Can America Come Together after the Trump Assassination Attempt? | Ian Bremmer | TED

116,236 views ・ 2024-07-15

TED


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00:03
Helen Walters: Former US President Donald Trump
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was shot at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania,
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in what FBI officials are investigating as an assassination attempt.
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Obviously, the hot takes are flying,
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but we wanted to talk to Ian Bremmer about the bigger picture
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of the state of American politics and democracy.
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As we all know, the US election is coming up in November.
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So how pivotal a moment is this,
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and what do we need to both do and watch for
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in our capacity as invested humans, wherever we are?
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Ian, thank you so much for joining us.
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Ian Bremmer: Helen, it is great to be with you.
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HW: So let's get right to it.
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How significant a moment is this,
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and what should we be paying attention to right now?
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IB: Well, maybe for a second,
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let's recognize that it was this close to changing the course of history.
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Former President Trump could easily have been assassinated.
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And it's a staggering failure of the Secret Service
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that is, you know, on scene,
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given the incredible amounts of security that are around a president,
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a former president.
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This is a big rally.
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That was what was staggering to me,
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not that we were going to see violence and social discord in this election cycle.
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That seemed pretty certain.
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But the potential for the president to have been assassinated,
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that is quite staggering.
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Having said that, this is an enormous issue
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because it does change the course of the campaign.
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Number one, for example,
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it makes it much less likely, far less likely,
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that Biden is going to stand down.
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For the last two weeks,
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that is almost all anyone could talk about.
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And even though he did not want to go, and in my view,
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he shouldn't have been running
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and neither should Trump for over a year now.
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I think they’re both far too old.
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But it was increasingly likely
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that he was going to be under more and more pressure.
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That's gone.
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That's gone.
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It's gone from the news.
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And certainly, if Biden doesn't want to go, he doesn't have to.
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And instead the focus is going to be
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on a uniquely polarized US electoral cycle,
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an enormous amount of disinformation,
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an enormous amount of tribalism,
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an enormous amount of political anger.
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And can the country come together?
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Can any good come from this extraordinary tragedy at all?
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For the near term, I am skeptical,
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but we should always hold out hope, and we can talk about that.
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But those are a few of the things that we're looking at
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in terms of what just happened.
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HW: So what do you think the campaigns do now?
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IB: I think that Trump appears in Milwaukee,
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the Republican National Convention,
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as Lazarus.
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I think it is extraordinary.
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The political instincts and the human instincts
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that Trump had after he was shot
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and he is bleeding on his face,
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and he has no idea if that shooter is still out there, no idea.
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And and he gets right up
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and he strains against the Secret Service
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and he doesn't want to be covered.
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He wants his followers,
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he wants the world to see him with fist raised saying,
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"Fight, fight, fight."
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And we've already seen that this is the Time magazine cover,
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it's the lead, it's the iconic image of the campaign
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and will be for a long time.
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And for a campaign that has been much less about the party
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and much more about him,
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about Donald Trump, the man,
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I think that level of fervor in supporting him,
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especially by his core base,
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is going to grow dramatically.
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And the campaign, I think, will reflect that.
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If I were to make a bet,
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and I recognize that this is a very quickly moving target,
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so I could easily be wrong,
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I think this makes it more likely
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that Trump goes with the vice presidential candidate
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that is very much aligned with him and that message.
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And so to me, that feels more like JD Vance than anyone else.
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There are obviously lots of other considerations,
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but Trump is someone that relies more on his personal judgment and gut
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and instinct
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than he does on a lot of those other considerations,
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so that's why I think it's worth mentioning.
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And I also think that if you're Biden, you are trying to unify.
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It is going to be a lot harder in this environment
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for Biden to talk about Trump
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as an existential threat to democracy.
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Irrespective of the fact that he feels that way,
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it must be recognized
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that some in the Democratic Party
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who have talked in that way and have used, you know,
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sort of the more visceral Trump as orange Hitler,
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that is the kind of thing that makes it feel patriotic to engage in violence.
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And by the way,
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we saw a lot of that around January 6.
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That if you convince your followers
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that this incredible injustice is being done
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and you're going to lose your democracy if you don't stop the rigged election,
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and if you don't march down and occupy the Capitol,
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that’s how you get people chanting, “Hang Mike Pence.”
