Break the Bad News Bubble with Angus Hervey (Part 1) | TED Explains

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翻译人员: Bruce Wang 校对人员: Manlin Fang
00:04
Whitney Pennington Rodgers: Hi, Angus, thanks for joining me today.
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惠特尼·彭宁顿·罗杰斯: 嗨,安格斯,感谢你今天加入我的行列。
00:07
Angus Hervey: Whitney, good to be with you.
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安格斯·赫维:惠特尼, 很高兴和你在一起。
00:09
WPR: So we've launched a series here at TED called TED Explains,
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WPR:因此,我们在TED上推出了一个名为 TED Explassions的系列文章,
00:12
where we take big headlines and break down what they mean and why they matter.
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我们在该系列中列出了头条新闻,分解 了它们的含义以及它们为何重要。
00:17
And as we're thinking about the kind of stories we wanted to explain,
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当我们思考我们想解释 的故事时,
00:20
one thing that came up in our conversations is you
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对话中出现的一件事是你
00:23
and the work that you do at Fix the News.
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和你在 Fix the News 所做的工作。
00:26
So what is Fix the News?
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那么什么是 Fix the News?
00:27
What is it that you do over there?
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你在那边干什么?
00:29
AH: Fix the News is founded on the idea
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AH:Fix the News 建立在这样的理念之上,
00:32
that the biggest problem in media today
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即当今媒体中最大的问题
00:35
isn’t the division between left versus right
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不是 左右的分界
00:37
or the filter bubbles that we're stuck in.
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或我们陷入的过滤气泡。
00:40
It’s the bad news bubble that we’re all stuck in.
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这是我们都陷入 的坏消息泡沫。
00:43
Because the news tells us what’s going wrong.
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因为新闻告诉我们出了 什么问题。
00:46
It's a thing about failure and not success.
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这是关于失败 而不是成功的问题。
00:48
And it's also true that the news is about sudden events,
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而且,新闻的确 是突发事件,
00:51
not gradual trends.
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而不是渐进的趋势。
00:52
It's about the unusual and not the commonplace.
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这是关于不寻常的事物, 而不是司空见惯的事情。
00:55
And as a result,
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结果,出现了
00:56
vast waves of progress: extreme poverty declining,
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巨大的进步: 极端贫困减少,
01:00
lifespans increasing,
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寿命延长,
01:01
living standards rising,
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生活水平提高,
01:03
laws becoming more tolerant,
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法律变得更加宽容,
01:04
diseases disappearing,
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疾病消失,
01:06
oceans and forests being protected,
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海洋和森林得到保护,
01:08
clean energy replacing fossil fuels,
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清洁能源取代化石燃料,
01:10
those things are kind of invisible.
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这些都是看不见的。
01:12
A simpler way, really, of saying this is that
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实际上,一个更简单的说 法是,世界上可能 正在发生
01:15
terrible things might be happening in the world,
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可怕的事情,
01:17
but not everything that's happening in the world is terrible.
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但并非世界上发生 的一切都是可怕的。
01:20
So at Fix the News we publish a newsletter
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因此,在 Fix the News, 我们发布了一份时事通讯,
01:22
and share this information with tens of thousands of people,
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并与成千上万的人分享了这些信息,
01:25
and it's stories about what's going right.
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其中包括关于 正在发生的事情的故事。
01:28
Powerful stories of progress
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我们将有力的进展
01:30
that we distill into a succinct snapshot that connect people to the bigger picture
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故事提炼成一个简洁的快照 ,将人们与大局联系起来,
01:35
and explain what progress is being made,
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并解释正在取得的进展、
01:38
what timeline it takes place over,
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所发生的时间表、实现这一目标需要
01:40
what it took to get there and what the impact is.
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什么 以及产生了什么影响。
01:44
WPR: Well, we've been really fortunate
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WPR:嗯,我们真的很幸运能
01:46
to have you share some of these big stories of progress
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让你分享你在 两次TED演讲 中取得的进展
01:49
over the course of two TED Talks that you’ve given,
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的重大故事,
01:51
this past year being the most recent one.
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去年是最近的一次。
01:54
And they were the stories just as you've described,
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01:56
are these big stories that we might have missed
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这是我们可能会失去的 一个大故事
01:59
because they were not covered in the news for one reason or another.
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因为某种原因没有在新闻 中报道而错过的重大报道。
02:03
We're really thrilled to have you share more of these stories with us
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作为TED Explassions的 特别系列的一部分,
02:06
as part of this special series within a series at TED Explains
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我们非常高兴你能与 我们分享 更多这样的故事,
02:09
called TED Explains the News That You Missed,
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该系列名为 TED 解释你错过的新闻,
02:11
and this is the first of that series.
