Is Democracy Doomed? The Global Fight for Our Future | Timothy Snyder | TED

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2023-02-08 ・ TED


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Is Democracy Doomed? The Global Fight for Our Future | Timothy Snyder | TED

170,386 views ・ 2023-02-08

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:03
I'm speaking to you from the United States,
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and my mind is often on the United States.
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I'm speaking to you as a historian of Eastern Europe,
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among other things, a historian of Ukraine.
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So that helps a bit to define where I'm coming from.
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So the topic that I've been asked to address
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is whether democracy is in decline,
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whether democracy is doomed and what can we do?
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I think where I'd like to start is with the question itself,
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with the word democracy
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and how we think about the word democracy.
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What I worry about is when we treat democracy as a noun, as a thing,
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and ask questions about it. Is it advancing, is it receding,
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is it ascending, is it declining?
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We are separating it from ourselves in a way which is unhelpful.
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Democracy is not really out there in the world as a thing.
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Democracy, if it exists at all, exists inside us.
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Democracy has to begin with a desire for the people to rule,
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which of course, is what democracy is all about.
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So I tend to think that in a way it's more useful to think of democracy
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as a verb rather than as a noun.
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I realize grammatically that's incorrect,
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but I think you understand the spirit of what I mean,
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that democracy is something that you do.
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It's something that, when you speak the word,
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you have to be taking responsibility for it.
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Because ... if you’re talking about something
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that's just out there in the world,
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something that's a result of larger forces,
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something that's a result of some constellation of influences
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that doesn't have to do with you or with the people,
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then you're not really talking about democracy.
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Or, what's worse,
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if we talk about democracy as something that's out there in the world,
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as something that's a result of larger forces,
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such as, for example, capitalism,
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I think we're not just making an analytical mistake.
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I think we're also committing a kind of ethical and political suicide.
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I think the moment that we say democracy is the result of larger forces,
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democracy is somehow natural,
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democracy is the default state of affairs,
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we’re not just making a mistake,
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we’re making ourselves into the kinds of people
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who aren't going to have a democracy.
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So to be clear about what I mean,
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obviously there are some conditions which favor or don't favor a democracy,
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I wouldn't doubt that.
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Modernity does tend to bring larger-scale politics
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that makes democracy possible, perhaps, but it certainly doesn't bring it.
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Capitalism is certainly consistent with democracy.
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There are plenty of capitalist democracies,
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but there are also plenty of states that are capitalist
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and are quite tyrannical.
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So capitalism is consistent with democracy,
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but it doesn't bring us democracy.
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And I think in the West, at least,
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and especially in the English-speaking West,
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this has been one of the chief mistakes of the last three decades,
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to believe that larger forces in general,
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or capitalism in particular,
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are going to bring us democracy.
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The belief which was so widespread after the revolutions of 1989
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or the end of the Soviet Union in 1991,
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that there were no alternatives or that history was over.
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The problem with that, I think we've seen in the last 30 years,
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is that if you think democracy is being brought to you,
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then you lose the sense that democracy is a struggle,
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as it always has to be, as Frederick Douglass said.
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You lose the muscles and even the muscle memory
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of what it means to carry out that struggle.
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And maybe slightly more subtly, but also, really importantly,
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you lose the past and you lose the future.
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Because if you think that democracy is inevitable,
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that it’s somehow being brought about by larger forces,
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well, then all those things that happened in the past don't really matter.
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They just kind of become cocktail-party conversation.
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And if you're sure that there's only one future, a democratic future,
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then you lose the habit and the ability to talk about multiple possible futures.
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And you also, along the way,
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lose the capacity for recognizing other kinds of political systems
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as they emerge,
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as they have emerged in the 21st Century.
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And then finally, and this is a little tricky,
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but I think it's quite crucial.
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You also lose your ability to process facts.
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We're in a world where the whole notion of factuality is questioned,
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and I think this is related to our problem with democracy.
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If you think that democracy is coming inevitably,
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if you tell stories about, for example,
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historical arcs that have to tend in a certain direction,
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then what you'll tend to do is move the facts
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so that they fit the narratives.
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And soon we find ourselves only talking about narratives
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and not talking about facts.
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Or we find ourselves in countries that claim to be democracies,
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but no longer have the journalists who are out there producing the facts
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that we need to have for democracy.
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So we have what we have.
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I mean, the answer to the question, is democracy doomed? No.
