The Math Behind Basketball's Wildest Moves | Rajiv Maheswaran | TED Talks

1,106,478 views

2015-07-06 ใƒป TED


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The Math Behind Basketball's Wildest Moves | Rajiv Maheswaran | TED Talks

1,106,478 views ใƒป 2015-07-06

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Jeonghyeon Yeon ๊ฒ€ํ† : Gemma Lee
00:12
My colleagues and I are fascinated by the science of moving dots.
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๋™๋ฃŒ์™€ ์ €๋Š” ์›€์ง์ด๋Š” ์ ์˜ ๊ณผํ•™์— ํ‘น ๋น ์ ธ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:16
So what are these dots?
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์ด ์ ๋“ค์€ ๋ฌด์—‡์ผ๊นŒ์š”?
00:18
Well, it's all of us.
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๊ธ€์„ธ์š”. ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘์ฃ .
00:19
And we're moving in our homes, in our offices, as we shop and travel
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ง‘์—์„œ๋‚˜ ํšŒ์‚ฌ์—์„œ๋„ ์›€์ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์‹œ๋‚ด๋ฅผ ๋Œ๋ฉฐ ์‡ผํ•‘ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์—ฌํ–‰ํ•  ๋•Œ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
00:24
throughout our cities and around the world.
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00:26
And wouldn't it be great if we could understand all this movement?
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์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ์›€์ง์ž„์„ ์ดํ•ดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๊ต‰์žฅํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„๊นŒ์š”?
00:30
If we could find patterns and meaning and insight in it.
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์›€์ง์ž„ ์†์— ๋‹ด๊ธด ํŒจํ„ด๊ณผ ์˜๋ฏธ๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์•„ ์ดํ•ดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด
00:34
And luckily for us, we live in a time
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๋‹คํ–‰ํžˆ ์ž์‹ ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜์ง‘ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ๋Šฅ์ˆ™ํ•œ ์‹œ๋Œ€์— ์‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:36
where we're incredibly good at capturing information about ourselves.
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00:40
So whether it's through sensors or videos, or apps,
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์„ผ์„œ๋‚˜ ๋น„๋””์˜ค๋‚˜ ์–ดํ”Œ์„ ํ†ตํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
00:44
we can track our movement with incredibly fine detail.
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์—„์ฒญ๋‚˜๊ฒŒ ์•„์ฃผ ๋ฏธ์„ธํ•˜๊ณ  ์ž์„ธํžˆ ์›€์ง์ž„์„ ๋‹ด์•„๋‚ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์›€์ง์ž„์„ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ž˜ ์ˆ˜์ง‘ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ณณ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๊ฐ€
00:48
So it turns out one of the places where we have the best data about movement
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00:53
is sports.
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์Šคํฌ์ธ ์ฃ .
00:54
So whether it's basketball or baseball, or football or the other football,
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๋†๊ตฌ, ์•ผ๊ตฌ, ๋ฏธ์‹์ถ•๊ตฌ, ์ถ•๊ตฌ ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ๋ผ๋ฉด
01:00
we're instrumenting our stadiums and our players to track their movements
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๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์žฅ์—์„œ ์„ ์ˆ˜๋“ค์˜ ์›€์ง์ž„์„ ํฌ์ฐฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:04
every fraction of a second.
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๋งค์ดˆ ๋ชจ๋“  ์›€์ง์ž„์„ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
01:05
So what we're doing is turning our athletes into --
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๋™๋ฃŒ์™€ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ์€ ์„ ์ˆ˜๋“ค์„
01:10
you probably guessed it --
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์•„๋งˆ ์ง์ž‘ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”
01:12
moving dots.
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์›€์ง์ด๋Š” ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณ€ํ™˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:13
So we've got mountains of moving dots and like most raw data,
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์›€์ง์ด๋Š” ์ ์„ ์—„์ฒญ ๋งŽ์ด ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ์›๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
01:18
it's hard to deal with and not that interesting.
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์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ธฐ๋„ ์–ด๋ ต๊ณ  ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กญ์ง€๋„ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
01:21
But there are things that, for example, basketball coaches want to know.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค๋ฉด ๋†๊ตฌ ์ฝ”์น˜๋“ค์ด ์•Œ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ์žˆ์ฃ .
01:25
And the problem is they can't know them because they'd have to watch every second
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๋งค ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ง€์ผœ๋ณด๊ณ  ๊ธฐ์–ตํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์ฃ .
01:29
of every game, remember it and process it.
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01:31
And a person can't do that,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์ฃ .
01:33
but a machine can.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๋Š” ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:35
The problem is a machine can't see the game with the eye of a coach.
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๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์ฝ”์น˜์˜ ๋ˆˆ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์ง€์ผœ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
01:39
At least they couldn't until now.
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์ ์–ด๋„ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€๋Š”์š”.
01:42
So what have we taught the machine to see?
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๊ธฐ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด ๋ฌด์—‡์„ ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์ณ์•ผ ํ• ๊นŒ์š”?
01:45
So, we started simply.
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๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•œ ๊ฒƒ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์–ด์š”.