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这是该系列的第一篇。
02:13
So since you gave your last talk, at this point, it's about six months ago,
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因此,自从你上次演讲以来,这个 时候,大约是六个月前,
02:17
a lot has happened out in the world.
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世界上发生了很多事情。
02:19
So let's talk about a few of the big stories that you've been tracking.
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因此,让我们来谈谈你 一直在追踪的一些重大故事。
02:22
And one of those stories is probably something
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我们许多人的头等大事,
02:24
that was front and center for a lot of us at one point,
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其中一个故事可能曾经是
02:27
which is the fight against AIDS.
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那就是抗击艾滋病。
02:29
And I know there's some big news there lately.
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而且我知道最近有一些 重大新闻。
02:31
So what's the story there?
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那么那里的故事是什么?
02:33
What's been happening in that space?
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那个空间发生了什么?
02:35
AH: Well, AIDS is still a big deal.
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AH:嗯,艾滋病还是个大问题。
02:38
We don't hear about it in the news very much anymore.
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我们再也不会在新闻 中听到这件事了。
02:41
But it's killed over 40 million people since the pandemic first began.
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但是,自疫情首次爆发 以来,它已经造成4000多万人死亡。
02:46
And there are around 40 million people worldwide
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目前,全球约有4000 万艾滋病毒
02:50
who are living with HIV right now.
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感染者。
02:52
So it's a big thing that has happened to humanity
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因此,这是发生在人类 身上的大事,
02:56
and continues to be a daily reality for a lot of people.
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并且仍然是许多人的日常现实。
03:01
At the end of July, UNAIDS held their annual conference,
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7月底,联合国艾滋病 规划署举行了年度会议,
03:04
and at that conference they released data with some really incredible news
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在那次会议上,他们发布了数据,
03:09
showing that annual AIDS deaths have declined by 69 percent
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其中一些非常令人难以置信的消息表明, 自2004年达到峰值
03:13
since their peak in 2004.
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以来,每年的艾滋病死亡 人数下降了69%。
03:15
So just to put this into context, at the peak of the AIDS epidemic,
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因此,仅从背景来看, 在艾滋病疫情的高峰期,
03:20
close to two million people died.
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有近200万人死亡。
03:21
It was one of the worst problems in the world.
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这是世界上最严重 的问题之一。
03:24
And in 2023, 20 years later,
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而在20年后的2023年,
03:28
around 630,000 people lost their lives,
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约有63万人丧生,
03:31
which is still devastating.
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这仍然是毁灭性的。
03:33
But in terms of progress against a disease,
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但就 抗击疾病的进展而言,
03:35
this really is one of the most remarkable stories in global public health.
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这确实是全球公共卫生 领域最引人注目的故事之一。
03:39
And the reason that it's been possible
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之所以成为可能,
03:43
is because of access, mostly to antiretroviral therapies.
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是因为有机会获得, 主要是抗逆转录病毒疗法。
03:47
There are 40 million people worldwide living with HIV right now,
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目前,全球有4000万 艾滋病毒感染者,
03:50
and more than 77 percent of those people have access to antiretroviral therapies
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其中77%以上的人
03:54
and 84 percent of pregnant women,
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可以获得抗逆转录病毒疗法,
03:57
which prevents transmission to their child.
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84%的孕妇可以防止传播 给孩子。
03:59
And it's this, this access to these incredible medicines
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正是这种获得这些 不可思议药物的机会,
04:02
that's really driving the decline in overall mortality.
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真正推动了总体死亡率 的下降。
04:06
At the same conference, the UNAIDS conference in July,
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在同一次会议上, 即7月的联合国艾滋病规划署会议上,最激动人心的时刻
04:11
one of the most exciting moments, if not the most exciting moment,
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之一, 如果不是最激动人心的时刻,
04:14
and certainly one of the most anticipated at the conference,
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当然也是会议上最令人 期待的时刻之一,
04:18
was the release of data from a trial of a drug called Lenacapavir
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是发布了一项名为Lenacapavir 的药物试验的数据,
04:23
which showed that this drug,
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该药物表明,这种药物,
04:25
which only needs to be injected twice a year,
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每年只 需要注射两次,
04:28
has a 100-percent effectiveness rate in preventing the transmission.
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预防传播的有效率 为百分之百。
04:34
This is extraordinary.
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这太不寻常了。
04:36
This is not the kind of thing that happens in medical trials.
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这不是医学试验中 发生的事情。
04:39
You don't get 100 percent effectiveness rates in anything really.
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实际上,你在任何事情上都无法获得百分之百的 有效率。
04:43
And when the results of that trial were announced,
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当那次审判 的结果公布时,
04:47
I think the entire plenary leapt to their feet and started applauding.
