Can Europe Win the Age of AI? | Thomas Dohmke | TED

翻译人员: Yip Yan Yeung 校对人员: Bruce Wang

Vlad Gozman: Obviously people know you as the CEO of GitHub,

弗拉德·古兹曼 （Vlad Gozman）：

显然大家都知道 你是 GitHub 的 CEO，

you're at the helm of what I would say is the most pivotal tool

你掌握着可以说是 对全球开发者最关键的工具，

for developers worldwide,

and also a player early on in the AI game with Copilot.

也是早早凭借 Copilot 进入 AI 板块的玩家。

But before we go into all that and GitHub,

但是在我们展开讨论 这一点和 GitHub 之前，

I want to go back a bit.

我想往后退一步。

I'm curious,

我很好奇，

something what people might not know is how did you get here?

人们可能还不清楚 你是怎么走到这里的？

托马斯·多姆克 （Thomas Dohmke）：

Thomas Dohmke: I took a plane from Stuttgart to fly here.

我从斯图加特乘飞机过来的。

But I think you're asking about my life's journey.

但我觉得你在问我的人生经历。

I was born in East Berlin in 1978,

我 1978 年出生于东柏林，

and so for the first 12 years of my life,

在我 12 岁以前，

I didn't really have access to computers.

我并没有接触到计算机。

There was a Robotron, an East German clone of a Z80 I think,

有一台机器人， 应该是 Z80 的东德复制品，

in the geography lab that we were allowed to hack a little bit on.

放在一个地理实验室里， 我们可以捣鼓一下。

And then I bought a Commodore 64 in the early '90s.

然后我在 90 年代早期 买了一台 Commodore 64。

And, you know, it's been forgotten what that was like, right?

现在都被世人遗忘了，对吧？

I had to buy like a yellow book.

我得买一本黄页一样的书。

It was literally called the big Commodore 64 book.

就叫《Commodore 64 大书》。

And then you taught yourself coding, and there was no internet to go, right?

你得自学编程， 而且没有互联网，对吧？

There was no forum, no Reddit, no GitHub.

没有论坛，没有 Reddit， 没有 GitHub。

You had to either figure it out yourself,

你要么得自己搞明白，

or you had to go to computer club on Wednesday

要么得周三参加计算机俱乐部，

and hope there's another nerd there that knows the answer to your question.

寄希望于那儿有个电脑迷 能回答你的问题。

In 1998, I started university at Technical University in Berlin.

1998 年， 我入读柏林的一所技术大学。

And, you know, one of the big benefits

一大好处就是

was that you had a landline internet connection from there

你可以使用拨号上网，

that didn't cost any money compared to AOL and CompuServe.

比起美国在线（AOL）和 CompuServe，不花一分钱。

And I bought SUSE Linux in the bookstore

然后我从书店买了 SUSE Linux，

to get into the world of open source.

进入了开源的世界。

And obviously, I found lots of other nerds on the internet

当然我在网上找到了很多电脑迷，

to ask all the questions in the newsgroups,

在新闻组，也就是 Usenet 网上 回答各种问题。

the Usenet.

And you know, went through my career journey.

说说我的职业生涯。

And when the iPhone SDK came out in 2008, I thought,

2008 年 iPhone SDK 推出时，

it's time to do something new.

我想是时候做点新玩意了。

I quit my job at Bosch

我从博世（Bosch）离职，

at the height of the financial crisis in late 2008,

当时正处 2008 年末 经济危机顶峰时期，

to become an independent software developer

成为了一名独立软件开发者，

that builds iPhone and Android apps.

写一些 iPhone 和安卓应用程序。

And of course, you know, through the cloud,

当然，经由云端，

I was able to also distribute all my apps

我能分发所有 app，

and then later build a platform called Hockey App

之后做了一个 叫做 Hockey App 的平台，

that was acquired by Microsoft in 2014.

于 2014 年被微软收购。

And that then moved me from Stuttgart all the way to Seattle,

我从斯图加特一路搬去了西雅图，

where I got lucky in 2018 to be in the right time, right place

很幸运能在 2018 年恰合时宜地

to be part of the GitHub acquisition.

参与了 GitHub 的收购。

And ultimately, you know, be here on stage as the GitHub CEO.

