Harris vs. Trump — and What’s at Stake for the World | TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer

391,415 views ・ 2024-10-11

TED


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00:04
Helen Walters: Hello, everybody.
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It's lovely to be here with you today.
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I am Helen Walters, I am the head of media and curation at TED,
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and I am thrilled to be your host
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for this episode of TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer.
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Ian, of course, is not only the president and founder
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of the geopolitical risk advisory firm Eurasia Group,
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he is also a scion of the media industry.
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He is the head of GZERO Media.
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And today, I wanted to say hi to all of the TED members
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who are here watching this,
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and thank you for sending in your questions.
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We are going to get right to them.
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Hi, Ian.
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Ian Bremmer: Hi, good to see you.
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HW: OK, so we are here to talk about the US election,
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a giant moment not just for America but also for the entire world.
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On the docket, we have former President Donald Trump
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and Vice President Kamala Harris.
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Today is October 10,
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people have already started to vote.
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But as we count down to the official election day of November 5,
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what do you think, what thoughts are people taking
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into the ballot box with them?
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IB: I think the most important thought, and this is a global conversation,
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it’s a global audience that’s dialed in to us today.
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We’ve had a lot of elections happening this year,
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and most of them have been change elections.
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They are a backdrop of people that are not particularly happy
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with where they believe their country is going.
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And that has led to a lot of voting against incumbents
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who traditionally have some advantages.
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Doesn't mean all the incumbents have been voted out,
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but they've all had a tough time.
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And that is as true in countries with enormously popular leaders
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like Modi, for example, in India,
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as it is in countries that have had leaders
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that have faced real difficulties, like Macron in France.
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You’ve seen in South Africa, Ramaphosa and the ANC.
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A number of conservative PMs seeing the end of their rule
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in the UK with Labour.
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That's the backdrop.
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And this backdrop comes in part because inflation is really high
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on the back of the pandemic,
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and people are upset about their economic prospects.
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Also, because migration is high,
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in part on the back of the pandemic,
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when people weren’t moving and suddenly they could.
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And also, in part, broader structural trends around the world,
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bigger gaps between rich and poor,
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climate challenges, geopolitical challenges and war.
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All of those things, repressive regimes,
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have led to environments
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where people that are going to the ballot box
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are not happy with who they’re voting for.
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And the United States is no exception.
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The difference in the US, I would say a couple of big ones.
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One is that the disinformation environment
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and the political division
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and dysfunction around that division is much higher today
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than it has been in any of the other advanced industrial democracies.
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And secondly,
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the visceral unpopularity among opponents
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of these candidates is much higher
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than we have seen either in these other countries or historically
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in recent times in the United States.
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Which means not only is this a very, very close election,
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and I don't have a strong view at this point,
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even one month out, of who’s going to win.
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It’s going to be determined by a small number of voters
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in a small number of districts in a small number of swing states,
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you've all seen that,
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I have nothing more to tell you than what you've seen
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from all the pollsters and all the media on that.
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But also that so many Americans are not prepared to accept the outcome.
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So many Americans are prepared to see that this is rigged.
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And let's also remember, we've just gotten through,
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and no one asked me about this in the past few weeks,
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but it's important,
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we've just had two assassination attempts, quite serious ones,
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one that was very close from succeeding, against former President Trump.
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In case people were worried, you know,
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not thinking about just how serious the passions, the tensions,
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the conflict is as the backdrop for this election.
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The stakes are very serious indeed.
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HW: All right, let's dive headlong into your world.
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Let's talk foreign policy.
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What do you see as the major differences between the candidates
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and their worldview,
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and what might be the difference
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in how they approach international relations
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if they're elected?
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IB: Well, one, I mean, this might be a boring way to start,
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but it's important,
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is the way that they will govern will be very different.
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Very different from Biden and very different from each other.
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Biden is and has been the most experienced foreign policy hand
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we've had as a president in decades.
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He was vice president, of course, and served that completely.
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Before that, he had served in the Senate for his entire career,
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including running the Foreign Relations Committee.
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So when you see Biden, or back before his age really started to show,
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when you have seen Biden on stages globally,
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you see him meeting with leaders that he has known personally,
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he has had long relationships with for a very long time.
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That is also true of his inner circle in the White House.
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These are people that have worked with Biden for decades,
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that he knows, that he trusts.
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And therefore, Biden's foreign policy decision-making style
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is made in the White House, right?
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And they make decisions,
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the president makes a surprising number of those decisions himself,
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and then they expect the cabinet to execute on those decisions,
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implement on them.
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That's very different than what we would see
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under Kamala Harris.
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She's had a lot of foreign policy exposure from being vice president,
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made a lot of trips, met with a lot of leaders,
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that’s very useful, for four years.
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That's very different from a lot of direct foreign policy making experience
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as a principal.
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That she has not had.
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And she would rely on a much more traditional cabinet.
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So how a Harris foreign policy manifests
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would have much more to do with the people she decides to appoint
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in state as NSA, in defense, in treasury, in commerce,
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than it has for the Biden administration.
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And they'll have regular cabinet meetings, which Biden has not been doing.
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And when they do, and they have differences that need to be hashed out,
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they'll be hashed out in front of her,
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and she'll play a very active role in steering that conversation.
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But it's very different from Biden.
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Where for a Trump administration,
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there would be a small number of high-level issues
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that he will make decisions on
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in a untransparent and frequently instinctive way.
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And he won't take a lot of advice from other people
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around those decisions.
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And then there'll be a whole other host of policy-making decisions
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that he will not be interested in almost at all.
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And those will be decisions that will be made by others
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that happen to be trusted around him
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and afforded the responsibility for those issues,
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which might be the cabinet secretaries,
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but might also be informal people
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that are in or around the White House.
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For example, as Jared Kushner ended up with the Middle East portfolio
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last time around.
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So, I mean, I know you want to ask me about policy,
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but I don't want to sleep on the fact
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that a lot of the way policy gets implemented
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in a really big organization like the US government
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depends on what kind of leadership and structure you have.
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And these would be two very, very different structures.
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HW: That's really interesting.
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I think that the question of personnel,
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the question of who's in those inner circles does really matter.
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What is your sense of who's going to be surrounding the president
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in the next four years?
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IB: Well, I want to say, one, that for Trump,
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those decisions are almost always made at the last minute.
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And Trump responds a lot to recency.
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The person that he just met that just impressed him,
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that looked like, sounded like the person that should be in that role.
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Even if he has never met that person before,
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he'll be very excited and say,
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"I want that person in that job."
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Look at the way Rex Tillerson became secretary of state.
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I mean, didn't know Trump from Adam
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and came out of that meeting,
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“Well, I’m going to guess I get the job.”
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And that could have been Jim Stavridis,
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that could have been Dave Petraeus.
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They would have been very different.
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So definitely, the fact
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that Trump has been president for four years
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means that there is a constellation of people around him
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that have worked with him, that are trusted,
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that he will go back to.
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I think Robert O'Brien,
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who had been national security advisor,
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will certainly play a senior role again in a Trump administration.
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I think that certainly Robert Lighthizer,
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who was US trade rep,
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will probably be running trade in some form, in some position.
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He'd like to be secretary of treasury.
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I don't think he's going to get that job, but he'll do something.