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我认为整个全体会议都站了 起来,开始鼓掌。
04:51
It was really an incredible moment.
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那确实是一个不可思议的时刻。
04:54
And AIDS researchers are incredibly excited about it.
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艾滋病研究人员 对此感到非常兴奋。
04:56
The next big battle, of course now is to get Gilead to release that drug
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当然,现在的下一场大战 是让吉利德以人们负担得 起的价格
05:01
to low- and middle-income countries at a price that people can afford.
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向低收入和中等收入国家发布这种药物。
05:04
But certainly the future looks bright
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但是可以肯定的是,
05:07
for a lot of people who have this disease.
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对于许多患有这种疾病的人来说,前途一片光明。
05:11
There's still a lot of questions around funding and the future trajectory,
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关于资金和未来的发展轨迹, 还有很多疑问,
05:16
but really, I think we can all take a lot of comfort
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但实际上,我认为我们可以
05:19
from the progress that has been made over the last 20 years.
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从过去20年中取得的进展中得到很多安慰。
05:23
WPR: Well, I know you're also always tracking progress
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WPR:嗯,我知道你也 一直在
05:25
on the battle against climate change
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关注应对气候变化的进展
05:28
and some big news for what's going on in the Amazon.
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以及亚马逊正在发生的 事情的一些重大新闻。
05:31
What's happening there?
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那里发生了什么?
05:32
AH: Again, this is kind of as big as it gets.
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AH:再说一遍, 这有点大。
05:36
The Amazon also is a big deal.
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亚马逊也是一件大事。
05:39
And I mean, I don't think I need to explain that.
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我的意思是,我认为 我不需要解释这一点。
05:43
You know, people call it the lungs of the Earth for a reason.
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你知道,人们称之为地球 之肺是有原因的。
05:47
It's the largest rainforest in the world.
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它是世界上最大的热带雨林。
05:49
And within the Amazon itself,
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而在亚马逊本身,亚马逊
05:51
most of the Amazon is taken up by the Brazilian Amazon.
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的大部分地区都被巴西亚马逊占 领。
05:54
I think around two thirds of the entire Amazon basin is within Brazil.
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我认为整个 亚马逊盆地约有三分之二位于巴西境内。
05:59
So really what happens in Brazil,
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因此,实际上,在巴西发生的事情不仅 对该地区和森林
06:03
kind of matters not just for the region and for the forest,
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很重要,
06:07
but for the planet as a whole.
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对整个地球也很重要。
06:09
And there has been some really incredible news coming out of Brazil.
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巴西 传来了一些非常不可思议的消息。
06:12
It was released last month by Brazil's space agency,
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巴西航天局上个月 发布的报告
06:16
showing that deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon
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显示,在过去的12个月 中,巴西亚马逊地区的
06:18
has come down by 45 percent in the last 12 months.
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森林砍伐减少了45%。
06:22
This is the largest proportional decrease in deforestation
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这是他们有史以来 12个月以来
06:26
that they have ever recorded in 12 months.
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最大的森林砍伐比例减少。
06:29
Under Bolsonaro,
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在博尔索纳罗的领导下,
06:31
deforestation kind of skyrocketed,
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森林砍伐急剧上升,每年
06:34
up to almost 10,000 square kilometers a year.
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高达近10,000 平方千米。
06:37
And it's now down in the last 12-month period
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在过去的12个月中, 这一比例已降
06:39
to below 5,000 square kilometers a year.
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至每年5,000平方公里以下。
06:42
Now this is still a lot of deforestation.
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现在这仍然是大量的森林砍伐。
06:45
So this is not to say that the problem has been solved.
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因此,这并不是 说问题已经解决了。
06:48
Instead, it's an indicator of progress.
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相反,它是进展的指标。
06:51
And I think what's so heartening about this story
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我认为这个故事
06:53
is that when President Lula da Silva came into power
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令人振奋的是 , 当卢拉·达席尔瓦总统
06:57
at the beginning of 2023,
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于2023年初上台时,
06:58
one of his main campaign promises was to end illegal deforestation
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他的主要竞选承诺之一 是结束巴西亚马逊
07:03
in the Brazilian Amazon.
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地区的非法森林砍伐。
07:05
And what has happened there in Brazil
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而在巴西发生的事情是,
07:07
is that the government has poured resources
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政府 已经向环境执法局
07:09
into Environmental Enforcement Agency
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及其公园管理局
07:11
and their Park Service.
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注入了资源。
07:13
So this rhetoric is being backed by action,
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因此,这种言论 得到了行动的支持,
07:15
and we're seeing that in the results.
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我们在结果中看到了这一点。
07:18
Now this doesn’t mean the Amazon is out of the woods, so to speak.
