The Transformative Potential of AGI — and When It Might Arrive | Shane Legg and Chris Anderson | TED
208,072 views ・ 2023-12-07
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翻译人员: Yip Yan Yeung
校对人员: Yanyan Hong
克里斯·安德森(Chris Anderson):
00:04
Chris Anderson: Shane, give us
a snapshot of you growing up
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沙恩(Shane),请你
简短介绍一下你的成长历程,
00:06
and what on Earth led you to get
interested in artificial intelligence?
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你到底为什么
会对人工智能感兴趣呢?
00:10
Shane Legg: Well, I got my first
home computer on my 10th birthday,
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沙恩·莱格(Shane Legg):
我在十岁生日那天
收到了我的第一台家用电脑,
00:15
and I --
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而我——
00:16
this was before the internet
and everything.
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那时互联网和这一切还没出现。
00:18
So you couldn't just go
and surf the web and so on.
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你不能就这么上网冲浪等等。
00:21
You had to actually make stuff
yourself and program.
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你得真的自己动手做东西、写程序。
00:24
And so I started programming,
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于是我开始了编程,
00:25
and I discovered that in this computer
there was a world,
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发现这台计算机里有着一个世界,
00:29
I could create a world,
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我可以创造出一个世界,
00:30
I could create little agents
that would run around
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我可以做出跑来跑去、
互相追逐、干活等等的小智能体。
00:33
and chase each other
and do things and so on.
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00:35
And I could sort of,
bring this whole universe to life.
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某种程度上我可以实现整个宇宙。
00:38
And there was sort of that spark
of creativity that really captivated me
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创造力的火花让我无法自拔,
00:42
and sort of, I think
that was really the seeds
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我认为这就埋下了我兴趣的种子,后来
00:45
of my interest that later grew
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00:46
into an interest
in artificial intelligence.
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长成了对人工智能的兴趣。
00:49
CA: Because in your standard education,
you had some challenges there.
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CA:听说你在传统教育中遇到了一些困难。
00:53
SL: Yeah, I was dyslexic as a child.
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SL:是的,我小时候有阅读障碍。
00:56
And so they were actually
going to hold me back a year
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所以在我十岁的时候,
他们让我推后一年,
01:00
when I was 10 years old,
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01:02
and they sent me off
to get my IQ tested to sort of,
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把我送去测智商,
01:04
you know, assess how bad the problem was.
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评估一下问题有多严重。
01:07
And they discovered I had
an exceptionally high IQ.
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然后他们发现我的智商格外地高。
01:10
And then they were a little bit confused
about what was going on.
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他们有点疑惑这是什么情况。
01:13
And fortunately, at that time,
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所幸当时
01:15
there was somebody in the town I lived in
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我居住的小镇里
01:17
who knew how to test for dyslexia.
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有人知道如何测试阅读障碍。
01:19
And it turns out I wasn't actually
of limited intelligence.
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结果我并不是智力有限。
01:22
I was dyslexic, and that was the issue.
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而是患有阅读障碍,这就是问题所在。
01:25
CA: You had reason
from an early age to believe
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CA:你从小就有理由相信
01:27
that our standard assumptions
about intelligence might be off a bit.
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我们对智力的普遍认知可能是错的。
01:31
SL: Well, I had reason, from an early age,
to sometimes doubt authority.
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SL:嗯,我从小就有理由质疑权威。
01:35
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:36
You know, if the teacher thinks
you're dumb, maybe it's not true.
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如果老师认为你很傻,
可能并不是如此。
01:39
Maybe there are other things going on.
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也许还有其他情况。
01:41
But I think it also created in me
an interest in intelligence
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但我认为这样的儿时经历
也在我心中建立起了对智力的兴趣。
01:46
when I sort of had
that experience as a child.
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01:49
CA: So you're credited by many
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CA:许多人
01:50
as coining the term
“artificial general intelligence,” AGI.
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认为你创造了
“通用人工智能”一词,即 AGI。
01:54
Tell us about 2001, how that happened.