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But there'll also be a bunch of people that, you know,
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will be complete surprises, even shocks to the system.
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And I can tell you, like, you know, people that look good right now,
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Tom Cotton, the senator, certainly looks like he's, you know,
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got a very good chance of either running Defense or CIA.
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Pompeo always throws himself in the mix,
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though he didn't endorse Trump until very late,
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and it's not clear whether he'd get a nod or not.
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There’s always a question of what Jared and/or Ivanka might do,
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even though they've said they don't want to be around this time around.
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Trump keeps going back to them every time he sees them and says,
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"Of course you're saying that, but you're going to be in,
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and I want you in."
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And you'll see what that means.
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So I think there's an enormous amount of uncertainty.
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Now for Kamala Harris,
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she has told the people that want the positions around her
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that, you know, definitely her staff is collecting all that information.
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She is not prepared to start that decision-making process
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until after an election, assuming she wins.
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So still very early in that process, too.
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But you have a lot of people around Kamala, certainly,
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that you would expect to have significant positions.
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In my world,
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her lead foreign policy advisor has been Phil Gordon,
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serving in the National Security Council in the White House.
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Very capable.
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I would expect he'd have a good shot at being national security advisor,
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assuming he wants that job.
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I think for secretary of state Bill Burns, a lot of people say he’s older,
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he's in his mid 70s,
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but he’s done a very solid job not only running the CIA
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but also running point on the Middle East.
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If he wanted the job at state,
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I think he'd have a very good shot at it.
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I think my good friend Chris Coons, the senator from Delaware,
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who's been a lead foreign policy voice in the Senate,
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probably the most capable on Senate co-chair of the campaign,
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would certainly be in the running for that post.
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I could see others.
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Susan Rice, former national security advisor,
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I think is certainly interested in it.
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So a lot of people
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that I think you would consider to be fairly center to center-left,
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fairly establishment-type figures
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in key foreign policy
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and economic related roles.
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I don't think there'd be a huge shift from Biden to that group.
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I'm not expecting the Biden people would stay.
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But in terms of their orientation towards the world,
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I don't think it would be dramatically different.
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HW: I mean, whatever happens,
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foreign policy is going to be front and center
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for whoever is in those positions.
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We are all watching what's happening in the Middle East,
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what's unfolding there,
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with increasing horror as Lebanon has been drawn in,
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increasingly Iran is connected.
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What changes do you see in the Middle East come January 25?
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IB: Well, let's first talk about the changes we're seeing
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before January 25,
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because this war, you and I, Helen,
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have talked about it a few times since October 7,
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and it continues to change pretty dramatically
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on almost a daily basis.
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One of the biggest things that changed is, of course,
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you're right that the war has escalated.
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It's escalated on several different occasions since October 7.
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But in addition to the fact that the war has escalated, you know,
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in Gaza to a ground invasion,
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now into the northern front,
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into Lebanon with Hezbollah
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and of course more broadly across the Middle East
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with the so-called axis of resistance led by Iran.
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And even with shots fired between the Iranians and Israel now
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on a couple of occasions.
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The fact is that some of the organizations that have been involved in this war
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are no longer experiencing the capacity to escalate.
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So, I mean, Hamas,
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you may have seen that Sinwar,
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who is running Hamas on the ground,
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has just recently, in the last 24 hours,
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announced that they're going to start suicide bombings again,
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which they had said that they weren't going to use as operational policy.
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The reason they're announcing that
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is because they can't do much of anything else.
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Their tunnels have been sealed,
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their weapons caches have been destroyed.
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Their leadership has been obliterated.
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I mean, they just don't have the ability to mount a credible,
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organized fighting force.
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And so it's definitely still a threat.
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Because, you know, suicide bombers are not to be slept on.
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But it is nowhere near the threat it was on October 7.
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Hezbollah has now said that they would like a cease fire with Israel,
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and they're not linking it to ending the fighting in Gaza anymore.
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That was utterly fundamental to what they were saying
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for the last entire year.
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They started launching rockets at Israel on October 8,
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the day after October 7.
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14:20
And they said they're not going to stop until Israel stops bombing Gaza.
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Well, what changed?
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What changed is that Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah,
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was assassinated.
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14:31
His entire leadership team has been systematically assassinated.
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14:35
Thousands and thousands of their fighters have been killed and maimed,
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14:40
and their war-fighting capability
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and their communications capability is being systematically torn apart.
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So Israel's military asymmetries
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have stopped their enemies from being capable of escalating
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with the potential untested exception of Iran.
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15:03
And the big debate right now, of course,
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is how will the Israelis respond to the Iranian attacks,
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the 180 ballistic missiles,
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15:12
and what might the Iranians do in response?
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15:17
I think the concerns of escalation here
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are overwhelmingly about the Israeli decision-making process,
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15:24
because the Iranians actually understand that they, too,
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15:28
are quickly running out of ways to effectively escalate
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against a far, far stronger Israel
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with a completely committed ally of the United States.
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15:41
So that's where we have been, that's where we are now.
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I'm happy to move to,
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you know, who would do what and what to expect going forward,
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if you like, Helen, but please, frame it as you wish.
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HW: I think the question
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that a lot of members actually have sent in before we convened here,
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and I think a question on a lot of people's minds
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is what influence --
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you talk about the Israeli decision-making process.
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16:04
What influence can either candidate actually have
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16:07
on that decision-making process,
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16:09
and how does either candidate actually have a hope
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of making any kind of difference in what actually is transpiring
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over in the Middle East?
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16:16
I think that's the framing.
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IB: Well, let's first of all recognize
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that even if the United States wanted to have a lot of influence
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16:24
and was prepared to use leverage to get it,
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16:27
which President Biden has not been willing to do,
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16:30
but even if they were,
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16:33
that does not mean that the Israelis,
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16:35
and this Israeli government in particular,
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16:38
would be falling in lockstep behind the United States's preferences.
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16:44
I mean, in Ukraine, you have a country
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16:46
that is much more reliant on American largesse to continue fighting
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16:51
than the Israelis are,
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16:52
and at the end of the day,
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the Ukrainians have taken a number of decisions in this war,
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16:58
in their war,
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16:59
that the Americans weren't aware of
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17:01
and would not have supported, right?
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17:03
I mean, for example, the sending of 40,000 troops into Russia, into Kursk.
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17:07
The US didn't know that
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17:09
and certainly didn't think it was a good idea afterwards.
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17:12
Taiwan is much more reliant on the United States
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17:15
for its continued ability to survive in some sovereign fashion,
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17:21
governing its own territory.
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17:23
And yet we see frequently decisions by the Taiwanese government
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17:27
statements they make
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17:28
that are clearly seen as escalatory by Beijing,
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17:31
that the Americans would not want them to make.
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17:33
So I think that American influence over allies
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17:39
is frequently overstated.
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17:42
I think we should start with that.
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17:44
But it is clear that however much influence
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17:48
the Americans might have on Israel,
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17:52
President Biden has been unwilling to test that theory.
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He's been unwilling to potentially mete out any consequences
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18:01
to the Israeli government whatsoever
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18:04
if they choose to ignore American private warnings,
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18:10
which have been repeated and fairly sharp,
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3834
18:13
and public concerns, which have been aired more infrequently
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18:17
and much more softly.
