Can Math Help Repair Democracy? | Sam Wang | TED

翻译人员: Alexis Young 校对人员: Manlin Fang

Computer simulations are everywhere.

计算机仿真无处不在。

If you navigated here today or you looked at a weather report,

如果你今天导航到这里， 或查看了天气预报，

then you used simulations.

那么你就使用了模拟技术。

A simulation can game through thousands or even millions of possibilities.

模拟可以通过成千上万 甚至数百万种可能性来进行推演。

What if computer simulations could help us out

如果计算机仿真能帮助我们解决

of one of the most pressing problems of our time:

当前最紧迫的问题呢：

a rickety democracy, here in the United States

摇摇欲坠的民主制度，无论是在美国

or around the world?

还是世界上的其他国家？

I'm here to argue today

我今天在此想说明，

that simulations can help us preserve democracy in a time of crisis,

模拟可以帮助我们保护民主制度， 不管是在危机时刻

in a time of rapid change,

或在快速变化的时代，

both technological and demographic and indeed climate change,

无论是技术、人口还是气候变迁 以及紧张局势，

and tension, again in the US and around the world.

这些挑战存在于美国和全球各地。

I'm a computational neuroscientist,

我是一名计算神经科学家，

and I'm used to handling complex data.

习惯于处理复杂的数据。

My students and I study the brain, a highly complex object.

我的学生和我研究的是大脑， 这是一个极其复杂的对象。

We take data and we make it simpler in order to understand it.

我们收集数据、简化数据， 以便理解它。

We also build models to help understand how a brain might react.

我们也建立模型来帮助我们 理解大脑可能如何反应。

And this kind of understanding, I argue,

而我认为，这种理解

is useful in understanding democracy itself.

同样适用于理解民主。

Imagine neurons, which I do a fair bit.

拿神经元来说，这方面我做得很多。

When neurons fire together in synchrony,

当神经元同步放电时，

and they fire impulses together,

也就是一起发射脉冲时，

that can lead to a seizure.

可能会引发癫痫。

Now imagine people doing something together.

现在，想象人们也同步行动。

When people start believing something in unison or acting in unison,

当人们开始一致地相信某些事情 或一致行动时，

that can lead to political collapse, and it can lead to unrest,

这可能会导致政治崩溃，

and it can even lead to insurrection.

甚至引发暴动和叛乱。

Computation and mathematical analysis

计算和数学分析

can help explain strange phenomena like this,

可以帮助我们解释这些奇异现象，

which are unfamiliar to most of us in our lifetimes.

这些现象对大多数人来说 可能并不熟悉。

They can not only help explain

这些工具不仅可以解释，

but they can also help prevent such events from happening

还可以帮助防止此类事件发生，

and maybe even help make repairs to democracy.

甚至可能帮助修复民主，

And finally, and this is important,

最后，很重要的，

avoid accidentally causing a problem or making things worse.

还可以避免无意中造成新的问题 或使情况恶化。

I would argue, too,

我还认为，

that democracy ought to have several fundamental functions.

民主应该具备几个基本功能。

It should be representative of all of us.

它应该能代表我们所有人，

It should be responsive to us.

能对我们做出回应。

If we change our minds, we should be able to get rid of the people

如果我们改变了想法，

应该要能够让不胜任的代表下台。

who we think have not been doing a good job.

And finally, democracy should be deliberative.

最后，民主应该具备协商性。

We should elect people who represent us,

我们应该选举那些代表我们的人，

who deliberate with one another and help solve our problems.

他们应该互相协商， 并帮助解决我们的问题。

But there's a paradox in our democracy as it stands today.

但当今的民主制度存在一个矛盾。

And let me explain to you exactly how that paradox might cause a problem.

我来解释一下这个矛盾 如何造成问题。

If you look at recent surveys,

如果你看最近的调查，

many of us are dissatisfied with politics.

许多人对政治感到不满。

There are more independents

无党派选民

than either Democrats or Republicans.

比民主党或共和党的选民更多。

That started two decades ago.