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可以这么说,这并不意味着亚马逊 已经走出困境。
07:23
We have a really problematic drought that's happening right now
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由于气候变化, 我们现在正在
07:26
because of climate change.
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发生一场非常棘手的干旱。
07:28
We have record amounts of fires in the Amazon,
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亚马逊 的火灾数量创历史新高,
07:30
and a lot of the headlines have been about those problems.
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许多头条新闻 都是关于这些问题的。
07:33
But I think that if you look over the span of the last 12 months,
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但我认为,纵观过去 的12个月,
07:37
there are hugely encouraging signs of progress.
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有非常令人鼓舞的进展 迹象。
07:41
And every reason to believe that Lula will continue to meet these promises
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而且有充分的理由 相信卢拉将继续兑现
07:44
of reducing illegal deforestation.
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减少非法砍伐森林的承诺。
07:48
WPR: Well, across the globe and in another environmental issue,
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WPR:嗯,在全球范围内 , 在另一个环境问题中,
07:51
you're seeing something happening in China that's also really exciting.
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你会看到中国发生的事情 也非常令人兴奋。
07:55
Tell us about that.
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告诉我们这件事。
07:57
AH: Yeah, so this is I think,
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AH:是的,所以我认为,
07:59
for me, this is the most important climate news of the year,
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对我来说,这是今年最重要的 气候新闻,
08:02
which is why you're probably not seeing it in the headlines,
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这就是为什么你可能 没有在头条新闻中看到的原因,
08:06
which is that China is installing record amounts of wind and solar energy.
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减少非法砍伐森林就是中国正在安装 创纪录数量的风能和太阳能。
08:12
102 gigawatts of solar in the first six months of the year
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今年前六个月的太阳能 为102千兆瓦,
08:15
and 26 gigawatts of wind.
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风能为26千兆瓦。
08:17
Solar addition's up by 31 percent compared to last year,
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与去年相比, 太阳能新增量增长了31%,
08:20
and wind addition's up by 12 percent.
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风能新增量增长了12%。
08:22
And last year, of course, was a record
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当然,去年是中国部署 可再生能源
08:25
for deployment of renewable energy in China.
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的纪录。
08:27
So we're entering new territory here.
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因此,我们正在进入新的领域。
08:30
And to kind of, again, put a bit of a marker on this,
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再说一遍,
08:34
China has just hit its 1,200 gigawatt wind and solar goal,
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中国刚刚提前
08:38
six years early.
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六年实现了1200千兆瓦的 风能和太阳能目标。
08:40
So in 2020,
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因此,在2020年,
08:42
China had around 450 gigawatts of wind and solar,
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中国拥有约450千兆瓦 的风能和太阳能,
08:45
and they set a goal of reaching 1,200 gigawatts by 2030.
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他们设定了到2030年达到 1200千兆瓦的目标。
08:49
And most energy analysts around the world
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全球大多数能源分析师都
08:51
said that that was too ambitious.
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表示,这太雄心勃勃了。
08:53
And yet China has now hit that goal in July 2024.
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然而,中国现在已经在2024年7月实现了 这个目标。
08:57
And as a result of this incredibly rapid deployment of clean energy,
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而且,由于清洁能源的 快速部署,
09:01
probably the most important story, certainly technology story,
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这可能是最重要的故事, 当然是技术故事,
09:06
one of the most important technology stories
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也是最重要的 技术故事之一
09:08
and the most important climate story happening in the world right now.
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也是目前世界上 发生的最重要的气候故事。
09:11
It looks like China's carbon emissions fell by one percent
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看来中国的碳排放量
09:15
in the second quarter of 2024.
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在2024年第二季度 下降了百分之一。
09:18
And many energy analysts are saying
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许多能源分析师
09:20
that looking forward over the next, you know,
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表示,展望未来 , 即今年剩下的
09:23
four or five months that remain in the year,
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四五个月,
09:25
there is a more than 50 percent chance
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中国在2024年 碳排放量下降的可能
09:28
that China could see carbon emissions decline in 2024.
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性超过50%。
09:31
Of course, China is the largest carbon emitter in the world.
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当然,中国是世界上最大的 碳排放国。
09:35
So when China peaks,
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因此,当中国达到顶峰时,
09:37
that means the rest of the world peaks as well.
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这意味着世界其他地区 也将达到顶峰。
09:39
And it could mean
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这可能意味着,
09:41
that after the 300-year journey of carbon-led industrialization
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在我们经历了300年的 碳主导型工业化
09:46
that we've been on,
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之旅之后,今年, 2024年标志着
09:47
this year, 2024 marks the point at which the ship turns around,
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这艘船的转折点,
09:52
and we embark on the next 30 or 40-year journey of decarbonization.