01:47
We taught it things like passes, shots and rebounds.
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ํŒจ์Šค, ์Š›, ๋ฆฌ๋ฐ”์šด๋“œ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์ณค์ฃ .
01:51
Things that most casual fans would know.
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๋ณดํ†ต ํŒฌ์ด๋ผ๋ฉด ๊ทธ ์ •๋„๋Š” ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
01:53
And then we moved on to things slightly more complicated.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๋‹ค์Œ ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๋” ์–ด๋ ค์šด ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์ณค์ฃ .
01:56
Events like post-ups, and pick-and-rolls, and isolations.
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ํฌ์ŠคํŠธ์—…, ํ”ฝ์•ค๋กค, ์•„์ด์†”๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด์ฃ .
02:01
And if you don't know them, that's okay. Most casual players probably do.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ๋ชฐ๋ผ๋„ ๊ดœ์ฐฎ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ๋ณดํ†ต ํŒฌ๋“ค๋„ ์•„๋งˆ ๊ทธ๋Ÿด ๊ฑฐ์˜ˆ์š”.
02:05
Now, we've gotten to a point where today, the machine understands complex events
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ํ˜„์žฌ๋Š” ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ๋ณต์žกํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ์ดํ•ดํ•˜๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ค€๊นŒ์ง€ ์™€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:10
like down screens and wide pins.
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๋‹ค์šด ์Šคํฌ๋ฆฐ๊ณผ ์™€์ด๋“œ ํ•€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
02:14
Basically things only professionals know.
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๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๋งŒ ์•„๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:16
So we have taught a machine to see with the eyes of a coach.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์ฝ”์น˜์˜ ๋ˆˆ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์ณ ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:22
So how have we been able to do this?
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
02:24
If I asked a coach to describe something like a pick-and-roll,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ฝ”์น˜์—๊ฒŒ ํ”ฝ์•ค๋กค ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ์„ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•ด ๋‹ฌ๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜๋ฉด
02:27
they would give me a description,
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์ œ๊ฒŒ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•˜์ฃ .
๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ์ „ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์œผ๋กœ ์ธ์ฝ”๋”ฉํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด ์ฃฝ์„ ๋ง›์ด์ฃ .
02:29
and if I encoded that as an algorithm, it would be terrible.
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02:33
The pick-and-roll happens to be this dance in basketball between four players,
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ํ”ฝ์•ค๋กค์€ ๋†๊ตฌ์—์„œ 4๋ช… ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์‚ฌ์ด์—์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์‹์œผ๋กœ ์›€์ง์ด๋ฉฐ ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:37
two on offense and two on defense.
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๋‘๋ช…์€ ๊ณต๊ฒฉํ•˜๊ณ  ๋‘ ๋ช…์€ ๋ฐฉ์–ดํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
02:39
And here's kind of how it goes.
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค๋ฉด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฑฐ์˜ˆ์š”.
02:41
So there's the guy on offense without the ball
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๊ณต ์—†์ด ๊ณต๊ฒฉํ•˜๋Š” ์„ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:43
the ball and he goes next to the guy guarding the guy with the ball,
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๊ณต์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์„ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜๋น„ํ•˜๋Š” ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์˜†์„ ์ง€๋‚˜๊ฐ€๋‹ค๊ฐ€
02:46
and he kind of stays there
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์ž ์‹œ ๊ฑฐ๊ธฐ์— ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ฐ€
02:48
and they both move and stuff happens, and ta-da, it's a pick-and-roll.
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๊ทธ ์„ ์ˆ˜ ๋‘˜์ด ์›€์ง์˜€๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ์ฑ„์›Œ๋„ฃ์œผ๋ฉด์„œ ์งœ์ž”, ์ด๊ฒŒ ํ”ฝ์•ค๋กค์ด์ฃ .
02:51
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
02:53
So that is also an example of a terrible algorithm.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ ์—ญ์‹œ ๋ณต์žกํ•œ ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์˜ ์˜ˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:56
So, if the player who's the interferer -- he's called the screener --
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๋ง‰์•„ ์ฃผ๋Š” ์„ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์Šคํฌ๋ฆฌ๋„ˆ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถ€๋ฅด๋Š”๋ฐ
03:01
goes close by, but he doesn't stop,
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๊ฐ€๊นŒ์ด ๋‹ค๊ฐ€๊ฐ€์ง€๋งŒ ๋ง‰์•„์ฃผ์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด
03:04
it's probably not a pick-and-roll.
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์•„๋งˆ ํ”ฝ์•ค๋กค์€ ์•„๋‹Œ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™๋„ค์š”.
03:06
Or if he does stop, but he doesn't stop close enough,
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๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ๋ง‰์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์ด์—์„œ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ๋ง‰์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด
03:10
it's probably not a pick-and-roll.
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์•„๋งˆ ํ”ฝ์•ค๋กค์ด ์•„๋‹ ๊ฑฐ์˜ˆ์š”.
03:12
Or, if he does go close by and he does stop
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๋˜๋Š” ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์ด ๋‹ค๊ฐ€๊ฐ€์„œ ๋ง‰๋Š”๋ฐ
03:15
but they do it under the basket, it's probably not a pick-and-roll.