这是从二十年前开始的趋势。

Over the last few years,

过去几年至今，

there are now nearly half of voters in the United States

有接近一半的美国选民

who call themselves independents.

自称是无党派人士，

That's more than Democrats and Republicans combined.

这比民主党和共和党党员数量还多。

But yet we're also polarized.

我们还处于两极化状态。

Those independents also have highly reliable voting habits,

这些无党派人士也具有 高度稳定的投票习惯，

voting with either major political party most of the time.

大多数时候他们会支持 其中一个主要政党。

So how can that be?

这是怎么回事？

Let me show you a simple simulation

我来为你们展示一个简单的模拟，

that illustrates how both of those things can be true:

说明这两个现象如何同时存在：

无党派人士感到不满， 却又存在党派两极化。

independents who are disaffected and yet partisan polarization.

And this helps to illustrate

这帮助说明了在当前条件下，

how there could be a danger to our system under current conditions.

我们的体制可能面临的危险。

In this simulation,

在此模拟中，

look at this axis from left to right.

请看从左到右的这个轴线。

This is an axis that's meant to represent liberals and conservatives

这个轴线从左边到右边代表的是的

from left to right.

自由派和保守派。

And you can see here voters,

从这里可以看到选民，

或者从政者堆栈在 两座巨大的山峰上。

or if you can imagine, politicians, piled up in two great mountains.

And these two great mountains are separated from each other.

而这两座山峰彼此分离，

Very little overlap in issues or in cultural stances.

无论是在议题还是在文化立场上 都很少有重迭之处。

There's something different about these two mountains.

这两座山峰之间存在差异。

But now take a closer look.

但是现在仔细看一下。

This is one dimension that I've shown you,

我刚才展示的是一个视角，

a single dimension from left to right.

从左到右的单一视角。

But look, here's a third mountain hidden.

但请注意，这里隐藏着第三座山峰，

And that's because there's more dimensionality to voters

这是因为选民其实比我们近年来

than just the single axis

习惯的单一轴线

that we've gotten used to in the last few years.

更多元化。

事实上，这第三座山峰的选民 有不同的立场，

This third mountain of voters, in fact, has different stances,

but yet they're forced to choose.

但他们被迫做出选择。

They have to pick whichever major mountain is next to them,

他们必须选择靠近他们的 那座主要山峰，

而哪座山峰更接近他们， 他们就选择那一座。

and whichever mountain is closer, they pick.

这就是我们忠诚的原因。

And that's why we're loyal.

And when we're forced to choose between these two major mountains,

当我们被迫在这两座 主要山峰之间做出选择时，

迫使我们只能在那单轴在线行动。

we're all forced to act as if we're on that single dimension.

Mathematical analysis has shown that one-dimensional dynamics,

数学分析显示，一元动力学，

as you go along a single dimension, can lead to instability.

也就是在单一轴在线活动， 会导致不稳定。

And that's important.

而这点很重要。

To get into the math a little bit, imagine animals.

稍微提一下数学，想象一下动物。

If animals all start moving in one direction,

如果动物都朝同一方向移动，

then that puts them at risk of getting into a stampede.

那么它们有可能发生踩踏事件。

Now imagine people.

现在想象如果是人的话，

If we all start doing the same thing,

如果我们所有人都开始做同样的事情，

if we all start behaving in unison, if enough of us do that,

如果我们都一致行动， 如果人数够多，

that can cause a political stampede.

就可能会引起政治踩踏。

And a political stampede can lead to the election of extreme leaders,

而政治踩踏可能导致极端领袖当选，

and it can lead to a collapse of democracy and maybe the loss of democracy

甚至导致民主崩溃，

可能还会导致民主 和选举制度在未来消失。

and future elections.

Can we prevent this?

我们能防止这一切吗？

Well, I should say that reformers have come up with lots of ideas.

我想说，改革者提出了很多想法。

如果你关注这个领域，

And if you've been paying attention to this space,

你可能听说过其中一些想法。

you've heard about some of these ideas.