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我们将踏上下一个30 或40年的脱碳之旅。
09:57
It's a seminal moment in the climate story
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这是气候故事中的 一个开创性时刻,
10:00
and one which I wish was getting more headlines.
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我希望这个时刻 能成为更多头条新闻。
10:04
WPR: So up there with climate change,
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WPR:因此,在气候变化的背景下,
10:05
hunger is another one of these huge global challenges
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饥饿是另一个 巨大的全球挑战,
10:08
that seem insurmountable in some ways.
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在某些方面似乎无法克服。
10:10
But you've been seeing some exciting ways that schools are tackling this.
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但是你已经看到了学校正在 解决这个问题的一些令人兴奋的方法。
10:14
Can you tell us a little bit more about that?
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你能再告诉我们一点吗?
10:16
AH: So we're keeping it small here.
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AH:所以我们在这里保持小规模。
10:19
We’ve done a disease, deforestation, climate change
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我们造成了疾病、 毁林、气候变化,
10:24
and now we're tackling hunger.
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现在我们正在解决饥饿问题。
10:25
So we're sticking to small subjects.
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因此,我们坚持研究小题目。
10:29
Hunger is a major issue in the world right now.
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饥饿是当今世界上的 一个主要问题。
10:32
It is one of the areas in which we're going in reverse.
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这是我们反向发展的 领域之一。
10:36
We've actually seen global hunger increase over the last few years,
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实际上,在过去的几年中, 我们已经看到全球饥饿加剧,
10:41
and largely as a result
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这主要是战争和冲突
10:43
of war and and conflict.
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造成的。
10:48
But within that story, there is a really bright spot.
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但是在这个故事中,确实 有一个亮点。
10:53
And that is the global effort to feed kids at school.
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这就是为在校儿童 提供食物的全球努力。
10:58
This is one of the best ideas that human beings have ever had
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这是人类有史以来 最好的想法之一 ,
11:01
and also one of the simplest.
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也是最简单的想法之一。
11:02
When a kid comes to school, you give them a free meal.
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当孩子上学时, 你给他们一顿免费餐。
11:05
And what we've seen
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而我们所看到的是,
11:07
is we've seen this idea kind of take off,
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我们已经看到了这种想法的腾飞,
11:10
especially since the pandemic.
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尤其是自大流行以来。
11:12
But during the pandemic,
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但是在疫情期间,
11:14
when a lot of kids were out of school
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当许多孩子失学,
11:16
and a lot of governments were dealing with their crisis,
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许多政府 都在应对危机时,
11:18
this idea emerged as something that could address that.
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这个想法出现了,可以解决这个问题。
11:24
And a Global School Meals coalition was formed in 2021
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全球校餐联盟 于2021年成立,
11:28
to really help countries learn lessons from each other
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旨在真正帮助各国在如何提供校餐方面相互
11:32
around how to provide school meals.
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吸取教 训。
11:34
And what we've seen is that those school meal programs
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我们所看到 的是,这些学校供餐计划
11:37
are now reaching 480 million children
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目前已惠及
11:41
in the world at the moment.
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全球4.8亿名儿童。
11:42
That is up from 390 million children before the pandemic.
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这比大流行 前的3.9亿儿童有所增加。
11:46
So we've seen an extra 90 million children around the world
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因此,我们已经看到, 全球又有9000万儿童
11:49
get covered by these school meal programs.
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获得了这些学校供餐计划的保障。
11:52
And the reason that this is such a good idea
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这是个好主意的原因是,
11:54
is that homegrown school feeding
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本土学校的供餐每投资1美元
11:56
generates a return of something like nine dollars per dollar invested.
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能产生大约九美元的回报。
12:00
And more importantly,
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更重要的是,
12:01
it's a social protection program that reduces public budget expenditures,
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它是一项社会保护计划,
12:05
it unlocks agricultural development,
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它减少了公共预算支出,促进了农业发展,
12:08
it reduces malnutrition,
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减少了营养不良,
12:10
it reduces healthcare costs, it increases school attendance.
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降低了医疗成本, 提高了入学率。
12:14
And kids learn better when they're learning on a full stomach.
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而且,当孩子们饱腹学习 时,他们的学习效果会更好。
12:19
We've seen 101 countries join this School Meals Coalition
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自2021年成立
12:22
since it was formed in 2021.
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以来,我们已经看到101个 国家加入了这个校餐联盟。
12:24
It is one of the most exciting areas
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它是目前全球发展
12:27
in global development anywhere right now.
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中最令人兴奋的领域之一。
12:30
The other place that with school meals some really exciting things are happening
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另一个发生校餐 真正令人兴奋的事情的地方实际上
12:34
is actually in the United States itself,
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是在美国本身,
12:36
where more than 95,000 schools
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那里
12:38
are serving free lunches to 21 million students each day.