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That's how you get people calling for violence
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against their members of Congress, House and Senate.
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So I do think that that component of Biden's campaign,
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which has been a significant component of his campaign,
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is going to be far less effective.
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And I think he's going to be more careful about making it,
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and so will a lot of his supporters.
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So that's one more thing
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I think that this is going to really change,
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the way the campaign is going to be run.
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HW: Do you think this changes anything for Trump and for his campaign,
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or do you think that he just now stands on this, as you say, as Lazarus,
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kind of emerging triumphant from this really terrifying moment?
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IB: So, Helen, let me say,
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I do think there's an opportunity here for Trump.
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This election for the past months has been Biden's to lose.
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And it increasingly was looking,
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especially after that horrible debate just a couple of weeks ago,
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that he was indeed preparing to lose it.
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With this near-assassination,
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with the president, the former president being shot,
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this election is now Trump's to win.
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Remember when Biden said, "When they push me down,"
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you know, sort of, “You get back up.”
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Nobody pushed him down, he fell.
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He self-immolated.
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That debate was not won by Trump.
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It was lost by Biden.
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And the response and lack of response for days,
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didn't even talk to the press until Stephanopoulos,
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a full eight days later,
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those were self-owns, right?
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That was, you know, Biden not ready,
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not up for it, his people not wanting to risk it.
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This is different.
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Trump's future is now in his hands.
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And he did an extraordinary job
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of showing that he wasn't going to get knocked down.
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When they knocked Trump down,
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he got back up.
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That, he got back up.
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But the question is,
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is Trump just a winner, or does he want to be a leader?
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Because, you know, right now I worry
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that the United States increasingly is becoming a country of winners
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but not a country of leaders.
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You know, winners are people that do absolutely everything they can
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to get to the finish line.
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And it doesn't matter how they do it,
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it doesn't matter, you know, sort of who's kind of knocked down in their way.
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Doesn't matter what the tactics are, as long as you win.
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We're number one, right?
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I mean, the United States is known for that
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and in many places admired for that,
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but also disliked and frequently loathed for that.
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And Trump has shown
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that he is one of the most extraordinary winners out there.
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And he talks frequently in that language.
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He doesn’t like you? “You’re a loser.
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You’re a loser,” right?
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And so the question is,
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can Trump not only win the election, but can he lead?
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Can he -- I mean, the Speaker of the House
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Mike Johnson, came out and used the same language
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hours after this assassination attempt that Biden did.
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Unifying, language of unity,
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language of political violence is wrong in all contexts,
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and we must now work together to abhor it.
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That was the language that we were hearing after 9/11.
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So the question is, might Trump do that?
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I will tell you,
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I think that it is in Trump's power to be able to do that
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at the Republican National Convention
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and going forward.
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It is not his inclination, it is not his instinct,
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and it's not his history, right?
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I mean, especially because this is a man who has been impeached twice.
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This is a man who has been indicted dozens and dozens of times,
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convicted 34 times of felony charges.
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And he believes that his political enemies are responsible for that.
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He believes that the reason that he was shot and almost killed
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is because of his political adversaries.
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He believes that.
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That's a horrible thing for the country.
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And the question is,
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does he see any desire, any utility?
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Is he willing to try to step out of his instincts and impulses,
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many of them not serving the country or the world well.
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Just his team, just his base.
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And instead become a leader of the entire American people.
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Because I will tell you, Helen,
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again, I think he's going to win, at this point.
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I wouldn't bet everything on it.
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It's still four months away, but I think it's a safe bet.
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And if he wins, he'll be my president.
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And I will say that, he'll be my president.
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But will he believe that he is actually the president equally of all Americans?
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In the United Kingdom,
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just recently, we saw a transfer of power
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between Rishi Sunak from the Conservative Party
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and Keir Starmer of the Labour Party.
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And they both spoke in terms of unity
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that both of these men fundamentally believe in.
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They believe that public service is about the public
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and it's service.
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They believe that, they actually, they don't just say it,
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they actually believe that.
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And the UK is a far more functional democracy today for that reason.
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And when we look at democracies all over the world this year,
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and so many of them have been having elections, in France as well,
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and across the European Union and Parliament and in Mexico
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and in South Africa and in India and in Indonesia.