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18:19
If the United States was prepared to take off the table,
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18:23
off the table,
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18:24
the military support that they provide Israel,
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3166
18:27
or at least the offensive military support,
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18:30
continue to provide the ability
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18:31
for Israel to defend itself against attacks from its enemies
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18:35
around the region,
367
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18:37
something that, you know,
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18:38
Macron, for example, is now talking about, the French president,
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3367
18:41
something that the UK has flirted with
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18:44
with the new Keir Starmer administration.
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18:48
I think you would probably see at the margins
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18:51
more willingness of the Israelis to consult with the Americans
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18:56
as they're making decisions about, for example,
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18:59
how far to go into Lebanon.
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19:01
I think there would be more decision-making that was made,
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19:04
at least with the Americans in awareness of it in advance.
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19:07
I'm not sure it would have changed the way the Israelis are pursuing
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19:11
and fighting the war.
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1234
19:13
In part because it is so overwhelmingly popular in Israel,
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4000
19:17
because the Israelis don't support a two-state solution anymore,
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3033
19:20
because the Israelis want to do everything possible to get their hostages out
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19:24
and to get their 60,000 civilians back into the north.
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19:27
And that means, you know,
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19:28
fighting Hamas to the last leader and fighter that they can
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19:33
and destroying Hezbollah as well.
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19:35
So I'm not sure that the United States would have much effect on Israel.
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19:41
But there's another question, which is,
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1933
19:43
would the United States have more support from other countries around the world?
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3967
19:47
The US has lost a lot of influence with the global South,
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3333
19:51
particularly Southeast Asia, for example, Indonesia, Malaysia, even Singapore,
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4400
19:55
because they are perceived as complicit
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19:58
in the Israeli strikes into Gaza
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3300
20:02
and the lack of humanitarian assistance getting in for the people of Gaza.
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5133
20:07
I think a policy by the US,
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2433
20:09
which was more aligned with allies in Europe and the Gulf,
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4933
20:14
would be more broadly supported by other countries
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3500
20:18
that have gone sour on the US
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3234
20:21
as a consequence of that.
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20:23
And here there's a big difference between Harris and Trump.
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20:28
Harris would certainly want to be seen as the president
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6300
20:35
of the most important ally of Israel in the world.
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3567
20:38
I don't think she would change that at all.
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2467
20:41
But I also think she would do a lot more
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2567
20:43
to help ensure that the Palestinians got regular humanitarian aid in,
405
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5567
20:49
as opposed to the roughly 10 percent of what they had
406
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2500
20:51
at pre-October 7 right now.
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2333
20:54
I think she'd push harder on that directly and publicly with Israel.
408
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4334
20:58
I think she'd be working more closely with the United Nations.
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3000
21:01
And I also think she'd be working more closely,
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2200
21:04
multilaterally with American allies.
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2934
21:07
I think that Trump, on the other hand,
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1833
21:09
has already made clear he does not support a two-state solution anymore.
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3800
21:12
He did when he was president the first time around.
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2400
21:15
In fact, that was behind the Bahrain conference
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2267
21:17
and behind the Abraham Accords,
416
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2900
21:20
was a nominal map,
417
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1667
21:22
a road map for a two-state solution
418
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2567
21:24
with what that would look like in the West Bank in particular.
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3033
21:28
He has also said that he would support
420
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2433
21:30
Israel directly striking Iran's nuclear facilities.
421
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3967
21:34
Jared Kushner has circulated
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21:37
what he thinks is a unique opportunity for Israel
423
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21:40
to take care of, as he describes it,
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2334
21:43
the Iranian problem.
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2133
21:45
There's no question in my mind
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1500
21:46
that Kamala Harris would not support that.
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2033
21:48
So frankly,
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1433
21:50
I think that Harris and Trump differ
429
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3734
21:54
perhaps the most on the Middle East,
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3533
21:57
specifically on Israel-Palestine,
431
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3067
22:00
than they do on any other major foreign policy issue out there.
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5634
22:06
And I think that that is likely to manifest after January.
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4800
22:11
HW: So that's interesting, because the next question
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22:14
that I wanted to ask you about was Ukraine and Russia.
435
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3534
22:18
And we're reading right now about Bob Woodward's reporting
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2933
22:20
on maybe giving COVID tests to Putin
437
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3100
22:24
or calling Putin when he hasn't been in office,
438
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2800
22:26
claims which Trump denies.
439
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2100
22:29
But I think it's clear to outsiders, at least,
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3633
22:32
that it seems like the approach to Russia would be pretty different
441
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4633
22:37
between the two candidates.
442
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1634
22:39
But what do you think would change in the US's dealings with Russia
443
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4000
22:43
when either one of them is elected?
444
1363034
1900
22:44
IB: So the Trump team has denied that they've had those phone calls.
445
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4400
22:49
We don't have any evidence of them from Woodward, so we don't know yet.
446
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4533
22:53
The Putin and the Kremlin has confirmed the COVID tests.
447
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4300
22:58
The COVID tests are interesting --
448
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1900
23:00
the COVID vaccines, excuse me.
449
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2466
23:03
And I think that's --
450
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3300
23:06
excuse me, am I right, was it tests or vaccines?
451
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2400
23:09
I've seen both actually.
452
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1200
23:10
HW: Actually I think it was tests.
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1667
23:12
IB: Was it tests?
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1167
23:13
So to me that's interesting because it's not like Trump --
455
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5434
23:18
I mean Trump talked a good game with Putin.
456
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3333
23:22
And you remember the Helsinki summit in particular
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2900
23:25
where it seemed like, you know,
458
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1500
23:26
he was trying to make nice-nice with Putin as his best buddy
459
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5067
23:31
as opposed to the ways he's been much tougher
460
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2434
23:34
with some US allies in NATO.
461
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2167
23:36
But the reality of US policy under Trump was not that.
462
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6133
23:42
The reality is that the Javelin missiles,
463
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2966
23:45
anti-tank missiles that Biden refused to provide to Ukraine,
464
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5034
23:50
were provided in the Trump administration.
465
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2100
23:52
The reality is that a series of high-level sanctions against Russia
466
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4333
23:57
were actually tightened
467
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1900
23:58
and toughened up under Trump,
468
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2800
24:01
that were not under Obama.
469
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1267
24:03
And also Trump was pushing much stronger against the Germans
470
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4800
24:07
on the Nord Stream pipeline
471
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1834
24:09
and aligning their energy security to Russia,
472
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3200
24:12
which Obama didn't care very much about.
473
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4600
24:18
So that is you know,
474
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3966
24:22
it's a little counter to what the narrative
475
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3200
24:25
in the media actually discusses around Trump.
476
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3333
24:30
And providing machines that do COVID testing,
477
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4700
24:35
you know, in an environment
478
1475367
1567
24:36
where you have a really bad relationship with someone,
479
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2734
24:39
but you know you need to communicate with them
480
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2433
24:42
and you are prepared to work with them in areas
481
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24:45
that are not hurting your national security.
482
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2800
24:47
That actually strikes me as a fairly sensible thing to do
483
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4100
24:52
and reflects leadership.
484
1492067
1567
24:54
So I would not be critical of that.
