How to Make Big Decisions in Challenging Circumstances | Jonathan Reimer | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: 麗玲 辛

So I'd like to start with two wildfires.

我想從兩場野火談起。

In 2016, I was the director of the wildland urban interface

2016 年，麥克默里堡發生大火， 我負責野生地與都市的接壤區域。

for the Fort McMurray fire.

I arrived days after the fire had jumped the Athabasca River

我抵達的幾天之前， 火勢就已越過了阿薩巴斯卡河，

and entered the community as a torrent of flame and ember,

以夾雜火焰和火星的 洪流之姿進入社區，

starting hundreds of fires simultaneously throughout the community.

同時在社區數百個地方引發火災。

And in many neighborhoods,

許多鄰里還來不及接到 撤離命令，就被大火延燒。

these fires arrived before the evacuation orders did.

And the flames licked at the bumpers of those fleeing.

火焰竄燒到逃命者車輛的保險桿上。

我到那裡是去接 第一線應變人員的班，

And I was there to relieve the first responders

who had been working without sleep since that time,

他們從一開始就不眠不休地工作，

and I had never seen anything like it.

我從未見過這樣的狀況。

At the time, no one had.

那時，大家都還沒見過。

Rows of homes decimated,

一排排的房屋被摧毀， 受災戶分佈在各處，

interspersed, seemingly at random,

彷彿是隨機被選中的， 有些房屋又毫無損傷。

with homes that were untouched.

Cars abandoned in the roadways.

道路上可看見被遺棄的汽車。

A city strangely silent, except for the hum of our pumps.

城市安靜到有點詭異，只剩下 我們的幫浦還在發出嗡嗡聲。

And the clang of pulaskis.

還有雙向斧的敲擊聲。

Now our crews were able to protect the remaining neighborhoods,

我們的隊員成功保住了剩下的鄰里，

but when the 88,000 people that were evacuated returned,

但當撤離的八萬八千人返回時，

some had little to return to,

有些人已經無家可歸，

and Fort McMurray remains the most destructive

麥克默里堡大火仍然 是加拿大史上最具破壞力

and costly wildfire in Canadian history.

且財損最高的野火。

The next year, I responded to a fire threatening the town of Waterton,

隔年，我出動參與處理 威脅到瓦特頓鎮的火災，

which is a beautiful community in the Rocky Mountains.

該鎮是位在洛磯山脈的美麗社區。

This fire appeared more distant,

這場大火看似比較遙遠，

some 25 kilometers on the other side of the Great Divide,

在大約二十五公里外， 且是在大分水嶺的另一側，

which is a high mountainous ridge where our crews were trying to hold it.

大分水嶺是條高聳的山脊， 我們的隊員試圖在那裡控制火勢。

One night the fire did something that no one expected.

有天晚上，火勢發生了 沒人預期到的變化。

When night fell,

夜幕降臨時，

and the fire behavior normally reduces,

火勢的蔓延通常會減緩，

the fire surged over the ridge, moving 100 meters a minute.

而這場大火猛然翻過山脊， 以每分鐘一百公尺的速度擴散。

Flames overran the town at 10pm,

晚上十點時，火焰就吞噬了整個鎮，

and the fire quadrupled in size in about five hours.

火勢在約五小時內擴大了四倍。

When the smoke cleared,

當煙霧消散時，

we hadn’t lost a single home in Waterton,

瓦特頓所有的房子都還完好，

and there were no injuries.

且沒有人受傷。

And that is because three days earlier,

這是因為三天前，社區居民就已撤離。

the community was evacuated,

and firefighters had established extensive community protection efforts.

且消防員也已經廣泛 建立了社區保護措施。

雖然景觀已和昔日不同，

And though the landscape was transformed,

people could return home safely in a few days later.

但幾天後居民還可以安全地返家。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Now the difference between these two fires

這兩場大火之間的差別

was a single, bold decision.

