A Playbook for Financing Climate Solutions | Nili Gilbert and David Blood | TED

翻译人员: Fanglin ren 校对人员: Bruce Wang

Nili Gilbert: The reality is that while financial capital has been moving

妮莉·吉尔伯特：现实情况是，尽管 金融资本一直在

towards addressing the climate transition,

朝着应对气候转型的方向发展，

it’s not moving fast enough,

但其流动 速度还不够快，

and it’s not moving at the scale that we need.

也没有达到我们需要的规模。

So it's really great to be here with you today

因此，今天

to talk about why we think that's happening,

能和大家一起讨论我们为什么 认为会发生这种情况，我们认为存在

what we think some of the challenges are

哪些挑战

and how to address it.

以及如何应对这些挑战真是太好了。

So what are you seeing?

那你看到了什么？

David Blood: Well, maybe we'll start with a little bit of background.

David Blood：嗯，也许我们会从一点背景开始 。

The United Nations estimates

联合国估

that we will need something in the order of three to four trillion dollars per year

计，要在2050年之前实现 全球经济脱碳 ，我们每年将需要大约三

to globally decarbonize our economy through 2050.

到四万亿美元。

This shift -- and I know you’ve talked about this as well --

这种转变 —— 我知道 你也谈过这个问题 ——

will be the most significant shift in economic history.

将是经济史上最重 大的转变。

We think it will be more extensive than the industrial revolution

我们认为它将 比工业革命更广泛

and probably faster than the digital revolution.

，可能 比数字革命更快。

And the good news is we are seeing funds flowing to climate solutions.

好消息是，我们看到 资金流向气候解决方案。

The different news is that, as you said, it's not nearly enough.

不同的消息是， 正如你所说，这还远远不够。

It's not going to the hard-to-abate sectors.

它不会流 向难以减弱的领域。

And importantly, it is not going to the Global South.

重要的是，它不会流 向全球南方。

In fact, we think that we will likely miss

事实上，我们认为我们很可能会错过17个 可持续发展目标中的

every single one of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals.

每一个目标。

We’ve been at this problem for almost 20 years,

我们解决这个问题 已有将近20年了

and we've seen enormous incremental change.

，我们已经看到了 巨大的渐进式变化。

But we need now transformational change in our economies,

但是，我们现在需要在经济、企业 和金融机构

in our businesses and our financial institutions.

中进行 变革性变革。

NG: Why has this been so hard?

NG：为什么这么难？

DB: Well, it's a good question, and it's complicated for one thing.

DB：嗯，这是一个很好的问题 ，但有一点很复杂。

But I think there's probably four fundamental points.

但我认为可能有 四个基本观点。

The first is the finance sector is critical,

首先是金融 业至关重要，

but it does rely on businesses and entrepreneurs to lead the way.

但它确实依赖企业 和企业家来引领潮流。

We are financing their ideas and their businesses.

我们正在为他们的想法 和业务提供资金。

Secondly, we do need change in public policy

其次，我们确实需要改变 公共

and change in regulation.

政策和改变监管。

Thirdly, with the investment community,

第三，在投资界，

we don't yet have the tools to truly evaluate

我们还没有真正评估公司或行业

whether a company or an industry is decarbonizing.

是否 正在脱碳的工具 。

We're making progress, but there's still work that we need to do.

我们正在取得进展， 但仍有工作要做。

And lastly, we need to fundamentally change

最后，我们需要从根本 上改变

the way people think about capital allocation.

人们 对资本配置的看法。

And by that, we mean we need to create the capabilities

我们的意思是， 我们需要让投资者具备

for investors to understand the impact of their investments

在传统 风险和回报框架

within a traditional risk and return framework.

内了解 其投资影响的能力。

NG: All of this sounds really challenging. Is there any good news?

NG：所有这些听起来都非常具有挑战性。 有什么好消息吗？

DB: There is. And we're both optimists.

DB：有。而且我们都是乐观主义者。

NG: That's right. DB: That's a good thing.

NG：没错。 DB：这是一件好事。

A good place to be.

一个不错的地方。

First of all, there’s no question there’s enough capital.

首先，毫无疑问， 有足够的资金。

There's something in the order of 150 trillion dollars of institutions

大约有150万亿美元的机构

who've committed to net zero.

承诺实现净零排放。

Now, we know that that's an overstatement,

现在，我们知道这是夸大其词，

but the point is 150 trillion, 100 trillion, that's a lot of money.

但关键是150万亿， 100万亿，这是一大笔钱。

We have the money to make the transition.

