身安全。

They testified before Congress

她们在国会作证说，

about how the former president and his allies,

这位前总统及其盟友，

rather than protecting them as public servants and citizens,

非但没有将她们作为人民公仆和公民来保护，

targeted them, putting their lives in danger.

反而攻击她们，置她们的生命于险境。

And because they chose to invoke our laws and our courts

而且，由于她们选择援引我们的法律、法院

and our institutions in democracy's defense,

和我们民主捍卫的机构，

they are establishing a deterrent against anyone doing to others

她们建立起有效的震慑，

what has been done to them.

对抗那些在他人身上重复同样做法的施害者。

But not everyone is making such good choices.

但是，并不是每个人都做着这样的正确选择。

And most worryingly, people with far more institutional power than Ruby and Shaye

最令人担忧的是，露比和沙耶的选择有多有益，

are making choices that are as bad for democracy

凌驾于露比和沙耶之上的掌权者

as Ruby's and Shaye's were good.

做的选择就对民主有多不利。

So, a brief lesson from history.

一段从历史中吸取的简短教训。

Between World War I and World War II,

在一战结束到二战开始前的这段时间里，

far right authoritarian parties were rising across Europe.

极右翼专制政党在欧洲各地崛起。

In Belgium, in Finland,

在比利时，在芬兰，

the mainstream center right parties saw those on the right flank

主流中右翼政党认为右翼阵营的本质

for what they were,

是对民主制度根本基础的

threats to the very foundations of their democratic systems.

一种威胁。

And so they did the hard thing.

所以他们选择了一条艰难的道路。

They chose to unite

他们选择联手

with their traditional opponents on the left

左翼阵营的老对手，

to block the autocrats from power.

阻止独裁者上台。

In Italy and Germany,

在意大利和德国，

the mainstream center right parties made a different choice.

主流中的右翼政党做出了不同的选择。

They calculated that they could ride the energy

他们计算过，他们可以借着

of those on their far right to power,

极右翼势力上台的东风，

and then, once there, sideline the extremist leaders.

等掌权后，边缘化极端主义的领导人。

And we know how tragically that turned out.

然后我们知道了结果有多悲惨。

Well, in recent years, too many on America's center right

近年来，太多的美国中右翼人士

have made a similar calculation,

做出了类似的计算，

that they, too, can ride the energy on the extremist right to power,

他们也可以借着极端主义势力上台的东风掌权，

and then sideline the extremist leader.

然后将极端主义领导人边缘化。

They still have time to make a different choice,

他们还有时间做出不同的选择，

because protecting democracy

因为保护民主

requires people who disagree about politics and policy

需要在政治和政策上有异议的人民

to put those differences aside

在民主自治的根本基础陷入险境的时候，

when the very foundations of self-government itself are at risk.

将分歧放在一边。

Now, the choice that Ruby and Shaye made,

现在，露比和沙耶所做的选择，

and the choice too many center right electives have made,

以及过多的 中右翼民选做过的选择，

are representative of thousands of similar choices that are being made

代表着支持民主和反民主双方阵营

on each side of the pro- and anti-democracy ledger.

正在做出的千万个类似的选择。

Add it all up, you basically get a draw

总而言之，你基本上能看到

in which our democracy is teetering on the edge.

我们的民主正处于摇摇欲坠的边缘。

But therein lies our opportunity to tip the balance.

但这也是我们打破平衡的机遇。

Because we all have choices to make as well.

因为我们每个人都需要做选择。

Yes, to vote. And we must do that.

对，去投票。而且我们必须去。

But just as importantly,

但同样重要的是，

choices about how we relate to one another as citizens.

作为公民，我们选择怎么样联结其他人。

I know it may seem like a quaint notion,

我知道这看起来像是一个过时的概念，

but how we act towards one another is fundamental to democracy.

但是我们如何彼此相待才是民主的基础。

These are the habits of the heart that Alexis de Tocqueville credited

亚历克西斯·德·托克维尔 （Alexis de Tocqueville）认为

as being responsible for the maintenance

这些由内心出发的习惯

of a democratic republic in the United States.

是维护美国民主共和的责因。

Because how our elected officials behave and how our government functions

因为我们如何行使公民权，

is almost always downstream of how we act as citizens.

是我们民选官员如何表现 和我们政府如何运作的源头。

If we meet our neighbors' differences with suspicion and fear and hostility,

如果我们用怀疑、恐惧和敌意来应对友邻的分歧，

our elected officials are likely to do the same,

我们的民选官员有可能做出同样的事，

and authoritarians thrive on that sort of division and hatred.

威权主义就可以在这样的分裂和仇恨中成长。

Autocrats want to feed our fears

独裁者想给我们带来恐惧，

because when we're afraid,

因为当我们恐慌的时候，

we're more likely to see a strong man as a necessary means of protection.

