What the world can learn from China’s response to the coronavirus | Gary Liu

Transcriber: Ivana Korom Reviewer: Joanna Pietrulewicz

翻译人员: Miya Wong 校对人员: Bruce Wang

克里斯·安德森（Chris Anderson）: 欢迎来到TED Connects

这是我们新的系列线上对话

Chris Anderson: Welcome to TED Connects.

我们试图理解我们当前这个奇怪时刻：

This is a new series of live conversations,

新冠病毒。

每个人都突然改变了他们的生活方式

trying to make sense of this weird moment that we're in:

这是如此令人震惊，如此令人惊讶

coronavirus.

我们都在试图理解这一切，这并不容易。

Everyone's suddenly changing how they live their lives,

我们知道这一点

it's so jolting, it's so startling.

我们只能用我们所知的方式

共同理解这一切

We're all trying to make sense of it, and it ain't easy.

那就是让智慧的人们来这里

That much we know.

We're trying to make sense of this together

相互交谈，相互倾听

试图相互学习

in the only way that we know how,

which is by having wise humans coming on,

虽然我们分隔两地

但在这一时刻我们仍可以凝聚在一起

talking to each other, listening to each other

这正是我们正在努力做的事

trying to learn from each other.

We are apart,

所以，这是由分散在纽约各地的

but we can use this moment to build community together,

虚拟TED团队制作的

and that's what we're trying to do.

目前纽约是这场大流行的主要爆发地之一

So this is being produced by a virtual TED team

所以，对这里的人们来说， 这绝对是一个可怕的时刻

scattered around New York,

欢迎联合主持人加入

currently one of the epicenters of this pandemic.

惠特尼·彭宁顿·罗杰斯（Whitney Pennington Rodgers）

So it's definitely a scary time for people here.

她是我们的时事策展人。

Whitney Pennington Rodgers: 今天我们将稍微关注一下

I'd like to welcome to join me my cohost here,

Whitney Pennington Rodgers.

中国的应对措施。

当2019年年末传出

She's our current affairs curator.

中国武汉暴发异样病毒的消息时

Whitney Pennington Rodgers: We're going to be looking a little bit

我认为很多人对那里发生的情况感到困惑

at China's response today.

When news surfaced about a strange viral outbreak

随后的几个月里

in Wuhan, China

at the very last days of 2019,

我们了解了更多关于现在被称为 新型罐装病毒（COVID-19）的疾病的信息

I think a lot of people were confused about what was going on there,

我们看到中国的情况迅速恶化

and in the months that followed,

而在最近的几周里， 情况发生了戏剧性的好转

we learned more about the disease that's now known as COVID-19,

我认为随着全世界各地的人们

we watched the situation in China quickly worsen

努力应对如何遏制和控制COVID-19的传播

and in the most recent weeks dramatically improve.

我们可以从中国的经历以及

And I think as all of us around the world

他们的应对措施中学到很多经验

grapple with how we can contain and control the spread of COVID-19,

因此，我们非常高兴今天能够邀请到

加里·刘 （Gary Liu） 他是香港南华早报的CEO

there are a lot of lessons we can learn from what China experienced

欢迎来这里分享观点和见解

and how they responded.

So we're really thrilled to be joined today

所以，欢迎Gary

Gary Liu: 感谢邀请

by the CEO of the "South China Morning Post," Gary Liu,

WPR: Gary，感谢你参加我们的节目

在我们深入讨论之前，我认为

who's here to share his perspective and insights.

我很想了解一下

So, welcome Gary.

Gary Liu: Thanks for having me.

你个人，你的亲人以及和你亲近的人

WPR: Hey there, Gary, thanks for being with us.

在这方面你们的情况如何？

And I think before we dive into things,

GL: 情况复杂

I'd love to hear about just how things have been

我们现在在香港

for you personally,

your loved ones, those close to you,

和香港大部分人一样，在家工作

how have you been experiencing this?

实际上，我正在香港的公寓里自我隔离

GL: It's complicated.

So we're here in Hong Kong,

因为我们工作场所出现了确诊病例

I'm working from home, like much of Hong Kong.

所以在过去的一周多时间里

I'm actually self-quarantined in our apartment here in Hong Kong,

以及可能接下来的一周

整个组织都在远程

because there was a confirmed case in our workplace.

居家工作

So over the course of the last week plus,

你知道的，当香港出现第一例确诊病例时

and likely for at least another week plus,

我和我的妻子实际上在美国度假

the entire organization has been distributed

and working from home.

我们在落基山脉休息

You know, when Hong Kong got its first confirmed case,

之后我们很快回到了香港

I was actually back in the United States with my wife,

we were taking a small break in the Rockies,

为了确保在机场关闭前回到香港

and we came back to Hong Kong pretty soon after that

那时

我们在美国的所有家人和朋友

to make sure we got back into Hong Kong before the airports shut.

都给我们发短信，担心香港的情况。

因为中国的形势开始升级

And at that point,

it was all of our family in the United States and friends

人们甚至试图给我们寄送物资

texting us and worrying about how things were in Hong Kong

口罩，消毒剂之类的

as the situation in China started escalating,

现在情况完全相反

and people were sending us, or trying to send us, supplies.

纽约市是我们的家

所以我们当然

对你们目前在城市中所面临

Masks and sanitizer and stuff like that.

And now it's the opposite.

和经历的一切表示同情

我们与我们的朋友和家人保持联系

New York City is our home,

so we certainly empathize

他们在纽约和加利福尼亚的

with what you guys are dealing with right now

一直关注他们的情况

and going through in the city.

试图将装备和物资寄回给他们，

And we are seeing our friends and our family

事实上，在短短几周内

back home in New York and in California

and checking in on them,

情况发生了快速反转

trying to send equipment and materials back to them,

WPR: 你知道的，

我认为这实际上是一个非常有趣的起点

so the script has flipped actually pretty fast

对于许多不在中国的人来说， 这可能是一个很有趣的问题

over just the last couple of weeks.

你知道，站在外部的角度看

WPR: And you know,

I think that's actually a really interesting place to start

看起来在中国发生的事情

似乎像是一种奇迹

and probably a question that a lot of people who aren't in China have,

从这种情况，你知道

一个拥有超过十亿人口的国家

you know, I think from the outside looking in,

it seems as if what's happened in China

从多达8万例病例到现在几乎没有新病例

is kind of miraculous.

That to go from, you know,

you have a country with more than a billion people there,

请告诉我们这是如何做到的

to go from as many as 80,000 cases to nearly zero new cases now,

以帮助我们理解当前的情况

而且，中国究竟是 如何最终走到这一步的？

you know, what can you tell us about how this happened,

GL: 是的，发生了很多事情。

to help us understand the current situation

中国已经处理这个问题已经好几个月了

and just really how China ended up there?

数月的先机，这并不是一件好事

但他们经历了不同的阶段

GL: Yeah, a lot has happened.

China has been dealing with this for several months now.

想来，Whitney，在我深入讨论之前，

有几个重要的注意事项需要提前说明

Several-month head start, that's not a good thing,

首先，我们仍在解析中国发生了什么

but they have gone through several different phases.

I think, Whitney, before I jump into it,

众所周知，信息系统 仍然相对封闭

there are a couple of caveats that are really important to make.

The first one is that we're still parsing what happened in China.

因此，那些我们用来

拼凑中国发生了什么事的许多信息 仍然不完全

The information system, as everyone knows,

is still relatively closed.

随着时间的推移，每一天，每一周

And so a lot of the information that we're using

都有更多的信息

这有助于我们回顾性地了解

to piece together what happened in China is still not fully complete.

早期， 2019年年底

And so with every passing day, every passing week,

发生了什么事情

更好地理解那段时期的情况

there's more information

that allows us to retroactively make sure that we get the picture

但现如今还是发生了很多事情

即使我认为信息共享

of what happened early on in those early days

at the end of 2019,

比初期更加开放

get that picture right.

但今天仍然有许多东西 需要我们仔细研究

And there's still a lot that's happening today,

第二个重要注意事项是

even though I think the information sharing

我认为学习有时会暗示

is much more open than it was early on,

中国所做的一切都是正确和好的

there's still a lot of stuff that we need to parse.

希望其他国家可以学习并应用

And the second important caveat here

is that I think learning sometimes suggests

但这并不是百分之百的

that everything China did was right and good,

当然，中国做了很多正确的事情

and hopefully, other countries can take it and apply it,

如果我们追溯时间线

很显然，他们的决策

阻止了冠状病毒

but that's not 100 percent the case.

China, of course, did a lot that was right,

在整个国家大规模爆发

and if we walked through the time line,

主要限制在一个省份， 大多是在一个城市

I think it would be pretty apparent

the decisions that they made kept the coronavirus

当然，也有很多错误的决策

from really exploding across the entire country

我认为全世界也可以 从中吸取教训

and really limited it to one province and mostly one city.

最重要的是，中国自己也应该吸取教训

因为其中大多数

But there were also many, many missteps,

我们这些专业观察员

and those are things that I think the world can also learn from,

称之为错误的

是因为它们是与该国 体制性的问题有关的

most importantly, China should learn from,

because most of these --

涉及到治理、信息自由流动不足

I think those of us who are professional observers

等等

那些是最初的注意事项

would call missteps,

are because they are systemic issues with the country,

但我认为，从首例病例到现在

because of governance, lack of free information flow,

中国的进步过程及其时机真的令人着迷

stuff like that.

Those are the initial caveats,

but I think the timing of how China progressed

WPR: 是的，我是说

我们现在知道，湖北省

from first case to now has been fascinating.

已经正式解除了为期两个月的封锁

你有什么看法

WPR: Yeah, and I mean,

so we know now that in Hubei province

你觉得在这个时刻做出这样的决定合适吗？

they've officially lifted the two-month lockdown.

GL: 我不认为我能

And are you getting the sense,

do you feel like this is the right decision to make at this moment?

判断这是否是正确的决定。

但毫无疑问，这是一系列决策的进展

GL: I don't think I'm the right person

我认为他们在这个决定上用了相当长的考虑时间

to say whether or not it's the right decision.

But certainly, this has been a progression of decisions,

武汉作为疫情的起点

是第一个也是最主要的疫情中心

and I think they've been sitting on this decision for quite some time.

武汉计划在4月8日开放

Wuhan itself, which was where the pandemic started,

这是目前的计划

而实际上，我们现在所处于

it was the first epicenter and the major epicenter.

三个阶段中的第三阶段

从武汉首次发现病毒开始算起

Wuhan is opening up on April 8,

that's right now the schedule.

现在，距4月8日已经过去 大约十一周了

And this is really, what we're in now is the third of three phases

在武汉城市全线封锁后

from the first discovery of the virus in Wuhan.

以及湖北省封锁后

所以对于那些目前

Now, April 8 will be about 11 weeks

after Wuhan the city got completely shut down,

在美国居家隔离

and the Hubei province got shut down.

