How to Harness Abundant, Clean Energy for 10 Billion People | Julio Friedmann | TED

翻译人员: Chen Xuan 校对人员: Lening Xu

The question I am most commonly asked about climate change

关于气候变化，我最常被问到的问题是，

is should I be optimistic or pessimistic?

我应该持乐观态度还是悲观态度？

I thought about this question a lot.

我经常考虑这个问题。

My career has been at the intersection of climate science, technology,

我的职业生涯一直处于气候科学、技术、

policy and industry,

政治和工业的交叉点，

mostly working for you,

主要为大家工作，

at one point working for a US president

也曾经为美国总统工作，

and now as Chief Scientist and Chief Carbon Wrangler

现在是Carbon Direct的首席科学家 兼首席碳管理员。

at Carbon Direct.

At that intersection,

在这个十字路口，

I think about that question in terms of energy flows

我从能量流动和碳减排方案的角度 来思考这个问题。

and carbon abatement options.

So I ponder a variant of that question,

这个问题的延伸问题，

how much energy should 10 billion people use?

100 亿人需要消耗多少能源？

I was first prompted to think about this question

我首先想到这个问题是由

by the late, great Richard Smalley.

已故的伟大的 理查德·斯莫利（Richard Smalley）提出的。

Nanotechnologist, Nobel Prize-winning chemist,

纳米技术专家、诺贝尔奖得主化学家，

co-discovered buckyballs.

共同发现了巴克球。

Total mensch.

非常有男子气概。

He gave an important and influential talk almost exactly 20 years ago,

大约整整 20 年前， 他发表了一次重要而有影响力的演讲，

in which he laid out the top ten challenges to humanity:

他在演讲中阐述了 人类面临的十大挑战：

energy, water, food, poverty, the environment, health.

能源、水资源、食物、 贫困、环境、健康。

And then he said something kind of obvious.

然后他说了 一句显而易见的话。

All of these are energy challenges.

所有这些都是能源挑战。

Water is the most straightforward.

水资源挑战是最简单的。

Three quarters of the Earth's surface is covered with water.

四分之三的地球表面被水覆盖。

It's too salty to drink or use.

但它太咸了，没法饮用或使用。

The primary cost of desalination is energy.

海水淡化的主要成本是能源。

Food. I like food.

食物。我喜欢食物。

Eighty percent of the food consumed around the world

全球消费的食物中的 80％

moves through modern agriculture.

通过现代农业实现。

That means synthetic fertilizers, combines that harvest,

这意味着合成化肥，以及收割、 冷藏、运输——它们都需要能源。

refrigeration, shipping -- they’re all energy.

Climate. That's my day job.

气候。那是我的日常工作。

How do we go from 54 billion tons of greenhouse gases every year

我们如何快速地从每年 540 亿吨温室气体

to less than zero very quickly?

减少到零以下？

And so on.

依此类推。

Abundant clean energy can make progress against this whole list.

丰富的清洁能源 可以在整个清单上取得进展。

So Richard estimated what he thought it would take

因此，理查德估算了

for 10 billion humans to live more or less like the United States.

他认为 100 亿人按照类似美国一样 生活需要多少能源。

And his answer was: 60 terawatts.

他的答案是：60 太瓦。

Keep that number in your mind: 60.

记住这个数字：60 。

For reference, today the world uses about 26 terawatts of energy.

作为参考，当今世界 消耗的能源约为 26 太瓦。

About eight terawatts of that are electricity.

其中大约 8 太瓦是电力。

Now the urgency of climate means that we have to --

现在，气候变化的紧迫性意味着我们必须

For all of the energy we use today and all future energy

保证我们现在使用的所有能源 和未来的所有能源

really has to be abundant, sustainable and cheap.

都必须丰富、可持续和廉价。

Abundant, available where you want it, when you want it.

丰富即随时随地可用。

Everybody should have energy,

每个人都应该有能源，

including the three billion people who use less electricity

包括用电量少于 我冰箱消耗的电量的三十亿人。

than my refrigerator uses.

