Capitalism Broke the Climate. Now It Can Fix It | Akshat Rathi | TED

譯者: Tong Zhangjun 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

I was at a climate protest, and I saw a poster that said, in big letters,

我參加氣候抗議， 看到一張海報，用大字母寫著：

"Burn capitalism, not coal."

「燒掉資本主義，而不是燒掉煤炭。」

How many of you agree

你們中有多少人贊同，

that to tackle climate change, we should stop burning coal?

為了應對氣候變化， 我們應該停止燃煤？

Raise your hands.

舉起你的雙手。

Almost all of you.

你們幾乎都贊同。

And how many of you agree that to tackle climate change,

你們中有多少人贊同， 為了應對氣候變化，

we should burn capitalism?

我們應該燒毀資本主義？

There are a few hands, but not as many.

有幾隻手，但沒有那麼多。

I'm a journalist, and I write about climate solutions.

我是一名記者， 撰寫關於氣候問題的解決方案文章。

And when I ask this question of people,

當我向人們問這個問題時，

I get the full range of answers,

我得到了完整的答案，

from those who say that the system that got us into this mess

人們說，這種陷入混亂的系統，

can never get us out of it,

讓人們永遠無法擺脫問題的困擾。

to those who say that the only answer is to unleash market forces

他們說唯一的答案， 是釋放市場力量，

for the innovations we need.

來發揮創新。

But who is right?

但是誰是對的？

I wanted to find the answer for myself.

我想為自己找到答案。

So I started on the rooftop of my childhood home in India.

所以我從印度童年家的 屋頂上開始。

I wanted to get solar panels for my parents.

我想為父母買 太陽能電池板

It took two days to get quotes,

需要兩天 才能獲得報價，

two weeks to have those shiny devices up on the roof,

兩週才能將那 些閃亮的設備放在屋頂上，

ready to capture the sun's energy.

準備好捕捉太陽能量。

The payback was quick.

回報很快：

Electricity bills fell,

電費下降了，

and my parents have recovered the investment in five years.

我父母在5年 內回收了投資。

For the next 15 years, they can enjoy solar power for free.

未來15年， 他們可以免費享受太陽能。

So what has capitalism got to do with it?

那麼， 資本主義與它有什麼關係？

Well, India did not invent the technologies

好吧，印度並沒有發明

that go into solar panels.

太陽能電池板的技術。

Even today, India manufactures only a small fraction of what it deploys.

即使如今，印度 只製造其部署的產品的一小部分。

And yet, a country with less than 3,000 dollars

然而，一個每人每年收入少於 3,000 美元

of income per person per year

的國家

is able to benefit

卻可以從

from what is now one of the world's cheapest sources of energy.

世界上最便宜的能源中受益。

This has happened because profit-seeking companies

這發生的是 因為追求利潤的公司

want to sell all of us more and more solar panels.

希望向我們所有人銷售越來越 多的太陽能電池板。

But it has happened because governments created that market

但是這發生的是 因為政府通過補貼和

through subsidies and regulations.

法規創建了該市場。

We know the more we build, the cheaper it gets.

我們知道我們建造越多， 它就越便宜。

And it's not just the story of solar.

而這不僅僅是太陽的故事。

Between 2009 and 2019,

在 2009 年至 2019 年之間，

the price of solar fell 90 percent.

太陽能的價格下降了 90％。

Wind -- 70 percent.

風量--70％。

Lithium-ion batteries -- 85 percent.

鋰離子電池-85%。

This is what I call “climate capitalism.”

這就是我所稱為「氣候資本主義」的。

Climate emergency is forcing governments and businesses

氣候緊急情況迫使 政府和企業

to change how capitalism works,

改變資本主義運作方式，

to use its forces for creating the solutions we need

利用其力量來創造我們 需要的解決方案，

rather than making the problem worse.

而不是使問題變得更糟。

And look, it's not happening everywhere,

你看，它不會在任何地方發生，

or at the pace at which we need.

也不是以我們需要的速度發生。

There are still companies that are profiting from pollution.

仍有公司 從污染中獲利。

However, in country after country where I've had a chance to report,

然而，在我曾有 機會報告的國家，

I've found that a combination of people, policy and technology,

我發現人員、 政策和技術的結合時，

when they come together, climate solutions do work.

