AI’s Single Point of Failure | Rob Toews | TED

翻译人员: Yip Yan Yeung 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

[注：本字幕仅代表讲者观点， 不代表译者观点]

The following statement is utterly ludicrous.

以下说法太离谱了。

It is also true.

但也是事实。

The world's most important advanced technology

世界上最重要的先进技术

is nearly all produced in a single facility.

几乎全部都是由一家工厂生产的。

What's more, that facility is located

而且该工厂

in one of the most geopolitically fraught areas on Earth,

位于地球上地缘政治最紧张的地区之一，

an area in which many analysts believe that war is inevitable within the decade.

许多分析人士认为， 十年内战争是不可避免的。

The future of artificial intelligence hangs in the balance.

人工智能的未来命悬一线。

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company,

台湾积体电路制造股份有限公司，

or TSMC,

即 TSMC，

makes all of the world's most-advanced AI chips.

生产了世界上所有最先进的 AI 芯片。

This includes Nvidia's GPUs, Google's TPUs, AMD's GPUs,

包括英伟达的 GPU、 谷歌的 TPU、AMD 的 GPU、

the AI chips for Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla,

微软、亚马逊、特斯拉、

Cerebrus, SambaNova

Cerebrus、SambaNova

and every other credible competitor.

和其他有力竞争者公司的 AI 芯片。

Modern artificial intelligence simply would not be possible

没有这些高度专业化的芯片， 现代 AI 根本不可能实现。

without these highly specialized chips.

Little wonder, then,

也难怪《时代》杂志最近 将台积电描述为

that Time magazine recently described TSMC as,

"The world's most important company that you've probably never heard of."

“你可能闻所未闻的 世界上最重要的公司。”

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang put it more colorfully,

英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋 说得更生动形象：

saying, “Basically, there is air ... and TSMC.”

“有空气……还有台积电。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

TSMC's chip fabrication facilities, or fabs,

台积电的芯片制造设施 或晶圆厂（Fab），

the buildings where chips are physically built,

即实际制造芯片的建筑，

is located on the western coast of Taiwan,

位于台湾西海岸，

a mere 110 miles from mainland China.

仅距离中国大陆 110 英里。 [注：以下观点不代表译者意见]

In this map, Taiwan is shown in orange and China is shown in green.

在这张地图中，台湾以橙色显示， 中国以绿色显示。

Today, China and Taiwan are nearer to the brink of war

如今，中国与台湾比以往任何时候 战争都更一触即发。

than they have been in decades.

Many policymakers in Washington predict that China will invade Taiwan

华盛顿的许多高级官员 预测中国将在未来五年内

within the next five years.

进攻台湾。

A China-Taiwan conflict would be devastating

两岸冲突将是毁灭性的，

for many reasons.

原因有很多。

Aside from the heavy human toll,

除了造成严重的人员伤亡外，

one underappreciated consequence

一个被低估的后果是

is that it would paralyze the global AI ecosystem.

它将使全球 AI 生态系统陷入瘫痪。

Put simply, the entire field of artificial intelligence

简而言之，整个人工智能领域

faces an astonishingly precarious single point of failure in Taiwan.

在台湾面临着一个 极其不稳定的单点故障。

Amid all of the fervor around AI today,

在当今人们对 AI 的热情中，

this fact is not widely enough appreciated.

这一事实还不够广为人知。

If you are working on or are interested in AI,

如果你正在研究 AI 或对 AI 感兴趣，

you need to be paying attention.

你得注意了。

How did we get here and what can we do about it?

我们是怎么走到这一步的， 我们又能做些什么呢？

Let's start with a brief, whirlwind overview of the chip industry.

让我们从对芯片行业的 简短概述开始。

Semiconductors, or chips, are the most complex object in the world

半导体或芯片是世界上 人类知道如何批量生产

that humanity knows how to mass-produce.

最复杂的物体。

Making semiconductors requires the world's purest metals,

制造半导体需要世界上最纯净的金属、

the world's most expensive machinery,

世界上最昂贵的机械、

legions of highly specialized engineers

大批非常专业的工程师

and atom-level manufacturing precision.

和原子级制造精度。

It is important to distinguish between two different types of chip companies.