想知道这会持续多久的人们

And so for those who are in a shelter, at home

在武汉，他们已经被封锁了十一周

kind of situations right now in the United States

而直到现在，中国政府决定

and wondering how long this is going to take,

他们已经准备好， 要开始让人们自由活动了

in Wuhan, they've been locked down for 11 weeks

WPR：正如你刚才所说的

and only now has the Chinese government decided

关于报道中可能的一些失误

they're ready to start letting people move freely around.

我指的是，现在仍有报道表示

我们可能未能确切的知道

WPR: And to your point earlier

武汉及其他地方的准确病例数量

about some of the possible missteps in terms of reporting,

I mean, there are still reports now

我们听到一些声音称没有新的病例

that we might not be getting an accurate number of cases

但也有人说确实存在新病例

that we're seeing in Wuhan or beyond,

你认为目前关于中国的疫情现状的信息

we're hearing some people say there are no new cases,

这些信息的传递是真实的吗？

other people saying that there actually are cases.

So do you feel like there is accurate spread of information

GL: 总的来说，是的

但需要说明的是，这都是基于中国政府的定义

about the current state of the virus in China right now?

而这也是目前所面临的问题之一

即使世界卫生组织也在努力应对的问题

GL: Generally, yes,

with the caveat that it is based on the Chinese government's definition.

是各国对于什么是确诊病例

什么是感染

And this is one of the problems right now

定义都有所不同

that even the World Health Organization is struggling with,

例如，在中国

那些检测呈阳性但没有症状的人

is that the definition of what is a confirmed case,

what is an infection,

我们现在了解，自2月7日以来他们并未被包括在内

is different from country to country.

自2月7日以来

As an example, in China,

他们并未被纳入官方统计数字中

the folks that have tested positive but are asymptomatic,

或者至少可以说，2月7日， 他们更改了这个定义

we understand now that they are not included,

而他们并没有被计入那些官方数据中

since February 7,

而这可能是再增加的50%

they have not been included in the official numbers.

Or at the very least, on February 7, they changed that definition,

基于我们今天看到的数字上

所以我们发现

我们的记者已经取得了 一些政府的机密文件

and they're not included in those official numbers.

And that could be another 50 percent

on top of the numbers that we're seeing today.

和政府数据

这些资料表明，实际阳性测试中 有三分之一是无症状的

So what we've found,

our reporters have gotten their hands on some classified government documents

and government data

因此没有被纳入官方统计数字中

that suggests that a third of total actual positive tests are asymptomatic,

现在，我不认为这是中国政府

试图隐瞒信息的一个例子

这是一个关于定义的问题

and therefore not included in official numbers.

各国一直在讨论这个问题

Now, I don't think that this is an example

而且每个国家都有不同的处理方式

但就像我所说的

of the Chinese government trying to hide information.

确实经历了三个非常明显的阶段

This is a definitions issue,

which countries have been debating

我们现在正处于第三阶段

and people are doing it in different ways.

我称其为恢复和康复阶段

But like I said,

其中‘康复’是指中国形象的恢复

there really have been three very distinct phases.

We are in the third phase

但第一阶段是发现以及大量的否认

that I would call recovery and rehabilitation,

接着是这两个半月的时期

rehabilitation being the rehabilitation of China's image.

进行响应和遏制

But the first part was discovery and a lot of denial.

我觉得吧，那个应对和控制的部分

对全世界来说可能是最有趣的

And then there was this two-and-a-half-month period

WPR:所以或许我们可以把那部分拆解一下

of response and containment.

And that I think, the response and containment part

你知道，来思考一下中国的应对措施

具体来说，有哪些特别的事情？

is the most interesting to the rest of the world.

就是你觉得中国做对了哪些事情？

WPR: And so maybe we can break some of that down,

无论是作为一个国家，还是国内的个人

you know, thinking about China's response.

What were some of the specific things

你觉得有哪些做法是特别有效的？

that you think China did right,

GL:好的，那我就来详细讲讲时间线吧

both as a nation, individuals in the country,

我想尽量把这些日期搞清楚，因为这些日期很重要

what were some of the things that you saw that worked really well?

我觉得再次强调，为了背景的理解

从一个步骤到另一个步骤花了多少周

GL: OK, so let me walk through the time line,

让我实际上回溯到最初的那个阶段

I want to try and get these dates right, because the dates do matter,

那个发现和否认的阶段

I think again, for context,

我们第一次听说冠状病毒的时候

how many weeks it took from one step to another.

Let me actually back up into that initial first phase,

这种有点像非典（SARS）神秘的呼吸系统疾病

that discovery and denial phase.

The first time we heard about the coronavirus,

是在12月30号

那一天，有个医生

this mysterious respiratory disease that looks somewhat like SARS,

他的名字现在全世界都知道

因为她最终还是不幸去世了

was on December 30.

他叫李文亮

That was the day that there was a doctor,

李文亮，李医生

whose name is known all over the world

12月30号他在一个私人微信群里发了个消息

for the unfortunate reason

he ended up eventually dying,

群里都是他医学院时的老同学

named Li Wenliang.

他说。“我在武汉，我在医院里”

And Li Wenliang, Dr. Li,

posted to a private WeChat group on December 30.

这发现一种类似非典的疾病“

非典是2002到2003年的那次疫情

These were some of his old classmates from med school.

And he said, "Hey, I'm in Wuhan, I'm at the hospital,

武汉的这些医院里

正在传播一种类似非典的病

there is a SARS-like illness,"

SARS being the epidemic from 2002 to 2003,

这条私人消息

被某些人转发出去

这个消息在中国互联网上迅速传开了

"There's a SARS-like illness

that is spreading through these hospitals in Wuhan."

紧接着第二天

那是我们第一次实际上听说这件事

A private message.

关于在武汉发生的事情

Somebody forwarded it,

and it went viral across the Chinese internet.

紧接着第二天，12月31号

那也是中国官方

The very next --

so that was the first time we actually heard about something

那天

恰好是省级和市级的官员们

that was going on in Wuhan.

The very next day, December 31,

承认有27人

was the first time that any Chinese officials --

那个时候

and on that day,

被诊断出患有这种神秘的肺炎

it happened to be the actual provincial and the city officials --

他们向世界卫生组织报告了这些病例

acknowledged that there were 27 people,

at that moment in time,

那也是李医生受到训诫的那一天。

who had been diagnosed with this mysterious pneumonia,

正式受到训诫

所以那确实是一次重要的发现，

and they reported the cases to the World Health Organization.

这标志着发现和否认阶段的结束，

That was also the day that Dr. Li was reprimanded,

因为根据我们现在所知，

officially reprimanded.

是在12月中的时候

So that was really the discovery,

在李医生发声的几周前

the end of the discovery and denial phase,

because what we know now

有关当局已经被通知

is that back to mid-December,

在武汉的医院出现了类似SARS的肺炎病例

several weeks before Dr. Li wrote his blog post,

相关行动已经在管理层级下开始进行

the authorities had already been notified

他们现在已经回溯，至少是在公开方面回溯

that a SARS-like pneumonia was showing up in Wuhan hospitals.

将第一个病例回溯到12月1日

And action had already started down the chain of authority.

但实际上，在他们的机密和机密政府文件中，

They have now backdated, at least publicly backdated,

再次提到，我们的记者已经看过

the first case to December 1.

我们已经发表了一篇报道

But actually, in their confidential and classified government documents

在官方的机密文件中，

他们在机密文件中将第一个COVID-19病例 回溯到了11月17日

that again, our journalists have seen,

and we've published a story --

作为他们能找到的最早的例子

Officially, in classified documents,

基于症状和追溯诊断

they've backdated the first COVID-19 case all the way back to November 17,

确定为COVID-19病例

因此，事实上，已经过去了数周

as the earliest example that they can find

在承认给世界卫生组织之前

based on symptoms and based on retroactive diagnosis

这种情况正在发生

for a COVID-19 case.

第一个出现症状的病例

So in effect, there were several weeks

实际上是在大约一个半月前被确认的

before the acknowledgment to the World Health Organization

在向世界卫生组织发出通知之前

that that was going on,

然后是第二阶段

and the first case with symptoms

可以说是从12月31日开始的第二阶段

was actually identified about a month and a half

当承认了的时候

before that notice to the World Health Organization.

之后就是响应和大规模封控。

现在，需要明确的是，这个阶段仍然存在一些否认

Then the second phase,

which really started, let's say, December 31,

并且在国内发生了相当多的审查制度

when the acknowledgment happened,

was response and then massive containment.

1月1日

世界卫生组织开始与中国合作

Now this phase, to be clear, still had some denial

试图鉴定这种病毒并确定行动方针

and a good amount of censorship happening within the country.

直到几周后

So on January 1,

the World Health Organization started working with China

北京中央政府才首次打破沉默

on trying to identify the virus and trying to figure out course of action.

在1月18日

It wasn't until several weeks later

他们打破沉默否认这是非典

that Beijing, the central government, for the first time broke its silence,

事实上，他们是为了“打破谣言”

and that was on January 18.

这些谣言在中国互联网上传播

And actually, they broke the silence to deny that this was SARS,

但之后两天发生了一个重要的日期

and in fact to "defy rumors"

1月20日

因为是第一次

that were spreading around the Chinese internet.

一个党的成员

But there was a major date that happened two days afterwards,

一名高级政府官员，现在是中央的一员

which was January 20.

Because for the first time,

实际领导抗击COVID-19的工作组

a member of the party,

a senior government official who is now one of the central gentlemen

他的名字叫钟南山，是一名流行病学家

他在17年前的非典期间是一位重要人物

that is actually leading the task force against COVID-19,

1月20日，他访问了武汉

his name is Zhong Nanshan, he's an epidemiologist,

他首次承认

he was one of the central figures during SARS 17 years ago.

人际传播是可能的

现在这一点非常重要

On January 20, he visited Wuhan.

因为在此之前，已经发表言论的官员

And he admitted, for the first time,

曾表示人际传播不太可能

that human-to-human transmission was possible.

是不可能的

Now this was important,

because prior to that, officials who had spoken up

在此之前

所有病例，大多数病例

had said that human-to-human transmission was not likely,

是与海鲜和野味市场有关

was not possible.

And previous to that,

一个武汉的市场

all of the cases, the majority of the cases

但在1月20日

人际传播是可能的，正在发生

were tied to this seafood and wildlife marketplace

当然，行动方针

that was in the city of Wuhan.

不止在中国

But now, on January 20,

而是全世界的行动方针

human-to-human transmission, it's possible, it's happening,

都开始改变

三天之后，武汉封城

and so of course, the course of action,

这完全，我的意思是，它震惊了全世界

not only in China,

but the course of action all over the world,

他们能够如此迅速地封锁那么多人口

started to change.

And three days after that, Wuhan was locked down.

当然，现在印度昨天宣布

印度宣布13亿人口被封锁

It was completely, I mean, it shocked the world

所以现在我们有了另一个参考框架

that they could lock down that many people so quickly.

然后第二阶段的中间阶段结束了

Of course, now India yesterday announced

that 1.3 billion people are being locked down.

我认为确切地说是在3月左右，大约在3月10日

So we have another frame of reference now.

