An Updated Action Plan for Solving the Climate Crisis | Ryan Panchadsaram and Anjali Grover | TED

翻译人员: Hongming Li 校对人员: suya f.

Anjali Grover: What we've seen over the last few years

安贾利·格罗弗 (Anjali Grover:): 我们在过去的几年中看到的

is unprecedented levels of investment and innovation.

是前所未有的投资和创新水平。

But in order for us to solve the problem in time,

但是，为了及时解决问题，

we need to put pressure on our leaders to take action now.

我们需要向我们的领导人施加压力， 要求他们立即采取行动。

[An action plan for solving the climate crisis]

[一个解决气候危机的行动计划]

[An updated action plan for solving the climate crisis]

[一个最新的 解决气候危机的行动计划]

David Biello: You guys have a plan to solve climate change.

大卫-比耶洛 (David Biello): 你们有一个解决气候变化的方案.

Tell me about that.

跟我说说这个。

Ryan Panchadsaram: We do.

瑞安·潘查萨拉姆 (Ryan Panchadsaram)：我们确实有。

Back in 2020, we set out to apply OKRs to the climate crisis.

早在 2020 年，我们就着手将 OKR 应用于气候危机。

And OKRs are objectives and key results.

OKR 指的是目标和关键成果。

It's a goal-setting tool used by thousands of organizations

它是一个目标设定的工具, 成千上万的组织使用它

to reach for their most audacious goals.

以达到他们最的雄大的目标。

And so in 2021, we published a book and an action plan.

因此，在 2021 年， 我们出版了一本书和一项行动计划。

And that action plan described how to tackle the climate crisis.

该行动计划描述了 如何应对气候危机。

But it used these OKRs.

但是它使用了这些 OKR。

So 10 objectives of what we need to accomplish,

因此, 我们有 10 个 需要实现的目标,

each paired with a handful of KRs to tell us how we get there,

每个都配对了少量的关键成果, 以此来告诉我们如何去实现目标，

what we need to really do.

和什么是我们真正需要做的。

And then in 2022, we updated speedandscale.com

然后在 2022 年，我们更新了 speedandscale.com

to track how we were doing.

以追踪我们的表现。

And now, for the first time, 2024,

现在，在 2024 年,

we're setting out to answer the hard question

我们第一次开始解答一个棘手的问题,

of how are we doing in tackling the climate crisis.

即我们在应对 气候危机方面做得如何。

DB: So in 2021, you joined us in Edinburgh

DB：所以在 2021 年， 你在爱丁堡加入了我们

and gave a talk on stage with John Doerr.

并且约翰·多尔一起上台演讲。

(Video) John Doerr: There are six big objectives.

（视频）约翰·多尔： 有六个大目标。

We're going to electrify transportation,

我们将实现交通电气化，

which means stop using diesel and gas for our vehicles.

这意味着停止为我们的车辆 使用柴油和汽油。

We're going to decarbonize the grid with wind and solar and nuclear.

我们将利用风能、 太阳能和核能对电网进行脱碳。

We're going to fix our food systems.

我们将修复我们的食物系统。

And that includes eating less meat and dairy,

这包括少吃肉类和奶制品，

reducing food waste

减少食物浪费

and improving our soil health.

和改善我们的土壤健康。

Fourth, we’re going to protect nature: that’s stopping deforestation,

第四，我们将保护自然： 那就是停止砍伐森林，

protecting our oceans.

保护我们的海洋。

Fifth, we're going to clean up our materials,

第五，我们将 修正我们的材料，

how we make things like cement and steel.

像如何制造水泥和钢铁之类的东西。

And then sixth, we're going to have to figure out ways

第六，我们必须想办法

to remove the carbon that remains.

去除残留的碳。

DB: What's the update?

DB：有什么更新吗？

How have we done?

我们做得怎么样？

AG: In many ways, what we found wouldn't surprise you.

AG：从很多方面来说， 我们的发现不会让你感到惊讶。

When we looked at our key results, many of them were off-course or failing.

当我们查看关键结果时，其中 许多结果偏离了轨道或失败了。

But there was some good news.

但是有一些好消息。

And I think there's a lot of reason to pay attention to that good news.

而且我认为有很多理由 让我们去关注这些好消息。

The first is around electric vehicles.

首先是关于电动汽车。

Sales have absolutely skyrocketed.

销售额绝对猛增。

We've seen exponential growth in that category.

我们已经看到该类别 呈指数级增长。

The second is around renewables.