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Obviously, we can do things. But is it in decline? Certainly.
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By any measurable, by any meaningful metric,
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democracy is in decline in my home country and on average around the world.
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And we're also in the very specific situation where a non-democracy, Russia,
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is fighting to destroy a democratic country, Ukraine,
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which is a sign that things have gone pretty far.
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Now, the Ukrainians, I would suggest,
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have given us some indication of what we ought to be doing.
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What the Ukrainians are doing in resisting this invasion,
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is that they're resisting the larger forces.
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If we think back to the beginning of the war,
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everyone assumed that Ukraine would collapse in a few days.
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That was the wisdom, not only in Moscow but also in Washington, DC.
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In defending the basic idea that you choose your own leaders,
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the Ukrainians are reminding us
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that democracy isn't about the larger forces.
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It often involves ignoring the larger forces,
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resisting the larger forces,
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ignoring the people who tell you that it can't be done.
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And here I think we see a sign of our crisis,
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which is that many people,
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at least in my country, and I think more broadly,
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the reason why they thought that the president of Ukraine,
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy, would flee
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or the reason they thought that the Ukrainians wouldn't resist
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is that they themselves would have fled
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and they themselves wouldn't have resisted.
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That is to say, the idea that democracy is something that you do yourself
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or for which you take risks
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had receded so far out of our imagination
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that we couldn't really imagine
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that a country would take risks for democracy.
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Now, of course, I'm citing the example which is close to me.
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There are many other people around the world taking risks now for freedom,
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for example, women in Iran.
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What I'm trying to say is that that ethical point,
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that democracy is about wanting democracy
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is essential.
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Without that, nothing else matters.
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Without the ability to think of democracy as a verb,
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as something that you do, as something for which you'll take risks,
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nothing else matters.
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If there's that commitment,
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if we think of democracy as something for which we take responsibility
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every time we speak the word
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as opposed to something that's just coming to us,
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then it's like we're doing politics in a different dimension,
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a fifth dimension of ethics.
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And once we've done that,
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we can start to speak about how we would change the larger forces.
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Once we make that commitment,
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then we can say some basic things, like, for example,
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we have to also have the fourth dimension,
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the fourth dimension of time.
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We need to have a sense of the future for democracy.
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We have to care for the Earth.
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We have to care specifically about global warming,
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because if the future collapses in on us,
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it becomes impossible to have the kind of reasonable conversation
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that we need for democracy.
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We also need the fourth dimension in the sense of the past.
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We have to have history.
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We have to be able to reckon with forces,
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like, for example, colonialism,
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which is so important in the Russian invasion of Ukraine,
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but also so important in the history of the United States. ...
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We need the past so that we can reckon with ourselves and self-correct
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because self-correction is what democratic decision-making is all about.
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We also need the first three dimensions,
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simply being able to move about in the world
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in all the senses of moving about that one can imagine.
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And all of those ways of moving about are hindered by economic inequality.
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Economic inequality, oligarchy, makes it very hard to have conversations
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about democracy, the future, or the past.
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A lot of the space is monopolized by things that are simply ridiculous,
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but happen because of the way that wealth is distributed.
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And economic inequality, in very simple sense,
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also hinders social mobility, economic advance.
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Finally, democracy, at least in my country,
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but not only in my country, has to be understood as a spirit.
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That is, the way that the laws should be interpreted,
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the way that the future should arrive,
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rather than as a matter of legalism.
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In the Supreme Court of the United States, but not only,
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this has advanced much further in other countries like Hungary,
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taking the procedures as being more important than the democracy,
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more important than the right,
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is a way of leading the country away from democracy.
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And in my country, it could lead us all the way away from democracy
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as soon as the next couple of years.
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It doesn't have to do so.
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We can think about these larger structures.
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We can think in a non-legalistic and in a more ethical way.
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We can get our minds around this.
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Whitney Pennington Rodgers: Maybe a good place to start is,
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and it's sort of a big question, but just how did we get to this place?
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How did we end up here where we are grappling with these questions,
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especially, you know, you're based in the United States, as am I,
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and lots on this call are from all over the world,
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but I think are struggling with these things wherever they are.
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But how did we find ourselves in this place?
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Timothy Snyder: I think in our country,
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we have a big empty middle space between, you know, complacency,
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the view that we just are a democracy
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because we're America.
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You know, by definition, or the past has given it to us.