最终，作为 GitHub CEO 登上这个舞台。

VG: What a journey.

VG: 神奇的旅程。

It all has led to this moment.

一切都在为此刻铺垫。

(Applause)

（掌声）

But, you know, it raises an interesting point, right?

但是这也说到了 有趣的一点，对吗？

You've been successful here in Europe up to a point.

你在欧洲达到了一定的成就。

And then you left.

然后离开了。

I mean, your further steps were even more successful, I would argue.

虽然可以说接下来的几步更成功。

But you left.

但是你离开了。

So my next question is, you know,

所以我的下一个问题是，

how do we keep the next Thomas Dohmke in Europe?

我们怎么能把下一位 托马斯·多姆克留在欧洲呢？

What does Europe need to do?

欧洲需要做些什么？

TD: Microsoft made me leave.

TD: 是微软让我离开的。

You have to say it like that.

只能这么说。

Although, being honest,

虽然老实说，

it also was always a dream of mine to live on the West Coast,

我一直梦想住在西海岸，

in the ’90s, when I was a kid,

那是在 90 年代 我还是个孩子的时候，

I felt I was born too late to be part of the home computer revolution.

遗憾出生太晚， 错过了家庭电脑革命。

But then obviously now where we are today,

但显然走到今天，

it's clear that there was another one with mobile,

很明显有移动端革命，

another one with cloud,

有云端革命，

and now we are in one with AI.

现在我们来到了 AI 革命。

And so I think, you know, maybe if Microsoft buys a German company today,

于是我想，也许如果 微软现在买了一家德国公司，

they would just say you can work from home as hybrid work

他们说，你们就在家办公 当作混合办公吧，

or remote-only work.

或者只需要远程办公。

It’s much more prevalent than it was 10 years ago in 2014.

比起 10 年前的 2014 年 可普遍多了。

That said, though, you know, if I look at my hometown in Germany,

虽说如此， 如果反观我德国的家乡，

I can come up with three things that are definitely lacking.

我可以说出绝对不足的三点。

And the first one is school and schooling,

第一点是学校和教育，

which, it's ridiculous to me

我觉得很离谱，

that we don't teach kids in first grade how to code

我们都不会在孩子 一年级的时候教他们编程，

like, we teach kids physics,

我们会教孩子物理、

biology and chemistry that you almost never use in life anymore.

生物、化学，而你这辈子 可能都再也用不上它们。

But we don't teach them how to build software for their smartphones

但是我们不会教他们 如何为他们的手机、

and for their computers that we all use day in and day out, right?

电脑编写软件，而我们所有人 日日夜夜都在用，对吧？

Like, think about that for a second.

想一想吧。

These are the most important devices in our lives.

它们都是我们生活中 最重要的设备。

You know it because you can barely meet anyone

你心知肚明， 因为你几乎再也看不到任何人

that doesn't have their phone in their hands anymore.

手里不拿着手机。

Whether it’s in the subway or on a plane or at work.

乘地铁、坐飞机、工作时。

So I'd say schooling needs to dramatically change.

所以我想说学校教育 必须做出巨大改变。

And, you know, it's easy to blame the system and think about,

很容易怪体制，这么想，

oh, the politics have to change something.

哦，政治必须改变些什么。

I think it starts with us as parents to really encourage the schools

我认为要从我们做父母的开始 真正鼓励学校

长远思考、打破常规地思考，

to think ahead and think outside the box

of what frontal lessons are and used to be when we went to school.

前沿课程是什么， 我们上学时它又是什么。

The second one is start-up and the start-up ecosystem.

第二点是初创公司和创业生态。

It's so hard to found a company in Germany and Austria

想在德国、奥地利及欧洲多国 创立公司太难了。

and in many European countries.

The GmbH has to go away.

GmbH（德奥等国的 股份有限公司）必须滚蛋。

That's just the fact.

事实就是如此。

You see a lot of German start-ups

你可以看到很多德国初创公司

that the first thing they do is they go on Stripe Atlas

做的第一件事就是 跑去 Stripe Atlas，

and click in a Delaware LLC,

点击“特拉华州 有限责任公司（LLC）”，

because that's much easier to collect angel investments, right?