第二个是关于可再生能源。

Costs have come down over the last few decades,

在过去的几十年中，成本有所下降,

and they're at historic lows.

并且处于历史最低水平。

We're also seeing record deployment.

我们还看到了创纪录的使用。

And the third is around venture funding for clean tech.

第三是关于清洁技术的 风险融资。

So in 2019, it was at about 16 billion dollars per year.

在 2019 年，融资 约为每年 160 亿美元。

That number soared to about 56 billion dollars in 2021.

这一数字在 2021 年飙升 至约 560 亿美元。

And it stayed put.

而且它一直待在原处。

What all of that points to

所有这些都表明了

is what I think the most under-told story in climate.

我认为气候领域最被低估的故事。

And that is around temperature projections.

这与温度预测有关。

So if you go back about 10 years ago,

因此，如果你回到大约 10 年前，

what you would find is when looking at temperature projections

你会发现，在查看 2100 年的温度预测时，

for the year 2100,

we were looking at about 3.9 degrees Celsius.

我们看到的温度约为 3.9 摄氏度。

What that number is today is 2.7 degrees.

今天这个数字是2.7度。

That means we've made 1.2 degrees of progress.

这意味着我们已经 取得了 1.2 度的进展。

We've shaved off that doomsday scenario.

我们已经摆脱了世界末日的情景。

It's still not great.

还是不太好。

We don't want to live in a 2.7-degree world,

我们不想生活 在 2.7 度的世界中，

but we have made progress.

但我们已经取得了进步。

And I think that's really important to note

我认为这一点值得注意，

because, you know, if you look at the headlines

因为，你知道的， 如果你看一下头条，

and kind of absorb what the news and chatter is around you,

并且接收你周围的新闻和闲聊，

we've sort of moved from climate denialism to climate doomerism,

我们已经从气候否认主义 转变为气候末日主义，

and it's made strange bedfellows out of both climate activists

而这使得气候活动家和 化石燃料的利益陌路相逢。

and fossil fuel interests.

But I think what the story around temperature projections tells us

但我认为，有关 温度预测的故事告诉我们

is that we're not making as much progress as we want to be making,

我们没有取得 我们所想要的那么大的进展，

but we have made progress and we can continue to make more.

但是我们已经取得了进展, 并且我们可以继续取得更多进展。

DB: So we've gone from catastrophe to bad ...

DB：所以我们 从灾难变成了严重的...

AG: And we can do better.

AG：而且我们可以做得更好。

DB: So how can we do better?

DB：那么我们怎样才能做得更好呢？

RP: The neat thing about the tracker,

RP：追踪器的巧妙之处在于，

when you look at what red and orange mean,

当你看看红色和橙色的含义时，

it means that we are either not moving on those metrics

这意味着我们要么 没有在这些指标上取得进展，

or they're sliding backwards.

要么它们正在向后滑动。

So when you think about, whether you're an activist, a nonprofit,

因此，当你考虑一下， 无论你是活动家还是非营利组织，

you're thinking about investing in new companies,

你都在考虑投资新公司，

these are the areas to spend a lot of attention on.

这些都是值得关注的领域。

So it's things like how do you tackle beef,

比如如何解决牛肉、

methane leaks, deforestation, coal still being burned.

甲烷泄漏、森林砍伐、 仍在燃烧的煤炭等问题。

So if you're thinking about entering this climate crisis fight,

因此，如果你正在考虑参 与这场气候危机斗争，

that's where to spend your time and effort.

那就是你花时间和精力的地方。

And then there's the handful of areas which are yellow

还有少数几个 区域是黄色的，

which mean progress is being made,

这意味着正在取得进展，

but it's insufficient to get to that 2030 or 2050 target.

但这还不足以实现 2030 年 或 2050 年的目标。

And then, of course, there are the areas which are green,

当然，还有一些区域是绿色的，

which means that we're at pace and we're going to get there.

这意味着我们已经步入正轨， 我们将到达那里。

A place like electric vehicle sales is one of those.

像电动汽车销售 这样的地方就是其中之一。

And then there's the few places where you have blue,

还有少数几个 地方有蓝色，

which means achieved.

这意味着你已经成功了。

AG: What we found over the last few years

AG：我们在过去几年

is that despite the dizzying pace of innovation deployment,

中发现，尽管创新部署的步伐 令人眼花缭乱，

despite record levels of investment,

尽管投资水平创历史新高，

we're not on a net-zero pathway.