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The Founding Fathers did something two and a half centuries ago,
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and therefore we just are a democracy.
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Or as I said, we have capitalism,
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therefore we just are a democracy,
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or we just say it over and over again,
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and therefore we are democracy, right?
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We have ... various flavors of exceptionalism.
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We have that.
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And then on the other side,
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we have a history
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that reminds us of how difficult it's been for us to be a democracy
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where women were excluded from the vote
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for more than half of the history of the country,
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where African-Americans are still de facto excluded
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from the vote in much of the country, right?
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The entire thing has been a struggle.
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So there's this gap which can only be filled, I think,
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by historical knowledge and by ethics.
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I think we've had trouble getting through that gap,
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partly because in the last 30 years we sort of convinced ourselves
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that the facts about the past don't really matter.
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And then the other thing which I think is going on, which is related,
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is that people are so worried about the future
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that it's hard for them to imagine that like, counting votes
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and representation and these basic things are really what matters.
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And I think that, you know, everyone, almost everyone is afraid of the future,
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whether you’re afraid of climate change, which I think is reasonable,
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or whether you're afraid of demography, which I think is not reasonable.
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It's all part of one big sense that the future is crashing down.
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And if you think the future's crashing down,
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then democracy becomes a kind of secondary concern.
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And then you kind of look up and look around and you think,
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“Oh, it’s slipping away.”
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WPR: I think to this idea of thinking about the future,
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so in 2017, you released the book “On Tyranny,”
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which was positioned as a sort of a guide to resistance.
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And you start that book by saying
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"history does not repeat, but it does instruct."
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And I'm curious,
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just maybe as a place to jump off to other questions,
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to think about how you,
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as a historian who gives a lot of thought to the current moment,
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use that thinking to guide you.
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TS: Oh, thank you, that's a really kind question.
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I appreciate the assumption that history matters.
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I think you've named the way that history matters the most,
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which is pattern recognition.
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So, for example,
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when the book was invented,
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that caused 150 years of mental chaos and religious war.
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And now books are a very nice thing, right,
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now we all love books.
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And we're in the internet
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and we're kind of in that same stage where it's causing all sorts of chaos.
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Eventually, we'll probably get it under control.
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But we shouldn't be surprised it's causing all kinds of chaos.
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Another good example is the way that, historically speaking,
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the people who have cared about democracy
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have also been the ones who have talked about risk.
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And, I cited Frederick Douglass,
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there's a whole African-American tradition of this.
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But there's also a deep tradition which goes all the way back
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to the meaning of the word democracy in ancient Greece,
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where, when Pericles is talking about democracy,
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he can't talk about democracy without physical risk.
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There's not an assumption that democracy is just brought.
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There's the conviction -- this is important --
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there's the conviction that it's better.
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And then there's the assumption that it will take lots of work, right?
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And that, you know, democracy ... usually fails.
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History shows us it usually fails.
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But when it's out there, when it's on the rise,
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there's this knowledge that it's difficult
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13:00
and then there's this conviction that it's better.
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And in my talk, my little tiny talk,
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I was trying to get across this conviction. ...
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You can’t just say it’s like, out there
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and it's either there or it's not there.
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13:10
Because the moment that you think it's brought by the outside forces,
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if the outside forces aren't going your way,
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then you just turn tail and run.
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But if you think,
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"Actually, I'm convinced this is much better than the alternatives,"
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then you might react a little bit differently.
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WPR: It's better, but harder.
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TS: Better, but harder.
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WPR: Better but harder.
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Well .. you have a book out now, “The Road to Unfreedom,”
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and it looks at basically
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how tyranny has been able to thrive in spaces in Europe,
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particularly, you know, you talk a lot about Russia.
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13:47
And this book came out in 2018,
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which preceded the war in Ukraine.
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But there are a lot of things there
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that I think sort of signpost what's really to come
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and what's been happening there for, as you detail, many, many decades.
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And, you know, I think one thing that you outline in there
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is this idea of two different types of tyrannical politics
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that I think is sort of helpful
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in thinking about how we might see these threats to democracy
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that are happening globally.
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You know, you talk about this idea of inevitability politics,
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14:19
and eternity politics.
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And I’d love for you to spend a few minutes sort of describing these two.
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How did they come to exist
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and what is the threat that they each pose?
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TS: Thank you for that.
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So the politics of inevitability
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14:34
is what I was talking about earlier in my little talk,
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14:37
just without using the name.