是一個大膽的決定。

Firefighters in Waterton couldn't have anticipated

瓦特頓的消防員無法預測

exactly what would happen.

到底會發生什麼事。

But they assessed the risks,

但他們評估了風險， 並做出了一個重大的決定，

and they made a great decision with huge consequences

對他們的社區有極大的影響。

for their community.

It was up to them,

決定權在他們手上，

and they rose to the challenge.

而他們起身面對挑戰。

Now we all face times when it is up to us.

我們都會面臨到決定權 在我們手上的時候。

I am an emergency manager and an incident commander,

我是應變管理人員及事故指揮官，

and I’m deeply curious about this question:

我對這個問題深感好奇：

How can we make big decisions well?

我們要如何做好重大決策？

Decisions that are high-impact, that are complex,

重大決策指的是影響力很大 又很複雜的決策，

where we may not have all the time we would like

且我們可能沒有足夠的時間

and all the information that we need.

和需要的資訊來做決策。

How do we make big decisions well?

我們如何做好重大決策？

Now on a wildfire, these decisions include whether to use direct

在森林大火的情況中，要做的決策 就包括是否要用直接／間接攻擊、

or indirect attack,

or when our best option is to move people out of the path of a wildfire.

或者何時最適合將居民 撤離野火會經過的路徑。

And we might make these decisions in incident command post

我們可能是在事故指揮所

或緊急應變中心裡，做出這些決策。

or emergency operation center,

or hunched over the hood of a truck with paper maps pockmarked by ash.

也可能是彎腰趴在汽車引擎蓋上，

攤開被灰燼弄得坑坑 疤疤的地圖來做決策。

But as a medical professional or a CEO,

若你是醫療專業人員或執行長，

you might be making these decisions in a boardroom.

你可能是在會議室裡做這些決策。

As a parent or partner,

如果你是家長或伴侶， 則可能是在餐桌上做這些決策。

you might make these decisions at the kitchen table.

And I'd like to share with you what I've learned

我想和大家分享 我學到的經驗，談談如何

about making big decisions in challenging circumstances.

在充滿挑戰的情況下做出重大決策。

So here's what we normally think happens, right?

我們一般的認知是這樣的：

You know, we face a big problem.

當我們面臨重大的問題時，

We collect all the available information, we evaluate our options,

我們收集所有可得的資訊， 評估可行的選項，

and we select the one that maximizes the things that we want to happen

判斷哪個選項 最能達到我們想要的目標，

and minimizes those that we don't.

且最能減少我們不想要的狀況。

And in this view,

從這個角度來看，決策問題 基本上就是資訊問題，

decision problems are essentially information problems

that we can't eliminate the uncertainty,

我們無法排除不確定性，

but we can chip away at it by adding more information.

但我們可以透過取得更多資訊 來一點一點減少不確定性。

And so I committed to providing the best information for our incident commanders.

所以我很努力提供 最佳資訊給事故指揮官。

But I kept encountering situations that I couldn't make sense of.

但我卻一直遇到我無法理解的情況。

Where adding more information

明明提供了更多資訊，

didn't seem to be helping people make better decisions.

卻似乎無法協助決策者 做出更好的決定。

In one study,

在一項研究中，

increasing the amount of information available to incident commanders

增加事故指揮官取得的資訊量

consistently decreased their performance,

始終都會讓他們的表現變差，

although they thought they were performing better.

只是他們以為自己的表現變得更好。

What was happening is that more information

實情是，更多資訊

was not reducing uncertainty in practice

無法減少現實中的不確定性，

but causing these incident commanders

反而會讓這些事故指揮官 把注意力轉移去

to focus their attention on evaluating all of this data

評估所有這些資料，

and overlooking more important aspects.

因而忽略更重要的面向。

And some of the best firefighters that I knew

我認識一些最傑出的消防員，

didn't have better information.

他們沒有更好的資訊，

They seemed to work by feel.