我们有钱进行过渡。

Secondly, there are no legal barriers --

其次，投资者没有法律障碍——

we'll come back to this in a little bit --

我们稍后再谈这个问题——

for investors to allocate capital to sustainable solutions.

投资者可以将资本分配 给可持续的解决方案。

Thirdly -- and we're seeing it yesterday, we're seeing it today --

第三—— 我们昨天看到了， 今天也看到了——

there are amazing entrepreneurs,

有很棒的企业家，

amazing business people,

很棒的商界人士，

and the technology cost downcurves are happening even as we speak.

而且就在我们讲话的时候，技术成本的下降趋势 正在发生。

And as Al [Gore] mentioned yesterday, public policy is also on the move.

正如艾尔 [戈尔] 昨天提到的那样， 公共政策也在不断发展。

We have seen the Inflation Reduction Act.

我们已经看到了《降低通货膨胀法》。

It is the most significant climate legislation in the United States

这是美国

and indeed probably the world.

乃至世界上最重要的气候立法。

And the Europeans are responding aggressively

欧洲人正在积极应对经济脱碳，

to decarbonize their economy

because of the tragic war in Ukraine.

因为乌克兰的悲惨战争。

And lastly, as we both know, finance can change.

最后，正如我们都知道的那样， 财务可以改变。

When my dad was a portfolio manager at Ford Motor Company

当我父亲 在60年代末70年代初

in the late 60s, early 70s,

在福特汽车公司担任投资组合经理时，

the way he made investments was based upon limiting risk.

That was their job.

那是他们的工作。

But then as time went on,

但是随着时间的推移，

people began to realize that if you could be paid for risk,

人们开始意识 到，如果你能获得风险报酬，那

perhaps that would be a better way to deploy capital.

也许 是更好的资本部署方式。

And so whole industries developed,

因此，整个行业都得到了发展，

like the venture capital industry, like the growth equity industry

比如风险投资行业， 比如成长型股票行业

and, of course, the high-yield marketplace.

， 当然还有高收益市场。

So finance can change,

因此

and that's going to be a very important part of the of the solution.

，财务可以改变，这将是解决方案中非常重要 的一部分。

Now we've been talking about sort of the macro picture.

现在我们一直在 谈论宏观画面。

You're working on the ground. What are you seeing?

你在地面上工作。 你看到了什么？

NG: Well, you know, one of the reasons that I think

NG：嗯，你知道，我认为

that the finance pathway towards net zero is so challenging

通 往净零的金融之路如此具有挑战性的原因 之一

is because it touches every other pathway,

是因为它触及了所有其他途径，

because finance encompasses the whole global economy.

因为金融涵盖 了整个全球经济。

And so the finance transition means supporting the transitions

因此，金融转型 意味着支持每个

of individual sectors

国家的各个部门的

of every country

过渡，

and always paying attention

并时刻关注

to the needs of individual communities

在我们完成这项工作

as we get this done.

时，要满足各个社区的需求。

But while we're doing and supporting this work on the ground,

但是，尽管我们在实地开展 并支持这项工作，但归根结底，

our pathway still has to add back up to a Paris-aligned pathway

我们的路径仍然 必须回到一条

at the end of the day.

与巴黎一致的道路。

And so bringing together this top-down and bottom-up effort

因此，将 这种自上而下和自下而上的努力结合起来极具

is extremely challenging.

挑战性。

But I think that the energy sector itself,

但我认为，正如你

which as you know,

所知，能源行业本身在许多方面

is in many ways the other key sector for driving the transition,

是推动转型的另一个关键领域，在实践中 为这一框架

provides a really good example of this framework in practice.

提供了一个很好的例子 。

So the International Energy Agency, the IEA,

因此，国际 能源署（IEA）告诉我们，

has told us that, as of last year,

截至去年，清洁能源的

finance for clean energy is actually equal with finance for fossil fuels,

融资实际上等于化石燃料 的融资，

which sounds like good news, right?

这听起来像是个好消息，对吧？

But the challenge is that by 2030,

但挑战在于，到2030年，

we actually need finance for clean energy

我们实际上需要资金才能

to reach four times what's going into traditional fossil fuels.

使清洁能源达到传统 化石燃料的四倍。

So we need massive scale, massive change in a short amount of time,

因此，我们需要在短时间内进行 大规模的巨大变革，

and we need even more than that

而

to go into financing transitions

要

for individual sectors on the ground,

为当地各个行业进行融资过渡，分解对化石燃料

for breaking down the demand for fossil fuels

的需求 ，

as a way ultimately to break down the supply.