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It's the idea that everything is coming to you.
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14:41
It's the idea of progress.
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It's the idea that there are no alternatives,
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14:45
that history is over
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and that we’re all just kind of on a vector
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14:50
where things are going to turn out OK.
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And the problem with that is not just that it's not true,
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14:55
but that it paves the way for worse things.
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14:58
So if you think there's only one future,
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15:00
it's a short step to thinking there are no futures.
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15:02
If you think technology is always going to be good,
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it's very easy not to notice when technology starts to turn against you
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15:08
or against democracy.
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If you think capitalism is going to bring democracy,
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then you're not going to be as alert to inequality as you should be.
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15:15
Or you might say inequality is fine,
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15:17
it's a sign the system is working,
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which is, I think, completely wrong.
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15:20
And then at some point, all of this snaps
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and you lose the one future you thought you had
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and you make a turn towards, as we've already seen in the US,
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a politics of eternity,
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where suddenly nobody's talking about the future.
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15:32
Everything's a cycle back towards the past.
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15:35
The leading politicians are talking
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about how to make the country great again,
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you know, which is, I think, senseless.
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15:41
The ability to make connections across different kinds of people is lost
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15:47
because it's all about nostalgia
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15:49
and it's about the innocence that we once lost
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15:52
rather than the good policy that we might make.
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15:54
And then there's a third kind of politics, which follows after that,
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15:57
which we’re edging into if we’re not very careful --
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I think of as the politics of catastrophe.
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16:02
Because one of the features of the politics of eternity
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is that it almost always denies climate change.
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16:07
The politics of inevitability says, yeah, there's climate change,
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16:10
but it's going to be okay, we're going to figure it out.
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16:13
The politics of eternity tends to deny science in general
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16:16
and climate change in particular,
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16:17
which then sets us up for something much worse.
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16:20
You can pretend that politics is all about the past,
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16:23
but while you're doing that,
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16:24
climate change is still happening
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16:26
and that means that a real catastrophe is coming.
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16:28
So the politics of eternity sets us up for something which is worse even.
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16:33
WPR: And I mean, you have detailed how sort of, these types of politics
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16:38
including the politics of catastrophe, have existed for quite some time.
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16:42
And I think when you think about this moment that we're in right now
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16:46
and sort of the present threats that might exist to democracy,
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3400
16:49
how do you compare the way
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1800
16:51
that we're experiencing these types of politics today
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16:54
versus other moments in history, for instance
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16:56
around either of the world wars or, you know,
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16:59
when you think about the Great Depression and other global crises,
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17:02
how are we positioned in a better place or a worse?
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17:06
TS: That's a great question, too.
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I think one way that it's better is that we do have the history.
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17:13
So things aren't exactly like 1933.
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17:19
Things aren't exactly like 1917 or 1939.
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17:23
But when we have that history,
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17:25
we can at least look for some patterns.
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1920
17:27
And if we're serious about it, then we realize that,
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17:30
oh, look, there were moments
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17:31
where it seemed like the larger forces were definitely pushing away
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17:35
from democracy.
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17:37
And those larger forces are important.
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1960
17:39
You know, you can recognize them, you can say, aha,
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17:41
economic inequality mattered a huge amount in the 1930s,
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17:44
and it certainly did.
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17:46
The sense that there was no future mattered a huge amount in the 1930s.
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17:50
That made it very tough for democracies.
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17:53
But we can also see that democracies came back from that, right?
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4080
17:58
That democracies recovered from that.
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17:59
Countries which were at the very bottom,
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18:01
like Germany, within a few decades were at the very top,
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18:04
if we're considering how well their democracies work.
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2520
18:06
So we have that history where we can diagnose
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18:09
and we can see that recovery is possible.
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1960
18:11
And I think that does give us an advantage
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18:13
if we choose to use that advantage.
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18:15
I mean, one of the things I worry about us
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18:17
is that we tend to say like, everything is new,
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3160
18:21
like, nothing has happened before.
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1680
18:22
And of course, nothing is exactly like what's happened before.
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2920
18:25
But the past gives us this terrific possibility to say, OK,
400
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2880
18:28
things can go very, very, very wrong.
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1920
18:30
They can go so wrong that it seems hopeless.
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2440
18:33
And yet, recoveries can be staged.
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2800
18:36
WPR: TED Member Pedro asks something that's somewhat connected to this.
