Virginia Smith: The global risk of flooding -- and how to turn the tide | TED

Transcriber:

翻译人员: Frank Xu 校对人员: Cissy Yun

I was in a village in Samoa, in the South Pacific,

我在南太平洋， 萨摩亚的一座村庄里，

and I don't remember when the rain started,

我不记得雨是 什么时候开始下的，

just that it didn't stop.

只记得它没有停。

For more than a month, 24 hours a day, it just kept coming.

超过一整个月，一天24小时， 雨就一直下个不停。

The rivers rose, and soon no one or nothing could come in or out.

河水涨高，而且很快 没人也没东西能够进出村子。

We were just there, in the flood.

我们就被困在了这场洪水里。

Have you or a loved one ever been affected by flooding?

你或你的亲人有被洪灾影响过吗？

Think about it.

思考一下。

Chances are, based on statistics,

基于统计数据，

you or someone you know has been impacted by flooding.

你或你认识的某人 很有可能受到过洪灾的影响。

There's a powerless feeling in a flood.

洪水会带来一种无力感。

You can't stop the rivers from rising.

你无法阻止河流上涨。

But for the first time, we are in a place

但有史以来第一次，

where we can shift the power paradigm of flooding.

我们现在能够逆转洪灾的威胁。

According to the World Water Resource Institute,

据世界水资源研究院的说法，

flooding is the most globally impactful of all natural disasters,

所有自然灾害中， 洪灾是全球性影响最大的,

taking between 4,000 to 5,000 lives every year.

每年导致四千到五千人丧生。

In the United States, 14.7 million properties, homes, businesses

在美国， 一千四百七十万房产、 住宅和商业用地

are at substantial risk of flooding,

面临着巨大的洪水威胁，

costing billions in economic losses every year.

每年造成数十亿美元的经济损失。

In fact, in 2010, we spent 176 billion dollars

事实上，在2010年， 我们花费了1760亿美元

on global flood recovery,

在全球洪灾重建上，

which is equivalent to roughly 20 percent of the grocery bill

这大概等于全美国 所有家庭一年伙食费的

for every family in the US for one year.

百分之二十。

And by 2080, we're projected to spend over four trillion dollars

而到2080年时，我们预计 会花费超过四兆美元

on global flood recovery.

在洪灾重建上。

Wow, that's a lot of money.

哗，那可是很多钱啊。

Now I'm talking in terms of groceries

我现在之所以用伙食费对比

because that's something I can wrap my head around.

是因为这让我能够理解这事儿。

I know how much I spend on food.

我知道我自己在吃的上花多少钱。

But that money could go to anything:

但那全美伙食百分之20的钱 可以花在任何东西上：

to the national debt, health care, education, back to the citizens.

国债、医疗、教育或返还给人民。

You can do a lot with four trillion dollars.

你能用四兆美金做好多事。

Now we're pretty good in knowing just how bad a flood will be,

现在我们能够很好地 预估每场洪灾的糟糕程度，

and we're pretty good at knowing when they're going to happen.

也可以很好地预测 洪灾的发生时间。

We've been looking to solve flooding since our earliest civilizations,

自文明诞生起， 人类就在找解决洪灾的办法，

Since Noah, we've been looking for a flood workaround.

从诺亚那时起，我们就在找 一种应对洪灾的办法。

So why is this still such a huge problem?

那为什么洪灾依旧是个巨大问题？

Because we love water, we need it, we always have to have it.

因为我们爱水，我们需要它， 我们无时无刻必须拥有它。

We build our cities next to oceans and rivers

我们把我们的城镇 建在大海和河流旁边

because being next to this critical resource

因为身处重要资源附近

makes our lives easier.

能让我们的生活轻松些。

In fact, today most of the world lives in coastal areas,

事实上，当下世界大部分人 住在海岸地区，

and more and more of the world lives in urban zones.

而且越来越多的人住在城市里。

Students and entrepreneurs seeking bright futures

寻求光明未来的学生和创业者们

are drawn to exciting opportunities in cities.

被城里激动人心的机会吸引着。

In 2008, for the first time,

在2008年，史上第一次，

half the world's population was urban.