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有超过95,000所学校每天 为2100万名学生提供免费午餐。
12:42
So this idea of free school meals is becoming increasingly popular
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因此,这种免费校餐的想法
12:45
in the United States.
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在美国越来越受欢迎。
12:47
And again, the pandemic had a lot to do with this.
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再说一遍,疫情与此 有很大关系。
12:50
And so this is really a kind of under-the-radar political movement,
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因此,这确实是一种不为 人知的政治运动,
12:55
but one in which I think we're going to see increased traction
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但我认为,在未来几年中,
12:59
in the United States over the coming years.
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我们将看到美国 的吸引力越来越大。
13:01
So this is really an area to watch.
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因此,这确实是一个值得关注的领域。
13:03
But if you're looking for hope in the story of hunger,
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但是,如果你想在饥饿的故事 中寻找希望,那么
13:06
this school meals idea really is just absolutely incredible.
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这个校餐的想法确实 令人难以置信。
13:12
And we're seeing some extraordinary progress happen all around the world.
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而且我们看到世界各地正在取得一些非凡的 进展。
13:17
WPR: Wow, yeah, it's amazing.
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WPR:哇,是的,太神奇了。
13:19
And you took us all over the world in sharing about that,
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你带我们走遍了世界各地 ,分享了这件事,
13:22
but ended in the United States.
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但最终还是以美国告终。
13:23
And so maybe we can stay there for a second.
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所以也许我们可以在 那里待一会儿。
13:25
You also have some interesting things to share there about crime,
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你还有一些关于犯罪的 有趣话要分享,
13:29
which we know the United States experience with crime is sort of varied,
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我们知道美国 的犯罪经历各不相同,
13:32
but what's going on there currently?
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但是目前那里发生了什么?
13:34
AH: So the story of crime in the United States
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AH:因此,美国 的犯罪故事
13:36
is always incredibly complex.
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总是异常复杂。
13:38
Obviously a very politically loaded question as well.
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显然也是一个极具 政治色彩的问题。
13:43
You know, it is a favorite of politicians
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你知道,它是美国
13:48
in the United States
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政客的最爱,
13:49
and really in many senses,
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从许多意义上讲,
13:52
often used as a kind of avatar of the wider political and culture wars.
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它经常被用作更广泛的 政治和文化大战的化身。
13:58
Trying to kind of step backwards from it a little bit, though,
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但是,我们试图稍微向后 退一步,
14:01
and really just concentrate on what's happening in the data,
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真正 专注于数据中发生的事情,
14:05
we're seeing an extraordinary decline in crime
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我们看到美国的犯罪
14:09
in the United States right now.
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率正在 急剧下降。
14:10
That after the spike in crime that happened during the pandemic,
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在大流行期间犯罪 率激增之后,
14:14
we're seeing historic declines across the board
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我们看到暴力犯罪、谋杀、
14:17
on violent crime, murder, rape, robbery, assault.
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强奸、抢劫、袭击的 犯罪率全面下降。
14:21
This year, in 2024 alone,
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今年,仅在2024年,
14:23
we've seen a roughly 16 percent decline in murder rates.
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我们的谋杀率就 下降了约16%。
14:27
And the decline of that magnitude would represent by far
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而如此幅度的下降 将是迄今
14:29
the largest one-year decline ever recorded.
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为止有记录以来最大的 单年降幅。
14:32
The previous record was a nine-percent decline in 1996.
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之前的记录 是1996年下降了9%。
14:36
So murder rates have returned mostly to their pre-2020 levels now
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因此,在2024年的前六个月内,
14:40
within the first six months of 2024,
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谋杀率已基本恢复 到2020年之前的水平,
14:43
being slightly above where it was on average between 2017 and 2019.
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略高 于2017年至2019年的平均水平。
14:48
But if it continues at this rate,
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但是,如果继续保持这种速度,
14:50
then in 2024,
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那么到2024年,
14:52
the murder rate will be below where it was in 2019.
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谋杀率将 低于2019年的水平。
14:56
And that means that we're going to end up this year,
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这意味着我们今年年底的凶 杀率
14:58
probably with the lowest US homicide rate since 2014
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可能会达到自2014年以来 的最低水平,也是有记录以来第五低
15:02
and fifth lowest ever recorded.
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2300
的凶杀率。
15:05
It's not just that we're seeing violent crime decline as well.
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这不仅仅是我们看到的 暴力犯罪也在下降。
15:09
The Major Cities Chiefs Association's latest report on violent crime
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主要城市酋长协会关于美国
15:13
in 58 large US cities and 10 counties
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58个大城市和10个县 暴力犯罪的最新报告
15:15
shows a 7.7 percent overall decline in the first quarter of 2024,
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显示,2024年第一季度 总体下降7.7%,
15:20
with homicide down.