404
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4520
18:41
They say, "The forces against democracy today
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2120
18:43
make use of advanced technologies and methods
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2440
18:45
and the, dare I say, romantic democratic behavior
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2680
18:48
of speaking, acting, protesting don't seem to be enough.
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2960
18:51
What do you think about a more proactive
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1920
18:53
or even defensive democracy like we see in Germany, for instance?
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18:56
Do we need to do more to update mindsets?"
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19:00
TS: Yeah, I'm all aboard for that.
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1920
19:02
Number one,
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19:04
I'm going to go back to my obscure book comparison
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19:07
because this is one of the things that historians do.
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2480
19:09
If we look at the book, like, I’m looking at a bunch of books,
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2920
19:12
in my background, there are a bunch of books,
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2120
19:14
they're in covers,
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1000
19:15
they have copyright, they have authors.
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1880
19:17
All that stuff had to be invented.
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1640
19:19
When the printing press was created, there wasn't copyright or authorship.
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3520
19:22
There was all kinds of plagiarism and slander and libel and abuse.
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3120
19:26
And it did, in fact, lead to war.
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2640
19:29
It led to wars in which a third of the population of Europe were killed.
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3800
19:32
So here we are again with another communications technology.
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3440
19:36
And with this other communications technology, we cannot think, oh,
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19:39
let's just let it do whatever it does.
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1920
19:41
And like, the magical free market of blah blah, you know,
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19:44
there is no magical free market of blah blah.
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2120
19:46
You have to have conventions which allow people to express themselves
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4840
19:51
in a way which is consistent with basic decency
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2680
19:54
and with the kinds of institutions that you want to have, like democracy.
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3440
19:57
So the web is set up,
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2200
19:59
the internet is set up in the way it is basically accidentally.
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2960
20:02
There's no reason to say like,
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1480
20:04
oh, this accident has some kind of foundational magical power
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3280
20:07
and it can't be changed.
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1480
20:09
There's no reason why social media
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20:10
has to be the way that it is right now.
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2480
20:13
There's no reason why Facebook, for example, can't propose
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3520
20:16
that, you know, algorithmically,
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20:19
that you go to local investigative reporting.
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3440
20:23
There's no reason why we can't use proceeds from social media's huge profits
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20:27
to prop up that local media reporting,
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20:29
which would give people access to facts.
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20:31
In other words, it's a kind of magical thinking to say
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20:34
that the internet is the way that the internet has to be.
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20:37
And, you know, this is -- so I'm very much on board with that
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20:40
because I think that one of the things we got wrong in the last 30 years
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20:44
was the idea that like, this "high technology"
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20:47
would necessarily advance us.
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20:49
But in fact, a lot of this high technology
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2040
20:51
is basically incredibly low-tech behaviorist brain hacks,
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3760
20:55
which are just carried out on a massive scale
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2480
20:58
and have the result that people find themselves more alienated,
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3360
21:01
more isolated, and with more extreme views
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2440
21:03
than they would have had otherwise.
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1920
21:05
And so if we take the position that I started with,
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2400
21:08
namely that democracy is a good thing
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21:09
and we need to commit ourselves to it, take responsibility for it,
460
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3120
21:13
then we should say, "You know what?
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1680
21:14
It's actually not that important
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1600
21:16
that big, profitable countries get to carry out,
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2240
21:18
infinitely scaled behaviorists brain hacks.
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3360
21:21
That's not that important.
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1240
21:23
What's important is that we have means of communicating with one another,
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21:26
which allow us to have the kinds of political systems
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2480
21:29
which are worth valuing.
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1160
21:30
So, yes is my answer to that question.
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21:32
WPR: TED Member Tore asks,
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1280
21:33
"Processing narratives that support your beliefs rather than facts
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3160
21:36
is a big issue for the US and other countries.
472
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2160
21:38
Historically, what has been the self-correcting process
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2600
21:41
to move back towards fact-based judgments?”
474
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2240
21:43
Which I think is in some ways connected to this idea
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2480
21:46
of the ways we use social media.
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2520
21:49
TS: Yeah, that question is, I mean ...
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21:51
but that question is bang on.
478
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21:53
And one of the answers is we have to change the algorithms.
479
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3000
21:56
But another answer is that we used to have -- not just in the US,
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4880
22:01
but in other countries too, although it’s really striking here --
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3080
22:04
we used to have investigative reporting,
482
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2440
22:06
and we really don’t anymore.