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We have seen that democracies all over the world
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are capable of having free and fair elections,
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with leaders that lead for the country.
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Not all equally well or effectively,
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and frequently using divisive rhetoric,
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but at the end of the day, they still think that.
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That is not where we have been heading
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in the United States.
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It is not true today.
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This is a country where 25 percent of Americans now say
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that patriots may have to resort to violence
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in order to save the country.
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That's what Americans say.
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Twenty-five percent agree with that.
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That to me, sounds like a democracy in crisis.
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Seventy-five percent of Americans say
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that American democracy is at risk
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in the 2024 presidential election.
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But of course, those 75 percent do not agree on why it's at risk.
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A lot of them believe it's because Trump is an existential threat to democracy.
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A lot of other ones believe that Biden has already rigged the election
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and has destroyed democracy
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with special interests and the deep state.
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Again, that is not a sustainable path to democracy.
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And right now, there's honestly only one person in the United States
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that could make a really big difference in that trajectory.
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And that's the man that right now just escaped death
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and is set to become the next president.
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HW: That's so interesting to hear you describe things in that way.
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And I'm curious, do you see anybody else coming up?
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Are there any emerging leaders from either the Democratic Party
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or the Republican Party who you see
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actually may be able to help build bridges or foster relationships
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or actually do things in a different way because, as you say,
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kind of the spectacle and the theater of American politics
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has become overweening,
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and the public service has really seemed to take second place
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to grandstanding.
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But who else, like, are there any other emerging leaders that you're watching
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that actually bring you hope?
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IB: Oh, absolutely.
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There are a lot of younger people coming up
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that I think reflect that kind of sensibility.
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I mean, I look at some of the governors, for example,
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you look at a Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan,
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or you look at a Glenn Youngkin in Virginia
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and you see, you know, sort of in their 50s,
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robust political leaders
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that certainly have an ideological tilt and policy preference.
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But at the end of the day, they're bridge builders.
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They want to work with other people.
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In the Senate,
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I see Chris Coons from Delaware. I see Mitt Romney from Utah.
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These are people that are very interested in bipartisan legislation
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and working together and working with each other.
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I think there are a lot of people like that,
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and I think there are a lot of young people in America
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whose names we don’t know yet who are like that.
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But that is not this political cycle.
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That is very far from Trump versus Biden redux.
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And, you know, I think that there are other people as well.
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There are sports stars, there are entertainers.
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I mean, there are a lot of Americans
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that are, you know, soft-power types
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but wield real power and have real influence
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and have a lot of money,
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14:43
who inspire all sorts of young people.
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14:47
But you wouldn't say that they're playing a significant role
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in the political space.
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And when they are,
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they typically do a little more partisan damage than they do good, right?
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And that's particularly true
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when we talk about the most powerful individual Americans, right?
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I mean, the Elon Musks and the Jeff Bezoses,
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who you and I have spoken about before,
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15:08
who care a lot more about themselves
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and self-aggrandizement
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than they do about their fellow citizens.
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15:16
HW: Interesting that you bring up Elon Musk.
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Obviously, he came out right after the attempted assassination
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and endorsed Trump,
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which was something previously he had said he wasn't going to do.
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Does that matter?
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Should we pay attention to that?
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IB: Well, it matters, especially since I think Trump's going to be president.
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15:32
I mean, right now, Elon is, you know, the wealthiest guy on the planet.
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He wields probably more power individually than any other American.
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15:43
And the fact that he has aligned himself with MAGA ideology
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and has algorithmically been promoting that
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on his social media platform is a big deal.
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15:55
He certainly, you know, he's been speaking with Trump regularly.
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He seems to want to have some form of advisory role
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16:04
with a Trump presidency.
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And were he to do that, you know, for example, Trump owns Truth Social.
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It's not doing very much,
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not clear how Trump would be able to own it as president.
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16:14
It's very clear that Elon could buy it.
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And it could then be Elon's Voice of America,
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16:20
which would give those two men an awful lot more power together.
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16:26
And would also help entrench political power
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16:32
in the individuals that occupy the position of president
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16:36
and the positions of power around them,
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16:39
and make it much harder to displace them.
