Capitalism Broke the Climate. Now It Can Fix It | Akshat Rathi | TED

翻译人员: Shuyue Shao 校对人员: Lening Xu

我曾在某个气候抗议活动上 看到这样一张海报，

I was at a climate protest, and I saw a poster that said, in big letters,

上面几个大大的字母写着：

"Burn capitalism, not coal."

“真正该投入火坑的 是资本主义，而不是煤炭。”

How many of you agree

在座有多少人同意这个观点

that to tackle climate change, we should stop burning coal?

为了应对气候变化， 我们应该停止焚烧煤炭？

Raise your hands.

请举手。

Almost all of you.

几乎所有人都举手了。

And how many of you agree that to tackle climate change,

那又有多少人同意， 为了应对气候变化，

we should burn capitalism?

我们应该销毁资本主义？

There are a few hands, but not as many.

有几只手举起来了，但没有 像上一个问题那么多。

I'm a journalist, and I write about climate solutions.

我是一名记者，主要撰写 有关气候解决方案的文章。

And when I ask this question of people,

当我向人们提出这个问题时，

I get the full range of answers,

我收到的回答各式各样，

from those who say that the system that got us into this mess

有人认为，资本主义 只能给我们造成混乱，

can never get us out of it,

而无法带我们逃脱这些困境。

to those who say that the only answer is to unleash market forces

也有人认为唯一的答案， 是解放市场的力量

for the innovations we need.

以鼓励创造 我们真正所需的东西。

But who is right?

但到底谁是对的？

I wanted to find the answer for myself.

我想自己找到答案。

So I started on the rooftop of my childhood home in India.

因此，我从小时候在印度 居住过的房屋屋顶开始实验。

I wanted to get solar panels for my parents.

我想要为父母 购置太阳能电池板。

It took two days to get quotes,

我花了两天咨询报价，

two weeks to have those shiny devices up on the roof,

花了两周，把那些亮闪闪的设备 安装在屋顶上，

ready to capture the sun's energy.

确保它们能够吸收太阳能。

The payback was quick.

我们很快就看见了回报。

Electricity bills fell,

每月的电费减少了，

and my parents have recovered the investment in five years.

仅仅五年， 这笔投资已经回本。

For the next 15 years, they can enjoy solar power for free.

而在接下来的十五年里， 我的父母可以免费享受太阳能。

So what has capitalism got to do with it?

所以资本主义与 这个故事有什么关系呢？

Well, India did not invent the technologies

这么说吧，印度并没有 研发相对应的技术

that go into solar panels.

可以应用于太阳能电池板

Even today, India manufactures only a small fraction of what it deploys.

即便在今天

在印度实际安装的电池板

仅有一小部分是生产于印度

And yet, a country with less than 3,000 dollars

但是，就是在这样一个国家

of income per person per year

人均年收入低于 3,000 美元，

is able to benefit

人们仍可以享受

from what is now one of the world's cheapest sources of energy.

现在世界上 最便宜的能源之一。

This has happened because profit-seeking companies

这一切可以发生， 是因为盈利性公司

want to sell all of us more and more solar panels.

希望向我们所有人出售 更多的太阳能电池板。

But it has happened because governments created that market

但同样地，这一切 能实现是因为政府

through subsidies and regulations.

通过提供补贴和制定规范， 创造了这个市场。

We know the more we build, the cheaper it gets.

我们知道我们生产的越多， 能源就会越便宜。

And it's not just the story of solar.

不仅仅是太阳能——

Between 2009 and 2019,

在 2009 年至 2019 年之间，

the price of solar fell 90 percent.

太阳能的价格下降了 90％ 。

Wind -- 70 percent.

风能下降了 70% 。

Lithium-ion batteries -- 85 percent.

锂离子电池下降了 85% 。

This is what I call “climate capitalism.”

这就是我所说的 “气候资本主义”。

Climate emergency is forcing governments and businesses

这一概念指的是， 气候危机迫使政府和企业

to change how capitalism works,

对资本主义的运作方式进行改革

to use its forces for creating the solutions we need

并动用资本主义的力量 来创造我们需要的气候方案，

rather than making the problem worse.

而不是激化现有的问题。

And look, it's not happening everywhere,

不得不说这种例子并不常见，

or at the pace at which we need.

或者有进展，却不如 我们所预期的顺利。

There are still companies that are profiting from pollution.