However, it should also be sustainable.

但是，它也应该是可持续的。

We can't emit a lot of greenhouse gases. We can't trash nature.

我们不能排放大量的温室气体。 我们不能破坏大自然。

Ideally, it's cheap,

理想情况下，它需要便宜，

a lot cheaper than today.

比现在的价格便宜很多。

Maybe half or a third of what the US pays.

可能是美国价格的一半或三分之一。

That would be 20 dollars a megawatt-hour or a dollar a gigajoule.

那将是每兆瓦时二十美元 或一吉焦一美元。

And remember it's energy, not electricity.

记住这是能源，而不是电力。

We also need heat for heavy industry.

我们还需要热能来满足重工业的需求。

We need clean fuels,

我们需要清洁燃料，

things like clean hydrogen or sustainable aviation fuels.

例如清洁的氢气 或可持续的航空燃料。

Well, that seems hard.

好吧，这似乎很难。

And it is.

而且确实如此。

But if you know that’s what you need or what you want --

但是，如果你知道这就是你所需要 或想要的——

abundant, sustainable, cheap energy --

丰富的、可持续的、廉价的能源，

we have a new question to ponder.

那么我们就有一个新的问题需要思考。

How do we get 60 terawatts of that to 10 billion people?

我们如何向 100 亿人 提供这 60 太瓦？

Well, the good news is

好消息是，

every day the Earth receives 163,000 terawatts of energy from the sun.

地球每天从太阳获得 16.3 万太瓦的能量。

About half of that bounces back to space,

其中大约有一半会反射回太空，

but about 80,000 terawatts arrive at the Earth in a form we can use.

但大约有 8 万太瓦以我们可以 使用的形式到达地球。

For example, the air, land and oceans convert some of that

例如，空气、陆地和海洋 将其中一部分

into about 870 terawatts of wind.

转化为大约 870 太瓦的风能。

These are bigger numbers than 60,

这些数字比 60 还要大，

and we've got more than solar and wind.

而我们拥有的不仅仅是太阳能和风能。

We have geothermal, we have hydro, we have nuclear.

我们有地热，有水能，有核能。

There's other kinds of clean energies,

还有其他种类的清洁能源，

and some of the best resources are, in fact, in the global South.

事实上，一些最好的资源 位于地球的南部。

These places are not simply future climate victims.

这些地方不仅仅是 未来气候变化的受害者。

These places are latent energy superpowers.

这些地方也是潜在的能源超级大国。

And we've made some good starts.

我们已经取得良好的开端。

Let's look at Chile,

让我们来看看智利，

blessed with abundant hydro, solar and wind.

拥有丰富的水能、太阳能和风能。

They can make green electrons on demand.

它们可以按需制造清洁电力。

A lot of those green electrons

这些清洁电力中有许多

are going to get turned into hydrogen and ammonia,

将被转化为氢气和氨气，

the key ingredient for fertilizer,

这是化肥的主要成分，

itself a good fuel and a great way to move clean energy around the world.

也是很好的燃料，也是在全球范围内 运送清洁能源的好方法。

Now Chile has prioritized using these green electrons and hydrogen

现在，智利已优先 使用这些清洁电力和氢气

to decarbonize its own grid

对自己的电网进行减碳，

and for domestic energy use, for things like mining.

并用于采矿等本土能源消耗活动。

They are also building infrastructure.

他们还在建设基础设施。

They're building out the grid and ports for trade and commerce.

他们正在为贸易和商业 建设电网和港口。

This prioritization, this emphasis on infrastructure

这种优先顺序， 这种对基础设施的重视

is the difference between a neocolonial economy

是新殖民主义经济

and a new economy built on abundance.

和建立在富足能源基础上的新经济 之间的区别。

Let's go to Kenya,

让我们去肯尼亚，

home of the second most productive wind farm on Earth in Lake Turkana,

图尔卡纳湖是全球第二高产的风电场，

home of the second largest geothermal program on Earth

也是地球上第二大地热项目的所在地，

and future home of the Great Carbon Valley,

也是大碳谷的未来所在地，

where this abundant, sustainable, cheap energy

这种丰富、可持续、廉价的能源

will create whole new industries and pull CO2 out of the sky.