485
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2533
24:56
If we find out that it is indeed true
486
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2666
24:59
that Trump has been in regular contact with Putin
487
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2366
25:01
since leaving the presidency,
488
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1666
25:03
while refusing to talk to Zelenskyy
489
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1966
25:05
until Zelenskyy begged for a meeting at the UN
490
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3500
25:08
and didn't want to take it and finally did,
491
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3200
25:12
that would be, I think, an issue of significant concern,
492
1512167
4167
25:16
and we would want information if we could get it
493
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2700
25:19
around what was actually in those conversations.
494
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4867
25:24
But I think that if Trump were to become president now,
495
1524267
4567
25:28
you've heard from many people now
496
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3200
25:32
about how stupid it sounds
497
1532067
2434
25:34
that Trump is going to end the war in a day.
498
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2500
25:37
And, you know, I think you and I can agree, Helen,
499
1537034
2667
25:39
that Trump is occasionally prone to, you know, slightly exaggerating things.
500
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5233
25:45
And that might be true with the 24 hours.
501
1545667
3000
25:48
It might take 36 hours, for example,
502
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2166
25:50
for him to come to peace between Russia and Ukraine,
503
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2700
25:53
maybe even 48.
504
1553634
1167
25:54
I mean, if he had to golf in between.
505
1554834
2133
25:57
But I mean, more seriously, he wants to end the war.
506
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5766
26:03
One of the things that he considers to be a feature of his administration
507
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6400
26:09
is new wars did not start under his administration.
508
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3300
26:13
He was very loath to use force, even against the Iranians
509
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3033
26:16
when the Emiratis, the Saudis were begging him
510
1576101
2266
26:18
and the Iranians were engaging in all sorts of strikes in the region,
511
1578367
4334
26:22
against, you know, oil facilities,
512
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4000
26:26
against ships, against American bases.
513
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2900
26:29
And he didn't do anything.
514
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1266
26:30
And then finally when he finally did,
515
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1767
26:32
he finally took a big whack and killed Qasem Soleimani.
516
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3634
26:36
And then the Iranians didn't do much at all
517
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2000
26:38
because they saw that this was not to be trifled with.
518
1598467
2667
26:41
But he was very reluctant to use military force.
519
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2600
26:44
And I think that clearly he wants to be the guy
520
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3734
26:47
that says he ended the war between Russia and Ukraine.
521
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5100
26:52
And the way he intends to do it
522
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2367
26:55
is to call Putin
523
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1667
26:57
and to call Zelenskyy and say,
524
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2167
26:59
"You've got to freeze the conflict where it is or else."
525
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3167
27:02
So what's the "or else"?
526
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1867
27:04
Well, if the Ukrainians don't accept a ceasefire
527
1624367
3000
27:07
and freezing the conflict where it is,
528
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1833
27:09
and then there'll be negotiations of some undetermined form,
529
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3400
27:12
then he would cut the Ukrainians off from any further support from the US.
530
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4033
27:16
So, in other words, that's a pretty big stick
531
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2134
27:18
if Zelenskyy doesn’t accept it.
532
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2000
27:20
And it would also divide Europe.
533
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2533
27:23
Some Europeans would support Trump,
534
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2400
27:25
certainly Hungary's Orban,
535
1645934
2033
27:28
and then there would be some very difficult decision-making
536
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2833
27:30
made by other countries that aren't on the front lines,
537
1650834
2600
27:33
like Poland, the Baltics and the Nordics,
538
1653467
2034
27:35
who would definitely oppose Trump,
539
1655501
1700
27:37
but others would have a harder time making up their mind.
540
1657234
2767
27:40
And then he'd go to the Russians and he would say,
541
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2333
27:42
"You've got to accept this ceasefire or else."
542
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3633
27:46
Or else what?
543
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1167
27:47
"Or else I'm going to put much tougher sanctions on you.
544
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2634
27:49
You're not going to grow at four percent.
545
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2033
27:52
I'm going to stop you from exporting oil to India.
546
1672001
3733
27:55
I'm going to end that deal.
547
1675767
2067
27:57
I am going to put sanctions on the banks in China
548
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3700
28:01
that are allowing you to engage in financial transactions.
549
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4100
28:05
I'm going to put sanctions on your central bank."
550
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3466
28:09
So, I mean, that would have massive costs for the world and for the Europeans.
551
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6567
28:16
Again, it would divide the Europeans from the United States,
552
1696134
2867
28:19
but it would certainly be a pretty big stick that Putin would be hit by.
553
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3533
28:22
I mean, the question, of course, is how do you game this out?
554
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3066
28:25
Like, I mean, does Zelenskyy say yes, knowing that Putin is going to say no?
555
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3966
28:29
If Zelenskyy says no, can Putin then say yes
556
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2700
28:32
and he doesn't have anything to worry about?
557
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2066
28:34
I mean, clearly, not that these guys are going to be gaming it out together,
558
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3600
28:38
but it's a serious question.
559
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1367
28:39
Now the one thing that Trump is unlikely to do,
560
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3566
28:43
he's very unlikely to call the Europeans and coordinate with them,
561
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4266
28:47
which has been the most successful part of Biden's policy.
562
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3300
28:50
The fact that it has been unlike Biden's Middle East policy,
563
1730734
3500
28:54
Biden's Russia-Ukraine policy has been a multilateral policy
564
1734267
3234
28:57
led by the US in NATO.
565
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2933
29:00
And so at every step of the way, economic sanctions,
566
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3466
29:04
freezing of Russia's assets, provision of intelligence,
567
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3800
29:07
provision of military support and training,
568
1747834
3167
29:11
all of that is being done collectively by the entire alliance,
569
1751034
4400
29:15
even the Japanese and the South Koreans,
570
1755467
1934
29:17
the Australians have been on board with all of this.
571
1757401
2966
29:20
It is highly unlikely that Trump will do that.
572
1760401
3033
29:23
Trump is much more likely to make those phone calls to the Russians
573
1763434
3200
29:26
and Ukrainians himself,
574
1766634
1367
29:28
and a lot of allies are going to find out about it
575
1768001
2400
29:30
when they're briefed by Trump's people
576
1770434
2600
29:33
or when they watch it on TV.
577
1773034
2167
29:35
And that, of course, is a much more challenging way to run policy.
578
1775234
5000
29:40
Now Harris would be very different.
579
1780267
2667
29:42
Harris would have a multilateral policy,
580
1782934
2967
29:45
not only in lockstep with the Europeans,
581
1785934
2167
29:48
but she would not be prepared to do anything with Russia
582
1788134
2667
29:50
unless the Ukrainians were on board.
583
1790801
1833
29:52
So it's a very different approach.
584
1792667
2334
29:55
Again, the structural approach, not the intention of the policy,
585
1795034
3033
29:58
the structural approach would be very, very different.
586
1798101
2566
30:00
The intention of the policy would be to end the war.
587
1800701
2866
30:03
And end the war,
588
1803601
1466
30:05
even accepting that the Ukrainians are not going to get all their land back.
589
1805101
4100
30:09
Now I think that the orientation that Harris has on all of this,
590
1809234
4567
30:13
which is pretty interesting,
591
1813834
2600
30:16
is that the Ukrainians,
592
1816434
2100
30:18
in order to be enticed to accept a freezing of the conflict,
593
1818567
5134
30:23
which de facto means that they lose a fifth of their territory,
594
1823734
3433
30:27
even though they don’t, you know, accept that politically,
595
1827201
4800
30:32
they need to be given hard security guarantees.