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16:42
I mean, part of the issue in the United States right now
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is whether or not rule of law and democracy are sustainable
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16:51
on the present trajectory.
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16:53
And I am not someone who believes
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that the US is on the precipice of dictatorship at all.
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I don't believe that.
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16:58
I don't believe the US is about to have a civil war.
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17:01
And I didn't believe that on January 6.
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17:03
And I said that at the time, and you and I talked about it.
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17:07
But I do believe
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17:09
that we are seeing an erosion of rule of law
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17:12
that will create far more power
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17:15
for sitting incumbent presidents and their parties and their fellows.
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So, I mean, for example,
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17:22
the Supreme Court ruling
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17:24
that any official act of a president has impunity
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17:28
gives more power to the executive.
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17:32
The fact that we are in an environment
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17:37
where the filibuster in the Senate,
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17:42
we no longer have the moderates that were really,
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17:45
really convinced it needed to stay,
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17:47
like Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin.
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17:52
And so were the Democrats or Republicans to take a majority of 51, 52 --
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17:57
again, this cycle looks much more like the Republicans --
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18:00
I think the filibuster is gone.
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18:02
That's a lot more power for the incumbent, the sitting party, right?
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5160
18:07
We have a media environment that is far more politicized
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18:12
and suffused with disinformation,
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18:15
social media even more so, algorithmically.
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18:18
Now, if you take that
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18:19
and then you weaponize the Department of Justice,
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18:23
the FBI, the IRS,
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18:25
which, again, Trump and advisers have claimed
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18:29
that the Biden team is already doing, right?
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18:32
If that were to happen in dramatic form under a Trump presidency,
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18:36
you are permanently eroding rule of law.
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18:39
And then the United States still has the best economy in the world,
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18:43
still has the reserve currency,
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1960
18:45
still has the biggest, most powerful military.
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2440
18:47
But its political system starts feeling much more like a hybrid,
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18:51
not a functional democracy,
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18:53
but more like a Hungary or a Serbia or a Turkey,
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18:56
where it's actually structurally much, much harder for opposition parties,
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19:03
individuals, media, to function and certainly to gain power.
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19:08
I think that is the question
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19:11
of where the United States is going to fit on a spectrum
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19:15
of open to closed systems that we presently see around the world.
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19:20
HW: Let's talk a little bit more about the media,
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because obviously we’re all watching this,
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2000
19:25
and we've all watched, for many years at this point,
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19:27
the increased kind of polarization that we see in the media,
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2840
19:30
kind of the fracturing into us versus them,
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2520
19:32
where they are coming for us,
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19:35
they're coming for our families.
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19:36
They are always someone else.
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1800
19:38
They are not people who agree with us or believe our ideas.
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19:41
And things have become so inflammatory and so inflamed
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19:44
that it seems like the media itself has fractured and fragmented.
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19:48
How should we be thinking about that right now?
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19:50
How should we be thinking about ways to actually understand what's happening
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19:55
and maybe take the heat out of the conversation
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19:57
and actually talk about the ideas that matter,
386
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19:59
rather than the increasingly violent rhetoric?
387
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20:02
IB: Well, Helen, I do think that the media is a big part
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20:06
of what is broken right now in American democracy.
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4000
20:11
I mean, if you watch MSNBC or Fox,
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6800
20:18
you are getting two completely different sets of facts
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4520
20:22
about what is and is not reality.
392
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20:25
And that didn't used to be true,
393
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1960
20:27
not only when you and I were kids,
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1640
20:29
but even when you and I were going to college
395
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2120
20:31
and starting off our professional careers, it wasn't true.
396
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2760
20:34
It really is true now, that has caused an awful lot of damage.
397
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2920
20:37
And it's worse than that
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20:39
because most people don't watch those shows, right?
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20:43
I mean, actually the average age of someone that watches cable
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20:46
is well over 60.
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1360
20:47
Most people get their news from those shows
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20:51
and those networks through social media,
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20:53
which means they're seeing the headlines.
404
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2000
20:55
And the headlines are far worse than the content.
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3640
20:59
They're far more polarizing.