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๊ณจ๋Œ€ ์•„๋ž˜์„œ์—์„œ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์•„๋งˆ ํ”ฝ์•ค๋กค์ด ์•„๋‹ ๊ฑฐ์˜ˆ์š”.
03:19
Or I could be wrong, they could all be pick-and-rolls.
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ‹€๋ ธ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋งํ•œ ๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ ํ”ฝ์•ค๋กค์ด๊ฒ ์ฃ .
03:22
It really depends on the exact timing, the distances, the locations,
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์ •ํ™•ํ•œ ํƒ€์ด๋ฐ, ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ, ์œ„์น˜์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ง„์งœ ๋‹ฌ๋ผ์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:26
and that's what makes it hard.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ ๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ํž˜๋“  ๊ฑฐ์ง€์š”.
03:28
So, luckily, with machine learning, we can go beyond our own ability
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๋‹คํ–‰์ด ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ํ•™์Šต์„ ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ
03:33
to describe the things we know.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๋„˜์–ด์„ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:35
So how does this work? Well, it's by example.
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์ด๊ฒŒ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ• ๊นŒ์š”? ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด๋ณด์ฃ .
03:37
So we go to the machine and say, "Good morning, machine.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์—๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ€์„œ "์ข‹์€ ์•„์นจ์ด๋„ค. ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ ์”จ.
03:41
Here are some pick-and-rolls, and here are some things that are not.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๋ช‡ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ํ”ฝ์•ค๋กค๊ณผ ์ด์ „์— ์—†๋˜ ๋ช‡ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋„ค.
03:44
Please find a way to tell the difference."
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๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ฐพ์•„ ์ฐจ์ด์ ์„ ๋งํ•ด์คฌ์œผ๋ฉด ํ•ด."
03:47
And the key to all of this is to find features that enable it to separate.
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์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์˜ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์€ ํŠน์ง•์„ ์ฐพ์•„ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ถ„๋ฆฌํ•ด๋‚ด๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
03:50
So if I was going to teach it the difference
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ๊ณผ์™€ ์˜ค๋ Œ์ง€์˜ ์ฐจ์ด์ ์„ ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋ฉด
03:52
between an apple and orange,
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"์ƒ‰๊ณผ ๋ชจ์–‘์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ์–ด๋•Œ?"๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๊ฒ ์ฃ .
03:54
I might say, "Why don't you use color or shape?"
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03:56
And the problem that we're solving is, what are those things?
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ’€๋ ค๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ๋ญ”๊ฐ€๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
03:59
What are the key features
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์–ด๋–ค ํ•ต์‹ฌ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ์œผ๋กœ
04:00
that let a computer navigate the world of moving dots?
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์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ์›€์ง์ด๋Š” ์ ์˜ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
04:04
So figuring out all these relationships with relative and absolute location,
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์ƒ๋Œ€์ ์ด๊ณ  ์ ˆ๋Œ€์ ์ธ ์œ„์น˜, ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ, ํƒ€์ด๋ฐ, ์†๋„๋กœ
04:09
distance, timing, velocities --
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์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์„ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
04:11
that's really the key to the science of moving dots, or as we like to call it,
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๊ทธ๊ฒŒ "์›€์ง์ด๋Š” ์ ์˜ ๊ณผํ•™"์—์„œ ์ง„์งœ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์ด์ฃ .
ํ•™๊ณ„์—์„œ ์“ฐ๋Š” ๋ง๋กœ๋Š” ์‹œ๊ณต๊ฐ„์  ํŒจํ„ด ์ธ์‹์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜์ฃ .
04:16
spatiotemporal pattern recognition, in academic vernacular.
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04:19
Because the first thing is, you have to make it sound hard --
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ๋ฐœ์Œํ•˜๊ธฐ ํž˜๋“ค๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
04:22
because it is.
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์„ธ๊ฒŒ ๋ฐœ์Œํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:24
The key thing is, for NBA coaches, it's not that they want to know
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ํ•ต์‹ฌ์€ NBA์ฝ”์น˜๋“ค์ด ์•Œ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
04:27
whether a pick-and-roll happened or not.
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ํ”ฝ์•ค๋กค์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ๋Š”์ง€ ์•ˆ ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ๋Š”์ง€๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
04:29
It's that they want to know how it happened.
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š๋ƒํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
04:31
And why is it so important to them? So here's a little insight.
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์™œ ๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ์ฝ”์น˜์—๊ฒŒ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ค‘์š”ํ• ๊นŒ์š”? ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ง๊ด€๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
04:34
It turns out in modern basketball,
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ํ˜„๋Œ€ ๋†๊ตฌ์—์„œ ๋ฐํ˜€์ง„ ๋ฐ”๋กœ๋Š”
04:36
this pick-and-roll is perhaps the most important play.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ํ”ฝ์•ค๋กค ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ์•„๋งˆ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:39
And knowing how to run it, and knowing how to defend it,
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฐฉ์–ดํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ์•„๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
04:41
is basically a key to winning and losing most games.