区分两种不同类型的芯片公司很重要。

First, fabless chip makers,

首先是无晶圆厂芯片制造商，

which design but do not manufacture their own chips.

他们设计芯片，但不制造芯片。

And second, foundries,

另一种是代工厂，

which manufacture chips designed by other companies.

他们生产其他公司设计的芯片。

Almost every well-known chip company today is fabless,

当今几乎所有知名的 芯片公司都没有晶圆厂。

from Nvidia to AMD to Qualcomm.

包括英伟达、AMD、高通。

These companies do not produce their own chips.

这些公司不会生产自己的芯片。

Instead, they design chips,

而是设计芯片，

and then they rely on foundries like TSMC

然后依靠台积电等代工厂

to actually manufacture those chips for them.

为他们生产芯片。

There are only three companies in the world today

当今世界上只有三家公司

that are capable of manufacturing chips

能够制造接近半导体技术前沿的芯片：

anywhere near the leading edge of semiconductor technology:

TSMC, Samsung and Intel.

台积电、三星和英特尔。

Of those three,

在这三家公司中，

only one can reliably produce the world's most advanced AI chips,

只有一家能够可靠地生产出 世界上最先进的 AI 芯片，

including chips like Nvidia's H100 GPUs.

包括英伟达 H100 GPU 这样的芯片。

That one company is TSMC.

那家公司是台积电。

As of this morning,

截至今天上午，

TSMC's market capitalization was 470 billion dollars,

台积电的市值为 4700 亿美元，

making it the 13th-largest company in the world,

使其成为全球第 13 大公司，

larger than ExxonMobil,

规模超过埃克森美孚、

JPMorgan Chase or Walmart.

摩根大通和沃尔玛。

How has TSMC become such a dominant force?

台积电是如何成为如此中坚力量的？

The short answer is that powerful economies of scale

简短的答案是，芯片制造领域 存在着强大的规模经济，

exist in the world of chip fabrication,

leading inexorably to winner-take-all dynamics.

不可避免地形成了赢家通吃的局面。

Making advanced semiconductors requires tremendous upfront

制造先进的半导体需要大量的前期

and ongoing capital expenditure.

和持续的资本支出。

In 2021, TSMC announced that it would invest 100 billion dollars

2021 年，台积电宣布将在 未来三年内投资 1000 亿美元，

over the next three years

to continue expanding its fabrication capabilities.

继续拓展其制造能力。

No other company in the world can justify that level of investment.

世界上没有其他公司 可以匹敌这个等级的投资水平。

TSMC can, because of the sheer volume of chips that it produces,

台积电可以做到， 因为它生产的芯片数量庞大，

far more than any other company in the world.

远远超过世界上任何其他公司。

A related dynamic that helps explain TSMC's unassailable position

有助于解释台积电 无懈可击地位的相关形势

is what has come to be known as the TSMC Grand Alliance.

是所谓的台积电大联盟。

TSMC has invested heavily over decades

几十年来，台积电斥巨资

to develop deep partnerships with dozens of companies

与半导体供应链中的数十家公司

across the semiconductor supply chain,

建立了深厚的合作伙伴关系，

from software providers like Cadence

从 Cadence 这样的软件提供商，

to equipment manufacturers like ASML

到 ASML 这样的设备制造商，

to chip designers like Nvidia.

再到英伟达这样的芯片设计公司。

In turn, these companies have developed their own products

反过来，这些公司根据 台积电的路线图

in accordance with TSMC's road map,

开发了自己的产品，

leading to powerful lock-in.

从而实现了坚实的锁定。

In summary, a combination of economies of scale, network effects,

总而言之，规模经济、网络效应

and unrivaled specialization have made TSMC irreplaceable

和无人能及的专业性相结合， 使台积电不可替代，

and have made the entire world deeply, precariously dependent upon it.

也使整个世界深深地依赖台积电。

This brings us to the present, delicate geopolitical moment.

这就说到了当下 微妙的地缘政治局面。

Last October,

去年 10 月，

the Biden administration took the dramatic step

拜登政府采取了戏剧性的措施，

of banning the export of all high-end AI chips to any entity in China.

禁止向中国的任何实体 出口所有高端 AI 芯片。

The rationale behind these measures was clear.