406
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1640
21:01
And that's not only true for the cable news,
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2760
21:04
which is much more infotainment,
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2000
21:06
but it’s also true even for The Wall Street Journal
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21:09
and The New York Times,
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21:10
which are supposed to be respected journalist institutions
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21:16
that are really reporting on what is
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21:19
and not what they would like to be.
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2600
21:21
And there's so many times that, I mean, you know,
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2320
21:24
the vast majority of people that promote information on politics
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21:29
in the United States of any sort,
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1600
21:31
whether it's politicians or media or individual influencers,
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4200
21:35
their analysis is literally not distinguishable
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4560
21:40
from their personal ideology and preference.
419
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2760
21:42
They're the same things.
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21:44
And I mean, the one thing I can guarantee you
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21:46
is when that is the case,
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21:48
it is useless as analysis.
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2200
21:50
It's useless as analysis.
424
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21:52
That should be obvious.
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1360
21:53
I mean, I've had this experience a bunch of times,
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2880
21:56
and there are so many things out there that I see happening that I wouldn't want,
427
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4720
22:01
but it doesn't change the analysis.
428
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1720
22:03
And I even see people reacting saying, "How can you say that?"
429
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3120
22:06
Implying that the fact that I'm writing it as analysis
430
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3240
22:09
means that I must actually want it.
431
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2040
22:11
For example, the likelihood that Ukraine is going to be partitioned
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3720
22:15
and lose a significant piece of their land,
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2040
22:17
which I strongly oppose,
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1840
22:19
but I also strongly feel it's going to happen.
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3160
22:22
And the same thing is true on things around the Middle East.
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22:25
The same thing is true when I talk about, you know,
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22:28
sort of how Biden versus Trump is going
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22:31
or how Trump is going to react
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22:32
and how Biden is going to react.
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1560
22:34
And whether Biden's going to step down again.
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22:36
I told you, I think he should,
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1480
22:37
I don't think either of them should be running.
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2200
22:40
But that didn’t mean I thought they weren’t going to.
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2480
22:42
And so I think that that is a fundamental problem,
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2760
22:45
and it is made worse by the fact that the business model for the media
446
1365420
4480
22:49
is not about getting good information out there.
447
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3640
22:53
It's about maximizing the attention economy,
448
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3880
22:57
and it's about generating clicks for data,
449
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2920
23:00
which turns citizens into products.
450
1380500
3360
23:03
Those are deeply, deeply anti-democratic business models.
451
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5360
23:09
That's not the intention.
452
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1480
23:10
It just happens to be the negative externality
453
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4240
23:15
that nobody wants to pay for.
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1600
23:16
And as you know, Helen,
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1680
23:18
when you've got a business model that has a negative externality
456
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3000
23:21
that no one wants to pay for,
457
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1600
23:23
we end up paying for it, not them, we do.
458
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2480
23:25
It's kind of funny, you would think that the problem in the United States
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3920
23:29
is that we have too much capitalism.
460
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1720
23:31
It's not.
461
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1200
23:32
It's actually that we don't have enough capitalism.
462
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2400
23:34
We have people that are very, very, very strongly capitalist
463
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3000
23:38
when they are making money.
464
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1760
23:39
But when their business model loses money, they stop being capitalists.
465
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4120
23:43
Then they want state intervention, then they want socialism,
466
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4320
23:48
then they want everyone to pay for it.
467
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1880
23:50
That is so anti-American.
468
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2920
23:53
It's so anti-American.
469
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1640
23:54
And I wish that more people would recognize
470
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3680
23:58
that what made America truly great are people that take accountability
471
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6280
24:04
for both their profits and their losses.
472
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2840
24:07
That's not what winning is.
473
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1320
24:09
That's what leadership is.
474
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1720
24:11
That's what leadership is.
475
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1680
24:12
HW: Back to that theme again.
476
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24:14
So what are the world leaders saying
477
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2040
24:16
about this moment and what are they watching for?
478
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2480
24:18
IB: Well, you know, Helen, I just came from Washington,
479
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3960
24:22
where we had the 75th anniversary of NATO,
480
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3440
24:26
the strongest military alliance in the planet's history,
481
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4600
24:31
led by the United States, capably led by the United States,
482
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3520
24:34
recently expanded to include Finland and Sweden.