596
1832034
2533
30:34
And the hard security guarantees that they are given
597
1834601
3000
30:37
is NATO membership,
598
1837634
1400
30:39
which has never been actually extended.
599
1839067
1900
30:41
They say, yes, you're going to be allowed in,
600
1841001
2166
30:43
but when, we have no idea.
601
1843167
1500
30:44
And I think that if the US says,
602
1844667
3334
30:48
"If you accept a freezing of the conflict,
603
1848034
2800
30:50
we give you NATO membership, and that means the conflict is frozen,
604
1850867
3167
30:54
you lose 20 percent of your territory.
605
1854034
1933
30:56
But if Russia tries to take any more, they're fighting everybody."
606
1856001
3266
30:59
They're fighting NATO.
607
1859301
1533
31:00
That’s acceptable to Zelenskyy.
608
1860867
2667
31:03
Zelenskyy, I think, can get there in a way that it would be much,
609
1863567
3700
31:07
much harder for Zelenskyy to accept
610
1867301
2600
31:09
what Trump would be arguing for
611
1869901
3100
31:13
on their erstwhile phone call.
612
1873034
3100
31:16
The point, of course, is that Putin won't accept that
613
1876801
3700
31:20
because Putin isn't prepared to accept
614
1880534
2867
31:23
Ukraine being a part of NATO.
615
1883434
2133
31:26
But if Putin says no and he won't have negotiations,
616
1886267
4267
31:30
but the Ukrainians say yes and NATO says yes,
617
1890567
2734
31:33
you are now in a better position globally
618
1893334
2567
31:35
because you can now go to other countries with influence over Russia, like China,
619
1895934
4367
31:40
and say, "Look, we've got a peace plan.
620
1900334
3233
31:43
Here it is.
621
1903601
1300
31:44
And we're all on board."
622
1904901
1633
31:46
And a lot of the countries in the global South
623
1906567
2167
31:48
that just desperately want this war to be over
624
1908767
2767
31:51
would, I think, be sympathetic to that
625
1911567
1834
31:53
in a way that right now they're not sympathetic to the US position,
626
1913434
3200
31:56
which is we defer to Ukraine.
627
1916667
1800
31:58
And the Ukrainians are saying "We want all of our land back,"
628
1918501
2866
32:01
and everyone knows they're not going to get it back.
629
1921401
2433
32:03
So it's endless war.
630
1923867
1167
32:05
Endless war that the Ukrainians
631
1925067
1500
32:06
are increasingly not going to be capable of fighting.
632
1926601
2533
32:09
So the reality, I think,
633
1929134
2467
32:11
is that the ultimate policy outcomes
634
1931601
2966
32:14
that Trump and Harris would find acceptable,
635
1934601
3966
32:18
are closer than you would think.
636
1938567
2534
32:21
But the mechanisms that they would use to try to achieve those outcomes
637
1941134
3833
32:24
are radically different.
638
1944967
1734
32:27
And as a consequence, the potential for success,
639
1947134
3667
32:30
the consequences of failure would also be very, very different.
640
1950834
3933
32:34
HW: Whew, that is so interesting.
641
1954767
2200
32:37
I will be chewing on that for some time.
642
1957001
2266
32:39
But now I'm going to change the subject completely
643
1959267
2567
32:41
because I think that we should talk about climate change.
644
1961867
2934
32:45
Milton just flattened Florida.
645
1965801
2433
32:48
Helene decimated North Carolina.
646
1968267
2634
32:50
We know, you know, I know, we know
647
1970934
2400
32:53
that climate change is not a theoretical threat.
648
1973367
2334
32:55
It is ever present,
649
1975734
1200
32:56
it is increasingly dangerous.
650
1976934
2200
32:59
What do you think the candidates are going to say about climate?
651
1979134
3533
33:02
And I guess in the back of my mind,
652
1982701
2066
33:04
I have the voices of the young people I've heard
653
1984801
2266
33:07
who are increasingly nihilistic
654
1987067
1800
33:08
about the idea that anyone is ever going to take
655
1988901
2300
33:11
any meaningful kind of change on climate.
656
1991201
2066
33:13
So where are the candidates,
657
1993301
1833
33:15
and are the young people actually right?
658
1995167
3467
33:18
IB: Oh, yeah, the young people are right.
659
1998667
2200
33:20
And the young people are the ones
660
2000867
1634
33:22
that are ultimately going to make the change on climate.
661
2002534
2633
33:25
They're the ones that are going to demand
662
2005201
1966
33:27
that companies change their behavior or they'll stop buying their goods.
663
2007201
3433
33:30
They’re the ones who demand that governments change
664
2010667
2434
33:33
or they're going to vote for much more radical outcomes,
665
2013134
2633
33:35
and they're going to increasingly do that
666
2015801
1966
33:37
as they have a larger share of the voting population,
667
2017801
2500
33:40
and they have a larger share of wallet and consumer spend.
668
2020334
2733
33:43
And, of course, as the implications of climate change become much more real
669
2023101
4200
33:47
for all of us internationally.
670
2027334
1767
33:50
Of course, we know it's getting worse
671
2030934
2300
33:53
because so much of it is already baked in,
672
2033267
2034
33:55
irrespective of what we do going forward.
673
2035334
2867
33:58
And we see the manifestations of that in massive storms
674
2038701
4066
34:02
and massive droughts, climate change,
675
2042801
2166
34:05
climate weirding as they call it,
676
2045001
1633
34:06
climate escalation on both sides.
677
2046667
2500
34:09
We see that all the time, and everyone accepts it.
678
2049201
2733
34:11
Even though there's disinformation online,
679
2051934
2200
34:14
you've got 193 countries around the world
680
2054167
3267
34:17
that are all signatories
681
2057467
1600
34:19
for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
682
2059101
2366
34:21
and they all accept that what we see
683
2061501
2933
34:24
and what the scientists tell us in front of our eyes.
684
2064434
3400
34:27
And I certainly understand that a Harris administration
685
2067867
4867
34:32
is going to talk a much bigger game about green energy
686
2072734
5967
34:38
and about a transition to sustainable energy.
687
2078734
3267
34:43
I also know that Trump is going to talk a lot more
688
2083401
2366
34:45
about drill, baby drill, and oil and gas and even coal,
689
2085767
5100
34:50
and he will give much more personal access to his administration
690
2090901
4600
34:55
from the CEOs of those companies, who will be more frequent guests.
691
2095534
4033
34:59
And they almost never have a chance to see Biden.
692
2099567
2300
35:01
But, but, but.
693
2101901
1333
35:04
You saw that Harris walked back her "I oppose fracking."
694
2104034
4967
35:09
She walked it back de facto when she became vice president.
695
2109667
2934
35:12
She walked it back in dure when she was asked about it on the trail.
696
2112634
5600
35:18
The United States is now producing more oil than ever before
697
2118867
6300
35:25
and far more oil than anyone else in the world.
698
2125201
2400
35:27
Far more than the Saudis, far more than the Russians.
699
2127601
2533
35:30
That is under a Harris- Biden administration.
700
2130167
3500
35:33
And I expect that that would be extended under a Harris presidency.