应该说是在3月10日

And then the end of this middle second phase

因为中国主席习近平拜访了武汉

I think really came in March, around March 10.

在中国政治中，这些事情

Actually, on March 10 I should say,

因为一切都经过精心策划

because Chinese president, Xi Jinping, visited Wuhan.

非常重要

习近平访问武汉的事实

表明中国政府认为最坏的情况已经过去

And these things, in Chinese politics,

because everything is so well-choreographed,

而现实情况是，大约在20天前

matters a whole lot.

The fact that Xi Jinping visited Wuhan

signaled that the Chinese government believed the worst was over.

这个曲线已经拉平了

所以20天前，大概是2月20日

The reality was that probably about 20 days before that,

感染率大约在75,000、76,000左右

the curve had already been flattened.

So 20 days before that, probably around February 20,

自那时以来，它基本上保持在几千人左右

所以在3月10日

the infection rate was around 75,000, 76,000,

习近平拜访武汉，一定程度预示最坏的阶段过去了

and it's effectively stayed within a couple of thousand since then.

然后他们进入了康复和重建阶段。

So on March 10,

WPR：好的

Xi Jinping's visit to Wuhan kind of signaled the worst is over,

如果我听得没错的话 谢谢你分享这一切

and then they moved into the recovery and rehabilitation phase.

听起来，尽管最初有一个时期

WPR: OK.

消息放出来的很缓慢

I mean, if I'm hearing correctly -- thank you for sharing all of that,

最终中国政府也反应迅速

it sounds like, although there was a slow period

为了应对这种情况，封锁人们

of getting the information out initially,

似乎这对拉平曲线产生了真正的影响

eventually there was quick reaction from the Chinese government

在中国，在武汉

to respond to this, lock folks down.

GL 确实产生了的影响

WPR: 是的，我...

And it seems like that had a real impact on flattening the curve

GL: 绝对的

WPR: 是的，请继续，Gary

GL: 1月23日的日期并非巧合

in China, in Wuhan.

GL: A real impact.

因为中国的春节假期从1月24日开始

WPR: Yeah and I --

GL: Absolutely.

WPR: Yes, please go ahead, Gary.

GL: The date of January 23 was not by coincidence.

也就是紧接着的第二天

事情是

随着中国新年的到来

Because the Chinese New Year holiday started on January 24,

每年都是地球上发生的

the very next day.

最大规模的人类迁徙

约有4亿人出行

And the thing is,

with the Chinese New Year holiday,

在大概40天的期间内，从1月24日算起

is that it is, every single year, it's the largest human migration

that happens on Earth.

About 400 million people travel

这就是30亿次的旅行

就是全国各地的人们在出行

during about a forty-day period that would have started on January 24.

有4亿人在旅行

现在，武汉是中国最重要的城市之一

And that's three billion trips,

it's just people traveling all over the country,

尽管此前

400 million people traveling.

世界范围内并不是每个人都知道武汉

Now, Wuhan is one of the most important cities in China,

但它是极其重要的城市

他被认作中国中部最重要的城市

although before this,

I don't think a lot of people around the world knew the city of Wuhan,

有很多原因

但其中最重要的一个原因

是因为武汉是中国主要的交通枢纽之一

but it's extremely important.

It is considered the most important city in the center of China

有主要的火车线路

无论是高铁，普通火车线

for many different reasons,

but one of the key reasons

还是货运线路

is that it is one of the key transportation hubs of the country.

几乎所有的大动脉都通向武汉

想想看，有将近4亿人要出行

So all of the major train lines,

the high-speed train lines, the normal train lines,

在1月24日在春节期间

the trade lines,

they all kind of converge on Wuhan.

很多人的行程都会经过武汉

So you can imagine if 400 million people start moving around

当然，武汉这个城市本身人口就有1100万

再加上周边城市

for Chinese New Year on January 24,

湖北省总共有大约6000万人口

a huge number of them were going to go through Wuhan.

大家都打算走出家门

And of course, Wuhan itself is an 11-million-person city.

所以，要是在1月23日之前没封城

The surrounding cities all added together,

Hubei province has about 60 million people,

人们开始四处走动

这样的话很可能

and they were also largely going to travel.

就非常难以控制情况了

And so if January 23 they had not shut it down,

可能连控制的可能都没有

and people had started traveling,

the likelihood would have been

尽管在春节假期开始前就封锁了

that this would have been really, really hard,

但仍然有大约500万人离开了

possibly, likely impossible to contain.

武汉及周边地区

And even though they shut down before the Chinese New Year holiday started,

这就是为什么病毒

we now also know that at least five million people actually left

会在全国

乃至全球传播的原因之一

the surrounding areas and traveled.

WPR:稍后我也想回到这个话题

Which is one of the reasons why it did spread a little bit

我还想再聊聊那五百万离开的人

across the country,

他们现在都去哪儿了？ 这对整个形势有什么影响？

and then eventually spread to other parts of the world.

不过在此之前

WPR: And I'd like to come back to that as well,

我想进一步了解一下

just thinking about the five million people who left

你提到，这个11月份是...

and sort of where they landed today and how that affected things,

11月就有最早的病例报告

but before we do that,

I'm interested to talk with you a little bit more about --

这阁消息确实是之前从没听说过的

you mentioned this November date as one of the earliest cases

我想，很多人也是头一回听到

you discovered that was reported was in November,

因此我很好奇

and that's something actually that I hadn't heard before,

当你从中国的角度考虑这些失误

and I imagine that might be news to a lot of people hearing this,

关于中国所做的事情

你知道，正如你提到的

and so I'm curious,

信息压制是一方面

when you think about the missteps from China's perspective,

也是对中国处理此事的一个主要批评

in terms of what China did,

听说可能早在11月就有了某些事情的知情

you know, there is, as you mentioned,

suppression of information is one thing,

那也许我们能更早的发挥作用

one major criticism of how China handled this.

去控制和遏制这一切

And hearing that maybe there was knowledge of something as early as November,

GL 对这个，我想澄清一下

据我们了解

if that might have played a role

官方是在12月中旬才得知这种情况

in how we were able to control and contain this a lot sooner.

它并不是....

所以。实际上只过了几周.——

GL: I do want to clarify,

from what we understand,

从官方开始意识到问题的严重性

officials were not notified about this until mid-December.

It wasn't --

So it was really a couple of weeks

到第一个病例报告给世界卫生组织

between officials realizing that there was a SARS-like pneumonia

这并不是追溯到11月17日的

是我们追溯发现 第一个病例可以追溯到11月17日

going around

然而这个信息并没有被政府公开

to when the first case was reported to the World Health Organization.

我们发表这个消息，是因为我们看到了数据

这数据显示，最早的病例可以追溯到更早的时间

It wasn't all the way back to November 17.

That was retroactively backdated,

从失误的角度来看

but that has not been made public by the government.

说实话，几周时间和非典（SARS）那时候相比

We published it because we've seen the data

SARS那时候信息封锁了很长一段时间

that actually backdates the first case.

From a misstep point of view,

这次政府封锁信息的时间比非典时要短多了

again, it's a couple of weeks compared to what happened in SARS,

那时政府完全封锁了信息

which was a long time of locking down on information.

但后来，当然

This was much shorter,

网上还是有一定程度的审查的

the period of time that the government wasn't in complete shutdown mode.

特别是在中国的网络防火墙里面

对于中国公民之间的交流沟通

But then, after that, of course,

有点令人惊讶的是

there was still continued censorship on the internet,

especially within the Great Firewall of China,

也许对于许多中国观察家来说并不意外

中国政府——中央政府

for communications between Chinese citizens.

在过去几周

And you know, surprisingly to some,

I think for a lot of China watchers not so surprisingly,

其实应该说是两个月

已经开始改变他们的态度了

is that the government has -- the central government --

一定程度上承认

over the course of the last several weeks,

需要让信息流通要更加畅通

actually, I should say probably the last two months,

他们甚至改变了一些官方的说法

has started to change their tone

and to some degree admit

比如最初那个吹哨的李医生

that there needed to be better free flow of information.

可惜他后来因为这个病毒去世了

They've changed the official narrative of a couple of different things,

现在他们把他当作国家英雄

including this initial whistleblower, Dr. Li,

who unfortunately ended up passing away from the virus,

撤销了对他的指控

they actually now refer to him as a national hero,

武汉的警方也向李医生的家属道歉了

they have officially removed the reprimand,

有...

有几个警察因为处理这个事情被处罚了

the Wuhan police have apologized to Dr. Li's family,

因为他们的处理方式不当

中国内部已经有了明显的转变

and they have actually been --

a couple of policemen -- have been punished in Wuhan

现在有更多的数据和信息共享

for the way that they handled the situation.

我可以告诉你

从香港的角度来说

So there has definitely been an internal shift

无论是香港还是大陆方面， 之间如果没有这种开放的信息共享

and there is a lot more sharing of data and information.

I can tell you,

香港的反应可能就完全不一样了

from Hong Kong's point of view,

without the open sharing of information between the authorities,

我觉得，没有这些信息，香港可能会受到更大的影响

更加放开的信息共享

between Hong Kong and mainland China,

I think Hong Kong's response would have been much more different

对我们这座城市真的很有好处

and I think Hong Kong would have suffered because of that.

WPR: 这里还有克里斯（Chris）想问一个问题

可能是来自观众的

So that much more open sharing of information

CA： 嗨，Gary

has benefited this city for sure.

在线观众非常喜欢你刚才说的

WPR: And we have Chris here who has a question,

真的挺有意思的

你给我们带来了很多新见解

I think, from the audience.

CA: Hey, Gary.

在目前的情况下

The online audience, loving what you're saying.

你们那边....

It's so interesting,

you're giving us amazing new insights here.

你知道，有报道说新的病例几乎没有了

Just in the current situation

生活是不是感觉正在慢慢恢复正常？

where much of --

人们真的相信这个问题在其他地方已经被成功解决了吗？

you know, there have been these very few reports of new cases.

How much does it feel like life is getting back to normal?

GL我觉得在中国大陆

Do people really believe that this problem has been successfully tackled elsewhere?

人们确实相信，觉得问题已经得到解决了

大家都在盼着日子能恢复正常

GL: I think the sentiment in mainland China

像上海、北京这样的大城市

is that yes, in China, the problem has been tackled.

都开始复工了

And people are looking forward to going back to normal life.

很多工厂也已经重新开门了

我上次看到的数据显示

中国之前关闭的90%的企业

A lot of the other major cities, Shanghai, Beijing,

are starting to get back to work.

现在都已经重新开张了

Many of the factories have now been reopened.

总的来说，生活正慢慢回归正轨

The last stat that I saw

武汉和湖北大概是最后还在封城的地方

was that 90 percent of the businesses that had been shut down

are now reopened in China.

武汉计划一直封城到4月8日

So generally speaking, life is getting back to normal.

香港这边情况有些不同

Wuhan and Hubei are really the last places that are still shut down,

我们这儿其实又回到了

第二波社交隔离和保持距离的阶段

with Wuhan being the city that is shut down until April 8.

包括我们公司在内的许多公司

Hong Kong is a little bit different.