氣候解決方案會有效。

Now the primary motivation to deploy these solutions

現在，部署這些 解決方案的

does not have to be tackling climate change.

主要動機不一定是應 對氣候變化。

Other pressing issues, such as air pollution

其他緊急問題， 例如空氣污染

or energy security, or global competitiveness,

能源安全， 或全球競爭力，

can garner even more support.

都可以獲得更多的支持。

How exactly?

具體是什麽呢？

Let me tell you the story of Wan Gang.

讓我告訴你 王剛的故事。

You've probably never heard of him,

您可能從未聽說過他，

but he has done more for the global rise of electric cars than Elon Musk.

但他比埃隆馬斯克為電動汽車的 全球崛起做了更多貢獻。

Wan was born in China.

王出生於中國。

He trained as an auto engineer

在搬到德國並為奧迪工作之前，

before moving to Germany and working for Audi.

他被訓練成為了一名汽車工程師。

There, he saw the lifestyle that Germans lived,

在那裡，他看到德國 人生活的生活方式，

and realized that, perhaps, Chinese people may never be able to experience it.

並意識到，也許中國人 也許永遠無法體驗到它。

That's because in 2000,

這是因為在 2000 年，

China burned about one barrel of oil per person per year.

中國每人每年 燃燒約一桶石油。

Germans burned 12 times as much.

德國人燒了 12 倍，

So he made the case to the Chinese leadership

因此，他向中國領導表示，

that the country needed to work on an alternative --

需要尋找一種替代方案，

and that he was willing to lead the charge.

並且他願意領導該項目。

So he was given a chance to work on a government program.

因此，他獲得了機會， 為政府做計劃。

Wan's team, in a period of eight years,

王剛的團隊在八年的時間內，

built hundreds of electric cars and buses

製造了數百輛在北京奧運會上

that were used at the Beijing Olympics.

使用的電動汽車和巴士。

In those same eight years, the country's oil bill ballooned,

在這八年中， 該國的石油賬單飆升，

and its cities became globally infamous for air pollution.

城市也因空氣污 染而聞名全球。

But Wan had shown that an alternative could work.

但是王剛的替代方案 表明有效。

If China could scale the manufacturing of electric cars,

如果中國能擴 大電動汽車的製造，

air pollution would be cut,

空氣污染將被減少，

oil imports would be cut.

石油進口將被削減。

And most importantly, China would create a new industry

最重要的是， 中國將創建一個可以與

that could compete with other countries.

其他國家競爭的新產業。

So Wan was made the science minister,

因此，王剛被任命為

and the government started giving out tens of billions of dollars in subsidies

科學部長，政府開始為電 動汽車和鋰離子電池的製造

for the manufacturing of electric cars and lithium-ion batteries.

提供數十億美 元的補貼。

The government also started putting regulations

政府還開始制定法規，

to make it harder to buy fossil-fuel cars.

使購買化石燃料汽車變得更困難。

Even today, if you’re in Shanghai

即使在今天，如果您在上海

and you want to buy a gasoline-powered car,

並想購買一輛汽油驅動的汽車，

you have to enter a lottery and win it.

必須參加抽簽才具備購買資格。

If you want an electric car,

如果你想要一輛電動汽車，

you can just go to a showroom and buy one.

你可以去展廳直接購買一輛。

The Chinese government provided direction,

中國政府提供指導，

but it was the practitioners of capitalism

但是，正是資本主義的從業者，

that made a small electric-car industry into the global giant that it is today.

使一個小型電動汽車行業 成為如今的全球巨頭。

One of those investors was Warren Buffett.

其中一位投資者是沃倫·巴菲特。

He invested in a little-known company then, called BYD.

當時他投資了一家不知名的公司， 叫比亞迪。

Today, BYD sells more electric cars than Tesla.

今天，比亞迪銷售的電 動汽車比特斯拉更多。

Now you might think what China did cannot be replicated by democracies.

現在，你可能會認為中國所做 的事無法被民主制複製。

But as it happens,

但事實上，

China took inspiration from the paragon of capitalism:

中國從資本主 義的典範：美國

the USA.