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说说 2001 年吧,那是怎么发生的。
01:57
SL: Yeah, so I was approached
by someone called Ben Goertzel
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SL:是的,有个叫
本·戈策尔(Ben Goertzel)的人
02:00
who I'd actually been working with,
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找到了我,我之后也在与他共事,
02:02
and he was going to write a book,
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当时他打算写一本书,
02:04
and he was thinking
about a book on AI systems
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他在考虑写一本关于 AI 系统的书,
02:08
that would be much more
general and capable,
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它会更通用、更强大,
02:10
rather than focusing
on very narrow things.
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而不是专注于非常狭窄的领域。
02:13
And he was thinking
about a title for the book.
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他正在思考这本书的标题。
02:15
So I suggested to him, "If you're
interested in very general systems,
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我向他建议:“如果你
对很通用的系统感兴趣,
02:18
call it artificial general intelligence."
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那就叫它通用人工智能吧。”
02:20
And so he went with that.
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于是他就接受了。
02:21
And then him and various other people
started using the term online
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然后他和好多人开始在线上
02:24
and the internet,
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和互联网上使用这个词,
02:26
and then it sort of became
popularized from there.
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从此风靡了起来。
后来我们发现有个叫
迈克·加罗德(Mike Garrod)的人,
02:28
We later discovered there was
someone called Mike Garrod,
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他在 97 年的一份安全纳米技术
期刊上发表了一篇论文。
02:31
who published a paper in a security
nanotech journal in '97.
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02:35
So he is actually the first person
to have used the term.
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他其实是第一个使用该术语的人。
02:38
But it turns out he pretty much meant
the same thing as us anyway.
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但他想表达的意思和我们的一样。
02:41
CA: It was kind of an idea
whose time had come,
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CA:发现其中潜力的时代到了。
02:44
to recognize the potential here.
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02:46
I mean, you made an early prediction
that many people thought was bonkers.
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你在很多人认为是痴人说梦的时候
就先人一步做出了预测。
02:50
What was that?
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预测了什么?
02:51
SL: Well, in about 2001,
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SL:大约在 2001 年,
02:54
a similar time to when I suggested
this term artificial general intelligence,
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差不多是我提出“通用人工智能”
这个术语的时候,
02:59
I read a book by Ray Kurzweil, actually,
"Age of Spiritual Machines,"
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我读了雷·库兹韦尔(Ray Kurzweil)的
一本书《机器之心》,
03:02
and I concluded that he was
fundamentally right,
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认为他说的很对,
03:06
that computation was likely to grow
exponentially for at least a few decades,
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计算可能会在至少几十年内
呈指数级增长,
03:12
and the amount of data in the world
would grow exponentially
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世界上的数据量
将在几十年内呈指数级增长。
03:15
for a few decades.
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03:16
And so I figured
that if that was going to happen,
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我想,如果真的出现了这种情况,
03:19
then the value of extremely
scalable algorithms
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那么利用这些数据和计算的
高度可扩展算法
03:22
that could harness
all this data and computation
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将会有非常高的价值。
03:26
were going to be very high.
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03:27
And then I also figured
that in the mid 2020s,
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我还发现,到了 2020 年代中期,
03:31
it would be possible then,
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那时候就可以成真了,
03:33
if we had these highly
scalable algorithms,
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我们可以用这些高度可扩展的算法
03:35
to train artificial intelligence systems
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训练人工智能系统,
03:40
on far more data than a human
would experience in a lifetime.
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所用的数据远远超过
人类一生所能经历的数据。
03:43
And so as a result of that,
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因此,我从 2009 年左右
就开始在我的博客中说到这点,
03:44
you can find it on my blog
from about 2009
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03:48
I think it's the first time
I publicly talked about it,
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我觉得那是我第一次
公开谈论这一点,
03:51
I predicted a 50 percent
chance of AGI by 2028.
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我预计 2028 年实现 AGI 的
可能性将达到 50%。
03:55
I still believe that today.