还有香港政府和公务员

Hong Kong has actually gone back

into a second wave of social isolation and distancing.

现在都又开始居家工作了

A bunch of different companies, us included,

这是因为我们开始看到第二波疫情的苗头

as well as the Hong Kong government and the civil service

但对我们来说，诚实地说，这其实是第一次 见证感染的大规模爆发

has now gone back to work from home.

And it's because we are starting to see a second wave,

主要是因为有很多输入病例

很多香港居民

but for us, honestly, is the first time that we've had a spike of infections,

在病毒最初进入城市时

离开了香港

and it's because of imported cases.

It's because a lot of Hong Kong residents

现在他们又回来了，因为奇怪的是

who left Hong Kong prior to,

他们逃到的那些地方现在比香港还要危险

well, actually when the virus first came into the city,

他们回来的时候

are now returning, because oddly enough,

很多人实际上带回了病毒

the places they escaped to are now more dangerous than Hong Kong.

这就是我们开始看到感染激增的原因

在这周之前，这两个月里

And as they're coming back,

a lot of them are actually bringing the virus back with them.

香港单日最高感染数只有10例

And so we're starting to see a spike.

Before this week, the highest infection day that Hong Kong had

但在上周，我们看到的最高日增感染数 竟然达到了48例

因此，这其实是我们第一次见到这样的感染高峰

during the first two months of this

was 10 infections in one day.

所以，香港又进入了警惕状态

Now the highest that we've seen in the last week was 48.

大家都变得更加小心谨慎了

越来越多人选择待在家里

So this is really the first spike that we're seeing,

and so Hong Kong is returning back to a state of alertness,

CA: 在中国大陆是否有可能

因为你所提到的重新定义

to a state of caution,

and more and more people are holed up at home.

如果有人检测结果呈阳性，但没有症状

CA: Is it possible, in mainland China,

他们就不会被列为确诊病例

that because of this redefinition that you spoke about,

这似乎挺关键的

where if someone tests positive, but they're not showing symptoms,

这是否部分解释了

为什么新的报告几乎为零？

that is not reported as a case.

That seems significant to me.

Is that part of the explanation

GL: 我不确定这是不是全部原因

for why new reports have gone nearly to zero?

但我确实认为即使在这种情况下

而且请记住，这些是经过测试的人

GL: I don't know if that's the answer to it,

所以我们拥有的数据是这些人已经接受了测试

but I do actually think that even with --

测试结果呈阳性

但他们没有被列入官方的感染人数统计中

and remember, these are folks that are tested,

so the data that we have is that these folks have been tested,

因为他们没有症状

但这些人还是会被纳入到中国遏制疫情的策略中

the tests have come back positive,

这是中国控制疫情策略的一部分

but have not been added to the official number of infections,

这个过程非常有效

because they're asymptomatic.

But they have still gone through the process

首先是进行了大量的人员检测

that is part of China's containment strategy,

然后，一旦...

一旦测试呈阳性

which has worked extraordinarily well.

无论症状如何

Which is, first of all, lots and lots of people have been tested.

无论是否被记入官方数据

And then once --

接下来他们都会被隔离

if there is a positive test return,

regardless of whether or not they're symptomatic or asymptomatic,

被分开

接下来进行接触者追踪

regardless of whether or not they're added to official numbers,

接触者追踪是非常关键的措施

what happens next is that they are quarantined,

他们会查明这个阳性患者

they're isolated,

and contact tracing happens.

去过哪里

Contact tracing is a key, key, key action.

接触过谁

所有这些密切接触的人

And so they go and figure out where this person has been moving,

都会接受检测

如果他们检测呈阳性

where they've been,

who they've been in contact with,

and all those folks that they've been in close contact with,

他们也会被隔离，然后重复同样的过程

they get tested.

所以中国并不是简单地

And if they come back with a positive test,

发现了无症状的人

then they're also isolated and they go through the process again.

就让他们回家

事实并非如此

So China has not been testing people,

WPR: 我也认同这一观点，Gary，你提到的那点

finding that they're asymptomatic and then just releasing them

关于追踪测试以及能够找出

and letting them go home.

That's not the case.

与哪些人接触过

WPR: I think to that point too, Gary, what you mentioned

以确定可能也被感染的人的问题

about this trace-testing and being able to figure out

你知道，当你你看看世界

其他地方发生的事情

比如现在我和Chris 所在的美国

who people have been in contact with

to figure out who may also have been infected,

你会听说那里很多有症状的人

you know, when you look at what's happening

in other parts of the world,

都做不了检测

you hear in the United States, where Chris and I are based right now,

你知道，中国能检测这么多人

you're hearing that people who are experiencing symptoms,

这对他们应对和控制病毒有什么影响呢？

have symptoms cannot get tested.

You know, how does China's ability to test so many people

GL: 这真的很重要

如果没有大规模的检测

和随后的接触者追踪

affect the way that they can respond to this and control this virus?

我认为中国不可能像他们现在这样有效地控制住疫情

GL: It really matters.

香港也一样

Without the significant testing

如果我们没有这两样东西

and without the contact tracing that comes afterwards,

作为卫生系统的基本要求

I don't think there's a way that China could have contained it

那么香港也无法控制住疫情

the way that they did.

The same thing here in Hong Kong.

这其实也是

If we didn't have both of those,

韩国成为除中国之外

as minimum requirements in a health system,

唯一一个成功扁平化疫情曲线的国家的原因

Hong Kong could not have contained it.

因为他们进行了积极的检测

And this is actually the reason why

我认为韩国的人均检测量是全世界最高的

South Korea is the only other country besides China

据我们目前所知

that has managed to flatten the curve,

他们还积极地进行了接触者追踪

is because they aggressively tested.

正因为这样，即使韩国曾出现了巨大的疫情高峰

I think by far the highest per capita testing

anywhere in the world, as far as we know right now.

我们一度以为疫情会失控

And they aggressively did contact tracing.

但他们最终成功地抑制并控制了疫情

And because of that, even though South Korea had this huge spike,

现在他们的情况好多了

WPR: 你之前提到的一个话题我也很想谈谈， 那就是SARS

and we thought that it was going to get out of hand,

they were able to suppress it, control it,

以及2002到2003年间，它给中国

and now they're in a much, much better place.

WPR: One thing you mentioned earlier that I'd love to talk about, too, is SARS

亚洲其他国家和香港带来的影响

and the impact of going through that in 2002 and 2003 for China,

SARS对那个地区所有人应对

COVID-19疫情的准备有什么影响吗？

other countries in Asia, Hong Kong.

You know, what effect did that have on everyone's preparedness

GL: 影响是非常显著的

我认为，SARS留下的机构和社会记忆

in that part of the world

非常重要

for the COVID-19 outbreak?

对于中国、香港、韩国

GL: It was significant.

新加坡、台湾、日本这些亚洲国家来说

I think the institutional and social memory of SARS

这些国家在应对COVID-19时都体现出了这一点

matters a heck of a lot,

when you look at China, Hong Kong, South Korea,

用香港举例

因为这是我最熟悉的一个例子

Singapore, Taiwan, Japan,

a lot of these countries in Asia have dealt with COVID-19.

但我接下来要说的很多内容实际上

也适用于亚洲的其他地区

Let me use Hong Kong as an example,

举个背景

because it's the one that I know the most intimately.

SARS，从2002年11月到2003年7月

But a lot of what I'm about to say

它和COVID-19是非常相似的冠状病毒

actually does apply to those other areas of Asia.

So for context,

认为这两种病毒有大约80%的相似性

SARS, November 2002 to July 2003,

very, very similar coronavirus to COVID-19,

全球感染人数略超过8,000人

I think there's about an 80 percent similarity to those two viruses.

死亡774人

按比例来看

SARS比COVID-19更致命

The global infected number was a little over 8,000,

但传染性远低于COVID-19

774 deaths.

这就是为什么SARS对香港影响如此巨大

So by percentage,

deadlier than COVID-19 is

为什么这段记忆如此深刻

but far less infectious than COVID-19 is.

实际上这也很能说明香港对COVID-19的反应

Now here's why it impacted Hong Kong so much,

在这8,000个感染病例中

and why the memory is so deep,

有22%在香港这个拥有750万人口的城市

and actually it tells you a lot about Hong Kong's reaction to COVID-19.

而死亡病例的40%，实际上是39%

Of the 8,000 infected,

即299人死在了香港

22 percent were here in the city of 7.5 million,

全球因SARS死亡的39%发生在香港

and 40 percent, actually 39 percent of the deaths,

SARS并不是在香港开始的

而是从中国南方

299 people died in Hong Kong.

输入香港的

Thirty-nine percent of the global deaths happened in Hong Kong.

因此，SARS留下了深刻的记忆

但它也是香港卫生系统和

And SARS did not start in Hong Kong,

it was imported into Hong Kong

城市社会习惯的重大转折点

from southern China.

And so SARS, again, deep, deep memory,

让我谈一下其中一些影响

but it was a massive turning point in the Hong Kong health care system

因为你实际上还能看到它

and also the social practices of the city.

即使是在COVID-19之前，每天都能看到

医疗系统能够非常迅速地提升其容量

And let me walk through some of that impact,

because you can actually still see it,

even before COVID-19, you see it every day.

因为在SARS之后有充分的准备

The health care system

was able to really, very quickly, ramp up in capacity,

SARS之后

香港卫生保健机构开始做好更大容量的准备

because of preparation post-SARS.

特别是对于传染病

新的健康警报系统

So after SARS,

警告和治疗协议也得到了制定

the Hong Kong health care authorities started preparing for greater capacity,

我可以告诉你，很多在香港的人也

especially for infectious diseases.

There were new health alert systems,

会告诉你，香港的医院

warnings and treatment protocols put in place.

在SARS之前

戴口罩都是罕见的

I can tell you that a lot of folks that were here before SARS

甚至连医疗专业人员戴口罩都是罕见的

而现在外科口罩无处不在

will tell you that in Hong Kong hospitals,

不但是医院，城市里也到处都是

before SARS,

it was actually rare to see

even medical professionals wear face masks.

任何时间，任何地点。尤其是现在

And now surgical masks are ubiquitous,

与中国大陆权威机构开通了新的 沟通和数据信息交流渠道

not only in hospitals, but across the entire city.

Anytime, anywhere, it seems, especially right now.

还引入了技术

包括现在在香港进行接触追踪的超级计算机

New channels of communication and data

and information exchange were opened up with mainland Chinese authorities,

and technology was implemented,

你可以追溯到SARS之后发生的变化

including now a supercomputer that actually does contact tracing

才有了这台超级计算机和接触追踪能力的存在

in Hong Kong.

在社会方面

You could trace the existence of the supercomputer

也发生了巨大的变化

and this contact-tracing ability back to changes that happened post-SARS.

首先我要谈谈口罩

我知道全世界各地对于

On the social side,

there was also a huge change.

口罩是否在这种情况下有用仍然存在分歧

The first thing I have to talk about is, of course, masks.

我知道世界卫生组织

Now, I know that there is still not consensus everywhere in the world

以及美国和新加坡的政府

声称只有医疗人员

about whether or not masks actually help in this situation.