701
2133701
3766
35:37
Under Trump,
702
2137501
2266
35:39
there's no question that he is going to make it easier to have permitting
703
2139801
6166
35:46
for additional drilling in Alaska and other places,
704
2146001
3333
35:49
and he’s going to make the regulatory environment easier to navigate
705
2149367
3534
35:52
for more infrastructure build, the rest of it.
706
2152934
2667
35:55
But I don't think he's going to suddenly eviscerate the Inflation Reduction Act,
707
2155634
5300
36:00
because so many of the jobs that come from that legislation are red-state jobs.
708
2160967
5667
36:06
So much of the investment is red-state investment.
709
2166667
3067
36:09
And I mean,
710
2169767
1200
36:11
the highest level of post-carbon energy production in the United States
711
2171001
5033
36:16
was California a couple of years ago.
712
2176067
1967
36:18
It's now Texas, right?
713
2178067
2200
36:20
Texas, which has become an energy superpower in its own right
714
2180301
4033
36:24
for oil, for gas and also for solar and wind, right?
715
2184367
6067
36:30
And I also think that both administrations
716
2190801
2633
36:33
would be moving faster to permit nuclear.
717
2193467
2467
36:35
So for the United States, it is really an all of above,
718
2195967
4567
36:40
all of the above policy,
719
2200567
1934
36:42
which, by the way, is also China's policy.
720
2202534
4000
36:46
The only thing is that China is 20 years ahead of the United States.
721
2206567
3567
36:50
China's been investing at scale for a long time in wind and solar
722
2210167
6100
36:56
and geothermal and nuclear
723
2216301
2400
36:58
and electric vehicles and batteries
724
2218701
2566
37:01
and supply chain all over the world,
725
2221301
2233
37:03
while the Americans have been ignoring it.
726
2223567
2600
37:06
And so now the Chinese have world leaders at scale
727
2226167
3534
37:09
in all the global renewable energy.
728
2229701
1800
37:11
And the Americans aren't there yet.
729
2231534
1700
37:13
But Americans recognize that's the policy they need.
730
2233234
2467
37:15
So you're going to have two superpowers of energy,
731
2235701
4233
37:19
the United States, the superpower of carbon energy,
732
2239967
3034
37:23
trying to transition and increasingly transitioning.
733
2243034
3200
37:26
And you're going to have the Chinese,
734
2246234
1800
37:28
the superpowers of post-carbon energy, right?
735
2248067
3600
37:31
And the rest of the world saying,
736
2251701
2666
37:34
what the hell are you going to do for us,
737
2254401
2600
37:37
as the climate is getting warmer and we're not capable of paying for it?
738
2257034
4667
37:41
And I think the gap between the US and China and the global South
739
2261734
4033
37:45
is going to grow on this issue,
740
2265801
2000
37:47
because what the American solution is, well, just invest in new technology,
741
2267834
4733
37:52
make it cheap enough that eventually these countries are going to be able
742
2272601
3433
37:56
to take advantage of it.
743
2276067
1200
37:57
That's great,
744
2277301
1133
37:58
But what they want are reparations, because the Americans are the ones,
745
2278467
3367
38:01
and the Chinese, are responsible for getting us to where we are.
746
2281834
3067
38:04
The Europeans and these countries won't be able to emit carbon in the atmosphere
747
2284901
3800
38:08
the way we have.
748
2288734
1167
38:09
And yet, they're going to be facing all the costs
749
2289934
5000
38:14
of the lack of biodiversity,
750
2294967
3134
38:18
of the lack of ability to produce effective agriculture, all the rest.
751
2298134
4433
38:22
And the hope, the hope --
752
2302601
2366
38:25
and you see, for example, Eric Schmidt talking about this
753
2305001
2700
38:27
in the last few weeks,
754
2307701
1766
38:29
is that you're going to make bigger AI bets
755
2309501
2466
38:32
that will allow these countries to meet their sustainable development goals
756
2312001
3633
38:35
and allow these countries to deal with climate change.
757
2315667
2967
38:38
That's a great bet,
758
2318667
1500
38:40
but it is an unproven bet as of now.
759
2320201
2433
38:42
I'm a believer, but my God,
760
2322667
2134
38:44
we have to get lucky
761
2324801
1500
38:46
to not have this be far, far more devastating
762
2326301
3200
38:49
for people all over the world.
763
2329534
1700
38:51
HW: Now either candidate taking the idea of reparations seriously,
764
2331267
3467
38:54
is that really being talked through, talked about?
765
2334734
3000
38:57
IB: No, in fact, even AOC,
766
2337767
1834
38:59
when she was talking about a Green New Deal,
767
2339601
2066
39:01
she wasn't talking about a Green Marshall Plan.
768
2341701
2366
39:04
It was American exceptionalism.
769
2344101
2100
39:06
I mean, you know, the funny thing about American policy is that, you know,
770
2346234
3500
39:09
you go from left to right
771
2349734
1400
39:11
and the entire political spectrum is still pretty narrow
772
2351167
2934
39:14
from a global perspective, right?
773
2354134
2400
39:16
That is something that I think
774
2356567
2034
39:18
people in the United States need to be more aware of.
775
2358634
3367
39:23
HW: Alright.
776
2363934
1133
39:25
So there are so many other things that we should and could talk about,
777
2365101
3300
39:28
but we have limited time.
778
2368434
1200
39:29
So I'm going to chuck very large topics at you
779
2369667
2400
39:32
and ask you to very pithily define exactly where we are
780
2372101
3166
39:35
and what we need to think about.
781
2375301
1766
39:37
Immigration.
782
2377067
1200
39:38
You mentioned it earlier.
783
2378301
1233
39:39
It's been a huge issue for both candidates.
784
2379534
2067
39:41
But who’s thinking smartly about this, and what should we look for?
785
2381601
3200
39:44
IB: You're seeing more alignment
786
2384801
2566
39:47
between Harris and Trump on immigration.
787
2387401
3233
39:50
Not as fast as you've seen in Europe,
788
2390667
2034
39:52
but in Europe you're now seeing EU-wide efforts
789
2392734
3600
39:56
to coordinate immigration policy driven by Ursula von der Leyen,
790
2396367
4667
40:01
aligned with, you know, people as diverse as Schultz
791
2401034
4667
40:05
and Maloney and Macron.
792
2405701
3033
40:08
I mean, even Orban, who just met with von der Leyen
793
2408734
3033
40:11
and certainly it was a fairly acrimonious meeting.
794
2411801
2466
40:14
But, you know, Orban's point was,
795
2414301
2000
40:16
when you look at Hungary's Viktor Orban,
796
2416334
2700
40:19
when you look at, you know,
797
2419067
1700
40:20
the EU policy on migration,
798
2420801
2266
40:23
this is stuff he was talking about years ago.
799
2423101
2200
40:25
So in the United States, you have a lot of, you know,
800
2425334
3933
40:29
relatively blue cities
801
2429267
2034
40:31
that have been very, very comfortable
802
2431334
1800
40:33
talking about being sanctuary cities
803
2433167
1967
40:35
and being open for lots of illegal immigration,
804
2435167
2267
40:37
which they are very happy to trumpet
805
2437467
3600
40:41
when it's a theoretical issue.