483
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2920
24:38
And all of the 32 members there
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3240
24:41
are committed to the future of that alliance,
485
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2800
24:44
even Hungary's Viktor Orban,
486
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1920
24:46
who has many different views
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1520
24:47
about how they should spend their money and resource.
488
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2480
24:50
But he doesn't want to go anywhere.
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24:51
They are spending more money on defense;
490
1491940
1960
24:53
23 of them are now at the two percent minimum or more
491
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4520
24:58
of defense from GDP spending.
492
1498500
2440
25:00
And they recognize that they need more resource and capacity and coordination
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4280
25:05
because of an increasingly dangerous planet.
494
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2600
25:07
So, I mean, that was a real success.
495
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2720
25:10
The summit was a real success.
496
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1840
25:12
And yet all of those leaders were deeply concerned
497
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4560
25:17
about the state of American democracy,
498
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2760
25:19
deeply concerned about what was going to happen after US elections
499
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5440
25:25
and whether they could continue to count
500
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2080
25:27
on the most powerful military in the world
501
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2880
25:30
and also their most powerful ally.
502
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2160
25:32
And that was before the assassination attempt.
503
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2960
25:35
And the notes that I've gotten just in the past hours
504
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25:38
from many of those leaders have been, “Oh my God.”
505
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2680
25:41
Like, yeah, "Number one, we think Trump is going to win.
506
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2800
25:44
Number two, we’re really worried about the future of your democracy.
507
1544100
3640
25:47
This isn't sustainable.
508
1547780
1720
25:49
Is anyone going to be able to pick up the pieces to build it back?”
509
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4600
25:54
You know, “Can you have a 9/11 response?”
510
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2760
25:57
And right now, near term, my sense is no.
511
1557500
5400
26:03
My sense is no.
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1200
26:04
I think this is going to look a lot more like January 6 than 9/11.
513
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5080
26:09
I think in the early days, you have a lot of people that are condemning it.
514
1569580
3600
26:13
And just as you did after January 6, the early days,
515
1573180
3080
26:16
a lot of people condemned January 6, Democrats and Republicans.
516
1576300
3000
26:19
But then in short order within, you know, just weeks and months,
517
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3040
26:22
and it'll be faster this time around because of the election cycle,
518
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3200
26:25
in short order, you had it politicized and weaponized.
519
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2680
26:28
You had the Democrats saying,
520
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1480
26:29
this is why Trump is no good and these people need to go to jail
521
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3320
26:33
and it's horrible.
522
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1160
26:34
And you had the Republicans saying they're patriots,
523
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2480
26:36
and you had Trump actually playing
524
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2200
26:39
a bunch of January 6 insurrectionists singing the national anthem.
525
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6040
26:45
And that he salutes while they do that.
526
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2920
26:48
And I fear that the follow-on
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4960
26:53
from the assassination attempt will be more like that,
528
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3760
26:56
where Democrats and Republicans perceive it radically differently.
529
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3720
27:00
And that that is something that the Russians
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2160
27:02
and other enemies of the United States
531
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1840
27:04
are only too happy to promote with disinformation, to weaponize.
532
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3040
27:07
The Russians have already talked about that.
533
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2080
27:09
We can get into that if you want.
534
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1640
27:11
But the rest of the world, the allies of the United States,
535
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3400
27:14
are deeply concerned
536
1634940
1200
27:16
because they need a strong and stable America.
537
1636180
4440
27:20
They don't just need a powerful America, they want a powerful America.
538
1640620
3320
27:23
They need a strong and stable America, and they don't have one.
539
1643980
3000
27:27
America's adversaries want a weak and divided America,
540
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3120
27:30
and they're getting one.
541
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1320
27:31
This is an opportunity for America's enemies.
542
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3120
27:34
And it is a deep structural concern,
543
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3040
27:38
possibly a crisis for many of America's allies.
544
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3120
27:41
HW: I mean, it's been extraordinary to me just watching this morning
545
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3200
27:44
and seeing the conspiracy theories emerge on both sides.
546
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3000
27:47
So you have Democrats worrying that, in fact,
547
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3280
27:51
this was all organized by Trump and his people.
548
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2880
27:53
And you have Republicans who think
549
1673980
1720
27:55
that this was a Democrat-organized assassination attempt.