他們似乎是靠感覺來工作。

That on a big day,

在重大的事故時，

they could bend down, touch the grass

他們可以彎下腰，觸碰草地，

and tell me with great accuracy

非常準確地告訴我，

what the fire would do later that day.

當天的火勢後續會有什麼發展。

And so I turned to psychology to help me understand all this,

所以我轉向心理學， 希望能理解這個現象，

而我發現，我之前漏掉了 某種革命性的關鍵。

and I discovered that I had missed something of a revolution.

當然，我們有理性的思維，

That we have our rational minds, of course,

but we have an entirely different set of tools

但我們還另有一套完全不同的工具 來幫助我們做出複雜的決策。

to help us make complex decisions.

And that is our gut.

就是我們的本能，

Our intuitions.

我們的直覺。

They're fast, they're effortless.

直覺的速度很快，且毫不費力。

They often don't feel like making a decision at all,

使用直覺和做決策感覺起來完全 不同，你就是會看到解決方案。

you just see the solution.

They're how we drive our car to work,

我們開車去上班，就是靠直覺。

and how we look over in the next lane and spot a dangerous driver

我們只從微小的觀察就能發現旁邊 車道上有危險駕駛，靠的也是直覺。

from a tiny observation.

In fact, most of our judgments in life are made intuitively,

事實上，我們在生活中 大多數的判斷都是靠直覺，

and they can perform amazing feats.

這類判斷還能促成驚人的壯舉。

Chess grandmasters form an idea of the best move extremely quickly,

最高段的國際棋王瞬間 就能想出最佳棋步要怎麼走，

within a few seconds.

費時僅幾秒鐘。

And four out of five times,

而五次中就有四次，

that is a decision that they ultimately play.

那個想法就是他們最終採用的棋步。

How do they do that?

他們怎麼做到的？

If you ask them, they're not entirely sure either.

如果去問他們， 他們也無法完全肯定。

And it turns out,

事實證明，

our intuition is a form of unconscious pattern recognition.

我們的直覺就是一種 無意識的模式識別。

That it can keep track of details that our conscious mind misses.

它可以持續追蹤 我們意識思維忽略的細節。

And that is how those firefighters were able to predict complex fire behavior

消防員就是靠直覺，才能只觸摸 幾片草葉就能預測複雜的火勢發展。

by touching a few blades of grass.

They had a lifetime's worth of patterns stored in their memory.

他們的記憶中儲存了 他們一生經歷到的模式。

But our intuitions are not magic.

但直覺不是魔法。

They can be fooled.

直覺也可能被欺騙。

They create useful thoughts rapidly,

直覺能快速創造出有用的想法，

but they can see patterns that aren't there,

但直覺也可以讓人看到 不存在的模式，

They can see the Virgin Mary in burnt toast.

比如在燒焦的吐司上 看到聖母瑪莉亞。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

They can see a conspiracy behind every setback.

或是看到每一次挫敗背後的陰謀。

And crucially, they struggle with any form of statistics.

很重要的是，直覺不擅處理 任何形式的統計數據。

If you take these two packages, for example,

以這兩種包裝為例，

if we choose to reflect on them,

如果我們決定好好想想， 理智上可能知道它們是一樣的。

we may know intellectually that these are equal,

but we're always going to prefer that one on the left, right?

但我們總是偏好左邊的，對吧？

Now on a grocery aisle, that’s not a big problem.

在雜貨店購物，這不算是個大問題。

But if we are evaluating a fire containment strategy

但如果我們是在評估

火災控制策略， 且成功機率為 80%，

with an 80 percent chance of success,

那麼思考一下那 20% 的 失敗機率是有助益的。

it helps to reflect on that 20-percent chance of failure.

And so we have these two types of thinking,

因此，我們有這兩種思維方式，

our gut and our rational mind,

我們的直覺及我們的理性，

each with their own different sources of wisdom

它們各有自己的智慧所在，

and their own blind spots.

也有自己的盲點。

How can we draw on both in challenging circumstances?