和真的得病有症状的人

I know that the World Health Organization

需要带口罩

as well as governments like the US, as well as Singapore,

在香港，每个人都戴口罩

say that only medical personnel

尽管政府

as well as people who are actually sick and showing symptoms

在这次疫情中有时会犹豫不决

need to be wearing masks.

In Hong Kong, everyone wears masks.

但总的来说

指导方针是每个人都应该戴口罩

And the government,

even though they flip-flopped a little bit

这一做法始于SARS

during this epidemic,

在SARS期间，香港有90%的人戴口罩

the general,

the guidance is that everyone should be wearing masks.

这一习惯实际上一直延续到了现在

That started in SARS.

所以一般来说，即使在大流行之外

Ninety percent of Hong Kongers during SARS wore masks,

当人们生病咳嗽时

and that habit actually stayed with Hong Kongers,

你会看到他们在公共场合戴口罩

除此之外 卫生在社会和公共空间中变得系统化

and so generally speaking, even outside of the pandemic,

when people are sick and coughing,

或者说成为了系统性的控制措施

you'll see them wear masks out in public.

On top of that,

所以，如果你去香港

there was -- it became systemic,

在一切发生之前

or I should say systematic controls

你可能已经注意到，公共场所一直在不断地进行消毒

for hygiene in social and public spaces.

So if you visit Hong Kong,

有一个每个人都能注意到的好例子

again, before all of this happened,

在公共场所的大楼里，当你进入电梯时

you would have noticed that public spaces are constantly being disinfected.

他们通常会有以下两种情况之一

也许两种都有

One good example that everyone notices

他们要么会放置一个告示牌，告诉你

is that when you go into an elevator in public spaces, in buildings,

电梯按钮的消毒频率

或者会有一层塑料

they will either have one of two things,

一层塑料薄膜粘贴，覆盖在按钮上

potentially both.

They'll either have a sign that tells you

how often the elevator buttons are disinfected,

这样按钮就变成了一个平坦的表面

or there will be a plastic,

外出就餐时

piece of sticky plastic, like a plastic sheet over the buttons

香港显然以其点心而闻名

香港点心最著名的事情之一

so it effectively becomes a flat surface.

就是点心推车

这在纽约的唐人街也非常受欢迎，作为一个例子

When you eat out,

Hong Kong is obviously famous for its dim sum,

那些点心推车

and one of the most famous things about Hong Kong dim sum

它们在非典之后基本消失了

are the dim sum carts,

which are also very popular in New York's Chinatown, as an example.

现在，在香港大多数的点心餐馆

绝大多数，你需要点菜

Those dim sum carts,

they pretty much went away after SARS.

而不是有公共的点心车，因为涉及到卫生问题

And so most dim sum restaurants that you'll go to in Hong Kong now,

香港现在的大多数高级中餐厅里

the vast majority of them, you have to order off of a menu,

你落座的时候

you don't have public carts going around because of hygiene issues.

每人会给两双筷子

那两双筷子颜色不同

In most nice Chinese restaurants in Hong Kong now

因为其中一双用于从桌子中央 夹取食物到你的盘子

you will get, when you sit down,

two pairs of chopsticks per person.

另一双是用来夹取食物放入口中的

And those two pairs of chopsticks are different colored,

老实说，消毒液

because one is used to grab food from the center of the table

和洗手通告几乎无处不在

这只是SARS之后的社会行为的一部分

to your plate,

and the other one is for you to take the food and put it in your mouth.

办公室的安全协议

And honestly, there are hand sanitizers

每个人都知道如何有效关闭办公室

and hand-washing notices literally everywhere,

和控制流量

and this is just part of the social behavior after SARS.

大多数主要的办公室至少都

Safety protocols in offices,

提供温度检测机器

everyone knows how to shut down an office

当然还有社交距离的措施

人们理解社交距离的重要性

and control traffic really well.

Most major offices have temperature-check machines

所以一旦有了对境外情况的担忧

at the very least available,

and then, of course, social distancing.

自然而然地，人们开始进行社交距离活动

People understand social distancing is important,

自我隔离也变得相当普遍

and so the moment there was fear of what was happening across the border,

所以这些就是社会方面

naturally, people started social-distancing activities

和卫生系统方面发生的变化

and self-quarantine became pretty normal.

正因为这些变化

香港能够非常迅速地做出反应

So those are all the social things

as well as the health system things that kind of changed,

不仅是政府和卫生当局

还包括香港人民

and because of that,

我认为这是最重要的部分

Hong Kong was able to react really, really fast,

整个城市，整个社区都作出了反应

not just the government, not just the health authorities

进入了一种新的模式。人们戴上口罩

but the people of Hong Kong,

勤洗手，随身携带洗手液

and I think that's the most important part,

is that the entire city, that the community reacted

停止前往公共场所

WPR: 我很好奇

我认为很多在家听着的人都在想

and went into this mode where you wore masks,

怎样才能把这些做法应用到我们这里

you washed your hands, you carried hand sanitizer,

you stopped going to public places.

从你的角度来看

当你看到世界其他地方发生的事情

WPR: I'm curious then,

I think a lot of people who are listening at home

那里的人们可能在努力做出这些改变

and figuring out how can we apply some of those things here,

你觉得，有哪些具体的事情

and from where you sit,

and when you see what's going on in other parts of the world,

你认为人们可以在自己的文化

where maybe people are struggling to make some of these changes.

和国家中采用？

GL: 我认为沟通非常重要

You know, what are some of the specific things

you think folks can adapt in their own cultures,

如果你和本地香港人交谈

他们可能会说

in their own countries?

香港政府的沟通并不是最好的

GL: I think communication is a huge deal.

但幸运的是，还有其他权威机构

If you talk to local Hong Kongers,

当然，甚至就是人与人之间的沟通

they will likely opine that the communication

也相当强劲

from the Hong Kong government has not been top notch.

在香港，许多公司在与员工进行非常

But thankfully, there have been other authorities

透明的沟通方面做得非常出色

and certainly even just person-to-person communication

has been pretty strong.

保险公司也提供了

A lot of corporates have done an incredible job in Hong Kong

各种网络研讨会和资料

in communicating very transparently

with their employees

人们很容易了解

and insurance companies have also been making available

如何进行检测

all sorts of webinars and materials

在哪里进行检测、谁需要进行检测

所以我认为，这种沟通

and made it actually quite easy

在某种程度上实现了信息的集中传达

for people to understand how to get tested,

在香港这样的城市

where to get tested, who to get tested.

人们通常都相信同样的事情

And so that communication, I think,

而他们相信的通常是真实的

has centralized, to some degree, the messaging.

当然，仍然存在错误信息的问题

In a city like Hong Kong,

这在任何地方都一样

everyone generally believes the same thing,

但我认为，可能也是因为SARS的缘故

and what they believe is generally true.

因为在过去17年里

Of course, there's still misinformation issues,

很多错误信息已经被核实

as there are everywhere.

大家都知道什么是真实的

But I think, possibly also because of SARS,

所以已经有了一种内在的雷达

because over the course of the 17 years,

或者至少是对似乎错误的事情的警觉

a lot of the misinformation has now been vetted,

everyone knows what is true,

所以我认为沟通非常重要

so there is already, sort of, an internal radar

无论是政府还是世界各地的企业都是如此

or at least alarm bell for things that seem to be wrong.

如果要对卫生系统提出建议

So I think communication is really important,

我知道做检测真的很难

from government, from corporates anywhere in the world.

但使中国和香港的检测如此

And I think if there is a recommendation for health systems,

有效的一个因素是他们有现场护理检测

I know getting tests is really difficult.

这在美国还真的不存在

One of the things that has made testing in China and Hong Kong

或者至少在美国还没有大规模实施

所以他们必须节省这些测试

certainly so effective, is that there is point-of-care testing,

只有一定数量的人可以接受测试

that still really doesn't exist,

三分诊制度就会不堪重负

or at least doesn't exist in volume in the US.

And so they have to save these tests

而在这里，一般来说

每个人都可以接受测试

and only a certain number of people can get tested,

然后当然还有接触追踪

每个人都知道，如果你接触过的某个人

the triage system then becomes overflowing.

Whereas here, generally speaking,

检测呈阳性

你将被医院机构召唤，进行检测

everyone can get tested,

and then of course, the contact tracing.

Everyone knows that if somebody that you've been in contact with

如果你的检测结果也是阳性

那么你过去两周接触过的所有人

tests positive,

you're going to be called in by the hospital authorities

也会被召唤

人们并不真的将其视为一种困扰

and you're going to be tested,

and then if you're positive,

他们认为这就是必须要做的事情

everyone you've been in contact with for the last two weeks

我认为正因为这样

疫情的控制才有效果

will also be called in.

And people don't really see it as an annoyance,

WPR: 好的，我们收到一则来自中国的提问

it's just what needs to be done.

CA: Gary, 这其实是在你刚才提到的那一点上的延伸

And I think because of that, again,

人们在网上感到困惑

the containment has been effective.

中国是如何避免大城市

WPR: Great. And we have a question from Chris here.

CA: Gary, it actually builds on the point you just made,

像北京上海，出现病例激增的情况

people are puzzled online,

how is it that China avoided the explosion of cases

尤其是有很多人从武汉来到这些城市

到底是怎样使得那些病例没有爆发呢？

in big cities like Beijing, Shanghai,

仅仅是因为非常勤奋的接触者追踪吗？

where people were coming there from Wuhan.

GL: 我认为这是多种因素的结合

How on earth did some of those cases not explode?

首先，湖北省的封锁当然有所帮助

Was it just down to really diligent contact tracing?

其次，主要城市也实行了

GL: I think it was a combination of things.

隔离和检疫

First of all, the shutdown of Hubei province certainly helped.

记住，那时是中国新年，所以那一周没有人在工作

And then, the major cities actually went into isolation

于是每个人都回家了

and quarantine as well.

一般来说，在大多数主要城市

Remember, it was Chinese New Year, so there was no one working that week.

人们都锁上了自己的门，没有外出

现在，中国对此非常有准备

And so everyone just went home.

因为中国的技术栈

And generally speaking, in most major cities,

包括消费者服务

they locked their doors and they didn't leave.

使得人们很容易就能锁上门

将所需的东西都送货上门

Now, China is very prepared for this,

because the technology stack in China,

这就是基础设施， 是已经根深蒂固的消费者行为

including consumer site services,

特别是在中国的主要城市中

make it really easy to lock your doors

所以人们就都回家了

and get everything delivered to you.

This is infrastructure and this is consumer behavior

同时还存在一个污名问题

这对来自湖北的人，尤其是来自武汉的人来说是不幸的

that is already ingrained,

especially in major cities across China.

So people just went home.

但在中国其他主要城市

There was also a stigma issue,

有很多故事讲述着来自湖北或与武汉有联系的人

which is unfortunate for people from Hubei,

and especially from Wuhan.