483
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1520
22:08
We're in this very weird situation
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1640
22:10
where all of us stare at screens all day long
485
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2160
22:12
and what we're looking for is the news, you know?
486
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2320
22:14
And me too, I do this, too.
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1320
22:15
I’m looking for the latest thing
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1920
22:17
that's happened in some region of Ukraine.
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2000
22:19
But we don't actually have our system set up in such a way
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4360
22:24
as to make it a way that people can make a living
491
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3000
22:27
and actually go hunt down those stories.
492
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2120
22:29
So we have this mechanism, the internet,
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1920
22:31
which reproduces and which spins and which aims for profit.
494
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3120
22:34
And the reason the facts are important is not just so that you kind of have them.
495
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3840
22:38
It's also because facts are surprising.
496
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2280
22:41
Like, the only thing that can challenge a narrative is a fact.
497
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3080
22:44
My narrative, your narrative, doesn’t matter.
498
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2120
22:46
But if there aren't any facts,
499
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1440
22:47
our narratives are just going to rush forward unchallenged, right?
500
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3120
22:50
And ... if I have a narrative and you have a narrative,
501
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2680
22:53
those two aren’t going to correct each other.
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2360
22:55
The only thing that corrects the narrative
503
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2000
22:57
is surprising things that come in from the outside,
504
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2400
23:00
which you're not really ready for, but which you kind of can't deny
505
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3200
23:03
are maybe true, right?
506
1383580
1080
23:04
Like, that there’s mercury in your water
507
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1920
23:06
or that your city council member just took a 50,000-dollar bribe
508
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3040
23:09
or whatever it is, those things you’re not going to find out
509
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2840
23:12
without the investigative reporting.
510
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1720
23:14
So I agree with that, with the premise to this question,
511
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2680
23:16
I'm giving investigative reporting as my answer.
512
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2560
23:19
There are other answers,
513
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1160
23:20
but I'm going to move on because I know there are other questions.
514
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3120
23:24
WPR: We still have a lot of great member questions coming in.
515
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2880
23:27
This one sort of looks at an issue that we haven't gotten into very much yet.
516
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3840
23:31
TED Member Gabriela asks,
517
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2240
23:34
"How serious is the role of fossil fuels, particularly oil,
518
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2880
23:37
in threatening democracies in countries all over the world
519
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2720
23:39
and consequently basic human rights?"
520
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2240
23:42
TS: Yeah, it'll bring it to an end.
521
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1720
23:44
I mean, one of the categories that I used in my book,
522
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2720
23:47
"Road to Unfreedom"
523
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1360
23:48
and in the new book that I’m writing --
524
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1880
23:50
which is a philosophy book about freedom,
525
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1960
23:52
where I'm trying to sketch out a positive view of freedom
526
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2680
23:54
and what freedom actually is ...
527
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1560
23:56
and how the world could be better --
528
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1760
23:59
one of the concepts I use in these books is hydrocarbon oligarchy,
529
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4440
24:03
which -- actually I think I've stripped it down to fossil oligarchy
530
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3800
24:07
because that sounds a little bit -- maybe a little more,
531
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3240
24:10
more easy to grasp or something.
532
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1720
24:12
But I completely agree, we're never --
533
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2520
24:14
The hydrocarbons,
534
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1680
24:16
first of all, as I said before, they collapse the future
535
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3800
24:20
and democracy needs a future.
536
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1400
24:21
It's like oxygen for democracy.
537
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1600
24:23
I mean, if you'll forgive the simple metaphor,
538
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2160
24:25
it's like, if you can't see a future,
539
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2720
24:28
then you don't see the point of negotiations
540
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2680
24:31
and long conversations and balances.
541
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2480
24:33
And, you know, if you don't see the future,
542
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2240
24:36
then you think, "I've got to take something right now."
543
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2600
24:38
You know, "I've got to take something right now,"
544
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2320
24:40
which is where climate change will inevitably drive most of us.
545
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2960
24:43
Climate change is going to affect the least privileged people first.
546
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4400
24:48
It's already doing that,
547
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1440
24:49
but it will eventually drive all of us into this space
548
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3960
24:53
where we think, "OK, I don't have time to talk.
549
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2720
24:56
I have to look after, number one,
550
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2720
24:59
I've got to look after my children, I have to take what I can take."
551
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3200
25:02
And in that spirit, democracy can't thrive.