因为这样招募天使投资 要简单得多，对吧？

We have so much regulation in Europe,

欧洲有太多条条框框了，

GDPR, you know, DSA, DMA, you name it,

通用数据保护条例（GDPR）、 数字服务法（DSA）、

欧盟数字市场法案（DMA）等等，

that start-ups need to follow instead of building cool shit, right?

初创公司得遵守这些规定， 而不是去做一些好玩的玩意，对吧？

Like that's I think the biggest issue we have

我认为这就是最大的问题，

where we need to build a new ecosystem ...

我们得创建一个全新的生态……

Because we know from the innovator’s dilemma

因为我们从创新者困境得知

that disruption is coming from start-ups.

颠覆来自初创企业。

The big incumbents cannot create disruption.

现有的巨头无法带来颠覆。

There's exceptions, of course.

当然有例外。

And, you know, hopefully GitHub and Microsoft are seen as one.

希望 GitHub 和微软会是例外。

But the regular mode is that start-ups are the companies,

但是常见的模式就是初创公司、

the founders are the ones that are pushing society forward.

创始人们才是那些 推动社会进步的公司和人。

And then lastly, you know, infrastructure.

最后一点就是基础设施。

You know, my hometown, on their web page,

我的家乡的网页上

they're saying 95 percent of all households have broadband internet.

声称 95% 的家庭有宽带上网。

But what they mean is 50 Mbit.

但他们指的是 50 Mb 的网速。

That's not broadband.

那可不是“宽带”。

When my kids stream Netflix or YouTube and play Minecraft with their friends

要是我的孩子们上网 看 Netflix 或 Youtube，

和朋友们玩《我的世界》，

and have a WhatsApp chat open all at the same time,

同时开着 WhatsApp 聊天，

I can no longer, you know,

我就根本无法拨入 Zoom 会议 和你一起准备这场演讲。

join the Zoom call with you to prepare this session.

And I think this is where the European Union ultimately needs to go in

我觉得这就是欧盟最终需要介入

and have an infrastructure package,

并提供一套基础设施之处，

and not bridges and streets and all that.

而不是桥梁、街道等等。

That's that's good too.

那也不错。

But like broadband internet, fiber everywhere.

但是提供宽带网络、 铺满光纤更好。

VG: Well, some might argue that regulation is good.

VG: 有些人会说法律法规挺好的。

How do you stand on that?

你怎么看？

TD: Regulation is good if you're a big company

TD: 法律法规可以是好的， 如果你是一家大公司，

with a big law department and big enterprise customers,

有很大的法务部门、 大型的企业客户，

because then you can go into a sales process and say,

因为你可以进入销售流程，说：

here, I check all the boxes,

“都给你通过了，

so you don't have to argue with the legal team and the DPA.

这样你就不用和法务部 和数据处理协议（DPA）纠缠了。

Instead, you can just, you know,

不如更快地签单吧。”

go through the sales process much quicker.

But it's not good for open-source innovation.

但是这对于开源创新可不是件好事。

It's not good for small start-ups

对小型初创公司不是好事，

that do not want to spend all their money on billable hours for, you know,

他们不想把所有钱都花在请人咨询上，

consulting company or for a law firm.

请咨询公司或律师事务所。

And so there needs to be exceptions in those regulations.

所以必须有例外法规。

Innovation needs to be focused on enabling researchers,

创新必须致力于让研究人员、

open-source developers and start-up founders

开源开发者和初创公司创始人

to move really quickly.

快速进步。

And then if they reach a certain size,

直到他们达到一定规模，

when they actually become relevant to the system.

最终对整个系统有些分量的时候。

Same with banking, right?

银行业也是一样，对吗？

When they become relevant to the system,

直到对整个系统有些分量，

that's when the regulation, the strongest regulation needs to apply.

才应该有法律法规、 最严苛的法律法规。

VG: And do you see, you know like,

VG: 你发现了吗？

we lived through this really fast-paced,

我们处在由 AI 带来的 非常、非常快速的环境里。

really, really fast-paced environment with AI.

Do you see it now leveling the playing field internationally?

你觉得它现在把全球 都拉到同一起跑线上了吗？

And again, with a bit of a perspective on Europe.