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๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์˜ ์ŠนํŒจ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€๋ฅด๋Š” ์—ด์‡ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:44
So it turns out that this dance has a great many variations
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์ด ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ๋งค์šฐ ๋งŽ์€ ๋ณ€ํ˜•์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ์•„๋ƒˆ์ฃ .
04:48
and identifying the variations is really the thing that matters,
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๋ณ€ํ˜•์„ ์•Œ์•„๋‚ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ง„์งœ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ผ์ด์ฃ .
04:51
and that's why we need this to be really, really good.
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์•„์ฃผ ์•„์ฃผ ์ž˜ ํ•ด๋‚ด๋ ค๋ฉด ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์ด์œ ์ฃ .
04:55
So, here's an example.
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค๋ฉด,
04:56
There are two offensive and two defensive players,
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๋‘ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ ์„ ์ˆ˜์™€ ๋‘ ์ˆ˜๋น„ ์„ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์ฃ .
04:58
getting ready to do the pick-and-roll dance.
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ํ”ฝ์•ค๋กค ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ์ค€๋น„ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๊ณต์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ์„ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์ผ ์ˆ˜๋„ ๊ฑฐ๋ถ€ํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์ฃ .
05:01
So the guy with ball can either take, or he can reject.
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05:04
His teammate can either roll or pop.
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๊ทธ์˜ ๋™๋ฃŒ๋Š” ๋’ค๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๋‚˜๊ฐ€๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์™ธ๊ณฝ์ชฝ์œผ๋กœ ๋น ์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ .
05:07
The guy guarding the ball can either go over or under.
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์ˆ˜๋น„ ์„ ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์œ„์ชฝ ๋˜๋Š” ์•„๋ž˜์ชฝ์œผ๋กœ ๋›ธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ .
๊ทธ์˜ ๋™๋ฃŒ๋Š” ๊ณต์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ์„ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋”ฐ๋ผ๊ฐ€๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์Šคํฌ๋ฆฌ๋„ˆ๋ฅผ ๋ง‰๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
05:10
His teammate can either show or play up to touch, or play soft
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๋’ค์ชฝ์œผ๋กœ ๋น ์ง€๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
05:14
and together they can either switch or blitz
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๋‘˜๋‹ค ์Šค์œ„์น˜๋‚˜ ๋ธ”๋ฆฌ์น˜๋ฅผ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ .
05:17
and I didn't know most of these things when I started
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•  ๋•Œ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ๋ชฐ๋ž์–ด์š”.
05:20
and it would be lovely if everybody moved according to those arrows.
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๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ํ™”์‚ดํ‘œ๋Œ€๋กœ ์›€์ง์ธ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์ข‹์•˜์„ ๊ฑฐ์˜ˆ์š”.
05:23
It would make our lives a lot easier, but it turns out movement is very messy.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ์•„์ฃผ ์‰ฌ์› ์„ ํ…๋ฐ ์›€์ง์ž„์€ ๋งค์šฐ ๋ณต์žกํ–ˆ์ฃ .
์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋งค์šฐ ์ž์ฃผ ์›€์ง์ด๊ณ  ๋ณ€ํ˜•๋„ ๋งŽ์•˜์ฃ .
05:28
People wiggle a lot and getting these variations identified
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๋งค์šฐ ์ •๋ฐ€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ™•์ธํ•ด ๋ฐ”๋กœ๋Š”์š”.
05:33
with very high accuracy,
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05:34
both in precision and recall, is tough
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์ •ํ™•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํšŒ์ƒํ•˜๊ธฐ๋Š” ํž˜๋“ค์—ˆ์–ด์š”.
05:36
because that's what it takes to get a professional coach to believe in you.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ๋ฏฟ์„ ๋งŒํ•œ ์ „๋ฌธ ์ฝ”์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ตฌํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๊ฑธ๋ ธ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
05:40
And despite all the difficulties with the right spatiotemporal features
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์ •ํ™•ํ•œ ์‹œ๊ณต๊ฐ„ ํŠน์ง•์„ ์ฐพ์•„๋‚ธ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์–ด๋ ค์›€์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ 
05:43
we have been able to do that.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ•ด๋‚ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์ฝ”์น˜๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์˜ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๋ฏฟ๊ณ  ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ณ€ํ˜•์„ ํ™•์ธํ–ˆ์ฃ .
05:45
Coaches trust our ability of our machine to identify these variations.
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05:49
We're at the point where almost every single contender
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๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์ž๋“ค์ด
05:53
for an NBA championship this year
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์˜ฌํ•ด NBA ์„ ์ˆ˜๊ถŒ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด
05:54
is using our software, which is built on a machine that understands
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์ด ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์›จ์–ด๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ .
๋†๊ตฌ์˜ ์›€์ง์ด๋Š” ์ ์„ ์ดํ•ดํ•˜๋Š” ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“  ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์›จ์–ด ๋ง์ด์—์š”.
05:59
the moving dots of basketball.