取得靈感。

Throughout the previous century,

在過去一世紀，美國

the US has used the instruments of government

一直使用政府的工具

to redirect investments toward national priorities.

用投資定 向國家優先事項。

Take the semiconductor industry,

比如半導體行業，

the reason why California is home to Silicon Valley.

正是矽谷位於加利福尼亞的原因。

It was created with generous contracts from the Department of Defense.

它是通過國防部的大規模合同創建的。。

It's also a similar case for biotech, for airlines, for the internet.

生物科技、航空公司和互聯網 也是類似的案例。

All of them have fingerprints of the government from [their] birth.

他們所有人都有自 出生以來的政府指紋。

In fact, China's electric vehicle policy

事實上，中國的電動汽車政策

is a modified version of California's Zero Emission Vehicle mandate.

是加州零排放車輛授 權的修改版本。

That policy was crucial in keeping Tesla afloat by providing subsidies.

這項政策對於通過提供補貼來保持 特斯拉活躍至關重要。

That, by the way, is George W. Bush

順便說一句，那就是喬治·布什在 2006

in a hydrogen-powered electric bus in California in 2006.

年在加利福尼亞的 氫動電動巴士上提出的。

But now that China has a lead on all sorts of green technologies,

但現在，中國在各種綠色技術方面

the US is being forced to catch up.

擁有領先地位，美國被迫追趕。

The Inflation Reduction Act, passed in 2022, is one response.

2022 年通過的通脹 降低法是其中一個答案。

It will see the US government provide hundreds of billions of dollars

它將看到美國政府 為各種解決方案提供數十 億美元的補貼，

of subsidies towards all kinds of solutions,

從綠色氫

from green hydrogen to heat pumps.

到熱泵。

That will be multiplied by matching private investment.

這將數倍匹配私人投資。

But climate capitalism

但是氣候資本主義

isn't just about putting government subsidies to work.

並不只是讓政府補貼發揮作用。

That's because the climate crisis

這是因為氣候危機

is the greatest market failure of all time.

是有史以來最大的市場失敗。

Governments around the world

世界各地的政

have allowed corporations to pollute for free,

府都允許企業免費污染，

and all that pollution is causing damages to all of us,

所有這些污染對我們所有人造成損害，

in the form of climate impacts,

不同程度的影响氣候和健康

health inequalities, dislocation of communities.

擾亂社區生活。

In some parts of the world,

在世界的某些地方，

leaders are starting to correct that mistake.

領導者開始糾正錯誤。

But Europe has put a price on pollution and created legally binding targets.

歐洲已經給污染制定赔偿價格， 並制定了具有法律約束力的目標。

That has helped the continent

幫助這塊大陸

cut its carbon footprint faster than any other.

比其他任何大陸 更快地減少碳足跡。

It's also changed how businesses operate in Europe.

它也改變了企業 在歐洲的運作方式。

The Danish Oil and Natural Gas Company was founded in 1972.

丹麥石油和天然氣公司 成立於1972 年。

For 40 years, it dug up fossil fuels.

40 年來，它挖出化石燃料。

Then Denmark adopted a carbon price and a climate law,

然後丹麥採用了碳價格和氣候法，

and suddenly, its business model became implausible.

突然其商業模式 變得不可思議。

Today, you know that company as Ørsted.

今天，你認識那個公司叫 Ørsted。

It transitioned away from fossil fuels starting in 2009,

它從 2009年開始遠離化石燃料，

and it has become the largest developer of offshore wind power.

並已成為離岸風力發電 的最大開發商。

This hasn't been a smooth ride.

這一行程並不順暢。

There just aren't as many success stories as the world needs.

只是世界所需的成功 故事沒有那麼多。

That's because the climate challenge is really complicated.

這是因為氣候挑戰真 的很複雜。

India has an ambitious renewables goal, but it's falling behind.

印度有雄心勃勃的可再生能源國家目標， 但卻落後了。

Europe has seen job losses

歐洲碳排放（治理）價格太高，

because its carbon price has been too high.