将创造全新的产业， 并从大气中减少二氧化碳。

Now those are good starts.

这些都是很好的开端。

But we have far, far to go.

但是我们还有很长的路要走。

Hashtag “WeNeedMore.”

（社交媒体标签） #“我们需要更多”

Specifically, we need new investment vehicles,

具体而言，我们需要新的投资工具，

and we need development mechanisms

我们需要新的发展机制

that recognize the opportunity of abundance

认可丰富能源的新机遇，

as opposed to being built on the scarcities of the past.

而不是建立在过去的稀缺资源基础上。

My favorite example, Namibia.

我最喜欢的例子，纳米比亚。

A young, rapidly growing nation full of promise.

一个充满希望的年轻、快速发展的国家。

One of the very driest places on Earth.

地球上最干旱的地方之一。

Namibia has excellent solar and wind resources,

纳米比亚拥有优质的太阳能和风能，

in particular in the southwest.

尤其是在西南部。

Unsurprisingly, a giant 10-billion-dollar project

毫不奇怪，一个耗资 100 亿美元的大型项目正在进行中，

is bouldering along

that will land 3,000 megawatts of solar on the ground,

该项目将在地面上安装 3,000 兆瓦的太阳能，

3,000 megawatts of wind

3,000 兆瓦的风能，

that will feed 3,000 megawatts of electrolyzers

并为 3,000 兆瓦的电解装置供电，

that will make clean hydrogen and ammonia for export to Europe,

从而生产清洁的氢气和氨 并出口到欧洲，

and European countries and European industries

而欧洲国家和欧洲工业界

are providing the long-term offtakes.

将提供长期承购。

In addition, the port of Lüderitz is getting an upgrade

此外，吕德里茨港正在升级，

and there's going to be jobs and wealth creation in Namibia.

将为纳米比亚创造 新的就业机会和财富积累。

I love this project. What's not to like?

我喜欢这个项目。有什么不喜欢的？

Namibia gets wealth and jobs.

纳米比亚获得财富和就业机会。

Europe gets clean, secure energy supplies.

欧洲获得清洁、安全的能源供应。

Still something's off.

当然还存在一些问题。

That's it. This project is ten times bigger

仅此而已。

这个项目是纳米比亚整个电网的十倍。

than Namibia's whole grid.

And this project will not substantially build out

而且该项目不会实质性地

the infrastructure or energy access.

建设基础设施或能源供应。

No refrigerators, no new course as a nation.

这是一个没有冰箱， 没有新的发展的国家。

Now again, this is a great project.

现在，这是一个很棒的项目。

But how can we do even better?

但是我们怎样才能做得更好呢？

Not just here, but everywhere.

不仅仅在这里，而且在全球其他地方。

How do we harness abundant, sustainable, cheap energy for all?

我们如何为所有人利用丰富、 可持续、廉价的能源？

Well, there's three ingredients to that bouillabaisse.

法式乱炖有三种成分。 （这个方案有三部分）

And if you plan to harvest abundance,

如果你想获得丰富的清洁能源，

you act differently in each.

那么要采取一些不同的行动。

First out of the gate -- infrastructure.

首先——基础设施。

We need transmission lines, roads, ports, railroads, fueling stations.

我们需要输电线路、 道路、港口、铁路、加油站。

We're not moving bits.

我们不是在移动少量的，

We're moving molecules and electrons.

我们在移动大量的分子和电子。

We need this infrastructure

我们需要这样的基础设施

to get electricity to the people of Namibia

来为纳米比亚人民提供电力，

and to get clean fuels out of ports like Mombasa or Cartagena.

并从蒙巴萨或卡塔赫纳等港口 出口清洁燃料。

These projects take time, money and people.

这些项目需要时间、 金钱和人力。

We need to develop the human capital

作为这些投资项目的一部分， 我们需要在几十年内开发人力资本。

as part of these investment projects for decades.