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06:01
So not only that, we have given advice that has changed strategies
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์ „์ˆ ์„ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋Š” ์กฐ์–ธ์„ ํ•ด ์ค˜
06:07
that have helped teams win very important games,
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ํŒ€์„ ๋„์™€ ๋งค์šฐ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์—์„œ ์Šน๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
06:10
and it's very exciting because you have coaches who've been in the league
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๋งค์šฐ ๋“ค๋–ด๋˜ ์ด์œ ๋Š” 30๋…„๋™์•ˆ ๋ฆฌ๊ทธ์—์„œ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋˜ ์ฝ”์น˜๊ฐ€
06:14
for 30 years that are willing to take advice from a machine.
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๊ธฐ๊ณ„์—์„œ ๋‚˜์˜จ ์กฐ์–ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๊บผ์ด ์ˆ˜์šฉํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
06:17
And it's very exciting, it's much more than the pick-and-roll.
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ํ”ฝ์•ค๋กค์„ ์•Œ์•˜์„ ๋•Œ๋ณด๋‹ค ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ์‹ ๋‚ฌ์–ด์š”.
06:20
Our computer started out with simple things
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์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๋Š” ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•œ ๊ฒƒ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ด์„œ
06:22
and learned more and more complex things
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์ ์  ๋” ๋ณต์žกํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ•™์Šตํ–ˆ๊ณ 
06:24
and now it knows so many things.
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์ง€๊ธˆ์€ ๋งŽ์€ ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:26
Frankly, I don't understand much of what it does,
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์†”์งํžˆ ์ „ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ์„ ๋‹ค ์ดํ•ดํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
06:29
and while it's not that special to be smarter than me,
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์ €๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋˜‘๋˜‘ํ•ด์ง„๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํŠน๋ณ„ํ•ด์ง€์ง€ ์•Š๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ
06:33
we were wondering, can a machine know more than a coach?
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๊ถ๊ธˆํ•˜๊ธฐ๋Š” ํ•˜๋„ค์š”. ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์ฝ”์น˜๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋งŽ์ด ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
06:36
Can it know more than person could know?
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋งŽ์ด ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
06:38
And it turns out the answer is yes.
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๋ฐํ˜€์ง„ ๋ฐ”๋กœ๋Š” "๋„ค."์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:40
The coaches want players to take good shots.
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์ฝ”์น˜๋Š” ์„ ์ˆ˜๋“ค์ด ์Š›์„ ์ž˜ ์˜๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:43
So if I'm standing near the basket
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ณจ๋Œ€ ๊ทผ์ฒ˜์— ์„œ ์žˆ๊ณ 
06:44
and there's nobody near me, it's a good shot.
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๊ทผ์ฒ˜์— ์•„๋ฌด๋„ ์—†๋‹ค๋ฉด ์Š›ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์ข‹์ฃ .
์ˆ˜๋น„์ˆ˜์— ๋‘˜๋Ÿฌ์‹ธ์—ฌ ๊ณจ๋Œ€ ๋ฉ€๋ฆฌ ์„œ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋Œ€๊ฐœ ์Š›ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์ข‹์ง€ ์•Š์ฃ .
06:47
If I'm standing far away surrounded by defenders, that's generally a bad shot.
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06:51
But we never knew how good "good" was, or how bad "bad" was quantitatively.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ฒฐ์ฝ” ์•Œ์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜์ฃ .
์ข‹์€ ๊ฒŒ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์ข‹์€์ง€ ๋‚˜์œ ๊ฒŒ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋‚˜์œ์ง€๋ฅผ์š”.
06:56
Until now.
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ํ˜„์žฌ๊นŒ์ง€๋Š”์š”.
06:57
So what we can do, again, using spatiotemporal features,
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ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋‹ค์‹œ ์‹œ๊ณต๊ฐ„์ ์ธ ํŠน์ง•์„ ์ด์šฉํ•ด์„œ
07:00
we looked at every shot.
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์Š›์„ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์—์„œ ๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:02
We can see: Where is the shot? What's the angle to the basket?
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์Š›์„ ์–ด๋””์„œ ํ–ˆ๊ณ  ๊ณจ๋Œ€๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ฐ๋„๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ค์ง€ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
07:05
Where are the defenders standing? What are their distances?
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์ˆ˜๋น„์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋”” ์„œ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€? ๊ทธ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์–ผ๋งˆ์ธ์ง€?
๊ทธ๋“ค๊ณผ์˜ ๊ฐ๋„๋Š” ์–ผ๋งˆ์ธ์ง€?
07:08
What are their angles?
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07:09
For multiple defenders, we can look at how the player's moving
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๋‹ค์ˆ˜์˜ ์ˆ˜๋น„์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์›€์ง์ด๋Š”์ง€ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
07:12
and predict the shot type.
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์Š› ํƒ€์ž…๋„ ์˜ˆ์ƒํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ณ ์š”.
07:13
We can look at all their velocities and we can build a model that predicts
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๊ณต์˜ ์†๋„๋ฅผ ๋ณด๊ณ  ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
07:17
what is the likelihood that this shot would go in under these circumstances?
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์ด ์Š›์ด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ ๋‚˜์˜ฌ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋ ๊นŒ?
07:22
So why is this important?