在充滿挑戰的情況下， 要如何運用這兩者？

Now I don’t have all of the answers for that,

對這個問題，我沒有所有的答案，

but I do want to share an insight from firefighting,

但我想分享我從 打火經驗得來的洞見，

and that is to start with a size-up.

那就是：從初步判斷開始。

When we arrive on scene to a new fire,

當我們抵達新的火災現場， 我們會以系統化的方式收集資訊，

we systematically gather information on what's burning,

了解燒的是什麼東西、

the fire behavior, the hazards,

火勢發展、有什麼危險、

what could be threatened in the area,

在該區域中有什麼會受到火災威脅，

and only after that is complete do we turn our attention to strategies

在初步判斷完成之後， 我們才會把注意力

轉向策略和戰略。

and tactics.

You can imagine fire response is extremely time-sensitive.

各位可以想像，對火災 做應變是分秒必爭的。

But a good size-up will help you save time and often lives.

但做好初步判斷， 通常可以幫你節省時間，

通常還能拯救人命。

Now a size-up will look very different in a boardroom or at the kitchen table.

在會議室裡或餐桌上的 初步判斷可能會很不一樣。

What matters is that you identify the critical pieces of information,

重要的是你要能識別出重要的資訊，

and then you go out and assess them.

接著再去評估它們。

This may take a few moments or a few months,

可能會花幾分鐘，或幾個月。

but what's important is the order.

但重要的是順序。

That we establish a reliable base of information

要先建立可靠的資訊基礎，

before we turn our mind to an overall assessment.

接著再把心思轉向整體狀況評估。

Then we can switch gears

接著我們可以切換思維方式，

and call on our intuition to help guide us towards a great decision.

仰賴直覺來引導我們 做出重大的決策。

這和我們一般的做法相反，對吧？

Now this is the opposite of what we tend to do, right?

Where we face a dilemma,

當我們面臨兩難時，

our gut jumps in, hands us an intuition,

我們的本能就會跳出來提供直覺，

and we go out and see if we can confirm that intuition,

我們就去實做看看 能否確認那個直覺。

which may be fantastic.

這方法可能很棒。

Or it might be just noise.

但這也可能是干擾。

But turning our attention to it at this point

但一開始就把注意力轉向直覺，

can make it more difficult to see the best solution.

可能會更難看見最佳解決方案。

And we can experience this together.

我們可以一起來體驗看看。

So come with me on this.

跟我一起來試一下。

A bat at a ball cost 110 dollars in total.

一根球棒和一顆球 總共要一百一十美金。

The bat costs 100 dollars more than the ball.

球棒的價格比球高一百美金。

How much does the ball cost?

球多少錢？

Now this question is designed to trigger your gut.

設計這個問題的目的 是要觸發你的本能。

It should be screaming in your ear, 10 dollars.

你的本能應該正在你耳邊大叫 「十美金」，感覺到了嗎？

Did you feel that?

Now if you stopped and checked,

如果你停下來檢查一下，

you realized that can't quite be right.

你就會發現十美金並不正確。

That if the ball is 10 dollars,

如果球是十美金，

then the bat would have to be 110 dollars,

球棒就是一百一十美金。

and together it would be 120 dollars.

總額則會是一百二十美金。

And that's why only 14 percent of people get this question correct.

這就是為什麼只有 14％ 的人 能答對這個問題。

But let's see if we can make it a little bit easier by adding a hint.

但咱們來看看，加上一個提示 是否會讓問題變簡單些。

[Hint: $10 is not the answer]

〔提示：答案不是十美金〕

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Now, 34 percent of people get this question right.

這樣就有 34％ 的人能夠答對了。

Which is better, right?

比較好，對吧？

But it's still not great.

但還是不夠好。

So we can nudge people in the right direction.

我們可以把人推向正確的方向。

[Before responding, consider whether the answer could be $5]

〔回答之前，想想看 答案是否可能是五美金。〕

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But now only 31 percent of people get the question correct.