但问题是，我们没有 那么多时间继续蹉跎。

But the problem is that we do not have the luxury of time.

It's an unstable time.

这是一个不稳定的时代。

And I would say that it would be a good idea for us

我认为，我们应该在未来几年内

to make some of these repairs in the next few years.

实施一些修补措施。

And we have to get it right maybe the first time.

我们可能需要在 第一次尝试时就做对，

Simulation can help.

此时模拟就派上用场了。

Like navigation on a smartphone,

就像智能手机导航一样，

computation can help us identify paths that can move us forward reliably

计算技术可以帮助我们 确定可靠的前进路径，

and without making too many missteps.

并减少犯错的机会。

Now I’ve told you about independents.

刚才我讲了无党派选民，

Now I want to tell you about some of the solutions.

现在我要谈一些解决方案。

Now you might imagine that a good idea in such polarized circumstances

你可能会认为，在此两极化情况下，

is to form a third party.

形成第三个政党是个好主意。

Sounds good, right?

听起来不错，对吗？

But in fact, if we do that before attempting other reforms,

但事实上，如果在尝试 其他改革之前这么做，

that can backfire.

可能会适得其反。

And I'd like to show you a simulation that proves the point.

我想展示一个模拟来证明这一点。

Here's a simulation based on analysis

这是一个基于我与合作伙伴们

that my collaborators and I have undertaken.

分析结果的模拟，

This is now based on results from analyzing hundreds of elections.

根据对数百场选举的分析结果。

And we found that voters indeed do act

我们发现选民的行为

as if they are piled up into two great mountains.

确实就像是他们被分成两座大山峰。

In this case, I’ve shown the blues on the left

在这种情况下，我将蓝方放在左侧，

and the reds on the right.

红方放在右侧。

And in this simulation, they vote under the normal rule

在这个模拟中，他们根据 我们已经习惯的规则，

that we’ve become used to, which is called first-past-the-post.

也就是所谓的「先过半数者为胜」。

And in this simulation I've set up conditions

在这个模拟中，我设置了条件，

so that out of 10,000 simulations, the blues win half the time, 5,000 times,

让一万次的模拟中，蓝方赢六千次，

and the reds win half the time, 5,000 times.

红方赢五千次，

And in the simulation, the fraction of the vote

在这个模拟中，他们如果要赢的话，

that they need in order to win is about 50 percent.

必须取得 50% 的票数。

These are the conditions that we're used to in a two-party system.

这是我们在两党制下习惯的条件。

Imagine if we suddenly run a third-party candidate

想象一下，如果我们突然推出 一个第三党候选人，

and we put that third-party candidate in the middle.

把他放在中间，

The third-party candidate is here in the middle,

第三党候选人在中间，

and I've set up the simulation to be a little bit closer

我设定的模拟

是让他略为比较靠近其中一座山峰，

to one of those peaks than the other,

因为第三党候选人更倾向于那些立场。

because that third party is more sympathetic to those views.

However, there's something a little bit funny here,

然而，奇怪的是，

蓝方仍然需要

which is that now that blue party

still needs 50 percent of the vote to win.

50% 的选票才能获胜。

But now, because the third party has divided the vote,

但现在，由于第三党分裂了选票，

now the reds only need 46 percent of the vote to win.

红方只需要 46% 的选票就能获胜。

And now we have a situation in which out of 10,000 simulations,

在这种情况下，一万次模拟中

the blues win now only 2,000 times, the reds win 8,000 times,

蓝方只赢了两千次， 红方赢了八千次，

and the third party doesn’t win at all.

而第三党一次都没有获胜。

And so this is counterproductive, right?

所以这是适得其反的，对吗？

This is what we call a spoiler effect, where paradoxically,

这就是我们所说的破坏效应，

第三党候选人反而破坏了 与其立场较接近的政党的获胜机会，

the third party has spoiled the chances of the party that is closer to them,

which is presumably the opposite of what they were trying to accomplish.

这显然与他们想要达到的目标相反。

Now there are other solutions that it turns out are more likely to work.