但我们并没有走上净零的道路。

And what that means is that when we look at the problem of climate,

这意味着， 当我们审视气候问题时，

we know it's time-bound.

我们知道它是有时间限制的。

We might get there eventually with innovation and investment,

我们最终可能会 通过创新和投资实现这一目标，

but we don't have eventually, as we all know.

但众所周知， 我们最终没有。

So what we need is a kind of third leg of the stool.

所以我们需要的是 类似于凳子的第三条腿。

We need innovation and investment, but we also need policy.

我们需要创新和投资， 但我们也需要政策。

We have to have the three working together

我们必须让这三者共同努力，

in order to get to a place

才能在本十年末之前将 排放量减少一半,

where we can reduce emissions in half by the end of the decade,

and get all the way to net zero by 2050.

并在 2050 年之前 一直达到净零排放。

DB: OK, so where are the big problem spots?

DB：好吧，那么最大的问题点在哪里？

Where do we need to focus our efforts?

我们需要将精力集中在哪里？

RP: Unsurprisingly,

RP：毫不奇怪，

the hard-to-abate sectors are where we're struggling the most.

难以减弱的行业 是我们最挣扎的地方。

So think concrete, think steel.

所以想想混凝土，想想钢铁。

And so when you look at concrete,

因此，当你观察混凝土时，

well to form and create it, you actually have to emit a lot.

我们要想形成和创造混凝土， 实际上你必须排放很多东西。

Like the actual process itself does.

就像实际过程本身一样。

And so you need new chemistries and ways to produce concrete and cement.

因此，您需要新的化学物质 和方法来生产混凝土和水泥。

But to fund it, the amount of venture capital going to those areas,

但是，要为其提供资金， 流向这些领域的风险投资金额

it's not where they need to be.

却不是它们需要的水平。

(Video) Tom Schuler: Cement is the glue that holds concrete together.

（视频）汤姆·舒勒： 水泥是将混凝土粘在一起的胶水。

For every ton of cement that's manufactured,

每生产一吨水泥，

almost a ton of CO2 is emitted into the atmosphere.

几乎一吨的二氧化碳将 被排放到大气中。

Now, convincing a 2,000-year-old industry,

现在，说服一个 拥有 2,000 年历史

that hasn't evolved much over the last 200 years,

且在过去 200 年中 发展变化不大的行业

并不是一件容易的事情，

is not easy,

but there are lots of new and existing industry players

但是有许多新的和现有的行业 参与者正在应对这一挑战。

that are attacking that challenge.

RP: For green steel, the actual solutions are closer,

RP：对于绿色钢铁来说， 实际的解决方案更接近，

but you actually need more capital to start deploying those factories

但实际上你需要更多的资金 才能开始部署那些能够使用

and facilities that can use and create green steel,

和制造绿色钢铁的 工厂和设施，

either using electricity or hydrogen.

无论是使用电力还是氢气。

We need not only more capital to deploy the clean alternatives,

我们不仅需要更多的资金 来部署清洁替代品，

we need more investment going into the new kinds of chemistries

还需要对新型化学品 和技术进行更多投资，

and technologies

to have those solutions exist in the next decade and so forth.

以使这些解决方案 在未来十年依此类推。

We have all the solutions today to cut half of our emissions,

如今，我们拥有减少一半 排放的所有解决方案,

and we need new ones to get all the way to net zero.

我们需要新的解决方案 才能一直实现净零排放。

AG: The other area that we need to see much greater improvement on is food.

AG：我们需要进一步改善的 另一个领域是食品。

And food is such a diffuse problem.

食物是一个非常分散的问题。

We have problems just about everywhere we look.

无论我们看到什么地方， 我们都会遇到问题。

But in particular, the methane part of the food issue is not a problem

但特别是，粮食问题中的甲烷部分 并不是一个很快就会消失的困难

that's going to go away any time soon.

(Video) Ermias Kebreab: The process by which grass and fiber

（视频）Ermias Kebreab： 在奶牛和其他放牧反刍动物胃中

is broken up in the stomachs of cows

and other grazing ruminants,

分解草和纤维的过程 有一个副产品：甲烷。

has a byproduct: methane.

A potent greenhouse gas.

一种强效的温室气体。

We have a methane problem from cows.

我们遇到了奶牛的甲烷问题。

AG: If you rewind, about three years ago,

AG：如果你回顾一下，大约三年前，

we were at the advent of the fake meat era.

我们正处于假肉时代的来临。

And what we like to say now -- well, we don't really like to say it,

而我们现在想说的是—— 好吧，我们真的不想这么说，

but it's that fake meat 1.0 failed and 2.0 can't come soon enough.