Because remember, children, for the rest of our lives,

请记住，孩子们， 在我们的未来时间里，

every week is infrastructure week.

每周都是基础设施周。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Second out of the gate -- innovation.

第二点——创新。

We need much more energy in many places, much cheaper.

我们有许多地方 需要更多更便宜的能源。

That's an innovation agenda.

这需要不断的创新。

Now you all are familiar with the profound and rapid decreases in cost

现在你们都知道太阳能光伏发电的成本

associated with solar photovoltaics.

经历了极其快速的下降。

That was a combination of sustained investment in innovation,

这是结合了创新的持续投资，

plus market-aligning policies,

与市场接轨的政策，

plus mass-manufacturing.

以及大规模制造才做到的。

For solar, that was the United States, Germany, China and others acting together.

对于太阳能而言，那是美国、 德国、中国和其他国家共同行动。

Well, if that's the recipe, we can do that again.

好吧，如果这是秘诀， 我们可以再做一次。

We're already doing it

我们已经在电动汽车

with electric vehicles and clean hydrogen production.

和清洁氢气生产方面做到了这一点。

We can certainly do it by turning electricity into fuels

我们当然可以通过将电力转化为燃料

and pulling CO2 out of the sky.

并从大气中减少二氧化碳来做到这一点。

In fact, the CO2 and clean hydrogen will be the next generation

事实上，二氧化碳和 清洁氢气将成为下一代

of sustainable maritime and aviation fuels.

可持续的海运和航空燃料。

We can go way farther with solar, with perovskites,

我们可以走得更远， 有了太阳能，有了钙钛矿，

with multi-exciton technologies like supermolecules

有了超分子等多激子技术，

we can double or even triple the output.

我们可以将产出提高一倍甚至三倍。

We just had fusion!

我们刚刚实现了核聚变！

(Laughter)

（笑声）

In California!

在加州！

Now to harness that abundance, an objective should be cost reduction,

现在，要利用这种丰富的清洁能源， 一个目标应该是降低成本，

maybe 50 or even 80 percent cost reduction.

或许降低 50％ 甚至 80％ 的成本。

And those objectives should be part of the goals

而这些目标应该成为

of the institutions that run innovation,

创新机构目标的一部分，

for example, the US Department of Energy's Earthshot programs.

例如美国能源部的Earthshot计划。

Third,

第三，

investment.

投资。

Specifically, we need to move away from single-project finance

具体而言，我们需要从单一项目融资

to more systemic investment mechanisms,

转向更具系统性的投资机制，

one that reimagine risk across multiple projects,

这种机制可以重新构想多个项目，

multiple investment cycles and multiple years,

多个投资周期和多年份的风险，

some of the goals of the audacious and overdue Bridgetown Initiative.

这是大胆又具前瞻性的 布里奇敦倡议的一些目标。

In addition, the full value chain should be part of the investment thesis.

此外，整个价值链 应成为投资理念的一部分。

Revenues come from many sources,

收入来源很多，

including the infrastructure itself,

包括基础设施本身、

the equipment sales, the new products

设备销售、新产品

and the improvements for health and welfare.

以及健康和福利的改善。

Global positive investment,

全球性的正向投资，

global positive growth that yields solid returns.

全球性的正向增长， 带来可观的回报。

Now in the case of Chile,

现在，就智利而言，

Japan is a key partner

日本是关键合作伙伴，

and Japanese firms will make money on turbines, electrolyzers, ships,

日本企业将在涡轮机、电解装置、船舶、

infrastructure, debt.

基础设施和债务上赚钱。

Now one green hydrogen project is not enough money to do that.

现在，一个绿色氢气项目的资金 不足以做到这一点。

You need, you know --

你知道，你需要——

to rebuild shipyards and supply chains, you need more than one project.

重建造船厂和供应链， 你需要多个项目。

So the Japanese government has in fact backed dozens of projects.

因此，日本政府实际上 已经支持了数十个项目。

And these are anchored by bilateral agreements

这些都以智利和日本之间

between Chile and Japan

双边协议为基础，

that include long-term offtakes.

