How to Be an “Apocalyptic Optimist” | Dana R. Fisher | TED

翻译人员: Yang Ge 校对人员: Jinnie Sun

I call myself an “apocalyptic optimist,”

我自封“末日乐观主义者”，

but I wasn't always this way.

虽然我并不总是乐观。

I used to believe that technology could save us from the climate crisis,

我曾相信科技 可以使我们摆脱气候危机，

that all the big brains in the world

来自全球的学者

would come up with a silver bullet to stop carbon pollution,

会找到一种神奇的解决方案 来遏制碳排放，

that a clever policy would help that technology spread,

明智的政策将推进相关技术的传播，

and our concern about the greenhouse gases heating the planet

而对温室气体导致全球变暖的担忧

would be a thing of the past,

将成为历史，

and we wouldn't have to worry about the polar bears anymore.

北极熊的生存问题也不复存在。

But time and time again,

但一次又一次，

I saw that climate policy and business response

我看到气候政策和商业界的应对措施

were absolutely insufficient.

远远不够。

Our big wins have been only small steps in the right direction.

我们所谓的重大胜利， 只是朝着正确方向迈出的一小步。

Even with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act,

即使通过了《通胀削减法案》，

the US is nowhere near meeting its commitments under the Paris Agreement,

美国仍远未兑现其 在《巴黎协定》中作出的承诺，

and the US is not alone.

而且美国并不是唯一一个这样的国家。

In fact,

实际上，

the US is the number one producer of oil and natural gas

美国是目前世界上 最大的石油和天然气生产国。

in the world right now.

I'm a sociologist.

我是一个社会学家。

I study anthro shifts,

我研究人类社会的变迁，

the process of monumental social change in a warming world.

即在全球变暖背景下中 发生的重大社会变革。

My work is part of the literature

我的作品是研究文献的一部分，

that documents why governments and businesses

它解释了政府和企业为何

are failing to address the climate crisis effectively.

未能有效应对气候危机。

One of the main reasons is that fossil fuel interests

其中的主要原因之一 便是化石燃料利益集团

have a stranglehold on decision making.

牢牢控制了决策制定。

Because of their access to resources and power,

由于化石燃料利益集团 掌握着资源和权力，

they have blocked systemic changes that are needed,

他们阻止了必要的系统性变革，

promoting instead incremental policies and even climate denial.

而是推崇“渐进”的政策，      甚至进而否认气候问题。     

It's time for us to face reality, and it's a bitter pill.

现在是我们面对现实、 品尝苦果的时候了，

The question isn't will climate change affect us.

问题不在于气候变化是否会影响我们，

It's how many lives will be lost to the growing climate crisis?

而是不断加剧的气候危机 将会剥夺多少人的生命。

I still believe we can save ourselves from this crisis that humans created,

我依然相信我们能够 从这场人类造成的危机中自救，

though not all of us equally.

尽管并非所有人都能做到。

Unfortunately, the mountains of data I've collected from policymakers,

不幸的是，我从决策者、

business representatives and activists

工商界代表和活动家那里 收集的大量数据表明，

show that saving ourselves is only possible

要拯救我们自己，

with a mass mobilization of civil society

只有通过大规模的民间动员 才有可能实现，

that's driven by the pain and suffering of climate shocks around the world.

这种动员由全球气候冲击 带来的苦难与折磨驱动。

These shocks come in the form of heat waves, droughts, fires and floods.

这些冲击以热浪、干旱、 火灾和洪水的形式出现。

As climate shocks come more frequently and hit with more severity,

随着气候冲击日益频繁， 强度不断增加，

they will lead to additional social conflict

它们将引发更多的社会冲突。

as areas become uninhabitable,

一些地区变得不再宜居，

resource scarcity grows

资源短缺问题日益严重，

and people move to avoid the effects of climate change.

人们为规避气候变化的影响纷纷迁居。

So that's the apocalyptic part.

这就是我所指的“末日”部分。 

But here's where the optimism comes in.

但乐观的一面也在于此。

As our world warms

随着全球变暖加剧，

and more people experience the effects of the climate crisis firsthand,

将有越来越多的人亲历气候危机。

there's evidence that climate shocks

有证据表明， 这些气候冲击

and the conflicts they motivate

及其引发的冲突

will get people out in the street demanding action.

将促使人们走上街头，要求采取行动。

Civil society will build political pressure

民间社会将施加政治压力，

to force governments and businesses to shift away from fossil fuels.

迫使政府和企业弃用化石燃料。 

We're already seeing glimpses of this process in action.

我们也已经见证这一进程的初步展现。

In 2023, I surveyed participants

2023 年，我调查了

to the March to End Fossil Fuels in New York City.

纽约市“终结化石燃料” 游行的参与者。

Over 75 percent

在约 75,000 名参与者中， 超过 75% 的人

of the 75,000 or so activists who participated

reported personally experiencing the effects of climate change.