事实上，还有其他 更可能奏效的解决方案。

And one of them is redistricting.

其中一个是重新划分选区。

In the United States,

在美国，

we're mostly represented in single-member districts,

我们大多数人都是 由单一选区的代表来代表的，

因此我们有一个特定的 立法人代表我们。

and so we have a particular legislator who represents us.

In recent years, there's been a move to stem this.

近年来，有一股抑制 这种现象的浪潮。

You may have heard the word gerrymandering.

你可能听说过「杰利蝾螈」这个词。

Gerrymandering is the artful drawing of lines

「杰利蝾螈」是巧妙地 绘制线条来划分选区，

to disadvantage one candidate or a group,

以不利于某个候选人或群体——

could be a racial group or a whole political party,

可能是一个种族群体或整个政党——

and to eliminate competition.

并消除竞争的做法。

Computation can help identify such a plan.

计算技术可以通过 统计分析所有可能方案

By doing statistical analysis of the universe of possible plans,

来帮助识别这样的计划，，

it’s possible to show that a particular plan is an outlier.

并显示某个方案是一个异常值。

And when there’s an outlier, then a court can intervene.

出现异常值时，法院可以介入，

When the court intervenes, it can dictate the drawing of a new plan.

并指示绘制新方案。

Computation can also help voters.

计算技术还可以帮助选民。

Voters who vote to change the system, to change the rules,

选民投票改变制度、改变规则、

to establish an independent commission,

成立独立委员会，

can also take the power away from legislators,

也可以将权力从立法者手中拿走，

and they again will need computation.

他们需要的也是计算技术。

However, this solution, as attractive as it is, is not enough.

然而，这种解决方案 尽管很有吸引力，但还不够。

And that's because those two mountains which I showed you are everywhere.

因为我刚才提到的 那两座山峰无处不在。

And no matter how much we redraw the lines,

无论我们如何重新划分选区，

there's polarization across the nation.

全国各地依然存在两极化。

And so the question is, OK, what else do we need to do?

所以问题是，我们还需要做什么？

There's something else that's necessary.

甚么是必要的下一步？

The next step is to change the rules of the game itself.

下一步是改变游戏规则本身。

Alaska voters in the last few years have done exactly that.

阿拉斯加的选民在过去几年中 就是这样做的。

They voted to do away with partisan primaries.

他们投票废除了党派初选，

What they've done is remove the primaries

他们的做法是废除初选，

and replace them with an all-party primary.

并用一场所有党派 共同参与的初选取而代之。

Everybody runs in one single primary.

所有人都参加一场单一的初选，

The top four advance to the general election.

前四名晋级大选。

Because there are four candidates,

因为有四名候选人，

they then have to be elected under a ranked-choice rule.

他们就使用排名选择投票制。

Ranked choice is one where you list your first choice, second choice,

排名选择投票制是由选民 列出第一、第二、

third choice, fourth choice.

第三和第四的选择。

如果第一选择未达标，

If your first choice doesn't cut the mustard,

他就退出，他的选票就会重新分配。

then they drop out, and your vote is reassigned.

The consequence of this is that Democrats and Republicans

结果，民主党和共和党

仍然有机会晋级， 而且他们确实进入了大选。

still have a chance to advance, and they do, to the general election.

But it changes the incentives.

但这改变了他们的诱因。

They have to play not to their party faithful

他们不只需要迎合党派忠实支持者，

but instead they play to all voters.

而是迎合所有选民。

It changes tactics.

这改变了策略。

They try to win over each other's supporters,

他们试图争取彼此的支持者，

and it changes attitudes.

也改变了态度。

And just to give you an example,

举个例子，

here's a selfie that's taken by three congressional candidates,

这里有一张自拍照， 拍的是三位国会候选人，

one Democrat and two Republicans.

一位民主党人和两位共和党人。

And here they are chumming it up, taking a selfie together.

他们在一起开心地自拍，

And I can tell you that at least one of these candidates

而我可以告诉你， 其中至少有一位候选人

is not in the habit of chumming around with a member of the other party.