552
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2000
25:04
And then secondly,
553
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25:05
hydrocarbon oligarchy leads to a situation
554
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2640
25:08
where you have these people
555
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2240
25:10
who, whether they have to be dictators or not,
556
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25:12
have this sort of whimsical power over the rest of us.
557
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3320
25:16
So Vladimir Putin is the world’s leading hydrocarbon ... oligarch
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25:20
and like other hydrocarbon oligarchs,
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25:22
he has weird political ideas.
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25:24
He's not the only one, though, right?
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25:26
I mean, there are hydrocarbon oligarchs in the United States
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25:30
who think things like, well,
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25:31
there shouldn’t really be a government ...
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25:34
and let's all be libertarians,
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25:35
even though the only reason they have their own rights to exploit
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25:38
is that the state intervened on behalf of them, their company
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25:41
or their predecessors at some point.
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25:43
So hydrocarbons tend to concentrate wealth,
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25:46
and by concentrating wealth they also warp conversations
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25:50
and we end up then dealing with Russia invading Ukraine,
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25:53
which wouldn't be possible without hydrocarbon dependency.
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25:56
Or we end up in the US with these weird conversations
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25:59
about whether there should be a government or not,
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26:01
which wouldn’t be possible. ...
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26:03
The fact that in the United States money has a vote
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26:06
or money is considered to have freedom of speech
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26:09
is a direct result of hydrocarbon oligarchy.
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26:11
It's a direct result of that, right?
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26:13
So no, democracy will not make it with hydrocarbons.
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26:15
And I think these things are in a very intimate relationship,
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26:19
where we have to move on to different kinds of fuels,
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26:22
not just because of simple physical survival,
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26:25
but also in order to protect or really to advance or to make possible
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26:29
the kind of freedom we would want in the future.
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26:33
WPR: And we have a question from TED member Tau,
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26:35
which I find really interesting.
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26:37
Really interested to hear how you respond to this.
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26:39
They ask, "Why should democracy survive?
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26:43
Democracies have proved to be unstable, corrupt, filled with voter ignorance
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26:47
and finally, do not prevent wars or violence.
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26:49
Why should we hold on to this imperfect ideal
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26:51
and not instead make room for a new system that might emerge?"
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26:55
TS: To paraphrase Winston Churchill,
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26:57
the new systems that are emerging are all just a hell of a lot worse
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27:00
on all those criteria which were just mentioned,
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27:02
whether it was corruption, ignorance or disinterest of voters,
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2920
27:05
there wouldn't be any more voters to be disinterested, for one thing.
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27:08
So, I mean, if we could look off at planet Venus and say, well, gosh,
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27:11
there's a system where people are happier and freer
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27:14
and live longer lives than our democracies,
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27:16
then maybe, yeah.
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27:17
But I’m looking at the really existing alternatives like China
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27:20
and Russia and so on,
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27:21
which are pushing themselves as a kind of model
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27:24
in the world that we actually live in.
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27:26
And on all the criteria that were just mentioned, they do worse.
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27:30
So the reason that -- I mean,
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27:32
I appreciate the question because of the "should" part of it,
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27:35
because I think it's indispensable in these conversations
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27:38
to answer the "should" question.
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1800
27:40
The reason why I think democracy is a better kind of system
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27:43
is not because it's perfect, obviously.
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27:45
It's because I think that it, as the conceptual and ethical framework,
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27:49
gives us a place to aim for
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2440
27:52
where we then can end up with better things than we have.
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27:56
So premise number one,
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1720
27:58
democracies are flawed,
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1280
27:59
but they can be made better or worse.
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28:01
And if you say, "Oh, they're all just doomed,"
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2320
28:04
or they're not really any better than like, you know,
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2560
28:06
they’re not really any better than dying young in a prison in Russia ...
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3400
28:10
or they're not really any better than being observed your entire life
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28:13
from cradle to grave
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1200
28:14
and being homogenized like in China.
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1760
28:16
If you start from that premise,
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1720
28:18
then you're not going to get anywhere.
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28:20
But whereas democracy is the idea that the people will rule.
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28:23
And I think that's a better idea
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28:25
than that the people will not rule.
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1960
28:27
And the reason why I think it’s a better idea is that ...
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28:30
I believe there’s something special about humans
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28:33
where we prosper and thrive
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28:36
and add something to the universe when we're free.
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28:38
I think democracy is the best framework for that.