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时至今日我依旧如此认为。
03:58
CA: That's still your date.
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CA:你觉得还是这个时间点。
04:00
How did you define AGI back then,
and has your definition changed?
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以前你是怎么定义 AGI 的?
你的定义改变了吗?
04:04
SL: Yeah, I didn't have a particularly
precise definition at the beginning.
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SL:嗯,一开始
我没有特别精准的定义。
04:09
It was really just an idea of systems
that would just be far more general.
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只是“系统”的概念,
通用得多的系统。
04:13
So rather than just playing
Go or chess or something,
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不仅仅是下围棋、下象棋等等,
04:16
rather than actually be able to do many,
many different things.
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不仅仅是做各种各样的事。
04:19
The definition I use now
is that it's a system
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我现在使用的定义是一个系统,
04:21
that can do all the cognitive
kinds of tasks
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可以完成人类可以完成的
所有认知任务,可能还要更多,
04:24
that people can do, possibly more,
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04:26
but at least it can do
the sorts of cognitive tasks
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但至少它可以完成人类
通常能完成的那种认知任务。
04:29
that people can typically do.
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04:31
CA: So talk about just
the founding of DeepMind
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CA:谈谈 DeepMind 的成立
04:34
and the interplay between you
and your cofounders.
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还有你和你的联合创始人之间的互动。
04:38
SL: Right. So I went to London
to the place called the Gatsby Unit,
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SL:好。我去了伦敦,去了一个叫做
“盖茨比计算神经科学中心”的地方,
04:42
which studies theoretical neuroscience
and machine learning.
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那里研究理论神经科学和机器学习。
04:47
And I was interested in learning
the relationships
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我感兴趣的是研究
04:49
between what we understand about the brain
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我们对大脑的理解
04:51
and what we know from machine learning.
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和我们从机器学习中的所得
之间的关系。
04:53
So that seemed like a really good place.
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所以应该是来对了。
04:55
And I met Demis Hassabis there.
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我在此遇到了戴密斯·哈萨比斯
(Demis Hassabis)。
04:57
He had the same postdoc supervisor as me,
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我和他的博士后导师是同一位,
04:59
and we got talking.
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所以就聊了起来。
05:00
And he convinced me
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他说服我是时候创办一家公司了。
05:03
that it was the time
to start a company then.
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05:05
That was in 2009 we started talking.
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我们聊起来的时候是 2009 年。
05:08
And I was a little bit skeptical.
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我有点怀疑。
05:09
I thought AGI was still
a bit too far away,
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我认为 AGI 还远在天边,
05:13
but he thought the time was right,
so we decided to go for it.
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但他认为时机已经成熟,
所以我们决定开干。
05:16
And then a friend of his
was Mustafa Suleyman.
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他的朋友穆斯塔法·苏莱曼
(Mustafa Suleyman)也加入了。
05:20
CA: And specifically,
one of the goals of the company
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CA:具体地说,公司的目标之一
05:23
was to find a pathway to AGI?
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就是找到通往 AGI 的途径吗?
05:25
SL: Absolutely.
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SL:没错。
05:26
On our first business plan
that we were circulating
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我们在 2010 年为寻求投资
发布的第一份商业企划
05:30
when we were looking
for investors in 2010,
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05:33
it had one sentence
on the front cover and it said,
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封面上有一句话:
05:36
"Build the world's first artificial
general intelligence."
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“打造世界上第一个通用人工智能。”
05:38
So that was right in from the beginning.
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从一开始就是如此。
05:42
CA: Even though you knew
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CA:即使你知道
05:43
that building that AGI might actually have
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打造这样的 AGI 可能会
05:47
apocalyptic consequences
in some scenarios?
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在某种情况下导致灾难性后果?
05:50
SL: Yeah.
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SL:是的。
05:52
So it's a deeply
transformative technology.
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它是一项极具颠覆性的技术。
05:57
I believe it will happen.