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凶杀案有所下降。
15:22
Similar figures there,
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那里的数字相似,
15:24
rape down 16.6 percent,
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强奸案下降了16.6%,
15:25
robbery down three percent
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1300
抢劫案下降了3%,
15:26
and aggravated assault down by eight percent.
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严重袭击 下降了8%。
15:29
There are a lot of people who say that this data is somehow suspect
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很多人说这些数据 在某种程度上是可疑的,
15:34
because there is underreporting of crime that is happening right now,
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因为对目前正在发生 的犯罪的举报不足,
15:37
and in some respects that is true.
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在某些方面确实如此。
15:41
Not as many crimes are reported now as in the past.
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5000
15:46
But it is not a problem with underreporting from agencies
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但是,美国各地机构报告
15:50
around the United States,
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1933
不足并不是问题,
15:52
that there was a methodological change back in 2021 by the FBI
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4500
联邦调查局早在2021年就 改变了方法,
15:56
that resulted in a blip.
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结果出现了短暂的变化。
15:58
But most of US agencies, US law enforcement agencies,
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但是大多数美国机构, 即美国执法机构,
16:01
are now reporting their full crime data.
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1933
现在都在报告 其完整的犯罪数据。
16:03
So this is not to say
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因此,这并不是
16:05
that the crime problem has been solved in the US,
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说美国 已经解决了犯罪问题,
16:07
but it is very, very encouraging.
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但这非常令人鼓舞。
16:11
It says that things are returning back to normal,
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它说情况 正在恢复正常,
16:14
that the crime spike during the pandemic was an anomaly.
320
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大流行期间的犯罪激增 是一种反常现象。
16:19
It wasn't some kind of structural shift in how the United States operates.
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这不是美国运作方式 的某种结构性转变。
16:24
And what most people don't realize is that the United States, in fact,
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而大多数人没有意识到 的是,事实上,
16:28
now is safer at any point than it has been in many decades.
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美国现在在任何时候都 比几十年来更安全。
16:34
Certainly, if you're looking at the data.
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当然,如果你在看数据。
16:36
And that should be something that should be celebrated and encouraged
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这应该是政治走廊 双方都应该
16:39
on both sides of the political aisle.
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庆祝和鼓励的事情。
16:42
WPR: Well, you've shared stories with us so far that,
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WPR:嗯,到目前为止,你已经 和我们分享了故事,
16:44
all of these stories have been about hopeful, promising things.
328
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所有这些故事都是 关于充满希望、充满希望的事物。
16:47
But I think to end, there's a story about a major win for tolerance,
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但我认为,归根结底,有个故事 讲述了亚洲在宽容
16:53
social tolerance in Asia
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和社会宽容方面取得的重大胜利,
16:55
that feels like a really hopeful place to finish this off.
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感觉这是一个非常有希望的结局。
16:58
So what's happening there?
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那么那里发生了什么?
17:00
AH: So the reason that we've obviously --
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啊:所以我们之所以很明显——
17:03
I think the reason that we call this series “the News that We Missed”
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我认为我们之所以称 这个系列为 “我们错过的新闻”,
17:07
is because most of the news that we miss tends to be good news,
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是因为我们错过的 大多数新闻 往往都是好消息,
17:11
that the media -- that "if it bleeds, it leads"
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而媒体—— “如果它流血,它就会领先”
17:13
isn't just a colloquialism coined by some cutthroat tabloid editor.
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不只是某个残酷的小报编辑创造 的口语主义。
17:17
It's a potent, commercial reality for most media organizations
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对于当今世界上大多数媒体组织
17:23
in the world today.
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来说,这是一个强大的商业现实。
17:25
So this conversation might feel like it is heavily skewed
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因此,这种对话可能感觉 像是严重偏向
17:28
or heavily weighted in favor of stories of progress,
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或过分偏重于进展 的故事,
17:31
well, almost entirely in favor of stories of progress.
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好吧,几乎完全倾向于进步 的故事。
17:35
But that's just because these stories just don't get nearly as much visibility.
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但这仅仅是因为这些故事 的知名度几乎没有那么高。
17:40
So kind of in that spirit,
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因此,本着这种精神,
17:42
the story that I really wanted to finish with here,
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我真正想在这里讲的故事,
17:46
which you've asked me about,
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正如你问过我的那样,
17:47
is what’s happening with same-sex marriage
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是亚洲同性婚姻
17:51
and wider kind of tolerance
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和对LGBTQI+社区的更广泛容忍
17:53
for LGBTQI+ communities in Asia.