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์ด๊ฒŒ ์™œ ์ค‘์š”ํ• ๊นŒ์š”?
07:24
We can take something that was shooting,
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์Š›์„ ํ•ด์„ํ•  ๋•Œ
07:26
which was one thing before, and turn it into two things:
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์ „์—๋Š” ํ•˜๋‚˜๋กœ ๋ณด์•˜๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋‘˜๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์–ด ํ•ด์„ํ•˜์ฃ .
07:29
the quality of the shot and the quality of the shooter.
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์Š›์˜ ์œ ํšจ์œจ๊ณผ ์Šˆํ„ฐ์˜ ์ž์งˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:33
So here's a bubble chart, because what's TED without a bubble chart?
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๋ฒ„๋ธ”์ฐจํŠธ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๊ฑฐ ์—†์ด๋Š” ํ…Œ๋“œ ๊ฐ•์—ฐ์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์ฃ .
07:36
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
07:38
Those are NBA players.
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NBA ์„ ์ˆ˜๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:39
The size is the size of the player and the color is the position.
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ํฌ๊ธฐ๋Š” ์„ ์ˆ˜๋“ค์˜ ์ฒด๊ฒฉ์ด๊ณ  ์ƒ‰์€ ์„ ์ˆ˜๋“ค์˜ ํฌ์ง€์…˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:42
On the x-axis, we have the shot probability.
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X์ถ•์—๋Š” ์Š›์„ฑ๊ณต๋ฅ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:44
People on the left take difficult shots,
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์™ผ์ชฝ์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์„ ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์Š›์„ ์„ฑ๊ณตํ•˜๊ธฐ ํž˜๋“ค์ฃ .
07:46
on the right, they take easy shots.
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์˜ค๋ฅธ์ชฝ์—๋Š” ์žˆ๋Š” ์„ ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์Š›์„ ์„ฑ๊ณตํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‰ฝ์ฃ .
07:49
On the [y-axis] is their shooting ability.
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Y์ถ•์€ ์Š›์„ ์  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:51
People who are good are at the top, bad at the bottom.
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์œ„์—๋Š” ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ด ์ข‹์€ ์„ ์ˆ˜, ์•„๋ž˜๋Š” ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ด ๋‚˜์œ ์„ ์ˆ˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:53
So for example, if there was a player
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค๋ฉด, ๋Œ€์ฒด๋กœ ์Š›์˜ 47%๋ฅผ ๋„ฃ๋Š” ์„ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
07:55
who generally made 47 percent of their shots,
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07:57
that's all you knew before.
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๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์•„๋Š” ์ „๋ถ€์ฃ .
07:59
But today, I can tell you that player takes shots that an average NBA player
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์˜ค๋Š˜ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ NBA ํ‰๊ท  ์„ ์ˆ˜๋“ค์ด
08:04
would make 49 percent of the time,
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๊ทธ ๋‹น์‹œ ์Š›์„ฑ๊ณต๋ฅ ์€ 49%์ด๊ณ 
08:06
and they are two percent worse.
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์Š› ์˜๋Š” ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์€ -2%๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
08:08
And the reason that's important is that there are lots of 47s out there.
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์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€ 47%์ธ ์„ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
08:13
And so it's really important to know
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์•Œ์•„์•ผ ํ•  ์ •๋ง ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€
08:16
if the 47 that you're considering giving 100 million dollars to
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1์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ์ฃผ๊ธฐ๋กœ ํ•œ 47%์˜ ์„ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€
08:20
is a good shooter who takes bad shots
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์ข‹์€ ์Šˆํ„ฐ์ง€๋งŒ ์Š›์„ ์ž˜ ๋ชป ๋˜์ง€๋Š”์ง€
08:23
or a bad shooter who takes good shots.
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๋‚˜์œ ์Šˆํ„ฐ์ง€๋งŒ ์Š›์„ ์ž˜ ๋˜์ง€๋Š”์ง€ ์•„๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
08:27
Machine understanding doesn't just change how we look at players,
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๊ธฐ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์ดํ•ดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์„ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ๋ณ€ํ™”์‹œํ‚ค์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
08:30
it changes how we look at the game.
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๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ณด๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ๋ณ€ํ™”์‹œํ‚ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:32
So there was this very exciting game a couple of years ago, in the NBA finals.
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฅ๋ฏธ์ง„์ง„ํ–ˆ๋˜ ๋ช‡ ๋…„ ์ „ NBA ๊ฒฐ์Šน ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์—์„œ
๋งˆ์ด์• ๋ฏธ๋Š” 3์ ์„ ๋’ค์ง€๊ณ  20์ดˆ๊ฐ€ ๋‚จ์•˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:36
Miami was down by three, there was 20 seconds left.
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08:39
They were about to lose the championship.
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์šฐ์Šน์„ ๋†“์น˜๊ธฐ ์ผ๋ณด ์ง์ „์ด์—ˆ์ฃ .
08:41
A gentleman named LeBron James came up and he took a three to tie.