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我相信它会成真。
05:59
I think that, you know,
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我认为,
06:01
these algorithms can be understood
and they will be understood at the time.
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这些算法可以被理解,
届时也真的会被理解。
06:04
And I think that intelligence
is fundamentally
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我认为智能
06:07
an incredibly valuable thing.
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是一个相当有价值的东西。
06:10
Everything around us at the moment --
the building we’re in,
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那时我们周围的一切——
我们所在的大楼、
06:13
the words I’m using, the concepts we have,
the technology around us --
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我使用的文字、我们拥有的概念、
我们身边的技术,
06:17
you know, all of these things
are being affected by intelligence.
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这些东西都会受到智能的影响。
06:20
So having intelligence in machines
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让机器拥有智能
06:23
is an incredibly valuable
thing to develop.
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是非常值得开发的。
06:27
And so I believe it is coming.
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所以我相信它会来的。
06:29
Now when a very, very
powerful technology arises,
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当一项非常非常强大的技术出现时,
06:33
there can be a range
of different outcomes.
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可能会产生一系列不同的结果。
06:36
Things could go very, very well,
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事情可能进展得非常非常顺利,
06:38
but there is a possibility things
can go badly as well.
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但也有可能会翻车。
06:40
And that was something I was aware of
also from about 20 years ago.
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这也是我在大约 20 年前
就意识到的一点。
06:46
CA: So talk about, as DeepMind developed,
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CA:谈谈随着 DeepMind 的发展,
06:49
was there a moment where you really felt,
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有没有哪一刻你真的觉得:
06:53
"My goodness, we're onto
something unbelievably powerful?"
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“天啊,我们正在研究强大得惊人的东西?”
06:57
Like, was it AlphaGo, that whole story,
or what was the moment for you?
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是做 AlphaGo 的时候吗?
还是哪个时刻?
07:01
SL: Yeah, there were many
moments over the years.
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SL:是的,这些年来有很多时刻。
07:04
One was when we did the Atari games.
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一个是我们做 Atari 游戏的时候。
07:07
Have you seen those videos
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你有没有看过那些视频,
07:08
where we had an algorithm
that could learn to play multiple games
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我们有一个算法,
可以学会玩多款游戏,
07:11
without being programmed
for any specific game?
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而无需为其中
任意一款游戏专门编程?
07:14
There were some exciting moments there.
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那时有一些激动人心的时刻。
07:17
Go, of course, was a really
exciting moment.
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AlphaGo 当然也是
一个激动人心的时刻。
07:20
But I think the thing that's really
captured my imagination,
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但我认为,真正吸引我的想象力、
07:24
a lot of people's imagination,
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很多人的想象力的是
07:26
is the phenomenal scaling
of language models in recent years.
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近年来语言模型的惊人扩展。
07:29
I think we can see they're systems
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我们可以看出,它们这些系统
07:31
that really can start
to do some meaningful fraction
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确实可以开始完成一部分
07:35
of the cognitive tasks that people can do.
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人类可以完成的有意义的认知任务。
07:37
CA: Now, you were working on those models,
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CA:你正在研究这些模型,
07:39
but were you, to some extent, blindsided
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但在某种程度上,你有没有
07:41
by OpenAI's, sort of,
sudden unveiling of ChatGPT?
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被 OpenAI 突然推出的
ChatGPT 打得措手不及?
07:47
SL: Right.
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SL:对。
07:49
We were working on them and you know,
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我们正在研究它们,
07:50
the transformer model
was invented in Google,
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Transformer 模型是谷歌研发的,
07:53
and we had teams who were building big
transformer language models and so on.
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我们有团队正在构建
大型 Transformer 语言模型。
07:58
CA: Google acquired DeepMind
at some point in this journey.
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CA:谷歌在这段时间里
收购了 DeepMind。
08:01
SL: Yeah, exactly.
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SL:是的,没错。
08:03
And so what I didn't expect
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我没想到的是
08:07
was just how good a model could get
training purely on text.
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单凭文本训练得出的模型能有多好。
08:11
I thought you would
need more multimodality.