我们再次稍微聚焦在欧洲。

How does that change the game for a small company,

这会如何改变小型公司面临的局面，

a start-up from Germany, for instance?

比如一家来自德国的初创企业？

TD: I think it changes the game from two sides

TD: 我认为它从两方面改变了局面，

and one is actually on my shirt,

其中一方面就在我的衣服上，

it says, “Copilot speaks my language,”

写着：“Copilot 会说我的语言。”

because you can use Copilot, ChatGPT,

因为你能和 Copilot、ChatGPT、

almost all these AI chatbots

几乎所有的 AI 聊天机器人，

in the language you grew up with.

用你从小说的语言对话。

Here in Austria and Germany, it's German, right?

在奥地利和德国， 就是德语，对吧？

Most six-year-olds, seven-year-olds, first-, second-graders,

很多六七岁、一二年级的孩子，

they speak mostly German or Croatian or Italian, Spanish,

他们基本上说的是德语、 克罗地亚语、意大利语或西班牙语，

while the open source and the software industry

但是大多数开源和软件行业都说英语。

are mostly English speaking.

And so if you want to learn coding

如果你想学习编程，

because you have already played Super Mario or Minecraft,

因为你玩过《超级马力欧》 或者《我的世界》，

you don't want to learn English first,

而你并不想先学英语，

what you want to do is build a little game

你只想做个小小的游戏，

because that's what humans want to do, they want to create something.

因为这就是人类想做的事， 人类想创造一些东西。

And so they can now approach this by just asking in German,

如今他们可以直接用德语问：

how do I create a snake game or pong game

“如何做出一款贪吃蛇游戏、 乒乓球游戏？”

or how do I build a Minecraft extension?

或者“如何做一个《我的世界》插件？”

And they don’t need parents at home that have a technical background, right?

他们不需要有技术背景的 家长在家，对吧？

Like, if you don't have anyone at home without AI

如果在你卡住的时候家里没人， 又没有能帮你的 AI。

that can help you when you're stuck.

And that's the most important moment when you learn something

你在学习的过程中 最重要的时刻就是

is when you're stuck, how do you unstuck yourself

当你卡住了，你怎么让自己脱困，

so you're not frustrated and just throw it away

而不是受挫了，把它丢到一边，

and go back scrolling through TikToks?

回去刷抖音？

That's the moment where AI is really helpful,

这就是 AI 真的帮得上忙的时刻，

and that's where I believe there's a huge democratization going to happen.

这一刻我相信 大规模的普及将要到来。

And it's already happening in countries like India or Brazil.

已经在印度或巴西这样的国家出现了。

The second piece is, you know,

第二个方面是

Europe has slept through the cloud transformation,

欧洲已经在云转型中无所作为了，

like, most European countries are way behind

大多数欧洲国家 都在云转型中远远落于人后。

on the cloud transformation.

If you look in, you know,

如果你调查一下，

the Dräger report that came out a couple of weeks ago,

几周前发布的 德尔格（Dräger）报告中，

of the top 50 tech companies, only four are European.

50 强科技公司， 其中只有 4 个来自欧洲。

And I'm sure most of you cannot actually name those four.

我相信大多数人说不出这四家是谁。

I can only name one, SAP.

我只说得出一家，SAP。

And in the last 50 years,

在过去的 50 年里，

there has been not a single European company that has been founded

没有成立一家欧洲公司

that has reached more than 100 billion in market capitalization,

达到超过 1000 亿市值，

while the six trillion-dollar companies in the US

而美国市值 6 万亿美元的公司

all have been founded in the last 50 years.

全都是在过去 50 年里创立的。

That's where the opportunity with AI is, we get a fresh start.

这就是 AI 的机遇所在， 我们可以洗心革面了。

We don't need to catch up on the cloud

我们不需要追赶云的进步，

as much as we need to be all-in on AI.

但我们得全力下注 AI。

And it starts all with you, right?

由你们开始，对吗？

We can always blame it on the politics and on the system

我们可以总是怪政治、怪体制、

and on our bosses.

怪老板。

It starts with all of us embracing this new technology.

但是要由我们每个人开始 拥抱这项新技术。

I'm assuming that's why you're here today.