但那是假肉 1.0 失败了， 2.0 来得还不够快。

What we've seen is that that first era of innovation with plant-based proteins

我们所看到的是， 植物基蛋白创新的第一个时代

really didn't have the stickiness that we wanted it to.

确实没有我们想要的粘性。

It failed to capture the market.

它未能占领市场。

But we also have to remember

但是我们还必须记住，

that it's like any other technological innovation.

它就像任何其他 技术创新一样。

It's at a very nascent stage,

它还处于起步阶段，

and it needs time to develop so that it can improve on taste,

需要一段时间 才能改善口味、

on health and on price.

健康和价格。

The problem right now on food,

目前，食品问题

and in particular with regard to plant-based proteins,

尤其是植物性蛋白质的问题，

is that we're not seeing the investment that we would need

在于，我们没有看到

in order to make those improvements.

做出这些改善所需的投资。

In fact, over the last three years,

实际上，在过去三年中，

funding has essentially halved year over year.

资金同比基本 减少了一半。

So we've got a kind of insatiable appetite for meat, particularly beef,

因此，我们对肉类， 尤其是牛肉有一种永不满足的胃口

that we were seeing that demand from all over the world.

我们看到了 来自世界各地的需求。

And we don't have great solutions on the horizon.

而且我们没有 很好的解决方案。

So fake meat 1.0 failed, 2.0 can't come soon enough,

因此，假肉 1.0 失败了， 2.0 的问世还不够快，

and we really need to pour more dollars into this area to better the product

我们确实需要向该领域 投入更多资金，以改善产品

and get it to the next stage.

并使其进入下一阶段。

DB: Although we could also just eat less beef.

DB：尽管我们也可以少 吃牛肉。

AG: Absolutely, and we should.

AG：当然，我们应该。

RP: That recommendation there is so simple

RP：那里的建议非常简单，

yet it orients towards the gigatons.

但却以千亿人口为导向。

Like, one thing about the Speed and Scale plan is that how do you take

比如，速度与规模 计划的一点是，

你如何利用我们所有 的时间解决这个问题

all the time that we have to tackle this problem

所有时间将其

point it towards where you can get the most leverage?

指向可以获得 最大杠杆率的地方？

And so you're absolutely right,

所以你说的绝对正确，

in food, it’s going after beef; we eat less beef,

食物是追求牛肉； 我们少吃牛肉，

that is one of the primary sources of emissions in the food sector.

这是食品部门 的主要排放源之一。

So is waste and so is improving soils.

废物也是如此， 改善土壤也是如此。

And so yes, it is that simple.

所以是的，就是这么简单。

We don't have to be vegan.

我们不必是素食主义者。

Eat a lot less beef.

少吃牛肉。

DB: So what can we learn from the success stories?

DB：那么我们可以 从成功案例中学到什么？

You mentioned EVs.

你提到了电动汽车。

AG: The best news in climate, David, is cars.

AG：大卫，气候 方面最好的消息是汽车。

We've seen astronomical progress there.

我们在那里看到了天文学的进展。

We've gone from three percent of new vehicle sales being electric

我们已经从电动汽车 销量的 3％ 上升

to 17 percent.

到 17％。

That's exponential progress.

这是指数级的进步。

And one of the things that we like to say

我们想说的一件事是，如果特斯拉

is if Tesla is the spark that lit the EV revolution,

是点燃电动汽车革命的火花，

China has been the TNT.

那么中国就是TNT。

It has about 60 percent market share in EVs today.

如今，它在电动汽车中的 市场份额约为 60％。

China's leadership on this front is really something

中国在这方面的领导地位

that other countries should take note of.

确实是其他国家应该注意的。

We need other countries to step up.

我们需要其他国家加紧努力。

This can't be a one-country game,

这不可能是单一国家的游戏，

both for economic competitiveness reasons but also for the sake of the planet.

这既是出于经济竞争力 的原因也是为了地球。

DB: The batteries that kind of fuel the EV industry

DB：为电动汽车行业提供燃料的电池

can be used for many other purposes.

可以用于许多其他用途。

They get cheaper as a result of the EVs,

另一个成功案例是， 电动汽车使它们变得更便宜，

and then they're cheaper to put in your house for storage,

然后放在家里

for the other success story.

存放起来也更便宜。

AG: Absolutely.