在疫情初期遭到排斥

But there are plenty of stories in the other major Chinese cities

尤其是在武汉封城之后

where anyone coming from Hubei or with any connection to Wuhan

因此，那些可能实际上携带病毒的人

were ostracized during those early days,

因为他们来自疫情中心地区

especially after the Wuhan lockdown.

他们要么是自我隔离

And so folks that might have been, in fact, carrying the virus,

要么是被强制隔离

因为反正没人会和他们在一起

because they were from the epicenter,

所以我认为由于这许多原因

they were either self-quarantined,

有些是社会性的，些是系统性的

or they were forcibly quarantined,

他们减少了人与人之间的接触

because no one was going to spend time with them anyway.

So I think for a lot of those reasons,

some of them social, some of them systemic,

尤其是在当局承认

人际传播是可能的之后

they made it so that there was much less person-to-person contact,

CA: 在纽约这里，医院有

警告说他们即将不堪重负

especially after the authorities admitted

that human-to-human transmission was possible.

我们能从武汉发生的事情中学到什么？

CA: Hospitals here in New York,

那里的一些场景是可怕的

there are warnings that they're about to get overwhelmed.

但也有令人惊叹的故事

我们应该从那里发生的事情中学到什么？

What can we learn from what happened in Wuhan,

some of the scenes from there were horrifying,

GL: 嗯，一开始是很可怕的

在封锁后的最初几天

but there were amazing stories as well.

What should we learn from what happened there?

所有从武汉传出的故事

我们有记者在封城之前就在那里

GL: Well, it started off horrifying.

So in the early days, post-lockdown,

他们在封城发生前大约三小时离开了

all the stories coming out of Wuhan,

还有一些最终被隔离的人

we had journalists that were there right before the lockdown,

因为他们被困在了湖北

还有很多公民记者在记录发生的事情

they got out about three hours before the lockdown happened,

and we had people what ended up having to be quarantined,

像你说的，Chris，那些画面确实很可怕

because they were stuck in Hubei.

有视频显示人们实际上躺在地上

As well as a lot of citizen journalists that were documenting what was going on,

有些人病得动弹不得

and those images, like you said, Chris, were horrifying.

另一些人已经死去

仅仅被塑料布覆盖

There were videos showing people literally laying on the ground.

还有护士和医生在镜头前哭泣乞求帮助

Some were just so sick they couldn't move,

others had already died

因此，我认为重要的是要理解

and they were just covered with plastic sheets.

中国的医疗系统并不是立刻就变得有效

There were nurses and doctors that were just crying

in front of the camera, begging for help.

尤其是在武汉

信息并不充足

And so, I think it's important to understand

人们不知道他们面临的到底是什么

that China's health care system did not just immediately become effective.

当然，官方也在试着帮忙

And certainly not in Wuhan.

我认为在那个时候

There was not that much information,

但再次强调，信息流动并不自由

people didn't know what they were dealing with.

在封锁期间

Certainly, the authorities were trying to help,

人们从阳台上大声呼救

I think at that moment,

他们无法获得食物

but again, the information flow was not that free.

甚至无法去医院

And during lockdown,

因为公共交通系统被封锁了

people were screaming off of their balconies,

because they couldn't get food,

记住

武汉不是像纽约这样的城市

they couldn't even go to the hospital,

纽约大部分地区都可以步行

because the public transportation systems got locked down.

对于那些没有汽车的人

Remember, this is not,

而且武汉很多居民没有汽车

Wuhan is not a city like New York

where most of New York is walkable.

如果公交车停运了

他们可能需要走上三四个小时才能到达医院

For people who don't have cars,

and many, many of the Wuhan residents don't have cars,

也许没有那么久

但他们需要走很长的路才能到达医院

if the buses are locked down,

then they might have to walk three, four hours, to get to a hospital.

因此，很多人只能困在家里

一开始无法得到任何诊断或医疗照顾

Maybe not that long,

but they have to walk a long way to get to a hospital.

所以这是一场灾难

And so a lot of people were just stuck at home,

但后来，医疗能力实际上得到了提升

and they were unable to initially get any diagnosis or any health care.

分诊系统变得非常有效

And so it was a disaster.

我想大多数人现在都听说过，有两座大型医院

But then the capacity actually ramped up.

拥有数千张床位的容量

The triage system became extremely effective.

在10天内建成

I think most people have heard now that there were two massive hospitals

而且这是真的

他们几乎是凭空出现的

原本只是停车场或平地

with thousands of beds of capacity

that were built within 10 days.

然后就建起了两个主要的医院单位

And this is true,

they came out of nowhere,

需要明确的是，这些都是分诊单位

they were literally just parking lots or flat ground,

是为有轻微症状的患者设置的

and two major hospital units were built up.

To be clear, also, those were the triage units

但这非常重要

能够将轻症患者

从主要医院系统中转出

for those who have very mild symptoms.

这样他们就不会占用护士和医生的资源

But that's really important.

不会占用用于二次确认检测的诊断设备

Being able to get people with mild symptoms

out of the major hospital systems,

特别是，他们也不会占用隔离病房

so that they're not taking up the resources of nurses and doctors,

they are not taking up the diagnostic equipment

和呼吸机

因此，一旦轻症患者开始被转移

for the second confirmation tests,

and also, especially, they are not taking up isolation wards

那些将会存活下来的人

们只是真的需要与家人分离

and ventilators.

并接受一些抗病毒药物

And so the moment people started being moved out, the mild symptoms,

一旦他们被转移到这些新医院

the ones that were going to survive

and they just really needed to be separate from family

武汉和整个湖北的主要医院

and have some antiviral medication,

就可以处理主要患者

特别是那些特别危重的

once they were moved out into these new hospitals,

测试人口中病情危险的患者， 将尽全力救治他们

the main hospitals in Wuhan and across Hubei

并确保他们不是高度传染性的

could deal with the primary patients,

especially those that are critical,

与此同时，我认为中国的卫生当局

of the overall tested population and do their best and try and save them

尤其是护士和医生

and make sure that they're not highly infectious.

也做得很好，有效保护了自己

所以，在医务人员的感染和死亡比例上

At the same time, I think that the health authorities in China,

与SARS时期相比，现在远远更少

especially the nurses and the doctors,

did a very good job of also protecting themselves.

CA: 我的意思是，有效应对

So there have been far fewer, by percentage, infections and deaths,

需要一种自上而下的推动力

of medical staff than there were during SARS.

还有很多人愿意冒着风险

CA: I mean, to respond that effectively

took a kind of top-down drive.

为了他们认为应该为公共利益做的事情

Plus a willingness of a lot of people to risk their own well-being

你很清楚中国、香港和西方之间的文化差异

in a way for their perception of what they had to do

你怎么看待

for the public good.

You are well aware of the cultural differences between China, Hong Kong

比如说，美国有效应对的可能性

and the West.

如果情况真的在这里爆发了

Do you -- how do you rate the chances

就像它们现在看起来可能即将发生的那样？

of, say, the US responding effectively

GL: 在医疗系统方面

我非常有信心美国的医疗系统

should things really explode here,

as they seem like they may be about to?

能够做出良好的反应

我有很多朋友在美国

GL: In the health care system side,

他们都是医疗专业的

I have every confidence that the US health care system

他们正积极举手志愿

is going to be able to respond well.

前往医院看看他们能提供什么帮助

I have many, many friends

who are medical professionals in the United States,

所以我对这个系统和运行 这个系统的人员充满信任

and they are raising their hands and volunteering

美国的医疗能力也显著更强

and going to hospitals to see where they can help.

人均医生数量远超中国

So I have full trust in the system,

and the people that man those systems.

还有一个原因是，我们的医疗系统

Our health care capacity in the United States

不仅仅依赖医院

is also significantly greater, doctors per capita,

全国各地都有基层医疗服务提供者

than in China.

只要有足够的检测能力和检测套件

And because of the fact that also, our health care system

is not just relying on hospitals,

在全国范围内

but there are primary care physicians scattered all over the country,

全科医师实际上可以进行这些检测

as long as the testing capacity and testing kits are available

而且听起来， 越来越多的美国医疗技术初创公司

across the country,

现在正试图创造这些家用测试套件

general practitioners can actually administer those.

这样人们就可以在家里进行检测了

And it certainly sounds like more and more med tech start-ups in the US

这将会有很大帮助

我当然希望美国的公民

are now trying to create these home kits,

so that people can start testing at home.

能非常非常认真地对待这个问题

That will help a lot.

并且意识到，即使你可能感觉不到你生病了

My hope is certainly that the citizens of the US,

即使你以为你还年轻

that people are going to take this very, very seriously

你不容易感染这种病毒

and realize that it doesn't matter that you may not feel sick,

或者你不...

it doesn't matter if you think you are young

你可能不害怕这些严重后果和死亡

and that you are not prone to catching this virus,

但请认真对待，留在家里

or that you're not in --

you may not be fearful of dire consequences and death.

请不要去公共场所

不要成为传播者

因为我们现在知道 无症状的人也可能是携带者

Take it seriously and stay home.

而且作为无症状携带者

And don't go to public spaces,

and don't be a carrier,

你有可能具有传染性

because we now know that asymptomatic folks can be carriers

所以是的，从文化方面来说 ...

and there is a possibility that you can be infectious

我不认为这真的是文化上的差异

我会认为

as an asymptomatic carrier.

这是因为SARS的影响

是因为SARS在社会记忆中的地位

So yeah, on the cultural side --

I don't think it's really cultural.

导致人们变得更加无私

I would say that

他们会说，“好吧， 如果我可能是密接的话，我会待在家里”

it's because of the impact of SARS,

it's because of the social memory of SARS

CA: 是的，很奇怪

that has meant people are a little bit more selfless,

SARS似乎起到了一种疫苗的作用

and have just said, "OK, I will stay home,

某种程度上足以让系统准备好，让人们做好准备

because I might have come in contact."

是的，社会疫苗，真是令人惊叹

CA: Yeah, weirdly,

回到你，Whitney

SARS seems to have acted as its own kind of vaccine,

WPR:好的，太棒了，非常感谢你，Chris

sort of just prepped the system enough for people to be ready.

所以我觉得很有意思，加里

听你谈论在武汉的一些反应

Yeah, social vaccine, amazing.

Back to you, Whitney.

和你听说的一些故事

WPR: OK, great, thanks so much, Chris.

And so I think it's interesting, Gary, to hear you talk

负责运营“南华早报”

和一家新闻机构，特别是在现在的疫情期间

about some of the reactions in Wuhan

and some of the stories that you've heard,

你知道，首先...

首先，运营一家新闻机构

especially running the "South China Morning Post"

and running a news organization during this outbreak.

在疫情期间进行报道是怎样的一种体验？

GL: 嗯，在这样的时刻运营一家新闻机构

You know, what are some of the --

First, what is that like, to run a news organization,

尤其是这么靠近疫情最初爆发的中心地区

to report during this outbreak?

是很复杂的

我们很幸运，非常非常幸运

GL: Well, running a news organization in a moment like this,

我们的大部分高级编辑

so close to the initial epicenter where the outbreak started,

当然包括最高级别的编辑们

我们的主编，我们的领导层

is complicated.