我默认这就是你们此行的目的。

And hopefully tomorrow you're using some AI in your life,

希望明天， 你能在生活中用上一些 AI，

or figuring out how AI works

或者搞清楚 AI 是怎么回事，

and how you can leverage AI in your career

你怎么在工作中、 初创公司里、团队中运用 AI。

or your start-up or your team.

VG: Yeah, thank you for that.

VG: 嗯，谢谢。

I want to push back, though, a bit,

但是我想稍微反驳一下，

because it sounds, and probably this is a criticism

因为听起来……也许这是

硅谷总是听到的批评，

that Silicon Valley usually gets, right,

it sounds techno-optimistic, right?

听起来是“技术乐观主义”，对吧？

What about --

那么……

A comparison that I've always heard is,

我总是听到一种对比，

you know, we're living through perhaps a new industrial,

我们正在经历 也许是一种新的工业……

a new type of industrial revolution, right?

一种新型的工业革命，对吧？

When I think back on the Industrial Revolution, the actual one,

我回顾工业革命，真正的工业革命，

it had really heavy short-term consequences.

它产生了很多短期的结果。

So what would you say to somebody

那你该对那些叫你 “技术乐观主义者”的人说些什么呢？

who would call you a techno-optimist?

TD: What's wrong with being an optimist,

TD: 当个“乐观主义者”有什么错呢？

would be my first response.

这就是我的第一个反应。

Especially as a German,

尤其是作为一个德国人，

I think, you know, being optimistic is separating me from the masses.

乐观让我与众不同。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

I think we, as humans, have the challenge that, you know,

我们作为人类，有这么一个困难，

we love to focus on the day by day.

就是我们喜欢关注日常。

And the day by day,

每一天，

whether it's in our lives or in the stock market,

无论是我们生活中的，还是股市，

often has lots of ups and downs,

总是会有起起伏伏，

and we focus heavily on the downs

我们会尤其关注“伏”，

because those are impacting us emotionally much more than the ups.

因为它们远比“起” 更能影响我们的情绪。

But if we actually zoom out 10 years, 20 years, 30 years,

但如果我们放眼 10 年、20 年、30 年，

or if I go back to my grandfather's generation, you know,

或者回到我祖辈的年代，

my father was born in 1939,

我父亲生于 1939 年，

what life was back then,

那时的日子，

there is no question that life has gotten massively better.

无疑生活会大大改善。

Like, massively.

“大大”改善。

Like, life in Europe, in Germany, in Austria,

欧洲的生活、 德国、奥地利的生活，

everywhere here and everywhere around the world

这里的每一处，世界各地，

has gotten so much better.

都大大改善了。

Our lives are so much more comfortable,

我们的生活舒服得多了，

our houses are so much warmer, we have food available.

我们的房子暖和得多， 我们有东西吃。

And obviously with technology like smartphones,

显然有了智能手机、互联网 和 FaceTime 这样的科技，

the internet and FaceTime,

it's also much easier to travel all around the world,

去向世界各地要简单得多，

to live on the other side of the planet.

住在地球的另一边也简单得多。

You know, I moved my family almost 10 years ago to Seattle,

大约 10 年前， 我举家迁往了西雅图，

and we call our parents every weekend on FaceTime.

每个周末我们都会给 我们的父母打 FaceTime 视频。

That wasn't possible,

这在 100 年前 人们移居美国时是不可能的。

you know, when people immigrated to the United States 100 years ago.

It's indisputable that the world has gotten better.

毋庸置疑世界更好了。

And I think we should have optimism that we can make it better ourselves.

我觉得我们应该乐观地相信 我们自己也可以让它变得更好。

But of course, it starts with us, that's what I said earlier.

但当然，如我之前所说， 由我们开始。

You know, we need to all have the mindset of: “I can change the world.

我们得有这样的信念： 我可以改变世界。

I can make the world a better place.”

我可以让世界变得更好。

My first job after university was with Mercedes-Benz.

我大学毕业后的第一份工作 是在梅赛德斯-奔驰集团。

So back then DaimlerChrysler, and their slogan is “The best or nothing.”

当时还是戴姆勒-克莱斯勒公司， 他们的口号是“唯有最好”。

I feel like Europe needs to go back to this.