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我以为需要多模态的数据。
08:14
You'd need images, you'd need sound,
you'd need video and things like that.
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需要图像、声音、视频等等。
08:18
But due to the absolutely
vast quantities of text,
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但由于文本的海量存在,
08:22
it can sort of compensate
for these things to an extent.
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可以从某种程度上弥补这些问题。
08:25
I still think you see aspects of this.
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我觉得这是可以看到一些迹象的。
08:28
I think language models
tend to be weak in areas
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我认为语言模型在不易
以文本形式表达的领域相对薄弱。
08:31
that are not easily expressed in text.
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08:34
But I don’t think
this is a fundamental limitation.
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但我不认为这是一个根本性缺陷。
08:36
I think we're going to see these language
models expanding into video
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我们会见证这些语言模型
扩展至视频、
08:41
and images and sound and all these things,
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图像、声音等等,
08:44
and these things will be overcome in time.
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这些问题迟早会被攻克。
08:46
CA: So talk to us, Shane,
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CA:和我们讲讲,沙恩,
08:47
about the things that you, at this moment,
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谈谈你此刻
08:50
passionately feel that the world needs
to be thinking about more cogently.
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迫切认为这个世界
该更审慎地思考的是什么。
08:55
SL: Right.
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SL:好。
08:56
So I think that very, very powerful,
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我认为非常、非常强大、
08:59
very intelligent artificial
intelligence is coming.
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非常智慧的人工智能即将到来。
09:03
I think that this is very, very likely.
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我认为很有可能。
09:06
I don't think it's coming today.
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我觉得不会今天到来。
09:07
I don't think it's coming next
year or the year after.
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我觉得不会明年或者后年到来。
09:10
It's probably a little bit
further out than that.
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有可能更久一点。
09:12
CA: 2028?
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CA:2028?
09:14
SL: 2028, that's a 50 percent chance.
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SL:2028,这是 50% 的可能。
09:16
So, you know, if it doesn't
happen in 2028,
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如果 2028 年没有发生,
09:18
I'm not going to be surprised, obviously.
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我显然也不会感到惊讶。
09:20
CA: And when you say powerful,
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CA:你说“强大”,
09:21
I mean there's already
powerful AI out there.
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现在已经有强大的 AI 了。
09:24
But you're saying basically a version
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但你的意思是
某种通用人工智能即将到来。
09:25
of artificial general
intelligence is coming.
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09:28
SL: Yeah.
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SL:是的。
09:29
CA: So give us a picture
of what that could look like.
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CA:给我们描绘一下这样的图景吧。
09:31
SL: Well, if you had
an artificial general intelligence,
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SL:嗯,如果你有了通用人工智能,
09:34
you could do all sorts of amazing things.
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你可以做各种奇妙的事情。
09:37
Just like human intelligence is able
to do many, many amazing things.
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就像人类智能
能做很多奇妙的事情一样。
09:40
So it's not really about a specific thing,
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这不是某一件事,
09:42
that's the whole point of the generality.
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而是“通用”的意义。
09:44
But to give you one example,
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但举个例子,
09:46
we developed the system AlphaFold,
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我们开发了 AlphaFold 系统,
09:48
which will take a protein and compute,
basically, the shape of that protein.
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它能根据一种蛋白质
计算出它的形状。
09:54
And that enables you to do
all sorts of research
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这样你就能进行各种研究,
09:57
into understanding biological processes,
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了解生物学过程、开发药物等等。
09:58
developing medicines
and all kinds of things like that.
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10:01
Now, if you had an AGI system,
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如果你有了一个 AGI 系统,
10:03
instead of requiring
what we had at DeepMind,
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而不是像 DeepMind 这样的配置,
10:05
about roughly 30 world-class scientists
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大约 30 位世界一流的科学家
10:08
working for about three years
to develop that,
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花了差不多三年的时间
开发这个系统,
10:11
maybe you could develop that
with just a team
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也许你可以在一年内
以一个由少数科学家组成的团队
10:13
of a handful of scientists in one year.