We were lucky, very, very lucky

他们都是记者，而且他们都是在SARS期间担任记者的

that most of our senior editors,

所以我们的新闻编辑室中有很多模式识别

and certainly the most senior editors,

这意味着，从我们得到

our editor in chief, our masthead leadership,

they were all journalists and they were reporters during SARS.

来自中国的第一批报道开始

So there's a lot of pattern recognition in our newsroom.

大约是从12月30日开始

新闻编辑室里的人就已经开始举手表示

Which meant the moment that we got the first,

嘿，我们必须像报导

sort of, the first stories coming out of China,

下一个SARS那样来报导这个

starting on December 30,

很有可能就是这个了

people already raising their hands in the newsroom saying,

我们确实在一月初派人去了武汉

"Hey, we've got to report about this

就像我说的，我们在封城之前就有记者在那里

like it's going to be the next SARS.

There's a high likelihood that this is it."

封城后，我们很幸运地把他们所有人都撤出了武汉

And we did send people to Wuhan early on in January.

但我们实际上很快就改变了

Like I said, we also had reporters there right before the lockdown.

我们的报道方式

After the lockdown, we were lucky enough to pull all of them out of Wuhan.

部分是为了确保我们报道的准确性

更深入地挖掘我们知道需要深入的地方

But we actually did change very quickly

同时也是为了保护我们的记者和员工

the way that we report.

所以我们做的一件事情是

Partially to make sure we got the story right,

可能其他新闻机构会不同意我们的决定

to dig deeper in the places that we knew we had to dig deeper,

我想是在一月底或二月初

but also to protect our journalists and employees.

So one of the things that we did do,

and maybe other news organizations would disagree with our decision,

即使在香港

我们也对我们的记者说

“你们不要进入医院”

was I think in late January or early February,

所以不再进行医院内的报道

因为他们...

even in Hong Kong,

因为我们知道病毒的传染性很强

we said to our journalists,

我们担心他们会成为

"You are not to go into hospitals."

So no more in-hospital reporting.

传播的点...

Because they were --

我们只是想保护我们的员工和公司

we knew that it was highly infectious,

于是我们就这么做了

我们还有一个业务连续性计划

we were worried that they were going to become

you know, points of spread,

这意味着我们可以

随时关闭整个办公室

and we just wanted to protect our employees and our company,

同时还能继续运营这个全球新闻业务

so we did that.

我们报道的一些最有趣的故事

We also had a business continuity plan.

Which meant that at the drop of a dime

实际上是关于技术在中国这次疫情中扮演的巨大角色

we could shut down the entire office

and still operate this global news business.

Some of the most interesting stories we've covered

这实际上改变了诊断方式

is actually how technology has played a huge role in China

防控方式

during this epidemic.

当然也改变了消费者生活的方式

Because it frankly has changed the way that diagnostics work,

当然

=也有许多非常有趣的审查实例

it changed the way that containment works,

it certainly has changed the way that consumer life works.

但更有趣的是

中国网民如何对抗审查

And of course,

并对审查制度做出反应

there's been a lot of instances of really interesting censorship,

我确实认为，可能会产生相当多的持久影响

but also, more interestingly,

how the Chinese netizens have fought that censorship

由于这段时间内技术的部署

and reacted to that censorship.

And I do think that there's quite a lot of lasting impacts

WPR: 在谈论这些持久影响时

that are likely to happen

现在你们这个国家似乎正在从这种状况中逐渐恢复

because of technology deployment during this time.

并进入这次疫情的不同阶段

WPR: And so I think in talking about some of those lasting impacts,

你看到日常生活中有哪些变化

now that you as a country are sort of emerging from this

无论是社会层面的

and coming on into a different stage with this outbreak,

还是你听说个人因此经历的事情？

what are some of the changes you're seeing to daily life,

GL: 是的，我认为可能最有趣的变化有两个

both as society,

and maybe things that you're hearing that individuals are experiencing

实际上，我应该说有三个 ...

第一个是关于教育

as a result of this?

GL: Yeah, I think probably the two most interesting changes,

现在，中国各地的学校已经关闭了

相当长一段时间

actually, I should say three --

再次提到，这可能感觉有点刻板印象

The first one is on education.

或是对中国的一种夸张描绘

Now schools have been shut down across China

但教育对于这个国家

for quite some time now

and again, this might feel a little bit stereotypical,

以及公民来说，是极其重要的

我们实际上正要迎来全国考试

or a caricature of China,

这是学生们努力了18年的考试

but education is extremely important to the country

and extremely important to the citizens.

因此，线上教育 ...很快就转移到线上了

And we were actually just about to come up to the national exams,

而转移到线上的

which these students work 18 years for.

一部分是课程，课堂也必须要录制视频

And so online education -- very, very quickly moved online.

这意味着现在有了一个巨大的

And part of that move online

was that courses had to be, and classes had to be recorded.

录制课程库

这意味着教育材料的潜在民主化

Which means that now, there's this huge repository

以及显著降低获取这类课程的成本

of recorded classes.

That means potential democratization of education material,

从那些顶尖学校

无论是高中、大学还是小学

and significantly lowered costs to get this type of coursework

对整个国家都是如此

现在，中国是否会在这方面采取行动

我们还不确定

from the top tiered schools,

但潜在可能是有的

whether it's high schools, universities or primary schools,

第二个重大转变真正涉及分散的劳动力

to the entire country.

远程工作，居家工作的概念

Now whether or not China activates on that,

在中国和亚洲大部分地区并不常见

we're still not sure,

but the potential is there.

The second major shift is really on distributed workforce.

当然，这远不及美国

The idea of working remotely,

office work remotely, is not much of a concept in China

我来自美国科技行业

所以在美国

and across most of Asia.

即便在这之前，程工作在科技行业中是相当普遍的

Certainly far less than in the United States.

而在中国则远不如此

And I'm from the US tech industry,

但是因为封城

so it was pretty normal,

不仅是武汉，而是在全中国范围

it's pretty normal in the US tech industry even before this,

这个概念变得更普及

in China much less so.

But because of the lockdowns,

人们开始适应不同的工作节奏

not only in Hubei but across China,

最重要的是

this has become much more normal.

这在中国催生了一整套新的

远程会议公司

And people are kind of falling into a different rhythm of work.

因为我们在西方知道的大多数远程会议公司

And most importantly,

this has given rise to a whole new set

无论是思科系统、谷歌，Zoom、

of teleconferencing companies in China.

Because most of the teleconferencing companies that we know of in the West,

大家都在用的

BlueJeans、Slack视频

它们在中国都是不可用的

whether it's the Cisco systems, Google Hangouts, Zoom,

它们在中国无法运行

在中国的大防火墙后面，有这样一个镜像互联网

that everyone uses,

BlueJeans, Slack video,

因此出现了一整套新的远程会议系统

they're not available in China.

They don't work in China.

这些系统以前用过

There is this mirror internet in China,

但并不普遍

behind the Great Firewall,

尤其不是为分散的劳动力而设

and so there's a whole new set of teleconferencing systems

而现在，过去几个月里，突然就变得普遍了

观察这些将会非常有趣：

that were used,

公司和服务如何发展，以及

but were not really commonplace,

certainly not for distributed workforce,

中国的工作场所是否会发生变化

and now suddenly, over the last few months, they are.

最后，第三个非常有趣的事情是

So it will be interesting to see

中国互联网，对于审查问题

how those companies and those services develop,

and whether or not the workplace changes in China.

在过去两个月里，有巨大的反应

And then finally, the third thing that is really interesting

is that there was a huge internet response

特别是在吹哨人李医生 2月7日去世后，反应更是激烈

to this censorship issue in China

over the course of the last two months.

在整个中国互联网上

像“我们要言论自由”

It especially exploded after this whistle blower, Dr. Li,

“国家英雄李医生”

died on February 7.

这样的标签随处可见

All over the Chinese internet

而且有....

hashtags like "we want freedom of speech,"

并且实际上中国政府不得不作出回应

"national hero Dr. Li,"

我认为对于观察者来说

things like that just exploded everywhere.

许多观察者认为

中国政府关于李医生的叙述变化

And there have been --

And actually the Chinese government has had to respond,

在很大程度上是由其公民在互联网上的反应驱动的

I think for observers,

a lot of observers believe

that Chinese government's change of narrative about Dr. Li

有一些非常有创意的例子

was largely driven by this reaction from its citizens across the internet.

展示了人们如何绕过审查

我认为中国因使用表情符号

来绕过技术审查而相当有名

There have been extremely creative examples

我想大多数人也知道

of people getting around censorship.

中国互联网用户使用的主要消息应用程序

I think China is quite famous for using emojis

叫做微信

微信受到严重审查

to get around tech censorship.

不仅仅是文本受到审查

I think most people also know

that the primary messaging app that the Chinese internet users use,

图片审查也非常严重

个人对话也受到审查

called WeChat,

it is heavily censored,

因此，当有特定文章

it's not just text that's censored,

关于病毒情况的特定文章或帖子

images are censored really effectively,

individual conversations are censored.

人们想要分享

And so when there are specific articles

而政府认为这对某些方面不利时

or specific posts that are about what's happening with the virus

他们会进行审查， 这些内容会被完全且非常快速地移除

that people want to share,

and the government thinks that it is detrimental to whatever,

但这一次，中国公民再次使用了表情符号

they will censor and it will be completely and very effectively removed.

他们将这些帖子翻译成古汉语

But this time around, Chinese citizens used emojis again.

这是审查机器尚未能识别的

They translated these posts into ancient Chinese texts

他们甚至将这篇帖子的一个版本翻译成了

托尔金的精灵语言

that the censoring machines couldn't pick up yet,

我甚至不知道那种语言

他们翻译成了那种语言，而人工智能无法识别

they actually translated one version of this post

最后

我认为我最喜欢的一个版本是

into Tolkien's Elvish language,

I don't even know the name of that language,

他们使用了《星球大战》的开场白

they translated into that and the AI couldn't pick it up.

那种倾斜的文本滚动

制成一个视频

And then finally,

他们用那种形式，展示武汉 正在发生的事情

I think one of my favorite versions of this

was they used the "Star Wars" intro,

the angled text scrolling,

这个视频在互联网上广为流传

所以我确实认为会有更多的呼声

it became a video,

and they had the entire post about what was going on in Wuhan

现在，学者们正在就言论自由发声

in that format,

and that went all over the internet.

因此，将会有更多网民

So I do think that there is going to be an increased call.

呼吁言论自由

Academics now are speaking up about freedom of speech.

观察中国当局如何应对这一点将非常有趣

So there's going to be this increased volume of netizens

WPR: 很好。Chris，你有问题吗？

calling for freedom of speech.

It will be very, very interesting to watch

CA: 是的，这有点接上了那个话题

how the authorities in China deal with that.

关于可能从这次事件中出现的故事

WPR: Great. And Chris, you have a question?

我的意思是，肯定有一些乐观的故事

CA: Yeah, it sort of picks up on that

人们感觉

这可能导致中国出现某种形式的更多言论自由

about, you know, the stories that could come out of this.