歐洲已經失去相关行业就業。

That has caused some industries to shut down

這導致了一些行業關閉，

and move to other parts, where there isn't a carbon price.

並轉移到其他地 區，那裡沒有碳排放價格。

And China's emissions last year

儘管清潔能源的增加創了紀錄，

rose despite a record clean energy build out.

但去年中國的排放量依然上升。

For climate capitalism to work,

為了讓氣候資本主義發揮作用，

governments and businesses need to be flexible.

政府和企業需要靈活應對。

They need to recognize when there are policies that require certainty,

他們需要認識到 何時需要確定的政策，

but if they're not working, then they must be changed.

但如果不起作用， 則必須更改它們。

India is now doubling down on solar, with batteries,

印度現在正在加倍使 用太陽能和電池，

because it's seeing a rise in electricity demand.

因為它看到電力 需求正在增加。

Europe has introduced a carbon tariff

歐洲已經實施了碳關稅，

that's going to put a price of pollution on imports.

將進口產品造成污染的價格提高。

That will level the playing field

這將為工業產業

for domestic industry and STEM job losses.

和 STEM 失业制造平衡的競爭環境。

And some experts think

一些專家認為，

that if China can continue its clean energy build out at the same pace,

如果中國能夠以相同的 速度繼續發展清潔能源，

its emissions may have peaked last year.

去年的排放量 可能就是歷史最高峰。。

Now what’s remarkable is that some businesses are seeing

現在值得注意的是， 我們看到有些企業，

that it's in their self-interest to act on climate change,

對氣候變化採取行動，無 論有或沒有規定，

with or without regulations.

都是為了自己利益。

So far, we've looked at big, economy-wide changes.

目前為止， 我們已考慮了全經濟的重大變化。

Now let's think about something as simple as ice cream.

現在讓我們想想像冰淇淋 這樣簡單的東西。

You would think that during a heat wave, an ice cream maker will turn big profits,

您會認為在高溫熱浪天氣期間， 冰淇淋製造商將獲得巨大的利潤，

selling lots and lots of ice cream.

銷售大量冰淇淋。

But heat waves are becoming so extreme

但是高溫熱浪天氣變得如此激烈，

that people are choosing to stay at home instead.

人們改為選擇留在家中。

At the same time, smallholder farmers

與此同時，作為冰淇淋製造

that are the supply chain of ice cream makers

商供應鏈上的小農夫，

are seeing their productivity fall.

他們的生產力下降。

That's because of intense heat, drought, floods.

這是因為強烈的炎熱、乾旱、洪水，

It means the cost of making ice cream is going up.

意味著製作冰淇淋的成本 正在上漲。

It's a double whammy.

這是一個雙重打擊。

Lower sales, higher costs.

銷售量較低，成本更高。

Increasingly, businesses are recognizing

企業越來越認識

that there are fewer profits to be made on a planet on fire.

在炎熱的星球上可以獲 得的利潤較少。

So let's go back to that poster.

所以，讓我們回到那個海報。

Is the answer to tackle climate change to burn capitalism, not coal?

應對氣候變化的答案是： 燃燒掉資本主義，而不是燃燒煤炭？

I hope the examples I've shared show that the problem isn't capitalism,

我希望我分享的例子表明： 問題不在於資本主義，

but how it's being allowed to run.

而是如何允許它運行。

We only have a few decades left to get to zero emissions.

我們只剩幾十年， 能達到零排放。

The fastest way to get there is to change capitalism.

到達那裡的最快方法 是改變資本主義。

How to do it?

如何做到這一點？

Through a combination of people, policy and technology.

通過人、 政策和技術的結合。

Dedicated people,

專注的人員，

smarter policies and cheaper technologies.

更聰明的政策和更便宜的技術。

That is how you'll get businesses to focus on the solutions the world needs.

這就是讓企業專注於世界 所需的解決方案。

That is how people like my parents in India,

就是像我在印度的父母

and all of us around the world,

和世界各地的我們所有人，

will get access to those solutions,

都能受益於這些解決方案，

and that is how the world will finally stop burning coal

世界終於停止燃燒煤炭

and all other fossil fuels.

和所有其他化石燃料。

Thank you.

謝謝！

(Applause)

（掌聲）