AG：绝对可以。

RP: Well, the nice thing about that too is like in the recycling of them too,

RP：嗯，这样做的好处 也是回收它们，

you also then think about the concerns around mining.

然后你还要 考虑采矿方面的问题。

Yes, right now there's going to be a level of extraction

是的，现在必须进行一定程度的开采

that has to happen to create these batteries.

But if we can do that more responsibly,

但是，如果我们能更负责任地这样做，

if that can be spread more equitably around the world,

是否可以更公平地 将其分配到世界各地，

but then think about what happens

但请考虑一下

when you can start to recycle those batteries.

当你能开始回收这些 电池时会发生什么。

But you're right.

但是你说得对。

The other great news area is the pace of clean energy deployment, right?

另一个好消息领域是清洁能源 的部署步伐，对吧？

Right now solar and wind are at the cheapest they've ever been.

目前，太阳能和风能 是有史以来最便宜的。

They are cost-competitive to coal and gas.

与煤炭和天然气相比， 它们具有成本竞争力。

We need storage to get there as well too,

我们也需要存储空间才能到达那里，

but to your point, battery costs are dropping.

但就你而言， 电池成本正在下降。

So that's an achievable piece too.

因此，这也是一个可以实现的目标。

When you talk about the numbers,

当你谈到这些数字，

the pace of solar deployment between this year and last,

以及从今年到去年 的太阳能部署速度时，

we're talking about a 50 percent improvement

我们说的是增长了 50 ％，

at I think it's 500 gigawatts of clean energy.

我认为这是 500 千兆瓦的清洁能源。

And that's going to go up next year

明年这个数字将会上升

and continue to go up, like, that is astronomical.

并且持续上升， 这是天文数字。

And so I think part of the message you want to carry

因此，我认为 你要传达的部分信息不仅

is not only keep the hope that this is possible,

是保持希望 这是可能的，

but we actually still do need to work a lot harder to tackle this crisis.

而且我们实际上仍然需要 更加努力地应对这场危机。

DB: So do you both have hope?

DB：那么你们俩都有希望吗？

RP: The hope comes from seeing the incredible stories of innovators

RP：希望来自于看到 正在做更多事情的创新者

and policymakers and investors that are doing more.

政策制定者和投资者的精彩故事。

And then for me, where I come from, the venture capital sector,

然后对我来说， 我来自哪里，

风险投资领域，

that 50 billion going out a year in climate tech companies

气候技术公司每年 流出 500 亿美元，

means that there's I think, like 2,600 companies out there, David,

这意味着有 2600 家公司，大卫，

that are trying to build new solutions

正在努力建立新的解决方案

to tackle this crisis, and that's inspiring.

来应对这场危机，这令人鼓舞。

AG: You know, the climate story isn't yet written.

AG：你知道，气候故事还没有写出来。

And I think sometimes we tend to talk about it like it is,

而且我认为有时候 我们倾向于照原样谈论这个问题，

like we know what's going to happen.

就像我们知道会发生什么一样。

I think a lot of the record achievement and progress

我认为，我们在过去几年中 取得的许多创纪录的成就和进展

that we've seen unfold over the last few years

shows us that we are making continuous progress.

表明，我们正在取得持续的进步。

We need more speed and we need more scale.

我们需要更快的速度， 我们需要更大的规模。

But we can do this.

但是我们可以做到。

And I think to date, over the last few years,

我认为，到目前为止， 在过去的几年中，

we've really focused on one side of the equation,

我们一直专注于方程式的一面

which is scaling up renewables,

那就是扩大可再生能源

and we've made a lot of progress there.

我们在这方面取得了很多进展。

Now it's time for us to really put our nose to the ground

现在是我们真正 站稳脚跟

and focus on how we phase out fossil fuels,

专注于如何逐步淘汰化石燃料的时候了，

because we will not get to net zero unless we tackle that piece of it.

因为除非我们解决这个问题， 否则我们将无法实现净零排放。

It is not enough to do one side of this equation.

仅计算这个方程的一侧是不够的。

RP: We need to have that 1.5-degree intensity.

RP：我们需要达 到 1.5 度的强度。

But if we miss it by just a 10th of a degree, we're successful.

但是，如果我们只错过了 十分之一度，我们就成功了。

So I think the debate of is one and a half degrees possible or not,

因此，我认为争论是否可能达到一度半，

the truth is that window is closing.

事实是窗口正在关闭。

But if we really care about this problem,

但是，如果我们真的关心这个问题，

we're going to still have that same intensity.

我们仍然会保持同样的强度。