我们更有可能将强人视为必要的保护措施。

But if we make a different choice,

但是，如果我们做出一个不同的选择，

we choose to meet our neighbors' differences as opportunities

我们选择满足友邻的差异，以此作为契机，

for curiosity and for connection,

去探索和联络，

our elected officials will eventually follow suit as well.

我们的民选官员最终也会效仿。

And then we put democracy on home court advantage

然后我们将民主放到

against authoritarianism.

对抗威权主义的主场优势。

Right now, kind of acting too much out of fear, right?

现在，有点出于恐惧而表现得太过分了，对吧？

Fear our democracy is dying,

担心我们的民主正在消亡，

and that's causing us to be hostile to one another.

那也会导致我们彼此敌对。

And I will admit, I am guilty of this, too, right?

而我承认，在这点上我是有罪的，好吧？

So I want to share something I've been reflecting on

我想分享一些我一直在反思的事情

that is helping me reorient

它可以帮助我重新调整

how I think about and approach this moment.

思考和面对这一刻的方式。

It's a verse from a Leonard Cohen song, appropriately titled "Democracy,"

莱昂纳德·科恩（Leonard Cohen）有一首歌， 《民主（Democracy）》

and it goes like this.

名字挺贴切，其中的一节是这样唱的。

"It's coming to America first,

“一开始它正到达美国，

the cradle of the best and of the worst.

最好的和最坏的摇篮。

It's here we got the range and the machinery for change.

在这里，我们有了变革的范围和机制。

It's here we got the spiritual thirst.

正是在这里，我们有了精神上的渴望。

It's here the family's broken

在这里，家庭破裂，

and it's here the lonely say

在这里，孤独者说，

that the heart has got to open in a fundamental way:

必须从根本上敞开心灵：

democracy is coming to the USA."

民主正到达美国。”

You know,

你知道，

we tend to think of the moment we're in in negative terms,

我们倾向于将我们处于负面状态的那一刻

as a dark and scary time, pretending the end of democracy.

视为一个黑暗而可怕的时刻，假装成民主的终结。

But in our long journey as a nation in the world,

但是，在我们作为一个国家的漫长旅程中，

in our long quest to achieve the thing we’ve aspired to but never had --

在我们长期追寻实现我们向往 但从未实现过的目标的过程中——

a truly inclusive, multiracial, multiethnic, multireligious democracy --

一个真正包容的、多种族的、多 民族的、多宗教的民主——

each major advance towards that goal

每一个迈向目标的重要进展

has been preceded by a crucible of crises and conflict.

都经历了危机和冲突的严峻考验。

When brave Black Americans marched across the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma

当勇敢的美国黑人游行 穿过位于塞尔玛（Selma）的

to secure the right to vote,

埃德蒙·佩特斯大桥（Edmund Pettus Bridge） 以获得投票权时，

there's no downplaying the pain and suffering,

痛苦受难，不曾淡化，

cracked skulls that they endured,

粉身碎骨，咬牙承受，

but they led our nation to the fuller democracy on the other side.

但另一边，他们带领我们的国家 走向了更全面的民主。

I think we're living through a similar moment.

我认为我们正在经历一个差不多的时刻。

The last gasp of an old order, making its final stand against the future.

旧有秩序的最后一口气，强撑着对抗未来。

And if we do as the lyrics suggest,

而如果我们按照歌词所提示的去做，

if we open our hearts in a fundamental way to each other,

如果我们从根本上向彼此坦诚心扉，

on the other side of this crisis,

在这场危机的另一面，

democracy, true democracy,

民主，真正的民主，

I am confident is coming

正到达美国，

to the USA.

我深信。

Those binders that I inherited that night in 2009,

我在2009年那天晚上继承的那些活页夹

they never made it past that administration.

完全没法在那届任期之后流传下来。

When the new administration came into office,

当新政府上任时，

there was no one for me to give them to

我找不到任何人传承那些活页夹

who would honor them like so many had before.

没有人，像无数前辈那样，珍视那些活页夹。

So I'm giving them to you.

所以我现在把活页夹交给你们。

To all of us.

给我们所有人。

If our experiment in self-government is to continue,

如果我们独立自主的摸索要继续下去，

we are the ones who are going to choose to protect it.

我们就要选择保护它。

We.

我们。

The people.

人民。

We have this choice because that's what democracy protects.

我们有这样的选择，因为那是民主所保护的。

Democracy is about having choices.

民主就是赋予选择的权利。

Authoritarianism is about not having them.

威权主义就是去掉选择权。

Make the wrong one and we can absolutely lose that freedom.

选错的话，我们会彻底失去那个自由。

But ultimately the final choice will be ours.

但终究，最终的选择在我们的手上。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）