550
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3520
27:59
The rhetoric is really intense.
551
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4240
28:03
And I think I fear, as you do,
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28:05
that it doesn't seem like anyone is going to emerge
553
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2440
28:08
to make this into a 9/11 moment of unity,
554
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2160
28:10
but in fact, that we should fear more violence.
555
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2880
28:13
IB: I mean, if I were in a position to really do something about it,
556
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3200
28:16
I would do everything I could.
557
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1480
28:17
And I do know some Americans at least that are trying.
558
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4040
28:21
But I will tell you honestly,
559
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2200
28:24
I mean, in the grand scheme of things,
560
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3200
28:27
the wind, the currents, they're in the other direction.
561
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4440
28:31
This is something that is probably going to have to get worse
562
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4680
28:36
before it gets better,
563
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1480
28:38
because people are not taking it seriously enough.
564
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3520
28:41
There are too few people that are willing to risk their careers,
565
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4840
28:46
risk their ambitions, risk even their personal safety
566
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4200
28:50
to speak up for something greater than them
567
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3000
28:53
that they believe in, for a sense of comedy
568
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3480
28:57
and nation that brings the country together
569
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2480
28:59
as opposed to divides it.
570
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1240
29:01
I don't think we're at a point where that is going to happen.
571
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29:04
HW: Let's talk about guns for a moment.
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America surely knows it has a problem.
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The US Surgeon General has declared gun violence a public health crisis.
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Yet other countries have passed gun-reform laws
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quickly after a devastating attack.
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29:16
If you think about Dunblane in Scotland
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29:18
or Christchurch in New Zealand,
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and yet America seems to experience far deadlier shootings than yesterday's
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on a daily, weekly, monthly basis.
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29:27
And yet, the shooter in this attack wasn't old enough to legally drink,
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but he got his hands on a semi-automatic rifle.
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Do you think this moment will make any difference, given who was involved?
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Do you think we will see anything related to gun control
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other than hopes and prayers?
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IB: Well, I mean, the funny thing is that the United States has had gun reform
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in the past in response to a presidential assassination attempt.
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This was Reagan back in '81, who was almost killed,
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29:59
but the White House press secretary, James Brady,
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30:01
was struck and he was confined to a wheelchair.
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30:05
After that, he devoted his life to gun control, gun reform.
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30:09
And that's what got you the Brady Bill back in,
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I think it was '94 or something like that.
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30:13
But that is not where we are now.
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30:15
That feels like ancient history.
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30:16
And right now, the United States has more guns per capita
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30:19
than any other country on the planet except Yemen.
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30:22
And Yemen is having a civil war.
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30:25
So arguably they need those guns in Yemen.
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30:28
The United States, at least so far, not so much.
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30:32
So you've got a very serious issue.
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You have people that are politicized and angry
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and prone to believe conspiracy theories.
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We're talking about, like all the media
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30:42
and social media landscape promoting that.
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30:45
And you have this enormous number of weapons,
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30:49
military-grade weapons in many cases, that are available to any average wacko.
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30:55
And they get them and they use them.
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30:57
And how many times have we heard about AR-15, AR-15?
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31:00
I mean, the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, was shot.
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31:04
And, you know, I remember what that was like for that country.
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31:08
And it was astonishing
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because it was a guy that had to make his own weapon,
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31:13
because it is impossible to buy a weapon to do that kind of damage in Japan.
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31:19
And in the United States,
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31:20
the mass shootings are just something
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31:22
that we've come to normalize and live with.
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31:25
And it's not just that.
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31:26
It's not just the political environment.
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31:28
It's also the mental health environment,
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31:31
which is worse in the United States with less effective treatment
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31:34
than in other advanced industrial economies.
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31:37
It is the fentanyl and the drug addictions and the sense of ennui,
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31:40
it's the homelessness and the helplessness,
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31:43
the perceived helplessness of the working classes
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31:47
who have been hollowed out.
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31:48
So when you put all of that together, you expect a lot more violence.
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31:52
Now, there hasn't been much political violence
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31:55
in the United States thus far in this electoral season
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31:59
despite all of that, why not?
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32:01
Well, the main reason is because the US may not take guns
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32:05
and mental health very seriously,
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32:07
but my God, they take domestic security, homeland security very seriously.