806
2441067
2234
40:43
And then as soon as those immigrants start coming over in large number,
807
2443334
3400
40:46
because these are not border cities, right?
808
2446767
2100
40:48
Some of them are Canadian border cities.
809
2448901
2233
40:51
They're not border cities which they see as a problem.
810
2451167
3600
40:54
And then suddenly, they realize, wait a second.
811
2454767
2534
40:57
We don't want to pay for all this.
812
2457634
2267
40:59
We don't want to have all these people in our city.
813
2459934
2400
41:02
And they become much more cautious
814
2462367
3934
41:06
and hard-line on illegal immigration.
815
2466301
3233
41:09
So I do think that if Harris were to become president,
816
2469567
3934
41:13
you would see a continuation
817
2473534
2033
41:15
of a much tougher set of policies that Biden has implemented
818
2475601
3400
41:19
in the election period
819
2479001
1500
41:20
to try to bring immigration numbers down
820
2480501
3200
41:23
and which, frankly, are closer to the immigration policies
821
2483734
3700
41:27
that you saw under Trump.
822
2487434
1700
41:29
I don't think that there's an enormous gap.
823
2489934
2367
41:32
The rhetorical gap is what's much bigger,
824
2492334
2633
41:35
the willingness of Trump to use immigrant populations,
825
2495001
4833
41:39
to demonize them,
826
2499867
1634
41:41
to say that they are somehow genetically at fault
827
2501534
3933
41:45
when they are, you know, committing violent crimes,
828
2505467
2734
41:48
even though the violent crime rate overall
829
2508234
2467
41:50
is nowhere close to what it was in the '90s.
830
2510734
2200
41:52
And immigrants are some of the least likely to commit them,
831
2512967
3600
41:56
because that means they get tossed out of the country,
832
2516567
3267
41:59
as opposed to people that actually have a legal right to be in the US.
833
2519867
4267
42:04
But, I mean, there's been so much really disturbing language
834
2524501
3533
42:08
that I think has increased hatred
835
2528034
2900
42:10
and leads to more violence and hate crimes
836
2530967
2434
42:13
against illegal immigrants
837
2533434
1333
42:14
and frequently against immigrants that aren't illegal.
838
2534767
2800
42:18
I think Trump's much more willing.
839
2538467
1634
42:20
That's a feature of Trump, of Vance,
840
2540134
3067
42:23
of the MAGA America First-ism,
841
2543234
3100
42:26
in part because it's a grievance-based, more nativist ideology.
842
2546367
5234
42:31
But the actual policies on immigration are not so radically different.
843
2551601
4666
42:36
The big difference in policy implementation
844
2556267
3100
42:39
that Trump has talked about
845
2559401
1600
42:41
is wanting to send back some 11 million illegal migrants in the US.
846
2561034
5600
42:46
There is absolutely no way he would be able to implement that policy.
847
2566667
4400
42:51
The infrastructure doesn't exist.
848
2571067
1600
42:52
It would not be created.
849
2572701
1733
42:54
But I would say that even if he did 10 percent of it, which is plausible,
850
2574434
5167
42:59
the inflationary impact that would have
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on labor in the United States would be significant.
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43:05
And I think that the market participants
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43:08
that are looking at the difference between Harris and Trump
854
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43:11
are looking at tariffs
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43:13
but they're also looking specifically at labor rates and immigration.
856
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43:18
HW: That's interesting.
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43:19
I mean, inflation has also been a huge topic of conversation,
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43:22
but I don't know that people are necessarily connecting
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43:25
immigration and inflationary rates.
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43:28
What else should people be thinking about
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43:30
in terms of the economy from these two candidates?
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43:33
IB: The fact that the great deficit hawks are near extinction.
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43:39
That either Trump or Harris would be strongly expansionary
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43:44
in terms of fiscal spend.
865
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43:47
There would be slightly different focus, I think,
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43:49
that Trump would look to extend the entire tax cut package
867
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43:54
that would be coming to a conclusion.
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43:57
It was, you know, put in as temporary kicking the can to somebody else.
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44:01
And if that can is kicked to the same person, he's going to expand it all.
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44:04
So he wouldn't get as much money in,
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44:08
and he would also try to reduce corporate tax rates further.
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44:12
The intention would be to juice growth,
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44:14
but I don't think that that would meet the expenditure
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44:20
and, especially in a still comparatively slightly higher interest rate environment,
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44:24
where you're doing a lot more debt servicing as a part of your budget.
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44:28
And also, I think Trump would lean more heavily
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44:31
into higher spending in defense,
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44:34
Kamala Harris,
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her policies would be less growth-oriented for the private sector.
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44:41
Though she is trying to lean into small and medium enterprises
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44:44
and entrepreneurship, again, something that you would see,
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44:46
you know, green shoots of that are useful long term,
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44:49
but you wouldn't see that benefit for the four years of her presidency.
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44:52
She would certainly increase tax rates on the wealthy
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44:56
and probably the corporate, the baseline corporate tax rate.
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44:59
So that would bring more money in.
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45:01
But the significant expansion of social programs
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45:04
would more than make up for that.
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45:06
And so both of these presidents would be significantly expansionary
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45:12
on the fiscal side.
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45:13
I don't think it would affect the interest
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45:15
in the strength of the dollar globally,
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45:18
I think that's a much longer-term issue,
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45:20
especially given how weak the comparative other stores of value
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45:23
and economies are around the world,
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45:25
Japan, the Eurozone, China, which isn't convertible.
897
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3633
45:29
But certainly this is a very big can that is being kicked.
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45:34
And when you talk about US politics frequently,
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45:36
that's what you're talking about.
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45:38
You're talking about short-term, tactical refusal
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45:40
to accept long-term strategic challenges.
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45:43
The climate change challenge is the biggest example of that.
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45:47
But the fiscal challenge is a certain second.
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45:50
HW: So many cans, so little time.
905
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45:53
OK, here's a really great question
906
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45:55
that we had in from one of our lovely TED members.
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45:58
"What can be done
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45:59
about the pandemic of misinformation
909
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46:01
making a mockery of informed voting?"
910
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2500
46:03
IB: I think as long as we have algorithms
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46:09
that are driving the information that we get
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46:13
and that are being driven by a profit motive
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46:16
as opposed to a civic motive, a community motive,
914
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4300
46:21
or just an accuracy and information motive,
915
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4167
46:25
all of those things would be very different.
916
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46:27
You're going to have this become a much bigger problem.
917
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46:31
I remember when weathermen and women
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46:35
weren't objects of politicization.
919
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46:40
That is no longer true.
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46:42
There's weather control, apparently,
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46:45
from God knows who, from "them."
922
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46:47
They're doing weather control.
923
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46:51
You know, hurricanes do not differentiate between Trump voters
924
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4100
46:55
and Harris voters,
925
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46:56
and you desperately need to listen to the scientists,
926
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47:02
on what is likely to come from an imminent,
927
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47:06
massive storm and tornadoes and storm surge.
928
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47:10
And, you know, more people are dead today because of that disinformation.
929
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47:15
So if you think that this is unprecedented and bad
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47:19
when we talk about a hurricane,
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47:22
and never mind when we talk about a pandemic,
932
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47:25
then what do you think is going to happen with our democracy?
933
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47:28
So I think there are a lot of things that can be done.