当下仍有公司从污染中获利。

However, in country after country where I've had a chance to report,

但是，在有幸为 多个国家撰写新闻后，

I've found that a combination of people, policy and technology,

我发现人、政策和技术 结合在一起时，

when they come together, climate solutions do work.

气候解决方案确实有效。

Now the primary motivation to deploy these solutions

现在，部署这些 解决方案的首要动机，

does not have to be tackling climate change.

不一定是应对气候变化。

Other pressing issues, such as air pollution

其他紧迫问题， 例如空气污染

or energy security, or global competitiveness,

或能源安全， 或全球竞争力，

can garner even more support.

都可以通过人-政策-技术的实践模式 获得更多支持。

How exactly?

那我说的“人-政策-技术” 到底是什么意思？

Let me tell you the story of Wan Gang.

让我来讲讲关于万钢的故事。

You've probably never heard of him,

你也许从未听说过他，

but he has done more for the global rise of electric cars than Elon Musk.

但他在电动汽车的全球发展上 做出的贡献比埃隆·马斯克还要多。

Wan was born in China.

万钢出生于中国。

He trained as an auto engineer

早年间，万钢接受了 汽车工程师的培训，

before moving to Germany and working for Audi.

后来他移居德国， 并进入奥迪公司工作。

There, he saw the lifestyle that Germans lived,

在那里，他看到了 德国人的生活方式，

and realized that, perhaps, Chinese people may never be able to experience it.

并意识到中国人也许永远 无法体验到这种生活方式。

That's because in 2000,

因为在 2000 年，

China burned about one barrel of oil per person per year.

在中国每人每年 消耗大约一桶石油。

Germans burned 12 times as much.

而德国人的用油量 是中国人的 12 倍。

So he made the case to the Chinese leadership

因此他向中国领导人提出

that the country needed to work on an alternative --

中国需要研究 替代石油的交通能源方案

and that he was willing to lead the charge.

并且他主动要求 领导这项工作。

So he was given a chance to work on a government program.

也因此他得到一个 参与政府计划的机会——

Wan's team, in a period of eight years,

万钢的团队， 在长达八年的时间内

built hundreds of electric cars and buses

制造了数百辆用于北京奥运会

that were used at the Beijing Olympics.

的电动汽车和公共巴士。

In those same eight years, the country's oil bill ballooned,

同样，在这八年中， 该国的原油价格激增，

and its cities became globally infamous for air pollution.

国内城市因空气污染 而在全球范围内声名狼藉。

But Wan had shown that an alternative could work.

但万钢的项目却证明， 这个新的替代方案是行得通的。

If China could scale the manufacturing of electric cars,

如果中国能够扩大 电动汽车的制造规模，

air pollution would be cut,

空气污染将会减轻，

oil imports would be cut.

而原油进口需求会随之变弱。

And most importantly, China would create a new industry

最重要的是， 中国将创造一个新的产业，

that could compete with other countries.

可以与其他国家相竞争。

So Wan was made the science minister,

因此，万钢被任命为 国家科学技术部部长

and the government started giving out tens of billions of dollars in subsidies

而政府开始为电动汽车 和锂离子电池的制造

for the manufacturing of electric cars and lithium-ion batteries.

提供数百亿美元的补贴。

The government also started putting regulations

政府也开始制定法规，

to make it harder to buy fossil-fuel cars.

限制化石燃料汽车的购买。

Even today, if you’re in Shanghai

即使在今天， 如果你生活在上海

and you want to buy a gasoline-powered car,

并且想要购买 一辆汽油汽车，

you have to enter a lottery and win it.

你必须参加抽签 并赢得购买资格。

If you want an electric car,

而如果你只是 想要一辆电动汽车，

you can just go to a showroom and buy one.

你可以直接去展厅买一辆。

The Chinese government provided direction,

中国政府提供了方向，

but it was the practitioners of capitalism

但却是资本主义的践行者 ——市场与企业

that made a small electric-car industry into the global giant that it is today.

使得小型电动汽车行业 变成了今日的国际巨头。

One of those investors was Warren Buffett.

另一位看好该行业的投资者 是沃伦·巴菲特。

He invested in a little-known company then, called BYD.

他投资了一家名为比亚迪的公司， 彼时还无人知晓

Today, BYD sells more electric cars than Tesla.

如今，比亚迪的电动汽车销量 甚至超过特斯拉。

Now you might think what China did cannot be replicated by democracies.