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32:11
We saw this after 9/11 when Homeland Security was stood up.
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2840
32:14
And I mean, anyone that sees the Secret Service
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32:16
that is around the president and former president,
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32:19
there's no other country in the world that has anything remotely like that.
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32:23
And it's not just that,
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32:24
it's the background checks and it's the surveillance.
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32:28
It's the intelligence.
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32:29
It's, you know, the FBI and the domestic security
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32:33
that is trying to ensure that any potential, you know,
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32:37
violent vector in the United States is neutralized
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32:41
before they can execute on a plan.
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32:44
And that's true whether we're talking about terrorism
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32:46
coming from Islamic fundamentalists or white nationalists,
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32:49
homegrown in the United States, you name it.
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32:52
And so in that regard,
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32:54
the US has put an enormous amount of resources
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32:56
in trying to contain this problem.
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32:59
You and I, I think, would agree
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1960
33:01
that a more effective way to combat the problem
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3000
33:04
would be to get the root causes,
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33:06
as opposed to waiting until you've got the wackos with the guns
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33:09
and the motivation, and then try to contain them.
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33:12
But it's not as if the United States is doing nothing.
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33:15
And the big surprise, I think, if there was a surprise, for me,
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33:19
it was not that there are people out there
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2000
33:21
that want to try to assassinate Trump, you know, or Biden for that matter.
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33:25
It is the fact that the Secret Service so clearly fell down on the job.
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5520
33:31
And that this man was able to get off six to eight shots
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4000
33:35
and actually shoot the former president in the head.
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33:38
Like, I mean, heads will roll, quite literally, for that one.
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33:44
HW: So you you brought up the shooting of Ronald Reagan,
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33:47
and Patti Davis, his daughter, actually just published an op-ed today,
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33:51
remembering the events of that weekend back in 1981
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33:54
and trying to think about how we can learn from that
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33:57
and how we can move forward.
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33:59
And I just want to quote something that she said,
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34:01
which is that she hopes "that the events this weekend change us as a country,
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34:05
shock us into remembering who we are supposed to be,
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34:07
who we are capable of being,
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1600
34:09
not people riddled with rage and reaching for weapons.
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34:12
Not people who try to influence elections with gunfire."
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34:16
So how do you rate America's chances on that?
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34:20
IB: The United States is a very resilient country with an enormous amount of wealth,
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34:25
with enormous amount of human capital,
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34:27
situated geographically in the most peaceful
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34:31
and prosperous part of the world.
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34:35
That provides great capacity to turn this around and get it right.
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34:41
But it also makes Americans, average Americans,
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34:44
feel like they're not facing much of a crisis
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34:47
until it gets really, really hot.
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34:51
And we've seen this before.
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34:54
I mean, you know, again, there have been plenty
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34:56
of assassinations and near assassinations.
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34:59
And remember the softball game, for example, where, I mean,
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35:02
that easily could have been like, large numbers of senators,
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35:05
members of Congress getting killed.
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35:08
And, you know, they got lucky but didn't change anything.
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35:13
Not only did it not lead to gun reform,
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35:14
didn’t lead to any more civility or bipartisanship in the US.
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35:18
And I fear
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35:20
that her call will be unheeded.
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35:26
That the time is not yet ripe in the United States
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5000
35:31
as much as with every sinew of my being,
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35:34
I want to say that we can do this.
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35:37
I'm telling you that it feels to me like
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35:41
the US doesn't really believe that this is a crisis yet.
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35:45
That, you know, they can elect Trump
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35:48
or they can elect Biden,
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35:49
and they can keep getting, you know, kind of worse and screwed up.
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35:52
But their own lives aren't really going to be all that affected.
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35:57
And that's a worry
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35:59
because it means that what we will need to actually eventually make a change
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36:03
and a change will eventually come,
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36:05
will need to be much more disruptive, I fear, and I do not hope.
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36:11
I fear it will be much more violent.
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36:13
That's where I think we're headed.
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HW: That is a sober note to end on,
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36:19
but thank you so much, Ian, for your time.
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It's great to know that you are tracking all of these things
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36:24
and that we will talk to you again, I'm sure, soon.
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IB: Thank you.
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