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开发出这个系统。
10:16
So imagine these, sort of,
AlphaFold-level developments
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想象一下世界各地定期
10:19
taking place around the world
on a regular basis.
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进行 AlphaFold 级别的开发。
10:23
This is the sort of thing
that AGI could enable.
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这就是 AGI 可以实现的东西。
10:25
CA: So within months of AGI
being with us, so to speak,
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CA:我们一旦用上几个月的 AGI,
10:30
it's quite possible that some
of the scientific challenges
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很有可能人类纠缠了几十年、
10:33
that humans have wrestled with
for decades, centuries, if you like,
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也许几百年的科学挑战,
10:37
will start to tumble in rapid succession.
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就会被迅速逐个击破。
10:40
SL: Yeah, I think it'll open up
all sorts of amazing possibilities.
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SL:是的,我认为它会
开辟各种奇妙的可能。
10:44
And it could be really
a golden age of humanity
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这可能是一个真正的人类黄金时代,
10:48
where human intelligence,
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1835
人类智能,
10:50
which is aided and extended
with machine intelligence,
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在机器智能的辅助和扩展下,
10:54
enables us to do all sorts
of fantastic things
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使我们能够做到各种神奇的事情,
10:57
and solve problems that previously
were just intractable.
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解决以前难以解决的问题。
11:02
CA: So let's come back to that.
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CA:我们之后再回来聊这点。
11:03
But I think you also,
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但我认为,
11:05
you're not like,
an irredeemable optimist only,
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你不像一个无可救药的乐观主义者,
11:07
you see a potential for it to go
very badly in a different direction.
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你还是看到了它跑偏翻车的可能。
11:11
Talk about what that pathway
could look like.
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谈谈那条路会是什么样子。
11:14
SL: Well, yeah, I want to explain.
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SL:嗯,是的,我想解释一下。
11:17
I don't believe the people
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我不相信那些坚信一切顺利的人,
11:18
who are sure that it's going
to go very well,
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2253
11:20
and I don't believe the people
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我也不相信
11:22
who are sure that it’s going
to go very, very badly.
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2461
那些坚信一定会翻车的人。
11:24
Because what we’re talking about
is an incredibly profound transition.
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4046
因为我们讨论的
是一个非常重大的转变。
11:29
It's like the arrival of human
intelligence in the world.
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3211
这就像人类智能降临世界一样。
11:32
This is another intelligence
arriving in the world.
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2961
另一个智能来到了这个世界。
11:35
And so it is an incredibly
deep transition,
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3045
这是一个极其深刻的转变,
11:38
and we do not fully understand
all the implications
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3128
我们并不能完全了解
其中含义和后果。
11:41
and consequences of this.
245
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11:43
And so we can't be certain
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1418
因此,我们无法确定
11:44
that it's going to be this,
that or the other thing.
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2461
它会这样、那样还是怎样。
11:47
So we have to be open-minded
about what may happen.
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3211
所以我们必须以开放的心态
看待可能发生的情况。
11:51
I have some optimism because I think
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1919
我有点乐观,因为我认为,
11:53
that if you want to make a system safe,
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3086
如果你想确保系统的安全,
11:56
you need to understand
a lot about that system.
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2669
你必须得非常了解这个系统。
11:59
You can't make an airplane safe
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如果你不知道飞机是如何运作的,
12:00
if you don't know
about how airplanes work.
253
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你就无法保证飞机的安全。
12:03
So as we get closer to AGI,
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2252
随着我们越来越接近 AGI,
12:06
we will understand more
and more about these systems,
255
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2502
我们会越来越了解这些系统,
12:08
and we will see more ways
to make these systems safe,
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我们会看到更多
保障这些系统安全的方式,
12:11
make highly ethical AI systems.
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2712
打造高度符合伦理的 AI 系统。
12:15
But there are many things
we don't understand about the future.