我觉得欧洲得回到这一句。

We want to be the best in everything.

我们想在各个方面拔尖。

We want to be the best in soccer, right?

我们想在足球上拔尖，对吧？

And we are kind of like the best in Formula One

我们差不多是 F1 （一级方程式赛车）的顶尖，

because almost all the Formula One teams are from Europe.

因为几乎所有 F1 队伍都来自欧洲。

But let's apply that model to all the things that we're doing

但是我们把同样的模式 沿用到我们做的所有事、

and all the ideas that we're pursuing,

我们追求的所有想法、

all the companies that we're building,

我们创立的所有公司上，

and I think we're going to create naturally a better world

我认为那我们就会创造 一个长期来看更美好的世界。

in the long run.

VG: Well, I sure hope so.

VG: 我当然如此希望。

I want to pick up on something you said earlier

我想再谈谈你之前说到的一点，

about us teaching our kids to code very early on.

就是从很小的时候 就教我们的孩子编程。

Now AI is changing the game there as well, right?

AI 也改变了这个领域，对吗？

It influences the way we code,

它影响了我们编程的方式，

perhaps, though, making coders obsolete.

虽然可能会让程序员被淘汰。

So what would you say if like, I would argue

你对此会怎么看？如果我这么说，

OK, you develop technology that makes coders obsolete.

你开发了一种淘汰程序员的技术。

Why should we teach our children to code?

那我们为什么还要教我们的孩子编程呢？

TD: If you look back at my journey that I described earlier,

TD: 如果回顾刚才我描述的经历，

we could have asked that question at every point of the way, every year.

我们在发展过程中的每时每刻、 每一年都可以问这个问题。

You know, you could have asked me the question when we went

我们从磁带发展到软盘， 再到硬盘，都可以问这个问题。

from cassette tapes to floppy disks to hard drives.

When we went from punch cards

从 80 年代我在我妈妈办公室 看到的打孔卡，

that I first saw in my mom's office in the '80s

to assembly language Basic

到汇编语言 BASIC，

and all of a sudden, higher programming languages.

到一刹那出现的更高级的编程语言。

When we went from no open-source at all and we build it all from scratch,

我们从完全没有任何开源， 从零开始开创开源，

or we typed listings from computer magazines.

或者我们输入计算机杂志上 刊登的程序代码。

And most of the listings weren't actually code,

大多数程序代码根本不是代码，

they were checksums

只是校验和而已，

because you could put more checksums into the box on the page,

因为版面栏位里 可以多放下一些校验和，

to the internet and open-source components.

再到互联网、开源组件。

Today, no startup anywhere around the world,

如今，世界各地 没有任何一家初创企业，

and no big company anywhere around the world

世界各地没有任何一家大公司

is starting a new project without leveraging open-source components, right?

会在启动一个新项目 不使用开源组件，对吗？

Open-source operating system like Linux,

开源操作系统，如 Linux，

open-source editors like VS Code,

开源编辑器，如 VS Code，

open-source container technology like Docker and Kubernetes,

开源容器技术， 如 Docker 和 Kubernetes，

thousands of open-source libraries.

成千上万的开源库。

When you start a new React project, you immediately have hundreds,

如果你创建了一个新的 React 项目，不说上千个，

if not thousands of libraries in your dependency graph.

依赖库里也瞬间有了上百个库。

And that means millions of developers have contributed to your project

也就是说几百万个开发者 为你的项目做出了贡献，

because they built all these open-source libraries,

因为他们创建了这所有的开源库，

they made your life easier.

他们让你更轻松了。

But they haven’t replaced the demand for software developers.

但他们并没有取代 对软件开发者的需求。

In fact, if you are in software development

相反，如果你从事软件开发，

or if you're in a company that has software developers,

或者你就职的公司有软件开发者，

I bet you anything all your feature requests take way too long

我相信你会感觉你提的 所有功能需求都要等很久很久。

for your personal perception.

Because the developers have effectively two backlogs.

因为开发人员其实有两套待办事项。

They have the innovation backlog.

他们有创新型待办事项。

You know, their own ideas,

也就是他们自己的想法、

their product manager's ideas, their customer feedback,

他们产品经理的想法、 客户的反馈，诸如此类，

all these kind of things,

the innovation that drives the company forward.