最终 分解供应的一种方式，我们还需要更多。

So when you think about these three buckets,

因此，当你 想到这三个方面，

limiting finance for fossil fuels,

限制化石燃料的融资，

scaling up finance for clean energy

扩大对清洁能源的融资，

and then investing to end the demand for fossil fuels,

然后进行投资 以结束对化石燃料的需求时，

I actually think that one of the greatest untapped --

我实际上认为最大的未开发领域之一 ——

it’s being tapped, but one of the greatest forward-looking opportunities

它正在被利用，但最大的 前瞻性机会之一实际上

is actually in that third bucket, where we break down the demand.

是在第三个 领域，即我们分解需求。

And when we think about that bucket,

当我们想到这个问题时，我们需要更快地 采取行动的地方

one of the places where we need to act much more quickly

之一

is in focusing on hard-to-abate sectors.

就是专注于难以减弱的行业。

These are the most energy-intensive sectors

这些是 能源密集度最高的行业

that won't be able to run on solar and wind.

，无法 依靠太阳能和风能运行。

Things like cement, steel, aviation, shipping,

诸如水泥、 钢铁、航空、

which actually make up almost a third of global emissions in total.

航运之类的东西实际上占全球总排放量的近 三分之一。

So we really need to work to address these.

因此，我们确实需要 努力解决这些问题。

But the good news is that we actually have a lot of the solutions

但好消息是，我们实际上 有很多解决方案可以

to be able to get these sectors to their goals.

使这些行业 实现其目标。

And thanks to policy,

而且，得

thanks to rising demand for these solutions,

益于政策，由于 对这些解决方案的需求不断增加，成本的降低，

bringing down their costs,

以及技术改进，

and thanks to technological improvements,

我们现在看到清洁

we now see that the cost for the clean solutions is approaching,

解决方案的成本已接近，

or in some cases is even lower than,

在某些情况下甚至低于

the costs for the high-emitting alternatives.

高排放替代方案的成本。

So what finance needs to do is partner with science,

因此，金融部门需要做 的是与科学合作，

continue to engage with policy

继续参与政策

and work with engineers

并与工程师合作，

to be able to bring these solutions online at scale.

以便能够将这些解决方案大规模上 线。

DB: Well, we agree with you about the hard-to-abate sectors.

DB：嗯， 关于难以削弱的行业，我们同意你的看法。

Do you have any favorite ones to talk about?

你有最 喜欢的话要谈吗？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

NG: Well, I can't play favorites.

NG：嗯，我没法玩最爱。

DB: But if you were ...

DB：但是如果你是...

NG: But one sector that I'm really excited about right now

NG：但是 我现在真正兴奋的一个领域

is aviation,

是航空，

because sustainable aviation looks ready to scale.

因为可持续航空 看起来已经准备好扩大规模。

One of the things that we're seeing is

我们看到的一件事

that there's a rising amount of corporate demand

是，企业购买可持续航空燃料 的需求

to buy sustainable aviation fuel,

不断增加，这是

which is the key unlock for decarbonizing this sector.

该行业脱碳 的关键解锁。

But what we're also seeing

但是我们还看到

is that the supply of sustainable aviation fuel

，可持续航空燃料

is not nearly enough to meet that demand

的供应不足以满足这一需求

or to meet the goals for the sector,

或实现该行业的目标，

even for 2030.

即使在2030年也是如此。

Forget about 2040 or 2050.

忘记 2040 年或 2050 年吧。

And so what we need to do to make a difference here

因此，为了在这方面有所作为 ，我们需要做

is focus on multiple production pathways

的是专注于可持续航空燃料

for sustainable aviation fuel.

的多种生产途径。

Today, most of the fuel is being produced using biofuels,

如今，大多数燃料 都是使用生物燃料生产的，

which just isn't fit to scale.

而生物燃料根本不适合扩大规模。

So what we need to do is look at pathways which exist.

因此，我们需要做 的是研究现有的路径。

Like we can make this fuel out of ethanol,

就像我们可以用乙醇制造这种燃料一样，

we can make it out of carbon,

我们可以用碳来制造

even carbon dioxide

这种燃料，

that's been captured from the atmosphere.

甚至是从大气中捕获的二氧化碳。

We can make this stuff out of municipal solid waste,

我们可以用城市固体废物制造这些东西 ，

not to be trashy.