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3587
但是我们对未来
还是有很多不理解的地方。
12:18
So I have to accept that there is
a possibility that things may go badly
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5297
所以我必须接受
有偏离轨道的可能性,
12:23
because I don't know
what's going to happen.
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2085
因为我不知道会发生什么。
12:26
I can't know that about the future
in such a big change.
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3336
在这场巨变中,
我不知道未来会发生什么。
12:29
And even if the probability of something
going bad is quite small,
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4839
即使出岔子的可能性很小,
12:34
we should take this extremely seriously.
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我们也应该非常慎重地看待这个问题。
12:36
CA: Paint a scenario
of what going bad could look like.
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CA:想象一个跑偏的场景是什么样的。
12:39
SL: Well, it's hard to do
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SL:嗯,很难,
12:41
because you're talking about systems
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1752
因为我们说的是
12:43
that potentially have superhuman
intelligence, right?
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3503
可能拥有超人类智能的系统,对吧?
12:46
So there are many ways in which
things would go bad in the world.
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4463
在这世上跑偏的方式有很多。
12:51
People sometimes point to, I don't know,
engineered pathogens, right?
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人们有时会点名
人工培养病原体,对吧?
12:54
Maybe a superintelligence could
design an engineered pathogen.
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3753
也许超级智能可以
设计出一种人工培养病原体。
12:58
It could be much more mundane things.
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2253
可能是更平平无奇的事情。
13:00
Maybe with AGI, you know,
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也许有了 AGI,
13:03
it gets used to destabilize
democracy in the world,
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它会被用于破坏世界民主的稳定,
13:07
with, you know, propaganda
or all sorts of other things like that.
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通过宣传等等方式。
13:10
We don't know --
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我们不知道……
13:12
CA: That one might already have happened.
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2002
CA:可能已经发生了。
13:14
SL: There might be happening
a bit already.
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2002
SL:可能已经发生了一些了。
13:16
But, you know, there may
be a lot more of this
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但是,如果我们有了更强大的系统,
可能会出现更多这样的情况。
13:18
if we have more powerful systems.
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13:19
So there are many ways in which
societies can be destabilized.
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破坏社会稳定的方式有很多。
13:22
And you can see that in the history books.
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2043
你可以在历史书中看到这一点。
13:24
CA: I mean, Shane, if you
could have asked all humans,
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CA:沙恩,如果你问每个人,
13:27
say, 15 years ago, OK,
we can open a door here,
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4338
假设 15 年前,
我们可以在这里打开一扇门,
13:31
and opening this door could lead
to the best-ever outcomes for humanity.
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3670
打开这扇门可以为人类带来
有史以来最好的结果。
13:35
But there's also a meaningful chance,
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1793
但是,也有相当大的可能,
13:37
let's say it's more than five percent,
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2544
比方说,超过 5%,
13:39
that we could actually
destroy our civilization.
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2753
我们可能会摧毁我们的文明。
13:43
I mean, isn't there a chance
that most people would have actually said,
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3337
难道大多数人不会这么说:
13:46
"Don't you dare open that damn door.
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1752
“不许打开那扇门。
13:48
Let's wait."
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1168
我们等着吧。”
13:50
SL: If I had a magic wand
and I could slow things down,
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SL:如果我有一根魔杖,能减慢速度,
13:54
I would use that magic wand, but I don't.
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2336
我会用那根魔杖,但我没有。
13:56
There are dozens of companies,
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1835
有几十家公司,
13:58
well, there's probably
10 companies in the world now
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2461
现在全球可能有 10 家公司,
14:01
that can develop the most
cutting-edge models, including, I think,
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可以开发出最前沿的模型,包括
14:05
some national intelligence services
who have secret projects doing this.
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4087
一些国家情报机构
通过秘密项目进行研发。
14:10
And then there's, I don't know,
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1502
还有一大堆公司在开发
落后一代的东西。
14:11
dozens of companies that can develop
something that's a generation behind.
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3503
14:15
And remember, intelligence
is incredibly valuable.