平时并不习惯与另一党的 成员亲密相处。

（笑声）

(Laughter)

So this is one way that, in fact, a new change of rules can help.

因此，这是变更规则 能有所帮助的一种方法。

And in fact, we've done simulations that show that this rule,

事实上，我们已经做了模拟，

显示这种名为「四人初选」的规则，

which is called top four primary, works with redistricting reform,

与我之前提到的选区改革结合使用，

the other one I showed you.

Put together, they can, in fact,

整合起来，

double the number of competitive districts.

确实能将有竞争力的 选区数量增加一倍。

So there's even a case in which there's synergy that's possible.

因此也甚至存在协同效应的可能性。

Now I’ve given you a few ideas,

现在，我已经给你提供了一些想法，

但其实有很多改革的想法， 你可能已经知道：

but there are actually many ideas for reform and you may know them:

废除选举人团、

eliminating the Electoral College,

赞成投票制、竞选财务改革。

approval voting, campaign finance reform.

The question is how to choose

问题是如何选择，

and how to figure out which ones to do first

以及如何决定哪个是最紧迫的

优先事项。

and with the most urgency.

And simulations can again help.

模拟再次可以帮助我们。

Simulations can game out outcomes.

模拟可以推演结果：

Representation, responsiveness, deliberation.

代表性、响应性、协商性。

And simulations can do something

模拟还可以做一些改革实施后

that enacting a reform cannot do easily,

难以轻易完成的事情，

which is game out long-term outcomes.

就是推演长期结果。

What’s going to happen 10 years from now?

十年后会发生什么？

And that's important.

这很重要。

Furthermore, every state is different, cities are different.

再者，每个州和每个城市的 情况都不同。

The same solution is not going to work in every place.

同一个解决方案 不会在每个地方都有效。

And so it's important to be flexible

所以，弹性很重要，

and to look for the solution that works best.

找到最合适的解决方案也很重要。

Somewhat shockingly, some states have even outlawed ranked-choice voting,

令人震惊的是，有些州 竟然禁止排名选择投票制，

and so one would have to come up with another solution for those places.

因此有人需要为这些地方 提出其他解决方案。

Now let me be realistic.

实际一点来说，

Math is not enough.

数学并不够。

But math can be assistive,

但数学可以提供帮助，

and it can help speed the process for people who want to change the system.

并能加速那些想要改变 体系的人的进程。

In other words, math and computation can act as a GPS

换句话说，我们可以将数学 和计算看作是 GPS，

to rescue our lost democracy.

利用它来拯救我们迷失的民主。

Now the way you can help is by advocating for reforms

你可以帮助的方式是

通过支持有选民提案的州进行改革。

through voter initiatives in states that have that.

You can advocate for local reform in your city or town.

可以支持在你的城市 或城镇进行地方改革。

And if you're a scientist, I really want your help.

如果你是科学家， 我真的需要你的帮助。

If you're a scientist, I want you to come

如果你是科学家，

and get to work understanding these things

我希望你来帮助了解这些事情，

in your city, in your town, in your state and in your nation.

无论是在你的城镇、 你的州，还是你的国家。

As it turns out, some of these reforms, such as ranked-choice voting,

事实证明，有些改革， 例如排名选择投票制，

have been run in hundreds of elections across America.

已经在美国各地的 数百场选举中进行，

这意味着现在正实时在进行着实验。

And that means there are experiments being done right now in real time.

I want to end with a quote from a former president, Theodore Roosevelt,

最后，我想引用一位前总统 西奥多·罗斯福的话，

who was not a scientist, but in fact was very interested in this.

他不是科学家， 但对这些问题非常感兴趣。

And he called democracy an experiment.

他称民主是一项实验。

He said, "Democracy is this national experiment

他说：「民主是一项国家实验，

in which it's essential for the rules to end up representing all of us."

最终做出来的规则 必须能够代表我们所有人。」

It's my hope that math can help get us there

我希望数学能帮助我们 达成这个目标，

and build a better future for all of us.

为我们所有人构建更美好的未来。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）