I mean, there are definitely optimistic stories

that people are feeling,

有些事情是不能压制的

that this could lead to more free speech of a certain kind in China.

也许在美国，这可能使得政府

对待科学预测更加认真

Certain things you can't suppress.

尽管目前还不清楚这是否正在发生

Maybe in the US it might lead to the government taking

人们希望这整件事

scientific predictions more seriously,

因为它是全世界的共同敌人

not clear that's happening yet.

实际上会在某些方面将世界团结起来

但我很好奇你是怎么看待这个问题的

And there's hope that this whole thing,

特朗普总统开始将其称为“中国病毒”

because it's a common enemy for the world,

will actually bring the world together in some ways.

我很好奇这在中国是如何反馈的

But I'm curious how you think about this.

人们对这个问题有什么感受

President Trump started referring to this as the Chinese virus.

你认为这增加了对其他国家的同情

I'm curious how that's being received in China,

还是实际上增加了敌意？

and how people are feeling on this issue.

GL: 嗯，它显然在中国没有什么好反馈

Do you think it's increased sympathy for other countries

我认为一个仍然未被充分报道的事情是

or actually dialed up animosity?

中国基层民众的民族主义情绪

GL: Well, it's certainly not being received well across China.

过去的几年里，强烈上升

I think one thing that is still really undercovered

is the intensity of rising nationalism

他们非常保护自己的国家

人民和历史

特朗普总统的评论

at the grassroots level across China

以及美国政府现在将这称为

over the last several years.

And they're very protective of their country,

“中国病毒”的事实并没有得到好的反应

and their people and their history.

And President Trump's comments

你知道，我的担忧当然是，即使在病毒出现之前

and the fact that so much of the US government

is now referring to this as the Chinese virus

美中冲突已经升级

is not received well.

到超出我们大多数观察者所希望看到的程度

You know, my fear of course, is that even prior to the virus,

贸易、科技、军事、意识形态

the US-China conflict was escalating

现在我们还可以把信息冲突

beyond anything that I think most of us as observers want to see.

和健康冲突。特别是健康科技冲突

Trade, tech, military, ideology,

也算进来

and now we can add information conflict

当然，我们的希望是这些加剧的紧张关系

and health conflict, health tech conflict especially,

将在实际上消散

而且这两个国家实际上可以在此时选择

to the list.

Of course, the hope is that these heightened tensions

走下两条道路中的一条

要么是进一步损害关系的道路

will actually dissipate

要么是实际上，展现更多合作带来的可能性

and that the two countries can actually, at this moment in time,

如果世界上最大的两个经济体

choose to go down one of two paths.

Either one that further damages the relationship

最有力量的两个国家能真正合作的话

or one that actually shows what the possibilities are

你知道，这周，周四，将会在线上举行G20会谈

if the two largest economies in the world,

the two most powerful countries in the world,

这很有趣，我们可以看美国和中国如何实际协调、合作

actually cooperate.

You know, this week, Thursday is the G20 conversations

以及他们在这些谈判中是如何沟通的

that are going to happen remotely.

CA: 我想人们想知道

It will be interesting to see how US and China

你认为这将如何发展

actually coordinate, cooperate,

how they communicate during those talks.

你的位置非常特殊

CA: I think people want to know

知道整个世界的情况

how you think this will play out.

你认为这将如何发展？

You've got a very special seat there,

you know, looking at all parts of the world in it.

GL: 我非常想保持乐观，Chris

但我认为我们所看到的一切，尤其是数据

What's your take on how this plays out?

表明情况在好转之前会变得更糟

GL: I desperately want to be an optimist, Chris.

我非常担心美国目前的情况

But I think that everything we see, especially the data,

这是因为我们拥有大量数据

shows that it is going to get far worse before it get better.

这些数据来自所有这些不同国家

And I'm very fearful for what's going on in the United States.

你可以非常清楚地将国家

It's because of the amount of data we have

和大流行的传播方式叠加在一起

across all these different countries,

我们知道美国比意大利落后大约一周半， 也可能是两周

you can very clearly layer countries

and the way that the pandemic has been spreading,

我们知道意大利发生了什么， 以及西班牙发生了什么

on top of one another,

and we know that the US is a week and a half,

美国正在迎来高峰期

这一切将会来得更快

maybe two weeks, behind Italy,

and we know what happened in Italy and what's going on in Spain.

而且将会更为严重

与大多数人最初以为或希望的相比较

The US is catching up on that spike

所以情况会变得更糟

and it's going to come much faster,

因此，我们的希望是

and it's going to be much higher

再次展现我的乐观一面

than I think most people originally believed or hoped for.

各国将会团结起来

So it will get worse.

掌权者，我们的政府

So the hope is that,

将会采取极端且必要的举措

again, this is going to be the optimistic side of me,

that the nations will come together,

我们将能够更快地走出这一困境

that those in charge, our governments,

will make the drastic, necessary moves,

至少比现在看起来快

记住，当中国在1月23日开始封锁时

and we will be able to come out on the other side faster

只有830个确诊病例

than it looks right now.

即使这些数字不完全准确

Remember, when China went to shutdown,

也远不及我们现在在美国看到的确诊病例

on January 23,

there were only 830 confirmed cases.

And even if those numbers are not exactly accurate,

这是非常令人担忧的事情

it's nowhere near the confirmed cases that we have in the US right now,

在830个病例时就封城了

即使在封城之后，两周后

that we see in the US.

病例数量增长到35,000例

So that is something to be very, very concerned about.

再过两周，达到了75,000例

At 830 they shut down.

And even after the shutdown, two weeks later,

以在这一点上，美国已经晚了

the cases had grown to 35,000,

但是，你知道 ...

two weeks after that, it was at 75,000.

这还是可以解决的

So at this point, it is late in the US.

我认为大多数

交谈过的专家认为可以解决这个问题

But, we, you know --

it can still be fixed.

采取快速和果断的行动的话

And I think most ...

CA: 是的，人们很难理解指数

增长的力量

experts that we talk to believe that it can be fixed

一个数字今天可能看起来不大

with fast and decisive action.

但如果你相信科学

CA: Yeah, people struggle with understanding the power

是的，你必须采取行动

of exponential growth.

And a number can seem smallish today,

Gary，你看，我希望无论如何

你能以某种方式向你能传达的任何人传达

but if you believe the science,

无论一些人可能会说什么

yeah, you have to act.

Gary, look, I hope somehow

在政府或其他地方

美国有数百万、数千万

you will convey to whomever you can convey

甚至可能，有数亿人

that regardless of what some people might say,

无论是右翼还是左翼

in government or elsewhere,

对中国发生的事情感到惊讶

there are millions, there are tens of millions,

there are probably hundreds of millions of people in the US,

你知道，是的，一开始有一些失误，无论如何...

on both right and left,

但他们感到惊讶

who are amazed by what happened in China.

你真的...

你知道，中国政府、香港政府

You know, yes, missteps early on, whatever.

几个亚洲政府，包括新加坡、韩国

But they're amazed,

都展示了令人惊叹的智慧有纪律的行动

you've really --

you know, both the Chinese government, the Hong Kong government,

several Asian governments, Singapore, South Korea,

来对抗困难

我们很感激

have shown astonishingly wise and disciplined action

我们觉得从您这里能学到很多

所以

against this thing.

And we're grateful,

大多数人希望这个时刻能够团结世界

we feel there is much we can learn from you

and so --

我真的相信

这可能是我乐观的一面相信的一部分

People, most people want this to be a time of bringing the world together.

但我相信

这些对话部分是

为了尝试建立这种联系

I genuinely believe that,

it's maybe the optimistic part of me believing it.

But I believe in it,

保持联系

你坐在一个了不起的位置上

it's partly what these conversations are for,

我很喜欢今天你在这里说的每个字

to try and make those kinds of connections.

我从你那里学到了很多

We want to keep in touch.

感谢

You've got an amazing seat there,

GL: 这是一次很棒的对话。

and I have loved listening to every word you've said today here.

WPR: 感谢您的深刻见解

CA: 感谢线上的所有的观众

It's just I've learned so much from you.

So thank you for that.

我认为这是一场旅程

GL: It was a great conversation.

每天我们都在学习新的事情

WPR: Thank you for your insight.

CA: And thank you to our whole online audience,

以防万一有人感到有些无力

I mean, this is a journey,

感到害怕或者对情况感到担忧

every day we're learning something new.

我的意思是，现在每个人都能做的一件事

And just in case anyone out there is feeling a little bit powerless,

我认为，就是我们可以联系我们认识的人

and afraid or you know, at the situation,

我们可以鼓励彼此展现出最好的自己

I mean, the one thing that everyone can do right now, I think,

在这一刻

我真的认为这是世界所需要的

is we can reach out to the people we know,

当人们感到愤怒和恐惧时

we can encourage each of us to be our best selves

我们可能会变得刻薄

但是当我们...

in this moment.

I really think it's what the world is going to need,

当我们意识到我们彼此有多么需要对方

when people are angry and fearful,

we can turn into nasty people.

并愿意伸出援手，分享希望的故事

But when we're --

分享我们的感受

When we realize how much we need each other,

和可能性时

and are willing to just reach out and share stories of hope

我们真的可以彼此产生影响

and share what we're feeling

我在世界各地看到了很多 令人难以置信的例子

and share possibilities,

无论是意大利人在各自的

we can really impact each other,

and I see so many incredible instances of that

阳台上欢快地对唱

还是英雄主义故事

那些由全世界卫生工作者所展现的英雄事迹

from around the world,

whether it's Italians singing to each other joyfully

from each other's balconies,

将需要更多的那种精神

or these sort of tales of heroism

that some of our health workers have been engaged in

老实说，每个人都可以在他们在线的方式中发挥作用

all around the world.

分享的东西

There's going to need to be a lot more of that.

他们的应对

所以我不想过于尴尬地表现得过于乌托邦

And honestly, every single person can play a part in how they are online,

但我觉得现在我们可能需要那种精神

what they share,

我们需要彼此

how they react.

TED也在尝试做点什么

So I don't want to be overly, embarrassingly Kumbaya,

but I kind of think we need that spirit right now a little bit.

所以如果你们不喜欢

也许你们也不用来参加的

We need each other,

但我希望你不讨厌这

and TED is going to try and play that role a bit.

希望你喜欢并愿意参与其中

Whitney，共同主持这些节目真的很有趣

So if you hate that,

maybe you don't need to be here,

感谢TED团队的其他成员，都很出色

but I hope you don't hate that.

每个人都在自己的家中

I hope you like that and will be part of it.

他们都有点忙碌

Whitney, it's so fun cohosting these,

努力使一切照常运行

thanks to the rest of the amazing TED team

“我们每天都在学习一点点，我希望如此

who are everyone in our individual homes,

真的很感谢你能加入我们

WPR：感谢大家，感谢

they are sort of racing around,

trying to make this stuff work technically.

明天见

We're learning a bit each day, I hope.

Thanks so much for being part of this.

WPR: Thank you, everyone, thank you.

We'll see you all back here tomorrow.