世界一半的人口住在城市里。

By the time my little girls are my age,

等我女儿们到我现在这个年纪时，

more than 70 percent of the world's population will be urban.

世界超过百分之七十的人将住在城市里。

That's a rapid growth.

那是很快的增长。

And as cities rapidly grow, they alter their landscape,

城市在快速增长时， 也在改变地形，

resulting in more stormwater runoff,

导致更多的雨水径流，

a decrease in water quality

水质下降，

and ultimately greater impacts due to floods.

洪水因此带来的更大影响。

We seek to allay this through stormwater and floodplain management,

我们尝试由雨水及 河漫滩管理对此缓解，

but in our dynamic and constantly evolving urban environments,

但在活跃且不断变化的城市环境中，

the numbers suggest our traditional approaches just aren't enough.

数据告诉我们传统方法就不够有效。

Unfortunately, those hurt the worst are the most vulnerable.

不幸的是，受灾最重的是 最脆弱的人。

Low-income unsanctioned housing

低收入违规住宅

is often located in areas of an elevated flood risk.

常常处在洪水威胁更大的地区。

Families and communities without the ability to prevent and combat

没有能力防止和对抗 由洪灾带来的经济剧变的

the economic upheaval associated with flooding

家庭和社区

are those hurt the worst, and are hurt repetitively.

受灾反复且最严重。

This is a global challenge.

这是个全球性的挑战。

And I saw this, stranded in the village of Samoa,

而我明白这点， 被困在萨摩亚的那个村子里，

where those same floodwaters destroyed crops,

我看着同样的洪水摧毁了农作物，

flooded markets and shut down businesses.

淹没了市场还关闭了商店。

I took this picture in Vanuatu,

我在瓦努阿图拍下了这张照片，

where this recently washed out bridge had previously connected communities

这是一座被冲毁不久的桥， 之前它连接着当地社区

to their farms and schools.

去到农场还有学校。

Living in Thailand and working in Vietnam and Cambodia,

在泰国生活，还有在越南 及柬埔寨工作时，

seasonal urban flooding made daily activities like commuting

季度性城市洪灾让 出行等日常活动

not only a challenge, but risky.

变得不止困难，还很危险。

Floodwater is not clean.

洪水并不干净。

This was reinforced this summer

这点在今年夏天

when 63 million people in Southeast Asia were affected by floods.

东南亚六千三百万人 受洪灾影响时被强化体现。

I saw this working in Afghanistan,

我在阿富汗工作时看到这一点，

where the dry climate is perfect for flash floods.

那里的干燥气候非常适合山洪爆发。

Lack of resilience, rapid urban growth and flood frequency

缺乏应对能力，快速城市发展 和高频率洪灾

have unfortunately made Afghanistan one of the world's leaders

将阿富汗很不幸地变成了

in deaths per capita due to flooding,

世界因洪灾人均死亡数 最高的国家之一，

on top of dealing with decades of war.

除外它还饱受数十年的战争摧残。

This was reinforced in the spring and summer of 2020,

在2020年春天和夏天， 这个问题更严重了，

when thousands lost their homes and hundreds lost their lives

阿富汗因为洪水 导致上千人无家可归

in flooding in Afghanistan.

和上百人丧生。

And I saw this working in projects in Kenya, Sierra Leone, Paraguay, Haiti.

我在肯尼亚、塞拉利昂、巴拉圭 还有海地的项目工作时也看到这点。

But we see this in our own hometowns.

但我们在自己的家乡也能看到。

We see this in Philadelphia when we drive around after a storm

我们在暴雨后的费城中开车时能看到，

or when we cross Lancaster Avenue near Villanova.

或在横穿维拉诺瓦附近的 兰开斯特大道时。

We've seen this when the Mississippi River floods.

我们在密西西比河洪灾时看到过。

We've seen this in hurricanes like Harvey, Katrina and Sandy.

在诸如哈维、卡特丽娜 和桑迪的飓风中看过。

We saw this this summer in Isaias, and we will see this again.