推动公司进步的创新。

And that's an endless backlog.

这是无穷无尽的待办事项。

I will never be done with the GitHub backlog.

我永远做不完 GitHub 的待办事项。

I will just retire and give up

我会退休、放弃，

and somebody else comes in and takes over with my team.

然后有人会出现 和我的团队一起接手。

And then on the other side we have you know, the tech debt,

另一方面还有技术债、

the compliance requirements,

合规要求、

all the European regulations and the California regulations,

欧洲的法律法规、加州的法律法规、

security, privacy, accessibility,

安全、隐私、可访问性、

all these other things that you also have to do

各种你不得不做的事，

because if you don't do them, your customers don't trust you anymore,

因为如果你不做， 你的客户就再也不会信任你，

you have a security issue,

你有安全问题，

and you have to go to the press

你得和媒体说你把 所有的客户数据都搞丢了，

and tell them that you lost all the customer data,

which is often driving a company close to bankruptcy.

通常会让一家公司濒临破产。

And so you have to balance those two backlogs, and they’re both endless.

于是你就得平衡这两套待办事项， 它们都是无穷无尽的。

And you can’t only do this one, and you can’t only do that one.

你不能只做这里的事， 也不能只做那里的事。

So you need to use AI to bring it a little bit down, further down,

所以你得利用 AI 稍微减少一些、减少很多，

so developers can actually innovate more.

这样开发人员可以做出更多的创新。

And now with AI they no longer have to only do back end and front end.

有了 AI，他们不只需要 做前端和后端。

They have to do back end and front and AI and offline evals and online evals

他们得做后端、前端、AI、 离线评估、在线评估、

and prompt engineering and new models left and right.

提示词工程、新模型，全部包揽。

So I'm sure there's a bunch of sessions for that as well.

我相信有很多这些话题的讲座。

And so I don't think we are running out of work.

因此我也不觉得我们会没活干。

I think we are drowning in software.

我觉得我们都被软件淹没了。

Marc Andreessen said, “Software is eating the world,”

马克·安德森 （Marc Andreessen）

在十年多以前就说过： “软件正在吞噬世界。”

over 10 years ago.

Software has eaten the world.

软件已经吞噬了世界。

And we as software developers are drowning in code.

我们作为软件开发者被代码淹没了。

And we're still managing COBOL from the '50s and '60s at the same time.

与此同时却还在维护 50 年代、 60 年代的 COBOL 语言。

(Applause)

（掌声）

VG: So what you're saying is with AI, even more work for developers.

VG: 你想说的是有了 AI， 开发者甚至要干更多的活。

And I know GitHub is sort of aiming for a world

我知道 GitHub 旨在打造一个

where even more developers are enabled to work and cooperate,

让更多开发者 更有能力工作和合作的世界，

maybe share a bit of that vision.

和我们分享一下这个愿景吧。

How would we get to a world

我们该如何实现这样一个世界，

where we have not a few hundreds of millions of developers,

假设我们不止有数亿开发者，

but over a billion developers, for instance?

而是有超过十亿开发者呢？

TD: At GitHub, one of our most important values,

TD: GitHub 有一个 非常重要的价值观，

if not the most important value,

如果它不是最重要的唯一一个，

is that we have the saying,

那就是把开发人员放在 我们每一个决策、

as we always put the developer first in every decision we make,

every product design, every process.

每一个产品设计、 每一个流程的第一位。

My HR team is using GitHub.

我的 HR 团队在用 GitHub。

My legal team is using GitHub,

我的法务团队在用 GitHub，

which also means red lines are much easier

也就说明修改法律文档更简单了，

because it’s just a diff and a pull request.

因为只需要一个 diff（差异对比） 和一个 pull request（拉取请求）。

And that comes with, you know,

于是我们就会有这么一种信念： 如果你想把开发者放在第一位，

the conviction that if you want to put developers first,

that means you want to make developers happier.

那就意味着你想让开发者更快乐。

Because happy developers are productive developers,

因为快乐的开发者 就是高效的开发者，

productive developers are innovating and building great software.