这些措施背后的理由很明确。

To leverage US control

利用美国对全球半导体供应链的控制

of the global semiconductor supply chain

as a choke point to handicap China's AI capabilities.

作为阻碍中国 AI 能力的阻塞点。

The US government is currently formulating expansions to this policy.

美国政府目前正在制定 扩大这项政策的计划。

At the same time, the US is taking steps to reduce its reliance

同时，美国正在采取措施减少

on chip fabrication facilities located in East Asia.

对位于东亚的芯片制造设施的依赖。

In late 2022,

2022 年底，

TSMC announced that it would invest 40 billion dollars

台积电宣布将投资 400 亿美元，

to build two new state-of-the-art fabs

在美国亚利桑那州 新建两座最先进的晶圆厂。

in the United States, in Arizona.

The first of these two fabs is slated to begin production in 2025.

这两个晶圆厂中的第一家 计划于 2025 年开始生产。

Bringing advanced chip production to US soil

将先进的芯片制造带到美国本土，

will help mitigate the AI industry's absolute dependence on Taiwan-based fabs.

将有助于减轻 AI 行业 对台湾晶圆厂的绝对依赖。

But the Arizona fabs will not solve everything.

但是亚利桑那州的晶圆厂 无法解决所有问题。

Their production capacity will be modest,

它们的产能有限，

representing less than five percent of TSMC's total global output.

占台积电全球总产量的不到 5％。

And the most advanced semiconductor production capabilities

而最先进的半导体生产能力

and technologies will remain in Taiwan.

和技术仍在台湾。

So where might things go from here?

那么接下来会发生什么呢？

Let's briefly consider a few possibilities

我们简短地考虑一下

on this three-dimensional chessboard.

这张三维棋盘上的几种可能性。

Let's start with optimistic scenario.

让我们从乐观的情况开始。

Taiwan's central role in the global semiconductor industry

台湾在全球半导体行业中的核心作用

is often referred to as its “silicon shield.”

通常被称为“硅盾”。

The basic theory is this:

基本理论是这样的：

because China depends so heavily on Taiwan for the chips that it needs

由于中国严重依赖 台湾生产其所需的芯片

to keep its own economy running,

来维持经济运转，

China will stop short of invading Taiwan and putting TSMC's production at risk.

中国不会进攻台湾， 也不会将台积电的生产置于险境。

And because the rest of the world is likewise so dependent on TSMC,

由于世界其他地区同样 非常依赖台积电，

the United States and other powers will go to great lengths

美国和其他大国将竭尽全力

to protect the island and defend its sovereignty.

保护台湾岛，捍卫其主权。

Under this theory,

根据这一理论，

while China may continue to build out its military

尽管中国可能会继续建设军队，

and engage in cross-strait saber-rattling,

在海峡对岸进行武力威胁，

it will stop short of kinetic action against Taiwan.

但它不会对台湾采取实际行动。

But the silicon shield is just a theory,

但是硅盾只是一种理论，

not a guarantee.

不是保障。

What would happen if China were to move decisively to retake Taiwan?

如果中国果断采取行动 夺回台湾，会发生什么？

TSMC's fabs would almost certainly be rendered inoperative.

台积电的晶圆厂几乎肯定会停产。

It is conceivable that the Taiwanese, or even the US military,

可以想象，台湾，甚至美军，

would preemptively destroy the fabs

会先发制人地摧毁这些晶圆厂，

in order to prevent the CCP

阻止中共控制这一宝贵的战略资源。

from taking control of this valuable strategic resource.

Even if the physical buildings were to remain undamaged

即使物理建筑在中国进攻后完好无损，

after a Chinese invasion,

it is unrealistic that the CCP would be able to continue operating the fabs

但中共能够继续运营晶圆厂 生产尖端芯片是不现实的。

to produce cutting-edge chips.

Keeping leading edge fabs running

保持领先晶圆厂的运转

requires ongoing and deep partnership

需要与全球半导体生态系统中的组织 建立持久、深厚的合作关系，

with organizations across the global semiconductor ecosystem,

as well as a steady inflow of materials, equipment and services.

也需要材料、 设备和服务的稳定流入。

These would be denied to an invading power.