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正在发生的事情。
17:58
Now if you look at a map of the world
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现在,如果你看一下世界上
18:03
of where countries have legalized same-sex marriage,
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哪些国家将同性婚姻 合法化的地图,到目前为止,
18:05
38 countries have legalized same-sex marriage so far.
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已有38个国家将 同性婚姻合法化。
18:09
And almost all of that has happened in the 21st century.
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而几乎所有这些都发生 在21世纪。
18:11
North America, South America,
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北美、南美、
18:14
Europe and then down here in Australasia.
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欧洲,然后在大洋洲。
18:19
But really, where there's still a lot of work to be done
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但实际上,在非洲和亚洲,
18:22
is in Africa and Asia.
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还有很多工作要做。
18:24
But in Asia this year, we've seen some really encouraging stories.
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但是在今年的亚洲,我们看到了 一些非常令人鼓舞的故事。
18:27
And on top of that list is Thailand's legalization of same-sex marriage.
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排在首位的是泰国的同性婚姻 合法化。
18:32
On the 18th of June, their Senate voted 130 to four
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6月18日, 他们的参议院以130票
18:36
to pass the same-sex marriage bill.
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对4票通过了同性婚姻法案。
18:38
And that means that Thailand,
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这意味着拥有
18:40
which is home to over 70 million people,
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超过7000万人口的泰国
18:42
becomes the first country in Southeast Asia, the third in Asia,
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成为东南亚第一个 承认同性关系的国家,亚洲的第三个国家,
18:45
and as I said before, the 38th country in the world,
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正如我之前所说,
18:48
to recognize same-sex relationships.
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也是世界上第38个 承认同性关系的国家。
18:51
This is a huge milestone moment for LGBTQI+ people in Thailand.
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对于泰国LGBTQI+人群来说, 这是一个重要的里程碑时刻。
18:56
There are an estimated 3.7 million to four million people
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据估计,该国有370万 至400万
19:00
who identify as LGBTQI+ in that country.
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人认同自己是LGBTQI+。
19:04
And while globally it has a reputation for tolerance for these communities,
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尽管它在全球范围内 以容忍这些社区而闻名,但在
19:10
legally, they haven't been recognized until now.
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法律上,他们直到现在才得到 承认。
19:13
This is a mixed picture.
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这是一幅喜忧参半的局面。
19:15
There are many Asian countries where discrimination still exists
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在许多亚洲 国家,歧视仍然存在,
19:19
and is still deeply entrenched.
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并且仍然根深蒂固。
19:22
But I think this year what we're starting to see
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但我认为,今年我们开始看到 的是,我们开始看到
19:24
is we're starting to see shifts that that victory,
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转变,这场胜利,
19:27
particularly in Thailand,
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尤其是在泰国,
19:29
maybe signals a shift for the region as a whole.
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可能预示着整个地区的转变。
19:31
And this is an area to watch out for in the future.
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这是将 来需要注意的领域。
19:34
There is every likelihood that Asia, more generally,
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总体而言, 在未来五到十年内,
19:38
will become more generally tolerant, both legally and culturally,
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亚洲很有可能 在法律和文化上
19:44
within the next five to 10 years.
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变得更加普遍宽容。
19:46
And that's something that we'll be tracking as well.
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这也是我们要跟踪的问题。
19:48
WPR: Well, it could actually be another name for this series,
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WPR:嗯,它实际上可能是这个系列的 另一个名字,
19:51
because I feel like with everything you've said,
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因为我觉得 无论你说什么,
19:53
the reaction it's brought out of me is sort of wow,
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它带给 我的反应都有点哇, 还有这种敬畏感、
19:56
And this sense of awe and the goodness of people
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人和人类的善良
19:59
and humanity and the progress our world is making.
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以及我们的世界正在取得的进步。
20:02
We're so grateful to you for coming to share this with us today
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我们非常感谢你今天 来和我们分享这篇文章
20:05
and for your talks.
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以及你的会谈。
20:07
I feel like there's always an opportunity for us
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我觉得,当我们收到你的来信时,
20:09
to learn something incredible about what's happening around us
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我们总 有机会从周围 发生的事情中
20:12
when we hear from you,
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学到一些不可思议的东西,
20:13
and we're excited to have you do this with us every few months
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我们很高兴你每隔几个月就会
20:17
and have you back here to share more of these stories, which we know,
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和我们 一起做这件事,让你回到这里分享 更多这样的故事,我们知道,
20:20
what you shared today is just a fraction of what you've uncovered.
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你今天分享 的只是你所发现内容的一小部分。
20:23
So see you back here soon.
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所以很快回来见。
20:26
AH: Thanks, Whitney.
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啊:谢谢,惠特尼。
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