高效的开发者会创新， 会写出出色的软件。

And so Copilot is following that vision,

Copilot 遵循着这样的愿景，

because we really built copilot back in 2020

因为我们在 2020 年 做出了 Copilot，

because we wanted to make our developers a little bit more productive,

因为我们想让我们的开发者 更高效一点，

a little bit more happy.

更快乐一点。

And we believe, you know,

我们相信，

that journey will continue throughout the next years.

这个旅程会在接下来几年持续下去。

If you think about the original Copilot,

回想一下原始版 Copilot，

it was just predicting the next line of code, multiple lines of code,

它只会预测下一行代码、几行代码，

complex algorithms, often just boilerplate,

复杂的算法，通常只是样例代码，

you could explain code,

可以解释代码，

you can now document that method,

现在可以记录下这个方法，

you can write test cases.

写测试用例。

And you can all do that in natural language.

只用自然语言就能完成。

And that building block of a line of code

组成一行代码、 几行代码的构建单元

or multiple lines of code

is going to grow as the AI becomes more powerful.

会随着 AI 越来越强大 越来越丰富。

We will have smaller agents that write a whole module or a class,

我们会用更小的智能体 写出整个模块或类，

something that tests all our software so we don't have to write test cases.

测试我们所有软件的工具， 这样我们就不用写测试用例了。

I don't know many developers that love writing test cases.

我可不认识什么 喜欢写测试用例的开发者。

It's more like, how little test cases can I get away with

更常见的是随便写一些测试用例，

so I pass code review and can move on to the next cool thing.

通过代码审查， 这样就能去做下一件好玩的事。

So we really are on that journey of sparking new ideas,

这个旅程中， 我们激发出了新想法，

of enabling people to write a short prompt and getting a little mini game,

让人们写出一小段提示词， 获得一个小游戏、

a little web page, a little module,

一个小网页、一个小模块、

a piece of code that pushes them forward,

一段让他们前进的代码，

that lets them stay in their creative flow.

让他们可以保持他们创作的思路。

I know many people that use Copilot both in their work life, you know,

我认识很多人 在工作中使用 Copilot，

from Monday through Friday,

从周一到周五，

but also are telling me, “This is so great for my hobby projects that I work on

他们也会告诉我： “我能在周日下午做业余项目时

on a Sunday afternoon, because I only have limited amount of time

用上它真是太棒了， 因为我的时间很有限，

and getting back on my hobby is hard

if I constantly have to go to my browser and look things up,

如果总是去浏览器查东西、

查怎么做，而不是待在这个工作流里， 那回去做业余项目就太难了。”

how things are done instead of just staying in that flow."

So we want to spark ideas, you know,

我们想激发想法，

we want to keep developers in the flow,

我们想让开发者待在工作流里，

and we want to enable, you know, a billion people on this planet,

我们想让地球上的十亿人，

60-year-olds, you know, 20-year-olds, 50-year-olds,

60 岁的人、 20 岁的人、50 的人，

anyone who wants to learn coding, to learn coding.

让任何想学编程的人学习编程。

VG: That's kind of a great future, if you ask me.

VG: 我觉得这是美好的未来。

Now, before we go, I know we're running out of time,

在我们结束前，我知道时间不够了，

but, I'm curious.

但是我很好奇。

I mean, a lot of people know GitHub here.

在座很多人都知道 GitHub。

A lot of people know Copilot.

很多人都知道 Copilot。

I'm curious if you can share what comes next.

我很好奇接下来会是什么。

What is GitHub working on?

GitHub 在做些什么呢？

TD: So we have our conference coming up,

TD: 我们马上就会举行会议，

and we have a lot of exciting announcements

会有很多振奋人心的发布，

that I cannot share with you today.

但是今天无法与大家分享。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But I think, you know,

但是我认为，

it goes along that journey that I mentioned

它会延续我提到的旅程，

that we will, you know, introduce a new product

我们会发布一个新产品，

that lets you spark new ideas

激发你的新想法，

and where you can explore those ideas and build little cool apps.

让你探索这些想法， 做出一些酷炫的小应用。

VG: Great, so a nice teaser.

VG: 很棒，不错的剧透。

Looking forward to finding out more.

很期待更多消息。

Thank you a lot.

非常感谢。

TD: Thank you.

TD: 谢谢。