侵略势力容不得这些。 [注：以上观点不代表译者意见]

Let me say this one more time:

我再说一遍：

if or when China invades Taiwan,

如果或当中国进攻台湾时，

TSMC's fabs will, in all likelihood, go offline.

台积电的晶圆厂很可能会停产。

This will mean that no more Nvidia H100s

这意味着世界上任何地方 都无法再生产英伟达 H100

or any other cutting-edge AI chips

will be able to be produced anywhere in the world.

或任何其他前沿的 AI 芯片。

What would this mean for the world of AI?

这对 AI 世界意味着什么？

After TSMC, the company best positioned to step up

继台积电之后，最有本事挺身而出，

and produce cutting-edge AI chips is Samsung.

生产尖端 AI 芯片的公司是三星。

Samsung is currently the only company in the world, other than TSMC,

除台积电外， 三星是目前世界上唯一一家

that is capable of producing three-nanometer chips,

能够生产三纳米芯片的公司，

today's cutting-edge technology.

三纳米芯片是当今的前沿技术。

But Samsung's production capabilities are far inferior to TSMC's today.

但是三星的产能远不如如今的台积电。

In a best-case scenario,

在最好的情况下，

it would take Samsung years to scale up

三星需要数年时间才能扩大到

to TSMC's current AI chip yields and volumes.

台积电目前的 AI 芯片产量和体量。

This brings us to America's former chip champion, Intel.

这使我们想到了美国的 前芯片领袖英特尔。

It was hardly a decade ago

不到十年前，

that Intel's chip-manufacturing capabilities were the envy of the world.

英特尔的芯片制造能力 令全世界羡慕不已。

But in recent years, Intel has fallen behind.

但是近年来，英特尔已经落后了。

The company struggled mightily in its transition to both ten-nanometer

该公司在向十纳米

and seven-nanometer node technologies,

和七纳米节点技术的过渡中苦苦挣扎，

even resorting to outsourcing some of its leading edge production to TSMC.

甚至不得不将其部分 领先产品生产外包给台积电。

Under CEO Pat Gelsinger,

在首席执行官帕特·盖尔辛格 （Pat Gelsinger）的领导下，

Intel aspires to regain its chipmaking supremacy

英特尔渴望重获芯片制造的霸主地位，

with an ambitious plan to leapfrog TSMC

通过一项雄心勃勃的计划， 旨在超越台积电，

and begin producing two-nanometer chips in 2024.

并于 2024 年开始生产两纳米芯片。

Whether this ambitious plan will actually prove achievable, however,

但是，这项雄心勃勃的计划 是否真的可以实现

remains to be seen.

还有待观察。

Before we despair too much,

在我们过分绝望之前，

let us note a couple encouraging points.

我们来说几个积极观点。

First, keep in mind that a considerable stock of AI chips already exists

首先，请记住，世界上已经 有大量的 AI 芯片库存。

in the world.

And even in a worst-case scenario, these chips would remain in use.

即使在最坏的情况下， 这些芯片也能被继续使用。

Second, while the most advanced AI chips, like Google’s TPUs or Nvidia’s H100s,

其次，尽管最先进的 AI 芯片， 如谷歌的 TPU 或英伟达的 H100，

can only be manufactured in Taiwan,

只能在台湾制造，

there are many fabs around the world,

但世界各地有许多晶圆厂，

from the US to Europe to Israel,

位于美国、欧洲、以色列，

that are capable of producing lagging-edge logic chips at scale.

能够大规模生产落伍的逻辑芯片。

Though they are far less powerful than today's leading AI chips,

尽管它们远不如 当今领先的 AI 芯片强大，

these previous-generation chips could be used in a pinch

但这些上一代芯片可以在紧要关头

to support some AI computing workloads.

用于支持某些 AI 计算工作负载。

Ultimately, though, it would be devastating for humanity

但是，归根结底，人类

to lose its ability to produce the chips

失去生产驱动当今尖端 人工智能的芯片的能力

that power today's cutting-edge artificial intelligence.

将是毁灭性的。

Progress in AI would be profoundly disrupted.

AI 的进步将受到严重阻碍。

Let us hope that diplomacy prevails.

希望世界相安无事吧。

(Applause)

（掌声）