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3379
请记住,智能非常宝贵。
14:18
It's incredibly useful.
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非常有用。
14:19
We're doing this
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我们之所以这样做,
14:21
because we can see all kinds of value
that can be created in this
302
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3086
是因为我们可以看到
出于各种原因在此开发过程中
14:24
for all sorts of reasons.
303
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1752
能够创造的价值。
14:25
How do you stop this process?
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2836
你要如何停下这个进程?
14:28
I don't see any realistic plan
that I've heard of,
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2836
我没有听说过任何切合实际的计划
14:31
of stopping this process.
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1209
能够停下这个进程。
14:32
Maybe we can --
307
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1210
也许我们可以——
14:34
I think we should think
about regulating things.
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2294
我认为我们应该考虑加以监管。
14:36
I think we should do things like this
as we do with every powerful technology.
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3670
我认为面临任何强大科技
都应该这么做。
14:40
There's nothing special about AI here.
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1877
AI 并不是什么特例。
14:41
People talk about, oh, you know,
how dare you talk about regulating this?
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3462
人们会说,
你怎么敢说要监管它们啊?
14:45
No, we regulate powerful technologies
all the time in the interests of society.
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3837
不,为了社会的利益,
我们一直在监管强大的技术。
14:49
And I think this is a very important
thing that we should be looking at.
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3420
我认为这是我们应该考虑的
一件非常重要的事情。
14:52
CA: It's kind of the first time we have
this superpowerful technology out there
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3754
CA:这好像是第一次
我们有了超级强大的技术,
14:56
that we literally don't understand
in full how it works.
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3086
但我们并不完全了解
它是如何运作的。
14:59
Is the most single, most important thing
we must do, in your view,
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3921
在你看来,我们该做的
最重要的那一件事,
15:03
to understand, to understand better
what on Earth is going on,
317
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4671
是去理解、更好地了解
到底发生了一些什么吗?
15:08
so that we least have a shot
at pointing it in the right direction?
318
908279
3170
让我们至少还有一线希望
将其导向正确的方向。
15:11
SL: There is a lot of energy
behind capabilities at the moment
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3294
SL:目前功能背后消耗了大量的精力,
15:14
because there's a lot of value
in developing the capabilities.
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3045
因为开发功能有很大的价值。
15:17
I think we need to see a lot more energy
going into actual science,
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4504
我认为我们得将更多的精力
投入到实际的科学中,
15:22
understanding how these networks work,
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3128
了解这些网络是如何运作的,
15:25
what they're doing,
what they're not doing,
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它们在做些什么,它们没有做什么,
15:27
where they're likely to fail,
324
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1835
它们可能在哪里崩溃,
15:29
and understanding how we put
these things together
325
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2419
理解我们如何
将这些东西整合在一起,
15:32
so that we're able to find ways
326
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2085
让我们可以找到
15:34
to make these AGI systems
profoundly ethical and safe.
327
934138
4129
让这些 AGI 系统
高度符合伦理又安全的方式。
15:38
I believe it's possible.
328
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1793
我相信这是可能的。
15:40
But we need to mobilize
more people's minds and brains
329
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5505
但是,我们需要鼓动
更多人的思想和大脑
15:46
to finding these solutions
330
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2502
寻找这些解决方案,
15:48
so that we end up in a future
331
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1835
这样我们才能在未来
15:50
where we have incredibly
powerful machine intelligence
332
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3962
拥有极其强大的机器智能,
15:54
that's also profoundly ethical and safe,
333
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2836
而它们也高度符合伦理又安全,
15:57
and it enhances and extends humanity
334
957745
2753
将人类增强、延伸至
16:00
into, I think, a new
golden period for humanity.
335
960539
4296
一个全新的人类黄金时代。
16:05
CA: Shane, thank you so much
for sharing that vision
336
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2460
CA:沙恩,非常感谢你分享这个愿景,
16:08
and coming to TED.
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也感谢你来到 TED。
16:09
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(掌声)
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