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๋ฅด๋ธŒ๋ก  ์ œ์ž„์Šค ์„ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ 3์ ์Š›์„ ์ด ๋™์ ์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค๋ ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์œผ๋‚˜
08:44
He missed.
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์‹คํŒจํ–ˆ์ฃ .
๋™๋ฃŒ์„ ์ˆ˜ ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ๋ณด์‰ฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฆฌ๋ฐ”์šด๋“œ๋ฅผ ์žก์•˜๊ณ 
08:46
His teammate Chris Bosh got a rebound,
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08:47
passed it to another teammate named Ray Allen.
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๊ณต์„ ๋™๋ฃŒ์„ ์ˆ˜ ๋ ˆ์ด ์•Œ๋ Œ์—๊ฒŒ ํŒจ์Šคํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
3์ ์„ ์„ฑ๊ณตํ–ˆ๊ณ  ์—ฐ์žฅ์ „์œผ๋กœ ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ”์ฃ .
08:50
He sank a three. It went into overtime.
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๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์— ์ด๊ฒผ๊ณ  ์ฑ”ํ”ผ์–ธ์‹ญ์—์„œ ์šฐ์Šนํ–ˆ์ฃ .
08:52
They won the game. They won the championship.
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฅ๋ฏธ์ง„์ง„ํ–ˆ๋˜ ๋†๊ตฌ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:54
It was one of the most exciting games in basketball.
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08:57
And our ability to know the shot probability for every player
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๋งค ์ˆœ๊ฐ„ ๋ชจ๋“  ์„ ์ˆ˜์˜ ์Š›์„ฑ๊ณต๋ฅ ๊ณผ
09:00
at every second,
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๋งค ์ˆœ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ฐ”์šด๋“œ๋ฅผ ๋”ฐ๋‚ผ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜๋Š” ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„
09:02
and the likelihood of them getting a rebound at every second
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์ „์—๋Š” ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ–ˆ๋˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ์ฃ .
09:05
can illuminate this moment in a way that we never could before.
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09:09
Now unfortunately, I can't show you that video.
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ํ˜„์žฌ, ์•ˆํƒ€๊น๊ฒŒ๋„ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์—๊ฒŒ ๊ทธ ๋น„๋””์˜ค๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค„ ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋„ค์š”.
09:12
But for you, we recreated that moment
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ทธ ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์„ ์žฌํ˜„ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:16
at our weekly basketball game about 3 weeks ago.
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3์ฃผ ์ „ ์ฃผ๋ง ๋†๊ตฌ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์—์„œ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
09:19
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
09:21
And we recreated the tracking that led to the insights.
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์ง๊ด€์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์žฌํ˜„ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
09:25
So, here is us. This is Chinatown in Los Angeles,
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์ด๊ณณ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋กœ์Šค์•ค์ ค๋ ˆ์Šค ์ฐจ์ด๋‚˜ํƒ€์šด์ด์ฃ .
09:29
a park we play at every week,
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๋งค์ฃผ ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ณต์›์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:31
and that's us recreating the Ray Allen moment
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๋ ˆ์ด ์•Œ๋ Œ์ด ํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ดํ–ˆ๋˜ ์ˆœ๊ฐ„๊ณผ
09:33
and all the tracking that's associated with it.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จ๋œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์„ ์žฌํ˜„ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:36
So, here's the shot.
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์Š›์žฅ๋ฉด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:38
I'm going to show you that moment
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๊ทธ ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์„ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์—๊ฒŒ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:40
and all the insights of that moment.
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๊ทธ ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ง๊ด€๊นŒ์ง€์š”.
09:43
The only difference is, instead of the professional players, it's us,
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์ฐจ์ด์ ์ด๋ผ๊ณค ์ „๋ฌธ ์„ ์ˆ˜๋“ค์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์ œ ๋™๋ฃŒ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
09:47
and instead of a professional announcer, it's me.
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์ „๋ฌธ์ ์ธ ์•„๋‚˜์šด์„œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
09:49
So, bear with me.
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์ž ์‹œ ์ฐธ์•„์ฃผ์„ธ์š”.
09:53
Miami.
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๋งˆ์ด์• ๋ฏธ
09:54
Down three.
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3์ ์ด ์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ
09:56
Twenty seconds left.
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20์ดˆ๊ฐ€ ๋‚จ์•˜๋„ค์š”.
09:59
Jeff brings up the ball.
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์ œํ”„๊ฐ€ ๊ณต์„ ๋ชฐ๊ณ  ์˜ค๋„ค์š”.
10:02
Josh catches, puts up a three!
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์กฐ์‰ฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ›์•„ 3์  ์Š›!
10:04
[Calculating shot probability]
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[์Š› ์„ฑ๊ณต๋ฅ  ๊ณ„์‚ฐ ์ค‘]
10:07
[Shot quality]
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[์Š›์˜ ์œ ํšจ์œจ]
10:09
[Rebound probability]
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[๋ฆฌ๋ฐ”์šด๋“œ ์„ฑ๊ณต๋ฅ ]
10:12
Won't go!
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์žก์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ๋„ค์š”.