934
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47:31
One of them is that bots do not have free speech.
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47:35
They don't have the right of free speech.
936
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47:37
I'm a big advocate of free speech.
937
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47:39
I think it's an important thing we have in our country.
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47:42
It applies to human beings.
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47:43
So I think that human beings, at least in America,
940
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3100
47:46
and I understand there are problems in more repressive societies,
941
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3134
47:49
and for now, the US is not such a society, though there are trends,
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47:54
should be verified.
943
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47:56
In other words, you have to be a real human being
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3000
47:59
to be able to exist on a social media platform,
945
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3700
48:03
as a human being,
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1300
48:04
to be verified, to be promoted algorithmically.
947
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2934
48:08
And if you're not,
948
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1500
48:09
I mean, there's a place for AI-related content,
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48:13
but that content needs to be not verified,
950
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3700
48:16
and it cannot be promoted algorithmically.
951
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48:19
It has to be promoted by a human being who knows it's AI-driven content.
952
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3467
48:22
I think that would make a difference.
953
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2134
48:25
I also think that we need more responsibility
954
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6233
48:32
for civic relations and democracy
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48:37
from our corporate leadership.
956
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2000
48:39
We just do.
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48:41
And I think that we have seen an unfortunate, you know,
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48:46
lionization of a whole class of people
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48:50
that are making an incredible amount of money,
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48:52
they're the richest people in the world,
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1933
48:54
and they show zero concern
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48:56
for the well-being of their fellow citizens.
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49:00
And that has to change.
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49:02
More people have to lead by example.
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2500
49:04
But we are going to need more regulation as well
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49:09
that helps ensure that if a business model is actively eroding democracy,
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49:15
that they have to pay for the costs of that.
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4534
49:20
They have to be responsible for the negative externalities.
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3233
49:23
You and I talked about climate change.
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1834
49:25
It's fairly clear that if you're a company that emits pollution,
971
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4433
49:29
you should have to pay for that pollution, because if you don't,
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49:32
the animals will pay, the kids will pay.
973
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49:35
You know, the society will pay.
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49:37
Someone always pays.
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49:39
And that is equally true when we talk about disinformation.
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49:44
If there are costs to a platform --
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49:49
a platform has every right to make money --
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2834
49:51
but if there are direct costs to society that are measurable,
979
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3333
49:55
that come from the existence and the furtherance of that product,
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49:59
those are costs that also have to be borne by that corporation,
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4334
50:03
and we have not yet been willing to have that conversation.
982
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50:07
Reparations are one thing.
983
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50:09
I mean, you know, the idea that you have to pay
984
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2234
50:11
for the countries that you've already --
985
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1933
50:13
But I'm talking about things that are happening right now,
986
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2734
50:16
companies that are making money right now, that are making benefits,
987
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3233
50:19
that are actively not paying for costs on the back of our citizens
988
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4700
50:24
and our young people.
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50:25
That is not acceptable, and that has to change.
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50:27
HW: Well said, Ian Bremmer.
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50:29
What are the chances --
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50:31
and this is a horrible question, but I have to ask it --
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50:33
what do you think are the chances that we’re going to experience violence
994
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50:37
after the election?
995
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50:39
IB: Well, violence, sure.
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50:40
I mean, we experience violence every day in this country,
997
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50:43
so I don't think you mean that.
998
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50:44
I'm not sure you mean January 6 type violence,
999
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50:48
because I think that's very unlikely.
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1800
50:50
I think Washington, DC will be locked down.
1001
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50:53
It's the same thing that, like, you know, you had to take your shoes off.
1002
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50:57
Why?
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50:58
Because it was a shoe bomber on a plane,
1004
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51:01
so damned if you're going to put them in your shoes going forward.
1005
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3133
51:04
I mean, we make sure that we can’t do the same thing a second time.
1006
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3167
51:07
But I do think there’s going to be violence.
1007
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2067
51:09
Look, you haven't asked me about two assassination attempts
1008
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3900
51:13
on former President Trump.
1009
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51:15
At least one of which was incredibly close from happening.
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51:20
I mean, if this kid had been at all remotely capable as a shooter,
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51:27
Trump's dead.
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51:28
And I think that Trump's supporters,
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51:31
who believe that "they" have tried to impeach and convict him twice
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6234
51:37
for crimes he didn't commit,
1015
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51:39
then they're trying to throw him in jail for crimes he didn't commit,
1016
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3633
51:43
and we're going to vote for him anyway.
1017
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51:45
And then they try to kill him, and they killed him.
1018
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2400
51:47
They killed him.
1019
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1100
51:48
I think they do not accept that.
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51:50
And I think that that would have led to serious riots across the country,
1021
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51:54
violent riots with people with guns
1022
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3100
51:58
and not just citizens,
1023
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52:01
but I think also Trump supporters in the military,
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5000
52:06
you know, recruits,
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2334
52:08
you know, enlisted men and women,
1026
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1800
52:10
I think Trump supporters in police forces.
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52:12
I think this would have been certainly far more violent
1028
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52:15
than anything we would have seen since the Vietnam days,
1029
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3367
52:18
and maybe worse than that.
1030
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1967
52:20
And no one asked me about it.
1031
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52:22
In the last several weeks,
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52:24
I don't think I've gotten one question from anyone,
1033
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2500
52:26
from a meeting with a leader,
1034
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1800
52:28
during the UN General Assembly week,
1035
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1734
52:30
all the leaders I met with,
1036
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52:31
or in a media interview or a speech, nothing.
1037
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52:33
And yet we were this close to that.
1038
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2900
52:36
And so I do think that we are, you know, kind of normalizing this process,
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4800
52:41
even though this process is anything but normal.
1040
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3133
52:45
There will be districts that don't certify the winner of the election
1041
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5400
52:50
because the elected officials don't like the outcome.
1042
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4500
52:55
There will be massive numbers of court cases.
1043
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52:57
I think there will be intimidation in certain areas
1044
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2434
53:00
that will try to stop certain people from voting.
1045
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2767
53:02
And I think that after the vote is done,
1046
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53:05
there will be huge numbers of people that don't believe that it's true,
1047
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3700
53:09
that believe it's rigged.
1048
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53:11
And that's a dangerous place to be.
1049
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53:15
So I'm not that worried about the weeks running up to the election,
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3434
53:18
the next four.
1051
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53:19
I'm very worried about the days and weeks after the election.
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53:23
I'm not talking about a civil war.
1053
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53:25
I’m not talking about the US becoming a dictatorship.
1054
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53:28
But I am talking about a period of profound unrest
1055
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4933
53:33
that people alive in the US right now aren't really prepared for
1056
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53:38
and they're certainly not used to.
1057
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53:40
HW: That is a very miserable note on which to end, but end we must.
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53:44
So I suppose the conclusion is that we should all go vote.
1059
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53:47
I'm just going to share that this is the first election
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53:50
that I will be voting in as an American citizen,
1061
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53:53
I'm really very excited,
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53:55
and I'm very excited that I get to talk to you on these occasions.
1063
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53:58
Ian, thank you so much for your wisdom and for your insight.
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54:01
Thank you to all the TED members for being here
1065
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2200
54:03
and we will see you again soon.
1066
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54:05
IB: Thank you, Helen.
1067
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1266
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