其中包括长期承购。

Multiple projects and long-term offtakes

多个项目的开展和长期承购关系

change the value propositions for both countries.

改变了两国的价值主张。

You're not feeding a set of shareholders, you're feeding two nations.

你不是在养活一群股东， 而是在养活两个国家。

And Chile has maintained its commitment to this now

现在智利通过连续三届政府 一直保持了对此的承诺。

through three successive governments.

So let's go back to Namibia.

让我们回到纳米比亚。

Here's the grid today.

这是今天的电网。

Instead of conventional project finance for one project,

与一个项目的传统项目融资不同，

what would a 100-billion-dollar set of projects look like?

一组价值 1000 亿美元的项目 会是什么样子？

Well, for starters, you'd sure have to build out the grid a lot.

好吧，首先，你肯定 必须大量建设电网。

You'd have to add solar and wind, maybe supersize some projects,

你必须增加太阳能和风能， 也许可以扩大一些项目的规模，

maybe add some hydropower.

也许还要增加一些水力发电。

Instead of temporary construction jobs in Lüderitz,

与其在吕德里茨做临时施工工作，

you'd have a permanent construction industry there,

不如在那里拥有长期的建筑产业，

and you'd be building electrolyzers all over Namibia.

你将在纳米比亚各地建造电解装置。

That would anchor supply chains across Sub-Saharan Africa,

这将巩固撒哈拉以南 非洲的供应链，

and you'd train a generation of workers.

并将培训出下一代专业人员。

That would be big enough for desalination,

这将足以进行海水淡化，

bringing fresh water to the desert and to the communities

为沙漠、社区 和新产业提供水资源。

and to the new industries.

Big enough for hospitals, universities, regional logistics hubs.

足以容纳医院、大学、 区域物流中心。

Big enough to encourage good governance

足以鼓励良好的管理，

and, best of all, low-cost clean fertilizer

最重要的是，低成本的清洁化肥

that could be used to make food in Namibia sold there and to its neighbors.

可以用于在纳米比亚生产食物并 出售给本国及其邻国。

In effect, Namibia could be a global anchor for food and fuel,

实际上，纳米比亚可能 成为全球粮食和燃料的支柱，

and the investors will get a solid return.

投资者将获得可观的回报。

Now that's a future to be optimistic about.

现在，这是一个乐观的未来。

Because let's be honest, whether I'm optimistic or not,

因为说实话， 不管我是否乐观，

the work looks the same.

结果看起来都一样。

So,

因此，

let's reimagine that first question.

让我们重新构想第一个问题。

It doesn't matter whether I'm optimistic or you're optimistic.

无论是我乐观 还是你乐观都没关系。

It matters if we're optimistic.

我们是否乐观很重要。

Collective action, building together is what makes the difficult possible

集体行动、共同建设 使困难成为可能，

and nourishes the soul through a mission and purpose.

并通过使命和目标滋养灵魂。

And we have a lot to be optimistic about.

我们还有很多值得乐观的地方。

Infrastructure, innovation and investment

基础设施、创新和投资

are commitments to the future anchored in optimism.

是基于乐观情绪下对未来的承诺。

We also have the tools and tech we need.

我们还拥有所需的工具和技术。

We know what to do

我们知道该怎么做，

and we can act not out of anger or fear,

我们不能出于愤怒或恐惧采取行动，

but out of generosity and common purpose,

而是出于慷慨和共同的目标，

bringing aspiration and humility together.

将抱负和谦卑结合在一起。

We're going to build a thriving, vibrant,

我们将建立一个繁荣、充满活力、

exciting world full of generosity and full of potential

令人兴奋、充满慷慨和潜力的世界，

that's going to be built on the back

这一切将建立

of infrastructure innovation and investment

在基础设施、创新和投资的基础上，

that will harness the abundant, sustainable, cheap energy

利用丰富、可持续、廉价的能源，

that is our planet's endowment.

这是我们地球的禀赋。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause and cheers)

（掌声和欢呼）