今年夏天我们遇上了飓风伊萨亚斯， 我们在未来还会再次遇见这个问题。

This is a challenge that unites us.

这是一个使我们团结的挑战。

And these are challenging times, but they're interesting times.

我们处在困难却有趣的时代。

Sir Isaac Newton said, "If I've seen further,

牛顿说过， “如果我能看得更远，

it's because I've stood on the shoulder of giants."

是因为我站在了巨人们的肩上。”

And from the shoulders of giants,

而站在巨人们的肩上，

we can see the world like we've never seen it before.

我们能以前所未有的方式去看世界。

This is an image taken by the astronauts of Apollo 17.

这是一张由阿波罗17号 宇航员拍摄的照片。

They were some of the first to see our whole Earth.

他们是最早看到 整个地球的人们之一。

Our beautiful lonely planet had just been revealed.

我们美丽却孤独的 星球才露出面目不久。

By 2029, 57,000 satellites will orbit our planet,

到2029年，将有五万七千颗卫星 环绕我们的星球，

generating hundreds of terabytes of Earth data every single day.

每一天产生上百TB的地球数据。

We are alive in the data revolution.

我们活在一场数据革命中。

Data is being generated constantly, not only through satellites,

数据在被不断地产生， 不只是通过卫星，

but gauges and sensors,

还有测量仪和感应器，

through our own actions, just using our cell phones.

和通过我们自己的行动， 比如使用手机。

Scientists and engineers are learning how to harness this information

科学家和工程师们正在 学习如何驾驭这些信息

to gain novel insights into how floods work

来获取关于洪水原理

and illuminate new solutions.

和新对策的新启发。

Sitting here at Villanova,

我们在维拉诺瓦

we can predict ideal locations for infrastructure in Haiti and Kenya

就可以预判海地和肯尼亚 基础建设的理想位置

and apply artificial intelligence

并应用人工智能

to know where a river will cross its banks in Utah --

来知晓犹他州的一条河 会在哪里决堤,

from our desk.

从我们的办公桌上做到。

This is being coupled with advancements in infrastructure.

与之同行的是基础建设中的进步。

In recent decades, engineers have realized new ways

在最近几十年，工程师们发现了

to harness stormwater.

控制雨水的新方法。

Green stormwater infrastructure, like the one shown here,

绿色雨水基础建设， 比如这里展示的这个，

mitigates the flood pulse while cleaning stormwater,

在净化雨水的同时缓解洪水的冲击，

using tools from the soil and plants.

利用源自土壤和植物的工具。

Infiltration, evaporation and transpiration --

渗透、蒸发还有蒸腾作用 --

this has been shown to be effective and efficient

这已被证明 在满足联邦水里法规的同时，

in meeting federal water regulations,

是有效且高效的，

and is surprisingly cost-effective, too.

而且还非常划算的。

Although this is a fairly new type of infrastructure,

即使这是一种比较新的基础建设，

it's revolutionizing the urban landscape.

它正为城市地貌带来一场革新。

In Philadelphia in just 10 years,

在费城仅仅十年里，

thousands of green storm water systems have been implemented,

已经安装了成千的绿色水利系统，

taking the city from being one of the worst offenders of water quality

将这座城市的水质从世界最差之一

to a global leader.

变成了世界领先。

And they're not alone.

而且费城还不是唯一。

Similar programs exist in New York City, Portland, Detroit and many, many others.

在纽约市、波特兰、底特律 还有很多很多其他城市都有类似的项目。

And the success of these programs has fueled global popularity.

这些项目的成功 推动了它的全球知名度。

But the benefits aren’t just limited to stormwater

但是它的益处不只局限于雨水，

but extend to community health and well-being,

还囊括到社区卫生和健康、

environmental restoration and floodplain management.

环境重建以及洪范区管理。

So these are exciting times.

现在正是令人兴奋的时期。

These are times of hope,

我们身处充满希望的时期，

times that we have the potential to stand up to the challenge of flooding.

也是有机会对抗洪水的时代。

And here's the great part:

然后最重要的部分：

we can all be part of meeting that challenge.