但加上這個提示後， 卻只有 31% 的人答對。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But what has shocked me

但讓我震驚的

is what happens when you give people the right answer.

是提供正確答案之後所發生的現象。

[The answer is $5.]

〔答案是五美金〕

[Please enter the number five in the blank below]

〔請把數字五填入下方的空格裡〕

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Now, 77 percent of people get this question correct,

這樣就有 77% 的人答對這個問題，

which means that more than 20 percent of people are given the solution,

這就表示有超過 20% 的人，

即使直接告訴他們解答， 還是會答錯這個問題。

being told that it's the solution and are getting this question incorrect.

And what researchers conclude

研究人員的結論是： 我們太愛用直覺解法。

is that we fall in love with our intuitive solutions.

That our own ideas are great, right?

覺得自己的想法很棒，對吧？

So much so that even if a perfect solution is handed to us

以至於……

即使有完美的解決方案 拱手端到我們面前，

on a silver platter afterwards,

it can be difficult to accept.

我們可能仍很難接受它。

There’s a clue to how this all works in practice

在過去一場野火中，可以看到 這個現象實際呈現的跡象。

from an old wildfire.

In 1949, a crew of smokejumpers

1949 年，一個空降森林消防隊小組

became caught on a mountainside in Montana

被困在蒙大拿州的一處山坡上，

above a fast-moving wildfire.

就在快速移動的野火上方。

And they did what I think any of us would in that situation,

他們決定逃跑，我認為我們 任何人都會做一樣的決策。

they ran.

And it became a race for them to reach the top of the hill

他們必須在火勢追上他們之前， 先跑到山丘頂上。

before the fire caught up with them.

Now their leader was a fellow named Wag Dodge,

他們的領隊是個叫做 瓦格‧道奇的傢伙，

and he soon realized that they were going to lose that race.

他很快就發現，他們跑不贏火勢。

And so he stopped

所以他停下來，

and made an unintuitive decision.

做了一個違反直覺的決定。

他在自己的腳下點燃了火柴。

He lit a match at his own feet.

His idea was that if we burn off the fuel,

他的想法是，如果先除去可燃物，

當主要的火勢蔓延過來時， 只會在我們周圍燃燒，我們就安全了。

when the main fire arrives,

it'll burn around us and we'll be safe.

And he called out to the other smokejumpers, to his crew,

他叫其他空降森林 消防隊員，他的組員，

to come and join him.

一起這麼做。

And they turned and looked at him, confused.

他們轉身困惑地看著他。

And no one did.

沒有人照他說的做。

They couldn't see what Wag saw.

他們看不到瓦格看到的。

They were blinded by their intuitive reaction

他們被他們的直覺反應矇蔽了，

to get out of there.

一心只想離開那裡。

Now Wag survived that fire unharmed,

瓦格毫髮無傷從那場大火倖存下來，

but the others were not as lucky.

但其他人卻沒那麼幸運。

Now hopefully we never face a situation quite like that.

希望我們永遠不用面對那種情況。

但我們都可能得在不確定的 情況下做出重大決策，

But we all do face big decisions under uncertainty,

where it's up to us and what we do matters.

一切取決於此，且事關大局。

And what I've discovered is that more information may not be the answer,

我發現，解決方法可能 並不是取得更多資訊，

and that a small tweak to the way that we use our intuition

微調一下我們使用直覺的方式，

can make it much easier to guide us towards better decisions.

反而更容易用直覺 引導我們做出更佳的決策。

不是一產生直覺

Instead of having an intuition

and looking at the world through it,

就透過直覺看世界，

start by looking to the world

應該先看清楚世界，

and then consulting your intuition.

然後再諮詢你的直覺。

And so the next time we're at a boardroom

下回當我們身處在會議室裡，

or that kitchen table

或在餐桌上，

or in an emergency operation center,

或在緊急應變中心裡，

and we face that big decision,

面臨重大決策時，

let’s take a breath,

先吸一口氣，

and start with a size-up.

然後從初步判斷做起。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）