不要丢弃。

(Laughter)

（笑声）因此

And so the example of aviation shows a map

，航空业的例子显示了金融部门需要如何 与各个部门合作才能完成这项工作的地图

for how finance needs to partner with individual sectors to get this done.

。

Yes, we need to invest with airlines

是的，我们需要向航空公司投资，

and give them long-term capital to achieve their goals.

并为他们提供长期资本 以实现他们的目标。

But also separately, we need to invest in the solutions that they need

但另外，我们还需要投资 于他们实现这些目标

to reach those goals.

所需的解决方案。

And I think that the aviation sector also paints a picture

而且我认为，航空业 也描绘

of where we need to go in this transition as a whole,

了我们在整个过渡 中需要走向何方，

why it’s hard and why I’m optimistic.

为什么很难，为什么我持乐观态度。

Because the truth is that there is a lot

因为事实是，在这次过渡 中

that we're going to have to let go in this transition,

，我们必须放弃很多事情，

and that's challenging.

这很有挑战性。

We need to do it in a just way.

我们需要以公正的方式去做。

But the other truth is that there's also so much

但另一个事实 是，我们还有很多东西

that we get to create.

可以创造。

We need to let go of jet fuel,

我们需要放弃喷气燃料，

but we also get to invest in all of these sustainable fuels.

但我们也可以 投资所有这些可持续燃料。

So what I see is a massive multigenerational opportunity for growth,

因此，我所看到的是巨大的 多代增长和

sustainable growth.

可持续增长机会。

Just imagine creating a transition that is greater in scale

试想一下 ，在不到30年的时间内实现

than the industrial revolution

比工业革命

to be delivered in less than 30 years.

更大规模的过渡。

It's an unprecedented opportunity for impact.

这是一个前所未有的影响 机会。

So I'm excited.

所以我很兴奋。

I don't know, David. Do you think that we can do this?

我不知道，大卫。 你认为我们可以做到吗？

DB: Well, we both are optimists.

DB：嗯，我们俩都是乐观主义者。

And I think we both have said it's going to be difficult,

而且我认为我们俩都说过 这会很困难，

but we can do it.

但我们可以做到。

We need transformational change in our industries,

我们需要对我们的行业、金融机构、

in our financial institutions,

民间社会，当然

in civil society and certainly in public policy.

还有公共政策 进行变 革。

But we have to remember and understand,

但是我们必须记住和理解，

and we're seeing it very vividly now,

我们现在看到的非常生动，

the impacts of climate change are with us now

气候变化的影响 现在伴随着我们，

and will get more accelerated

并且在未来

over the course of the next couple of years.

几年中将 进一步加速。

Al [Gore] and I published an op-ed in the “Wall Street Journal”

去年

in November of last year

11月，我和艾尔 [戈尔] 在《华尔街日报》

talking about fiduciary duty.

上发表了一篇关于信托义务的专栏文章。

And let us be very clear:

让我们明确一点：不考虑气候

investors who do not consider climate

的

are running significant risks in their portfolios

投资者在其投资组合 中面临重大风险

and are not fulfilling their fiduciary duty.

，没有 履行信托责任。

(Applause)

（掌声）

A pensioner living in a 5.5-degree Fahrenheit --

生活在5.5华氏度（而不是摄氏度）5.5华氏

as opposed Celsius --

度、生物系统退化、不平等现象严重的世界中

5.5-degree Fahrenheit world

不平等现象严重的世界中

with degraded biosystems and rampant inequality

的养老金领取者

will not enjoy the fruits of their retirement.

将无法享受退休的成果。

Now we know finance can change.

现在我们知道财务可以改变。

It's not static.

它不是一成不变的。

We believe very strongly that the role of finance

我们坚信， 金融的作用

is to provide the means for society to achieve its ambitions.

是为社会 提供实现其雄心壮志的手段。

And the good news is climate-led investing is happening.

好消息是，以 气候为导向的投资正在发生。

It is becoming an asset class.

它正在成为一种资产类别。

And so by creating situations

因此，通过创造资本市场 可以扩大其价值的局面

where capital markets can expand what they value,

，

to take account of sustainability impacts,

同时考虑到可持续发展的影响，实际上

will allow us as investors to, in fact, provide the means

将使我们作为投资者 能够

for society to achieve its objectives on the planet, on people and on nature.

为社会提供实现其在地球、人类和自然方面的目标 的手段。

NG: Sounds good. I say let's go out there and do it.

NG：听起来不错。 我说我们去那里做吧。

Thank you, David.

谢谢你，大卫。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）