我们所有人可以投身于这个挑战。

This is an issue of civil infrastructure,

这事有关民用基础建设，

and civil infrastructure is meant to serve civil societies,

而民用基建是用来服务民间社会的，

which includes all of us.

这包括我们所有人。

It includes everyone.

这包括每一个人。

So how does one get involved?

那么一个人要怎么参与呢？

Number one, use your voice.

第一，用你的声音。

We need to be investing in solutions.

我们需要为解决办法投资。

The World Resources Institute showed that for every 1 dollar spent

世界资源研究院显示： 在印度防洪建设中

on flood protection infrastructure in India,

投入的每一美金，

it resulted in 248 dollars of avoided damages.

防止了248美金的损失。

Similar results were shown in other countries.

类似的结果也出现于其他国家。

If we can invest in mitigation, we can assuage the cost of flood recovery,

如果我们可以投资建设缓解措施， 我们可以减少洪灾重建的花费，

ultimately reducing the cost of losses due to flooding.

从而最终减少洪水导致的损失。

In the United States, where much of our infrastructure is aging,

在美国，我们大部分的 基础建设在老化，

it needs to be replaced or updated.

它们需要被替换或升级。

But civil infrastructure is not one-size-fits-all.

但是民用基建不是一物万用的。

It has to meet the needs of the community that it serves.

它需要符合它所服务社区的需求。

So what are the needs of your community?

那么你的社区需要的是什么呢？

How has flooding impacted you?

洪灾对你有过怎样的影响？

Speak up, let your representatives know, take part in public hearings

说出来，让代表你的人们知道， 参加公开听证会

and be part of finding the solution for your community.

并参与到为你的社区 寻找解决办法中去。

Number two, use your actions.

第二，用你的行动。

Imagine a raindrop falls on your roof.

想象一滴雨水落到你的屋顶上。

As it rolls over your sidewalk or your yard,

在它滚到人行道或你的院子里时，

what does it take with it?

它带走了什么？

The stormwater coming from your home or your business or your community

从你家或你的店或你的社区来的雨水

impacts the rivers and the streams that it drains into.

会影响它流入的大小河流。

So make your property or your community part of the solution.

所以把你的房产或你的社区 变成解决方案的一部分。

Volunteer to help maintain green stormwater infrastructure

志愿参与到协助维护绿色雨水基建中

or create and invest in green stormwater infrastructure

或创建并为绿色雨水基建投入，

at your home or your business.

在你的家或你的生意里。

This is an example from Villanova.

这有一个维拉诺瓦的例子。

I've circled it in red because it's not that obvious.

因为它不是很显眼， 我给它画了个红圈。

This isn't a big, obtrusive piece of infrastructure.

这个设施不是很大，也不挡路。

This is an obtainable, feasible solution.

这是一种可实现且可行的解决方案。

And number three, innovate.

还有第三，创新。

Stage is set.

舞台已经搭好了。

Developments and data, computational power,

发展还有数据、电脑计算力、

water resource management

水资源管理

have opened the door for advancements.

已经打开了进步的大门。

But this isn’t just an issue for engineering;

但这不只是个工程问题；

this includes all of us.

这囊括了我们所有人。

Arts, education, biology, chemistry, urban planning, public health, governance,

文学、教育、生物、化学、 城市规划、公共卫生、政府、

business, all of us.

商业，所有人。

So what's your solution?

所以你的解决方式是什么？

What's your innovation?

你的创新是什么？

What are the next steps?

下一步是什么？

Flooding has been an issue

自我们最早期的社会起

that we've faced since our earliest societies.

洪灾就一直是个问题。

But for the first time,

但有史以来第一次，

we have the potential for which we can find solutions.

我们有能力去找到解决办法。

The damages, the cost, the lives lost.

损失、花费还有逝去的生命。

We can change that.

我们能改变它。

In our yards and our communities and our cities,

在我们的院子和社区里， 在我们的城市里，

with our voices and our actions and our innovations,

用我们的声音、行动 还有我们的创新，

we can find solutions

我们能找到解决方式

and we can shift the power paradigm of flooding.

并逆转洪灾的威胁。

Thank you.

谢谢。