你可能会认为中国的所作所为 无法被民主国家复制。

But as it happens,

但令人意想不到的是，

China took inspiration from the paragon of capitalism:

中国是从资本主义的典型： 美国，获得启发。

the USA.

Throughout the previous century,

在上个世纪的时间里，

the US has used the instruments of government

美国通过政府的大手

to redirect investments toward national priorities.

将投资资金定向注入 国家优先发展项目。

Take the semiconductor industry,

以半导体行业为例，

the reason why California is home to Silicon Valley.

为什么硅谷能够诞生于 加利福尼亚州？

It was created with generous contracts from the Department of Defense.

硅谷的建立正是因为 国防部鼎力支助。

It's also a similar case for biotech, for airlines, for the internet.

同样的还有生物技术、 航空公司、甚至互联网

All of them have fingerprints of the government from [their] birth.

他们每个项目的诞生 背后都有政府的扶持。

In fact, China's electric vehicle policy

实际上，中国制定 电动汽车政策，

is a modified version of California's Zero Emission Vehicle mandate.

正是借鉴了美国加州 推行零排放汽车法规的先例。

That policy was crucial in keeping Tesla afloat by providing subsidies.

特斯拉能够运转自如， 后者提供的补贴功不可没。

That, by the way, is George W. Bush

顺便说一句，这是乔治·W·布什

in a hydrogen-powered electric bus in California in 2006.

2006 年在加利福尼亚 乘坐氢动力电动巴士的照片。

But now that China has a lead on all sorts of green technologies,

现阶段，中国在各种绿色技术方面 都处于领先地位，

the US is being forced to catch up.

美国被迫要迎头赶上。

The Inflation Reduction Act, passed in 2022, is one response.

而 2022 年通过的 《通货膨胀削减法案》就是回应之一。

It will see the US government provide hundreds of billions of dollars

在该法案中，美国政府提出

of subsidies towards all kinds of solutions,

向各种气候解决方案， 从绿色氢气到热泵，

from green hydrogen to heat pumps.

提供数千亿美元的补贴。

That will be multiplied by matching private investment.

政府将匹配私有投资的数额 对项目进行补贴。

But climate capitalism

但是，我所说的“气候资本主义”

isn't just about putting government subsidies to work.

不仅仅是指向气候方案 注入政府补贴。

That's because the climate crisis

那是因为气候危机

is the greatest market failure of all time.

是市场经济推行以来 最大的败笔。

Governments around the world

世界各地的政府

have allowed corporations to pollute for free,

都放任企业污染环境， 不必付出任何代价

and all that pollution is causing damages to all of us,

而这些污染反过来 让我们所有人都受到伤害：

in the form of climate impacts,

例如气候影响，

health inequalities, dislocation of communities.

健康资源分配不均， 社区分布失衡...

In some parts of the world,

在世界的某些地方，

leaders are starting to correct that mistake.

领导人已经开始 纠正这一错误。

But Europe has put a price on pollution and created legally binding targets.

欧洲已经对污染进行收费，并 制定了有法律约束力的气候目标。

That has helped the continent

这使得欧洲

cut its carbon footprint faster than any other.

比其他大陆 更快地减少碳足迹。

It's also changed how businesses operate in Europe.

这一举措同时也改变了 企业在欧洲的运作方式。

The Danish Oil and Natural Gas Company was founded in 1972.

丹麦石油和天然气公司 成立于 1972 年。

For 40 years, it dug up fossil fuels.

40 年以来，该公司一直以 勘探和生产化石燃料为主要业务。

Then Denmark adopted a carbon price and a climate law,

但在丹麦通过了 碳定价和气候法之后

and suddenly, its business model became implausible.

突然之间，公司的商业模式 发生了天翻地覆的变化。

Today, you know that company as Ørsted.

今天，该公司更名为 Ørsted。

It transitioned away from fossil fuels starting in 2009,

它从 2009 年开始转型， 从化石燃料相关市场中退出，

and it has become the largest developer of offshore wind power.

如今它已成为全球 最大的海上风电开发商。

This hasn't been a smooth ride.

其转型绝非一帆风顺。

There just aren't as many success stories as the world needs.

世界上像 Ørsted 的成功案例 远比我们所需要的要少。

That's because the climate challenge is really complicated.

这是因为气候问题 的确十分复杂。

India has an ambitious renewables goal, but it's falling behind.