表示自己切身体会到气候变化的影响。

This summer,

今年夏天，

my research found that 79 percent of participants

我的研究发现，   79% 的“炎热之夏”运动参与者

in the Summer of Heat campaign to stop fossil fuel expansion

（该行动旨在终结化石燃料扩张）

had experienced climate shocks in the past six months.

在过去六个月内遭受过气候冲击。

These activists engaged in non-violent civil disobedience,

这些活动人士参与了 非暴力的抗议活动，

like singing and chanting and blocking buildings dressed as orcas

如歌唱、呼吁，扮成虎鲸来封堵大楼，

and even hot dogs --

甚至扮成热狗——

yep, hot dogs --

你没听错，扮成热狗——

to send a message to big banks like Citibank

以向花旗等大银行传达信息，

and convince them to stop funding fossil fuel projects.

说服他们停止为 化石燃料项目提供资金。

It’s time for us to all be apocalyptic optimists:

现在是我们所有人成为 末日乐观主义者的时候了：

prepared for the shocks that are coming

为即将到来的冲击做好准备，

and ready to rally as activists, disruptors and bridge builders.

并以活动者、 干预者 和联结者的身份团结起来，

Together, we can pressure the state and the market

齐心协力，我们便能 向政府和市场施压，

to adopt the changes that our communities require to survive.

要求他们采取社区存续 所需要的变革举措。

Here's my advice about how to be the change makers we need.

关于如何成为时代需要的变革者，   我有如下建议：  

First, activism and engagement must create community and solidarity.

首先，行动主义和相关活动  必须携手共建社区，凝聚团结意识，

This is how we get over that necessary threshold and mobilize the masses.

这样我们才能跨越 必要的门槛、动员群众。

I've studied countless social movements,

我对无数的社会运动进行了研究，

and the most effective and durable ones are those that bring people together

其中最为效果显著和影响深远的，

across a diversity of identities and orientations.

便是那些将不同身份、不同取向的人们 凝聚在一起的运动。

One of the reasons that the first Women's March in 2017

2017 年的第一场妇女大游行

was the largest single day of protest in US history,

之所以成为美国历史上 最大的单日抗议活动，

is because its message resonated with people

原因之一是其传达的讯息

on an individual personal level.

在个人层面上引起了人们的共鸣。

Although it was a women's march

尽管这是一次女性游行，

and the majority of participants reported

且多数参与者都表示

turning out to show support for women's rights,

自己挺身而出是为了支持妇女权利，

people of color came out

但有色人种也参与其中，

because they were also concerned about racial justice,

因为他们也关心种族平等；

and Latino participants joined

拉丁裔也加入了游行，

because they were also worried about immigration policy

因为他们也对特朗普首任政府

under the first Trump administration.

领导下的移民政策感到担忧。

To date, the climate movement does not do a great job

迄今为止，气候运动

of connecting activists across identities,

在联系不同身份、取向和

orientations or social classes.

社会阶层的活动家方面有待改进。

But it needs to.

但这一点至关重要。

Second, disruption, repression

其次，破坏、镇压

and even violence can help jolt sympathizers to take action.

甚至暴力有时能激发同情者采取行动。

The type of activism that I'm talking about

我所说的这种行动主义

is not going to be peaceful,

并不是和平的，

not because the activists are likely to get violent,

而这并非因为活动家们倾向使用暴力，

but because those in power often do.

而是因为当权者经常诉诸暴力。

Already, activists in Europe,

欧洲、英国和美国的积极分子

the UK and the United States are being threatened and criminalized,

已经面临威胁和被定罪。

with many facing jail time

许多人因阻碍交通、组织静坐、

for blocking traffic, for organizing sit-ins

or for throwing soup or smearing paint on the protective covering of artwork.

在艺术品的保护屏障上泼洒汤水 或涂抹油漆而面临监禁。

It's much harder for activists in the developing world.

对于发展中国家的活动家来说， 面临的困难要艰巨得多。

Almost 200 environmental defenders are murdered each year

每年有近 200 名环境卫士

because of their activism.

因其活动而被谋杀。

Research shows that social movements get more confrontational

研究表明，随着斗争的持续深入，

as their struggles continue.

社会运动变更为激烈。

This so-called “radical flank” involves tactics like blocking streets

所谓的“激进翼”采取包括封锁街道

and occupying public spaces.

和占领公共空间等策略。

Although these tactics are super unpopular,

尽管这些策略相当不得人心，

they are a necessary component of social movements

但它们是社会运动不可或缺的一部分，

as they expand and build capacity for social change

因为这些策略

by channeling sympathetic individuals

将富有同情心的个体

into more moderate components of the movement.

引入运动中的温和派， 进而增强整个运动推动社会变革的能力。

This process is what we call the “radical flank effect,”

这一进程就是我们所说的“激进翼效应”。

even though the tactics are frequently not particularly radical.