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28:40
An improving democracy, a better democracy.
636
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3480
28:44
So that's the first premise, right?
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28:46
The fact that things are imperfect
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28:48
doesn't mean that you toss them away.
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3360
28:51
And the second premise is that these alternatives
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28:55
are actually really bad.
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28:56
So ... I’m happy to make room
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29:00
for better forms of representation,
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29:01
happy to make room for local assemblies.
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29:03
But I'm not happy to make room for hydrocarbon oligarchy.
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3160
29:07
I'm not happy to make room for one-party rule.
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29:10
I'm not happy to make room
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29:11
for the things which are actually out there.
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29:14
WPR: And we actually have a couple of questions
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29:16
from a couple of members about kids and children,
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29:20
basically how to help them think about democracy,
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29:23
from both TED Member Areigna, and TED Member DK.
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2880
29:26
How do we teach our kids to "do democracy?"
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29:30
TS: Yeah, I love that question.
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29:32
It's one that I struggle with all the time.
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29:34
But also it's one where I learn things from my own kids all the time,
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29:39
like, they say some pretty fresh things which help me out,
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29:43
some pretty clarifying things.
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29:45
So, I mean, with kids ...
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29:49
Look, I think you teach ...
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29:53
if you're dealing with young people,
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29:56
so I deal with younger people in my line of work and like,
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3600
29:59
they can maybe, you know, tell me how wrong I am.
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30:02
But my general sense is that you can't tell young people,
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30:05
students or kids, that everything's going to be OK.
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3000
30:08
Like, the politics of inevitability is obviously dead.
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30:11
And so stories about how, you know, everything's going to be OK,
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30:15
whether it's like, citing Martin Luther King
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30:17
or referring to the Founding Fathers,
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30:20
I think that's off the table.
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30:21
I think you have to talk about democracy
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30:24
as a struggle where there are really good examples
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30:27
and you teach the examples of democracy.
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30:31
I do think it's important, in teaching it as a struggle,
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30:35
to also be teaching it as an ideal.
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30:37
So America could be a democracy.
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30:40
Here's some of the ways that people have pushed in that direction in the past,
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30:44
... that we need to be pushing in the future.
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30:46
And sorry that I'm talking about America.
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1960
30:48
It's just that as soon as kids come in, I narrow down right away
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30:51
to my own country.
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30:54
So that it's a struggle
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30:55
and that it's a possible future.
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30:58
But I think maybe even more important than all those things
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31:01
is modeling democracy.
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31:03
Not in the sense that you have a vote about what you do with your kids,
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31:07
because then it's always like,
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31:08
let's eat a bag of candy or whatever.
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31:10
Not in the narrow sense,
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1320
31:11
but modeling democracy in the sense of ...
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31:15
In the way that parents talk with their friends
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31:18
and in the way that, like, people around the house behave,
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31:20
that you get a sense of like, horizontal conversation
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31:23
and different interests being taken into account
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31:25
and things like that.
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31:27
That's about as well as I could do.
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31:29
I mean, if I had a magical answer to this,
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31:31
I'm sure my children would be much better behaved than they are.
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31:34
But, I mean, to repeat,
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31:35
I think in a way, it's kind of the other way around.
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31:38
Like, I try really hard to make sure I am listening to my kids,
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31:42
because in a way, all this is all about them.
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2120
31:44
Like the big collapse that could happen
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31:46
where democracy and climate
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31:48
and all these things get intertwined.
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31:50
I mean, one of the premises of my book, which you were kind enough to ask about,
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31:54
is that we will either be free and secure
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31:58
or we will die under tyranny.
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32:01
That freedom and security go together.
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32:04
I think that freedom, democracy, security actually go together.
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32:07
If we're going to get out from under climate change,
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32:09
it's going to be as free people.
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32:11
And if we end up in tyrannies,
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32:14
those things are going to tend to accelerate climate change
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2800
32:17
and profit from it
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32:18
so there's a negative intertwining over here
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32:20
and a positive one over here.
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32:22
I think that's something that we can stress with kids.
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32:25
Not say, “Oh, you’re going to be in this terrible future
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32:27
where you’re going to have to choose between security and freedom.” ...
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32:32
I think we have to teach,
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32:33
"Look, if we get the freedom and the democracy part right,
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32:35
we can get the climate part right.
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32:37
And if we get the climate part right,
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32:39
that's going to help us get the democracy part right."
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32:41
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