印度雄心勃勃地制定了 可再生能源的目标，却未能如期实现

Europe has seen job losses

欧洲由于碳排放价格过高， 出现了失业的现象。

because its carbon price has been too high.

That has caused some industries to shut down

这导致一些行业倒闭，

and move to other parts, where there isn't a carbon price.

并转移到没有碳成本的其他地区。

And China's emissions last year

尽管清洁能源建设已创历史新高， 但中国去年的碳排放仍在上升。

rose despite a record clean energy build out.

For climate capitalism to work,

想要气候资本主义发挥作用，

governments and businesses need to be flexible.

政府和企业需要保持灵活性。

They need to recognize when there are policies that require certainty,

他们需要认识到， 何时需要确定性的政策，

but if they're not working, then they must be changed.

而一旦政策不起作用， 政府必须及时更改。

India is now doubling down on solar, with batteries,

印度正在大量 投资太阳能和电池，

because it's seeing a rise in electricity demand.

因为国家的电力需求 正在不断增加。

Europe has introduced a carbon tariff

欧洲则出台了碳关税，

that's going to put a price of pollution on imports.

对进口商品的污染进行收费。

That will level the playing field

这将平衡国内产业的损失

for domestic industry and STEM job losses.

和减缓科技与技术工作岗位的流失。

And some experts think

而一些专家认为

that if China can continue its clean energy build out at the same pace,

如果中国能够继续 以同样的速率建设清洁能源，

its emissions may have peaked last year.

碳排放量可能已在去年达到峰值， 并在之后逐年下降。

Now what’s remarkable is that some businesses are seeing

而现在，值得注意的是， 有一些企业开始认识到

that it's in their self-interest to act on climate change,

无论政府是否进行监管，

with or without regulations.

积极应对气候变化 总对他们是有益的。

So far, we've looked at big, economy-wide changes.

到目前为止，我们已经说了很多 大范围的、经济层面上的革新。

Now let's think about something as simple as ice cream.

现在让我们说些简单的， 比如售卖雪糕。

You would think that during a heat wave, an ice cream maker will turn big profits,

你可能会认为，冰淇淋制造商 在酷暑期间将会赚大钱，

selling lots and lots of ice cream.

卖出很多冰淇淋。

But heat waves are becoming so extreme

但是当温度变得难以忍耐时

that people are choosing to stay at home instead.

人们只会选择待在家里， 而不是出门购买雪糕。

At the same time, smallholder farmers

与此同时，那些小型农户

that are the supply chain of ice cream makers

作为雪糕原料的供应商

are seeing their productivity fall.

也会发现他们的产能正在下降。

That's because of intense heat, drought, floods.

这是因为高温、干旱和洪水

It means the cost of making ice cream is going up.

使制作冰淇淋的人力成本 不断上升。

It's a double whammy.

这简直是双重打击。

Lower sales, higher costs.

收入降低，成本上升。

Increasingly, businesses are recognizing

越来越多的企业认识到，

that there are fewer profits to be made on a planet on fire.

在一个“着火”的星球上 能赚钱的机会只会越来越少。

So let's go back to that poster.

因此，让我们回到那张海报上——

Is the answer to tackle climate change to burn capitalism, not coal?

解决气候问题的关键， 到底是消灭资本主义还是停止焚烧煤炭？

I hope the examples I've shared show that the problem isn't capitalism,

我希望我分享的例子表明， 答案不在于彻底放弃资本主义，

but how it's being allowed to run.

而是引导资本主义如何运作。

We only have a few decades left to get to zero emissions.

我们只剩下几十年的时间 来实现零排放的目标。

The fastest way to get there is to change capitalism.

而实现这一目标的最快方法 是对资本主义进行革新。

How to do it?

到底怎么做？

Through a combination of people, policy and technology.

通过人力、政策和技术的结合。

Dedicated people,

专注的人才、

smarter policies and cheaper technologies.

更明智的政策和更便宜的技术。

That is how you'll get businesses to focus on the solutions the world needs.

只有这样，才能促使企业 专注于提供我们所需的解决方案。

That is how people like my parents in India,

也只有这样，像我父母 一样在印度的人们，

and all of us around the world,

以及世界各地的人，

will get access to those solutions,

可以轻松使用这些新型能源，

and that is how the world will finally stop burning coal

而最终，这将使 我们停止燃烧煤炭

and all other fossil fuels.

和所有其他化石燃料。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）