尽管这种策略通常并非特别激进，

Sympathizers are also mobilized to participate

它们让同情者亲眼目睹 针对和平抗议者的暴力行为，

by witnessing violence against peaceful protesters.

有效地动员了同情者参与其中。

During the US civil rights movement,

在美国民权运动期间，

watching violence against activists

目睹激进分子遭受的暴力，

motivated members of the broader population

激发了更多普通民众

to join the movement.

投身于该运动。

In 2020,

在 2020 年，

when activists protesting the murder of George Floyd in Washington, DC,

于华盛顿特区白宫附近抗议 乔治·弗洛伊德被暴力执法致死的活动家

near the White House were tear-gassed,

遭到催泪瓦斯袭击，

the crowds that turned out the following day were much larger.

次日，参与抗议的人数激增。

Third, you don't have to be an activist to make a difference.

第三点，你不必成为活动家 便能有所作为。

We don't all need to get arrested protesting,

我们并不需要全因抗议而被捕，

but we must all work together

但我们必须共同努力，

to make our communities more resilient

让我们的社区在面对 气候冲击时更具韧性。

in the face of climate shocks.

As the climate movement builds and grows and builds capacity,

尽管气候运动的发展壮大积聚了力量，

the climate crisis rages on.

气候危机仍在持续蔓延。

If we work to cultivate resilience in our communities,

如果我们努力增强社区的抗灾能力，

we can help to limit the human suffering that will come as the world warms.

就能减轻全球变暖给人类造成的灾难。

To be more resilient and to recover more quickly

为了更好地抵御气候变化的影响，

from the effects of climate change,

迅速从气候变化的影响中恢复，

service corps programs are popping up across the United States.

服务队项目正在美国各地兴起。

When Hurricane Maria devastated the island of Puerto Rico in 2017,

当飓风“玛丽亚”于 2017 年重创     波多黎各岛时，    

AmeriCorps deployed its members to help with disaster response,

AmeriCorps派遣成员 协助救灾工作、

rebuilding and reconnecting food delivery to communities across the island.

重建家园、恢复全岛社区的食物供应。

Similar programs are currently underway in mountain communities

类似的项目也在山区社区

and others affected by hurricane Helene and hurricane Milton.

和受飓风“海伦妮” 与飓风“米尔顿”影响的社区进行，

This type of program is also popping up across Europe

此类项目同样在欧洲

and Africa to build resilience.

和非洲涌现， 以增强应对灾害的能力。

They support young people as well as older adults,

它们不仅为年轻人提供支持， 也为老年人提供帮助，

training them to weatherize homes, install rooftop solar,

教会他们对房屋气候适应性改造， 安装太阳能屋顶，

remove debris from forested areas

清理林区的枯枝败叶等杂物，

and to build more dense civic networks

建立更紧密的市民网络，

to support communities when disaster hits.

以在灾难来临时为社区提供援助。

These programs are much more effective when they connect people where they live,

当这些项目能够融入 人们的居住地和工作场所，

work and experience climate shocks.

共同面对气候冲击时， 它们的效果会大大提升。

Because so much more is possible when we already know one another.

因为彼此熟识能激发更多可能，

Rather than parachuting in strangers during times of crisis.

而非在危机时刻才突然介入。

As unfair as it may seem, the future is up to us.

尽管这似乎不够合理， 但未来取决于我们。

These times will not be easy or pain-free.

这些时刻不会轻松，也不会无痛。 

But unless we get realistic about the path that we are on,

但是，如果我们不能清醒地面对现实，

too many of us will be caught off guard.

太多人会措手不及。

Some days it's hard to be an apocalyptic optimist.

有时候，成为一名 “末日乐观主义者”并不容易。    

More climate records are broken.

气候记录一次次被刷新，

Extreme weather hits.

极端天气事件愈发频繁，

Or another round of climate negotiations takes place

或者，又一轮气候谈判

and ends in a petrostate,

在石油国家举行，

with no measurable effects whatsoever

却没有任何实质性的效果，

on the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

对大气中温室气体的浓度没有丝毫影响。

But then I see communities pushing back.

但是后来我看到了社区的反击。

They vote to phase out natural gas and local buildings.

他们投票决定逐步淘汰天然气， 停用部分地方建筑；

They pressure banks to stop investing in fossil fuel infrastructure,

他们向银行施压，要求他们停止投资 化石燃料基础设施；

or they work with their friends and neighbors

他们与朋友和邻居携手合作，

to muck and gut buildings destroyed by flood or fire.

清理和修复被洪水或火灾损毁的建筑。

As I witness these local people investing their time and energy

当我目睹当地人投入时间和精力，

in building communities that are more capable

致力于打造一个更强大的社区，

of withstanding the shocks that are yet to come,

一个能够抵御未来冲击的社区，

I'm optimistic once again.

我又一次感到乐观。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）