10:13
[Rebound probability]
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[๋ฆฌ๋ฐ”์šด๋“œ ์„ฑ๊ณต๋ฅ ]
10:15
Rebound, Noel.
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๋…ธ์—˜์ด ๋ฆฌ๋ฐ”์šด๋“œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:17
Back to Daria.
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๋‹ค๋ฆฌ์•„์—๊ฒŒ ํŒจ์Šค
10:18
[Shot quality]
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[์Š›์˜ ์œ ํšจ์œจ]
10:22
Her three-pointer -- bang!
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3์  ์Š›, ๊ณจ!
10:24
Tie game with five seconds left.
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5์ดˆ๋ฅผ ๋‚จ๊ธด ์ƒํ™ฉ
10:26
The crowd goes wild.
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๊ด€์ค‘์ด ํฅ๋ถ„ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:28
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
10:30
That's roughly how it happened.
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๋Œ€์ถฉ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์‹์œผ๋กœ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜์ฃ .
10:31
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
10:32
Roughly.
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๋Œ€์ถฉ์ด์š”.
10:34
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
10:36
That moment had about a nine percent chance of happening in the NBA
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์€ NBA์—์„œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚  ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด ์•ฝ 9%๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜์ฃ .
10:41
and we know that and a great many other things.
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์•„์‹œ๋‹ค์‹œํ”ผ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค๋„ ๋งค์šฐ ๋งŽ์ฃ .
10:43
I'm not going to tell you how many times it took us to make that happen.
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์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋งŽ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š”์ง€ ๋งํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:47
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
10:49
Okay, I will! It was four.
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์ข‹์•„์š”. ๋งํ•ด์ค„๊ฒŒ์š”. ๋„ค ๋ฒˆ ์ •๋„์ฃ .
10:51
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
10:52
Way to go, Daria.
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์ž˜ํ–ˆ์–ด. ๋‹ค๋ฆฌ์•„
10:53
But the important thing about that video
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ ๋น„๋””์˜ค์—์„œ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ
10:57
and the insights we have for every second of every NBA game -- it's not that.
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๋ชจ๋“  NBA๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์˜ ๋งค ์ดˆ๋งˆ๋‹ค ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•œ ์ง๊ด€์€ ๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ์ฃ .
11:02
It's the fact you don't have to be a professional team to track movement.
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ์›€์ง์ž„์„ ์ถ”์ ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ „๋ฌธ์ ์ธ ํŒ€์ผ ํ•„์š”๋Š” ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:07
You do not have to be a professional player to get insights about movement.
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์›€์ง์ž„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์•ˆ๋ชฉ์„ ํ‚ค์šฐ๋ ค๊ณ  ์ „๋ฌธ์ ์ธ ์„ ์ˆ˜์ผ ํ•„์š”๋Š” ์—†์ฃ .
11:10
In fact, it doesn't even have to be about sports because we're moving everywhere.
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ๊ตณ์ด ์Šคํฌ์ธ ์ผ ํ•„์š”๋Š” ์—†์ฃ . ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์ˆœ๊ฐ„ ์›€์ง์ด๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
11:15
We're moving in our homes,
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์ง‘์— ๊ฐ€๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
11:21
in our offices,
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ํšŒ์‚ฌ์— ๊ฐ€๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
11:24
as we shop and we travel
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์‡ผํ•‘์„ ํ•˜๊ณ 
์—ฌํ–‰ํ•˜์ฃ .
11:29
throughout our cities
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๋„์‹œ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์ €๊ธฐ๋ฅผ
11:32
and around our world.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ
11:35
What will we know? What will we learn?
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฌด์—‡์„ ์•Œ๊ณ  ๋ฐฐ์› ์„๊นŒ์š”?
11:37
Perhaps, instead of identifying pick-and-rolls,
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์•„๋งˆ ํ”ฝ์•ค๋กค์„ ๊ฐ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋Œ€์‹ 
11:39
a machine can identify the moment and let me know
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๋”ธ์˜ ์ฒซ๋ฐœ์„ ๋‚ด๋”›๋Š” ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์„ ๊ฐ์ง€ํ•ด ์•Œ๋ ค์ค„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:42
when my daughter takes her first steps.
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11:45
Which could literally be happening any second now.
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๋ง ๊ทธ๋Œ€๋กœ ํ˜„์žฌ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์„ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
11:48
Perhaps we can learn to better use our buildings, better plan our cities.
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์•„๋งˆ ๊ฑด๋ฌผ์„ ๋” ์ž˜ ์ด์šฉํ•˜๊ณ 
๋„์‹œ ์„ค๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋” ์ž˜ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:52
I believe that with the development of the science of moving dots,
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์›€์ง์ด๋Š” ์ ์˜ ๊ณผํ•™ ๋ฐœ์ „์„ ํ†ตํ•ด
11:56
we will move better, we will move smarter, we will move forward.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋” ์ข‹์€ ์ชฝ์œผ๋กœ ๋” ์˜๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ, ์•ž์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜์•„๊ฐˆ ๊ฑฐ๋ผ ๋ฏฟ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
12:00
Thank you very much.
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๋Œ€๋‹จํžˆ ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:01
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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